Ecuador General Discussion

[Sir John Johns]

Because there have been already major developments since Lenín Moreno’s inauguration as new president on May 24, I’ve decided to create a thread dedicated to the fascinating world of Ecuadorian politics. Hopefully, I will update it on a frequent basis.

The last weeks have been marked by the growing rift in the ruling Alianza PAIS (AP) between Moreno supporters and followers of former president Rafael Correa, a rift that culminated the day before yesterday when Moreno decided to strip Vice President Jorge Glas (a Correa loyalist in office since 2013) of all his duties.

Glas will however remain in office only because the president hasn’t the constitutional power to force the vice president out of office. As Glas has indicated he had no intention to resign his post, the only way for Moreno to get definitely rid of Glas is the impeachment of the vice president through a supermajority vote in the National Assembly.

The decision of sidelining the vice president wasn’t totally unexpected as Glas has been embroiled since weeks ago now in the Odebrecht case: in June, Glas’s own uncle, Ricardo Rivera, was arrested in connection with the corruption scandal and, only few hours ago, the Brazilian newspaper O Globo revealed that Odebrecht had paid Glas $14 million between 2012 and 2016.

In last June, the opposition already attempted to launch an impeachment procedure against Glas on the grounds of corruption but the AP-controlled National Assembly ultimately rejected it.

Glas’s downfall was however precipitated by the publication on August 2 of a letter in which he harshly criticized the political agenda followed by Moreno and echoed various criticisms expressed recently by Rafael Correa – who is currently residing in Belgium but continues to comment on Ecuadorian politics news by using Twitter – towards his successor.

Correa and his supporters mostly disagreed with the conciliatory stance displayed by the new president toward the opposition (for example, Moreno recently met with several prominent opposition leaders to discuss topics like drug use among Ecuadorian youth or fight against corruption) and his call to a national dialogue. Correa was especially enraged by a meeting between Moreno and the leaders of the CONAIE, the major indigenous organization of the country that had faced many legal challenges under Correa.

The former president (and later Glas in his letter) also denounced the appointment of Antonio Intriago Williams at the head of the National Electric Company (CNEL), arguing that Intriago is a stooge of former president (1996-1997) Abdalá Bucaram, a deranged populist clown whose short term in office was marred by gross incompetence and widespread corruption. In his letter, Glas denounced a supposed alliance between Moreno and Bucaram which according to him will led to the establishment of a state of “institutionalized corruption”.

Bucaram, who was indicted in Ecuador for corruption, returned in his country in last June after a 20-year-long self-imposed exile and escaped jail only because the corruption case had lapsed due to the statute of limitation. He apparently plans to run in the 2019 local elections either for mayor of Guayaquil (a post he briefly held in the 1980s) or for prefect of Guayas province, but I digress.

Correa and his followers also disagree with Moreno over the latter’s willingness to loosen government control on state-owned medias and on the president’s decision to rise Ecuador's oil production, in contradiction with the OPEC commitments. For his part, Moreno has criticized the former administration’s handling of the economy, denouncing notably the excessive amount of external debt accumulated under Correa and labeling the economic situation inherited from Correa as “critical”. Correa responded to these criticisms in a series of bitter tweets, calling his successor a “mediocre” and “disloyal” man who is “betraying” his legacy and should not criticized the record of a politician belonging to the same party. Meanwhile, in his letter, Glas has accused Moreno of having falsifying numbers on external debt possibly in order to implement a package of austerity measures.



Despite this squabbles inside the AP, Moreno continues so far to enjoy a very high popularity, receiving an approval rate of 70.3% according to a survey conducted between 1 and 15 July.

Moreno is also helped by the divisions that continue to plague the right-wing opposition: last month, the alliance between the two major conservative parties, CREO and SUMA, was de facto terminated after the SUMA assemblymen voted in favor of an AP-sponsored bill (which was previously approved by Ecuadorian voters in a referendum on last February) preventing tax haven companies owners from holding elective office. CREO was opposed to the bill because it would prevented its leader, Guillermo Lasso (a banker who owns several companies in Panamá), from running again for president.

[Sir John Johns]

The vendetta between President Lenín Moreno and his predecessor Rafael Correa further escalated as an Ecuadorian judge has issued an international arrest warrant for the former president. Correa, who is currently residing in Belgium, has indeed refused to return to Ecuador to comply with Judge Daniella Camacho’s order to appear every two weeks before a Quito court. Ecuadorian justice is currently investigating possible involvement of Correa in the 2012 failed abduction of opponent Fernando Balda in Colombia.

A former member of the Alianza Pais turned into an alternate deputy for the Patriotic Society Party (PSP, ‘right-wing’ populist) and a rabid opponent to Correa, Balda fled to Colombia in 2009 to escape indictment in a defamation case against Óscar Herrera, a senior official close to Correa whom Balda had accused of heading a ‘mafia’. While in Colombia, Balda became active in right-wing circles, especially in the Fundación Internacionalismo Democrático (headed by Álvaro Uribe), and established personal links with José Obdulio Gaviria, considered as the ideologue of Uribismo.

On August 13, 2012, while in Bogotá, Balda was forced to climb into a truck by unknown individuals. The police was however called by a taxi driver, who had witnessed the scene, and a high-speed chase ensued ending with the abandonment of the truck with Balda inside by the abductors who vanished. Balda was nonetheless expelled from Colombia to Ecuador in October 2012 and served a prison sentence for libel.

While in Colombia, five people were rapidly arrested and sentenced for Balda’s attempted abduction, in Ecuador the case, opened after a complaint by Balda, didn’t progress at all until recent months when President Moreno ordered the declassification of information related to activities of the National Intelligence Office (Senain), leading to the arrest of three intelligence officers and of former head of the Senain Pablo Romero.

Another inquiry, potentially devastating for Correa and his former administration, is also currently ongoing to investigate the circumstances of the 2010 murder of General Jorge Gabela, a former head of the Ecuadorian Air Force. The murder was firstly ruled as perpetrated by common thieves despite the objections of Gabela’s family, which claim that the general was actually the victim of a conspiracy as Gabela strongly opposed the purchase by Ecuadorian Air Force of Indian Dhruv helicopters arguing they were of low quality and would be unsuited for high-altitude flights. It turns out that Gabela was right as, since 2016, the Dhruv helicopters are grounded and for sale after four of them crashed killing three military. The case has been so reopened and, few days ago, Moreno has ordered the declassification of information related to Gabela’s murder.

In any case, Correa, who is unable to run again for president since a referendum held in last February reintroduced term limits for elected officials, claims he is the victim of a conspiracy led by Moreno, who is, according to the former president, turning Ecuador into a ‘banana republic’. As he would probably not willingly return to Ecuador, Correa has said he doesn’t discarded applying for political asylum in Belgium. If, somehow, the Belgian government agrees to the extradition of Correa, the former president would landed in the same jail than his former vice president, Jorge Glas, who is currently serving a sentence for corruption.

The issuing of an international warrant for Correa has been heavily criticized by Ecuador’s closest allies, Venezuela and Bolivia. Nicolás Maduro notably denounced the ‘persecution’ against the ‘authentic leaders of Latin America’: ‘firstly Cristina, then Lula and now Correa’. For his part, Evo Morales has criticized what he called the ‘politicization’ of Ecuadorian justice and U.S. meddling in Ecuadorian affairs to throw ‘an innocent’ in jail. Moreno replied in a tweet that “I have always been respectful of the institutions of sister countries, especially those of Venezuela and Bolivia. I demand the same for Ecuador. Unlike the latest years, there is today freedom, respect and independence of justice and all state functions.’ The Ecuadorian government also has sent a formal note of protest to Bolivia and Venezuela.

[Sir John Johns]

Diplomatic tensions between Quito and Caracas continue to increase after President Lenín Moreno has questioned “the way democracy is in operation” in Venezuela, calling it a “somewhat bizarre [democracy], without the participation of the opposition”. He has however reiterated his opposition to a military intervention against Maduro government. Venezuela has replied by delivering a letter of protest to Ecuador’s chargé d’affaires in Caracas (the inauguration of Ecuador’s new ambassador to Venezuela has been suspended by Quito) denouncing Ecuador’s “interference” in Venezuela’s internal affairs and indicating that the people that Moreno referred to as opposition are involved in “flagrant and notorious acts of political violence including terrorist actions in order to try to disrupt constitutional order in Venezuela” . In that same letter, Venezuela government blamed Moreno for having met with Mike Pence in Quito last month.

Another sign of a possible new diplomatic orientation of Ecuador is the demand made by Moreno that the Union of South American Nations (UNASUR) surrenders its headquarters building in Quito to the Ecuadorian government. While reiterating his support for South American integration, Moreno has called the UNASUR a “good idea which has unfortunately not crystallized due to human and ideological failures” and “a new white elephant which will have to consider another destination”. He labeled as “absurd” the fact that “a building that has cost several tens of millions of dollars has no use” and has announced during a trip in Latacunga, Cotopaxi (central Sierra) that the UNASUR headquarters building will be allocate to the Indigenous Nationalities and Peoples University of Ecuador. The announcement took place at the same time that the formalization of the creation of a National Office for Intercultural Bilingual Education to permit indigenous children to learn to read and write in their native language. The move was well received by the CONAIE, the country’s main indigenous organization.

[WMS]

This is very interesting. Please continue.

[Sir John Johns]

In Ecuador, Rafael Correa’s attempt to build a new party is turning into a farce making a potential political comeback more and more unlikely. Since recently unable to return to Ecuador where he could face justice, the former president has indeed been officially expelled from the ranks of the National Agreement Movement (MANA), the party with which he and his followers had signed an agreement with in early 2018 in order to rebuild a Correista political organization. MANA was founded in 2008 but de-registered several years later due to weak electoral results.

In a press conference, the leadership of the MANA, including its president and founder Víctor Hugo Erazo, denounced the 'autocratic gestures' of Correa and his supporters to 'take by force' the MANA. Declaring he 'became aware of the scandals that occurred [under the Correa administration] like the kidnapping of Fernando Balda, the murder of General Jorge Gabela and the corruption cases', Erazo labeled the ten-year period of Correa rule as a period when 'Ecuador lived under dictatorship and autocracy'. Consequently the MANA leadership pronounced the expulsion from the party of Correa and several other leading Correaistas like Ricardo Patiño, Gabriela Rivadeneira or Marcela Aguiñaga. The expulsion remains symbolic as the MANA is still trying to get re-register to participate in the upcoming local elections. On a side note, Erazo, the leader of the MANA, has had a quite weird political career as, in 2014, he was the candidate of the PSP (also the party of Fernando Balda) to the post of mayor of Quito against the Correista incumbent mayor.

Correa responded in a tweet
https://twitter.com/MashiRafael/status/1027227606557646853

'I'm so important that I have been 'expelled' from a movement that still has no members. Only 'La Bosta' can cover something like that'.

Of course, there is a dissident faction of the MANA, led by self-proclaimed legal representative Juan Pablo Arévalo, which claimed to be the only legitimate MANA and renewed its support to the alliance with Rafael Correa and his supporters. Both factions claim to have gathered enough signatures to register as a legally recognized political movement, so it will be the task of the CNE to decide which faction will be the legal holder of the MANA name and if they will be able to run in the next local elections.

[Sir John Johns]

Like several other Latin American countries (Colombia, Brazil, Peru, Chile, Mexico), Ecuador is currently facing the worst-ever refugee crisis in Latin America’s history as hundreds of thousands of people are fleeing economic collapse and political crisis in Venezuela to seek refuge in the other countries of the continent.

According to the UNHCR, since the beginning of 2018, some 547,000 Venezuelan refugees have entered Ecuadorian territory, generally at foot, coming from Colombia, at a daily average of about 3,000 people. The recent inauguration of Iván Duque (and the expected tightening of immigration policies in Colombia) seems to have further accelerated the influx of Venezuelan migrants in Ecuador: in the sole first week of August, some 30,000 Venezuelans have entered Ecuador at a pace of 4,000 per day. Ecuadorian immigration services are overran and the Ecuadorian government has declared state of emergency in three provinces (Carchi, Pichincha and El Oro) to allocate more resources to address the ongoing refugee crisis.

Most of Venezuelan refugees in Ecuador don’t stay for long in the country and move to Peru and Chile. However, in late June, it was estimated that 164,441 Venezuelan nationals were permanently residing in Ecuador up from 93,139 in 2017 and only 8,901 in 2015. Consequently, Venezuelans have now displaced Colombians as the largest foreign community in Ecuador as, according to the 2010 census, there were 89,931 Colombian-born people residing in Ecuador. This has possibly change but, before the broke-out of the Venezuelan migrants crisis, Ecuador was the South American country with the largest number of refugees (almost exclusively Colombians) living on its soil.

Yesterday, after a meeting between Lenín Moreno and a group of Venezuelan refugees, the Ecuadorian government announced several decisions related to immigration policy. On one hand, Venezuela refugees currently living on Ecuador’s soil will have access to all social services and will be regularized. On the other hand, it was also decided that an ID card or an Andean card will be no longer sufficient for a Venezuelan citizen to enter Ecuador and travel freely throughout the Ecuadorian territory. Considering that the ID cards are too easily falsifiable, the minister of Interior announced that, starting from tomorrow, only Venezuelans carrying a passport will be permit to enter Ecuador; firstly announced as concerning every foreign citizen, it was later specified that the measure will only concern Venezuelan nationals.

Officially taken to “guarantee both the security of Venezuelan citizens and the security of [Ecuador’s] territory” and to fight human trafficking, the measure is clearly aiming at drastically reducing the legal Venezuelan immigration to Ecuador. Indeed, passports are very hard to obtain from Venezuelan administration due to considerable delays, shortage of paper and, above all, the countless bribes demanded by the Venezuelan public servants. The measure was denounced not only by the human rights NGOs and several members of the Catholic Church but also by the National Ombudsman, which claimed that such measure – especially the fact it will only concern Venezuelan citizens – is probably illegal and unconstitutional. It has been also said that such measure would block numerous Venezuelan refugees at the Colombian border, such possibly creating a diplomatic rift with Bogotá.