Rate It: IL-10 in 2018
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  Rate It: IL-10 in 2018
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Poll
Question: Rate It: IL-10 in 2018
#1
Safe D
 
#2
Likely D
 
#3
Lean D
 
#4
Toss Up
 
#5
Lean R
 
#6
Likely R
 
#7
Safe R
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 48

Author Topic: Rate It: IL-10 in 2018  (Read 949 times)
Mr. Illini
liberty142
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« on: August 04, 2017, 11:18:02 PM »

Is the era of the battleground 10th over? Has Trump put the final nail in the coffin?
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Holmes
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« Reply #1 on: August 04, 2017, 11:21:50 PM »

It's over. Dold doesn't even seem to be running again. Schneider wins by double digits.
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Indy Texas
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« Reply #2 on: August 04, 2017, 11:42:39 PM »

Schneider will win. If he keeps it in 2020, the Legislature will most likely rejigger it into a Likely Dem seat for the 2022-2030 cycles.
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #3 on: August 04, 2017, 11:44:17 PM »

Likely D, (closer to safe then lean) could be competitive in a more neutral environment with a strong Republican challenger and right  now neither is happening.
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Holmes
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« Reply #4 on: August 04, 2017, 11:47:13 PM »

Schneider will win. If he keeps it in 2020, the Legislature will most likely rejigger it into a Likely Dem seat for the 2022-2030 cycles.

It already is one. It was just that Dold was a good incumbent/candidate.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #5 on: August 05, 2017, 01:30:07 AM »

Schneider will win. If he keeps it in 2020, the Legislature will most likely rejigger it into a Likely Dem seat for the 2022-2030 cycles.
they could give it parts of Evanston to make it absolutely safe Dem.
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Ye We Can
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« Reply #6 on: August 05, 2017, 02:44:25 AM »

The district was drawn to be Likely D District, removing more conservative parts of Lake and Cook County,but Dold was a very good fit for it (The General Assembly drew him out after 2010).  In a different configuration in a neutral year a Republican like Dold would have a decent chance at it.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #7 on: August 05, 2017, 02:46:34 AM »

The district was drawn to be Likely D District, removing more conservative parts of Lake and Cook County,but Dold was a very good fit for it (The General Assembly drew him out after 2010).  In a different configuration in a neutral year a Republican like Dold would have a decent chance at it.
An all-Lake County CD perhaps?
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Ye We Can
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« Reply #8 on: August 05, 2017, 03:13:37 AM »

The district was drawn to be Likely D District, removing more conservative parts of Lake and Cook County,but Dold was a very good fit for it (The General Assembly drew him out after 2010).  In a different configuration in a neutral year a Republican like Dold would have a decent chance at it.
An all-Lake County CD perhaps?

The opposite, actually. Dold's strongest areas were in places like Prospect Heights, Palatine, Kenilworth (where he was from), and the Cook Suburban areas on the fringe of the district North of Evanston; these voters are Democratic in National elections but are waaay more likely to vote R for someone like Dold (classic RINO Toms). 

They got chopped off into Schakowsky's District with Evanston and parts of Chicago's Northside.
They were replaced with exurban communities in Lake County around Waukegan who were more diverse and labor friendly as to drag Dold's margins. 
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Drew
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« Reply #9 on: August 05, 2017, 06:13:35 AM »

Likely D.  Would have been Lean D with Dold running.  In a Hillary midterm this could have been a Tossup.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #10 on: August 05, 2017, 08:15:18 AM »

Tilt D
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UncleSam
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« Reply #11 on: August 05, 2017, 11:22:04 AM »

Likely D but close to Safe (and just straight Safe unless a strong challenger announces). Schneider won't lose to a wave insurance candidate lol
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PragmaticPopulist
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« Reply #12 on: August 05, 2017, 11:42:19 AM »

Likely D. I believe the right kind of Republican (looking at RINO Tom) could win it in a good R election year.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #13 on: August 05, 2017, 12:00:11 PM »

Appreciate the shoutouts. Smiley

http://statisticalatlas.com/congressional-district/Illinois/District-10/Overview

This district is now only 60.6% White.  The median household income is a very impressive $70,700 ... but that puts it below places like Park Ridge ($87.1k) and not that much higher than the Chicagoland area as a whole ($61.2k); I'm guessing those numbers were closer to 75% and $90,000 (in today's dollars) 10-15 years ago.  This is not the same district that it was when it was a battleground, let alone a Republican-leaning district.  Just doing some simple math, it takes a TINY defection of "RINO Tom Republicans" for it to tip into Democratic hands.  In other words, even if you kept 85% of former Republican downballot voters, it might not be enough.  Very heavy lean D, but not entirely because of the reasons so often talked about (i.e., "modern GOP scares off moderate Repubs").
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MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #14 on: August 05, 2017, 12:44:36 PM »

Schneider will finally win a midterm.
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SATW
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« Reply #15 on: August 05, 2017, 02:36:51 PM »

I like the GOP candidate, but he's got an uphill climb in this race. Likely D.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #16 on: August 05, 2017, 02:42:52 PM »

The district was drawn to be Likely D District, removing more conservative parts of Lake and Cook County,but Dold was a very good fit for it (The General Assembly drew him out after 2010).  In a different configuration in a neutral year a Republican like Dold would have a decent chance at it.
An all-Lake County CD perhaps?

The opposite, actually. Dold's strongest areas were in places like Prospect Heights, Palatine, Kenilworth (where he was from), and the Cook Suburban areas on the fringe of the district North of Evanston; these voters are Democratic in National elections but are waaay more likely to vote R for someone like Dold (classic RINO Toms). 

They got chopped off into Schakowsky's District with Evanston and parts of Chicago's Northside.
They were replaced with exurban communities in Lake County around Waukegan who were more diverse and labor friendly as to drag Dold's margins. 
I see where you're coming from. But wouldn't Dold be more secure in a CD that has more exurban, very ancestral R parts of Chicagoland? Like Lake County, and part of McHenry?
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #17 on: August 05, 2017, 03:17:38 PM »

Safe D
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #18 on: August 05, 2017, 03:41:29 PM »

Safe D.  It's a Trump midterm in a district Clinton won by almost 30% points.  The only way a Republican wins is if Alexi Giannoulias is the Democratic nominee. 
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Cactus Jack
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« Reply #19 on: August 05, 2017, 04:46:28 PM »

Sadly, the era of Dold-Schneider is gone. IL-10 is probably never going Republican again.
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Lord Admirale
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« Reply #20 on: August 05, 2017, 05:26:59 PM »

Its PVI is D+10, so likely D.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #21 on: August 05, 2017, 06:01:44 PM »

How is it anything but Safe Democratic? Anything where Trump only got 32% of the vote is way off the board.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #22 on: August 05, 2017, 06:04:04 PM »

Likely D, and that's being generous to Republicans. People who think that the GOP could have easily won this district if Clinton had won are kidding themselves, though.
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Skunk
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« Reply #23 on: August 05, 2017, 06:13:32 PM »

Likely to Safe D.
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Ye We Can
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« Reply #24 on: August 05, 2017, 07:59:25 PM »

The district was drawn to be Likely D District, removing more conservative parts of Lake and Cook County,but Dold was a very good fit for it (The General Assembly drew him out after 2010).  In a different configuration in a neutral year a Republican like Dold would have a decent chance at it.
An all-Lake County CD perhaps?

The opposite, actually. Dold's strongest areas were in places like Prospect Heights, Palatine, Kenilworth (where he was from), and the Cook Suburban areas on the fringe of the district North of Evanston; these voters are Democratic in National elections but are waaay more likely to vote R for someone like Dold (classic RINO Toms). 

They got chopped off into Schakowsky's District with Evanston and parts of Chicago's Northside.
They were replaced with exurban communities in Lake County around Waukegan who were more diverse and labor friendly as to drag Dold's margins. 
I see where you're coming from. But wouldn't Dold be more secure in a CD that has more exurban, very ancestral R parts of Chicagoland? Like Lake County, and part of McHenry?

It's a catch 22 now.  Some areas in Lake county are no longer even ancestrally Republican because of increased diversity and immigration/emigration. That is unlike the fringe cook suburbs which while trended D nationally remain demographically similar to what they were when Rockefeller R's were still a thing.

Not to mention cutting into rural Lake and McHenry to make a more R leaning 10th wouldn't make much sense for Republicans as it would endanger Hultgren in the neighboring 14th because those areas make up a lot of R margins there.

An R gerrymander would have a district centered on lower North Shore, straddling the Cook-Lake county line just North of Evanston, including Palatine, and halving the Waukegan area between the 14th and the 10th.

The new 10th would still vote D nationally but would be way more likely to vote someone like Dold in at the Congressional level.

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