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Author Topic: Current 2017/2018 Gubernatorial Predictions?  (Read 2002 times)
slightlyburnttoast
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Political Matrix
E: -5.42, S: -5.43

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« on: August 06, 2017, 03:08:41 pm »
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Closest races: NH, MD, ME, FL, AK, VT
Dem. pickups: MI, ME, FL, NM, IL
Rep. pickups: AK

Post-2018 map of governorships:



NH, AK, and FL could really go either way though.
« Last Edit: August 06, 2017, 03:41:54 pm by slightlyburnttoast »Logged

Endorsements:

'18 MI Gov: Gretchen Whitmer (D)
'18 MI Sen: Debbie Stabenow (D, inc.)
'18 MI 12th: Debbie Dingell (D, inc.)

'17 NJ Gov: Phil Murphy (D)
'17 VA Gov: Ralph Northam (D)
'17 AL Sen: Doug Jones (D)


Current 2020 Favorites: Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI), Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH), Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA)
Cory Booker
olawakandi
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« Reply #1 on: August 06, 2017, 03:45:40 pm »
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Dems will win KS or WI
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President:
S-NJ Cory Booker
P-OH Tim Ryan

Gubernatorial election
S-NJ Phil Murphy
P-VA Ralph Northam

Senatorial election
S-NV Rosen
L-MI Kid Rock😂
S-OH Sherrod Brown
TP-AZ Kelli Ward elected
Game Moderator 1184AZ
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« Reply #2 on: August 06, 2017, 05:14:49 pm »
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90% Safe
60% Likley
30% Lean
Green Tossup



Tossups map: Dems +4 (NJ, NM, ME, IL)
No Tossups (KS, MI go GOP, CT, NV, FL, WI, NH, VA go Dem. ) for Dem +8
« Last Edit: August 06, 2017, 05:16:42 pm by Progressive Democrat »Logged
MillennialMAModerate
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« Reply #3 on: August 06, 2017, 06:28:33 pm »
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I think it's incredible that in the most Democratic state in the nation, in a Mid-Term that by all accounts will be heavily Democratic .... a Republican Governor is virtually assured of reelection
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John Fitzgerald Kennedy. The Presidential GOAT.
Cory Booker
olawakandi
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« Reply #4 on: August 07, 2017, 04:28:25 am »
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My prediction: FL, IL, KS, ME, MD, NH, NM and WI flips

D+8
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President:
S-NJ Cory Booker
P-OH Tim Ryan

Gubernatorial election
S-NJ Phil Murphy
P-VA Ralph Northam

Senatorial election
S-NV Rosen
L-MI Kid Rock😂
S-OH Sherrod Brown
TP-AZ Kelli Ward elected
Not_Madigan
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E: 1.68, S: -5.04

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« Reply #5 on: August 07, 2017, 09:35:21 am »
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I'm making one prediction. 

IL will be Tilt R once Pritzker wins the nom.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #6 on: August 07, 2017, 09:42:02 am »
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No, it won't, this race won't be a run away race, but even Pritzker can beat Rauner by 5, in a Trump down year.
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President:
S-NJ Cory Booker
P-OH Tim Ryan

Gubernatorial election
S-NJ Phil Murphy
P-VA Ralph Northam

Senatorial election
S-NV Rosen
L-MI Kid Rock😂
S-OH Sherrod Brown
TP-AZ Kelli Ward elected
STEVE BULLOCK FOR PRESIDENT
Admiral President
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E: -1.81, S: -4.00

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« Reply #7 on: August 07, 2017, 07:11:46 pm »
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2017:
New Jersey: Likely Democratic Pickup
Virginia: Lean Democratic Hold

2018:



Maine will be Republican if Susan Collins runs. Nevada, Florida, Kansas, and Connecticut are a bit iffy in my mind.
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Endorsements:

AL-Sen: Doug Jones (D)
AZ-Sen: Kyrsten Sinema (D)
CA-Gov: John Chiang (D)
GA-Gov: Stacey Evans (D)
MA-Gov: Charlie Baker (R)
MA-08: Stephen Lynch (D)
MT-Sen: Jon Tester (D)
NJ-Gov: Gina Genovese (I)
NJ-05: Josh Gottheimer (D)
NJ-11: Mikie Sherrill (D)
NY-Gov: Andrew Cuomo (D)
NY-02: Peter T. King (R)
NYC Mayor: Bo Dietl (I)
SC-Gov: James Smith (D)
TX-Sen: Beto O'Rourke (D)
VA-Gov: Ralph Northam (D)
WV-Sen: Joe Manchin (D)

First Degree Burns
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« Reply #8 on: August 08, 2017, 06:34:21 pm »
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90% Safe
60% Likley
30% Lean
Green Tossup



Tossups map: Dems +4 (NJ, NM, ME, IL)
No Tossups (KS, MI go GOP, CT, NV, FL, WI, NH, VA go Dem. ) for Dem +8

Don't let me suffer through another Governor Malloy. My god
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I take pragmatic stances on everything.
Not_Madigan
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E: 1.68, S: -5.04

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« Reply #9 on: August 08, 2017, 06:34:49 pm »
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90% Safe
60% Likley
30% Lean
Green Tossup



Tossups map: Dems +4 (NJ, NM, ME, IL)
No Tossups (KS, MI go GOP, CT, NV, FL, WI, NH, VA go Dem. ) for Dem +8

Don't let me suffer through another Governor Malloy. My god

Please let Rauner survive PLEASE!
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Game Moderator 1184AZ
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« Reply #10 on: August 08, 2017, 06:37:49 pm »
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90% Safe
60% Likley
30% Lean
Green Tossup



Tossups map: Dems +4 (NJ, NM, ME, IL)
No Tossups (KS, MI go GOP, CT, NV, FL, WI, NH, VA go Dem. ) for Dem +8

Don't let me suffer through another Governor Malloy. My god
He has announced his retirement already.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/04/13/politics/dannel-malloy-connecticut-reelection-2018/index.html
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Governor-elect Ed Gillespie
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« Reply #11 on: August 08, 2017, 06:39:44 pm »
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90% Safe
60% Likley
30% Lean
Green Tossup



Tossups map: Dems +4 (NJ, NM, ME, IL)
No Tossups (KS, MI go GOP, CT, NV, FL, WI, NH, VA go Dem. ) for Dem +8

Don't let me suffer through another Governor Malloy. My god
He has announced his retirement already.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/04/13/politics/dannel-malloy-connecticut-reelection-2018/index.html
I think he meant someone like Malloy
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Moderate Republican

I never said this is normal, and please save the stupid "you worship him" s***. I don't even support him anymore. I just think it's idiotic to complain and make a huge deal out of confusing two people.

Seriously, I have said a bunch of times that I don't support him and that I will vote for his primary challenger (if he doesn't get impeached first).
MT Treasurer
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« Reply #12 on: August 08, 2017, 06:44:08 pm »
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2018 "Endorsements":

MT-SEN: Matt Rosendale (R)
MO-SEN: Josh Hawley (R)
WV-SEN: Evan Jenkins (R)
NH-GOV: Stefany Shaheen (D)
NH-02: Annie Kuster (D)

Wulfric seems to just LOVE Tester.
xīngkěruž
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E: -5.63, S: -6.13

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« Reply #13 on: August 08, 2017, 07:20:32 pm »
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With no toss-ups, Walker wins in AK, Democrats win KS, MI, NV, and NH, Republicans win CT, FL, and MD. D+7.
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Not_Madigan
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E: 1.68, S: -5.04

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« Reply #14 on: August 08, 2017, 07:24:59 pm »
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As of 8/8/17





Note on IL:  I have 3 ratings for IL, the one in the picture is for Kennedy.

Pritzker:  Tilt R
Kennedy:  Tossup
ANY OTHER DEMOCRAT:  Lean D
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« Reply #15 on: August 08, 2017, 07:35:21 pm »
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D+7
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 Endorsements
VA Governor Ralph Northam
NJ Governor Phil Murphy
CA Governor Gavin Newsom
AL Senate Doug Jones
2020 Presidential Al Franken, Elizabeth Warren and Steve Bullock
mileslunn
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« Reply #16 on: August 10, 2017, 11:58:41 pm »
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D+7

According to Trump all should be dark blue as his popularity is massive, he is the most yugely popular president ever.  The polls and news about his unpopularity are all fake.  And off course any state where the GOP doesn't win was because it was rigged or illegals voter en masse.

That being said in all seriousness generally sounds about right, my only question is with Wisconsin as I thought Scott Walker was not that popular, but is he term limited?  Kansas is another interesting one as although a staunchly GOP state, Sam Brownback has the lowest approval rating of any governor, but I don't believe he is running again.  Connecticut I thought was vulnerable although maybe the anti-Trump sentiment will save the Democrats there.  Nevada I also thought was fairly solid GOP in the next state election as well.
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Castro
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« Reply #17 on: August 11, 2017, 08:49:13 pm »
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No tossup map, lighter shades = pickups:



2017: D+1 (NJ)
2018: D+6 (NM, IL, ME, MI, FL, NV)
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Assemblyman ReaganClinton
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« Reply #18 on: August 12, 2017, 09:55:30 am »
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Tossups:
VA, NM, NH, and MI lean D
FL and NV lean R
AK leans I

I would like to mention that on the Wikipedia page for the New Mexico gubernatorial race, it mentions Gary Johnson as a potential Libertarian candidate. I don't think my prediction would change if he ran, but there's a small chance he could change things.
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Not_Madigan
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E: 1.68, S: -5.04

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« Reply #19 on: August 12, 2017, 11:33:47 am »
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Tossups:
VA, NM, NH, and MI lean D
FL and NV lean R
AK leans I

I would like to mention that on the Wikipedia page for the New Mexico gubernatorial race, it mentions Gary Johnson as a potential Libertarian candidate. I don't think my prediction would change if he ran, but there's a small chance he could change things.

Ok, why is IL Lean R?  Even I don't have IL as Lean R and i'm 100% in for Rauner.
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« Reply #20 on: August 12, 2017, 12:00:00 pm »
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D+7

According to Trump all should be dark blue as his popularity is massive, he is the most yugely popular president ever.  The polls and news about his unpopularity are all fake.  And off course any state where the GOP doesn't win was because it was rigged or illegals voter en masse.

That being said in all seriousness generally sounds about right, my only question is with Wisconsin as I thought Scott Walker was not that popular, but is he term limited?  Kansas is another interesting one as although a staunchly GOP state, Sam Brownback has the lowest approval rating of any governor, but I don't believe he is running again.  Connecticut I thought was vulnerable although maybe the anti-Trump sentiment will save the Democrats there.  Nevada I also thought was fairly solid GOP in the next state election as well.
Walker's approval rating have recovered a bit but hes definitely not safe so thats why I have it only has likely republican
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 Endorsements
VA Governor Ralph Northam
NJ Governor Phil Murphy
CA Governor Gavin Newsom
AL Senate Doug Jones
2020 Presidential Al Franken, Elizabeth Warren and Steve Bullock
Old Liner
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« Reply #21 on: August 12, 2017, 05:37:44 pm »
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Prediction: Ds pick up FL, IL, KS, ME, MD, MI, NV, NH, NJ, NM, OH, and WI. D+12 (yes, I am going out on a limb and looking like a hack). Walker runs for reelection as an Indy and wins.
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Bring back the big tent
Endorsements
AZ-SEN - Kyrsten Sinema
FL-SEN - Bill Nelson
FL-GOV - Gwen Graham
GA-GOV - Stacey Evans
MD-06 - Aruna Miller
MD-GOV - Rushern Baker or Kevin Kamenetz
MI-SEN - Debbie Stabenow
MN-SEN - Amy Klobuchar
MN-GOV - Tim Walz
NV-SEN - Jacky Rosen
NJ-GOV - Phil Murphy
OH-SEN - Sherrod Brown
VA-SEN - Tim Kaine
VA-GOV - Ralph Northam
WI-SEN - Tammy Baldwin
WI-GOV - Kathleen Vinehout
Left-Libertarian
canis
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« Reply #22 on: August 12, 2017, 08:32:52 pm »
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Prediction: Ds pick up FL, IL, KS, ME, MD, MI, NV, NH, NJ, NM, OH, and WI. D+12 (yes, I am going out on a limb and looking like a hack). Walker runs for reelection as an Indy and wins.
Bill or Scott Walker?
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 Endorsements
VA Governor Ralph Northam
NJ Governor Phil Murphy
CA Governor Gavin Newsom
AL Senate Doug Jones
2020 Presidential Al Franken, Elizabeth Warren and Steve Bullock
Old Liner
PragmaticPopulist
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« Reply #23 on: August 12, 2017, 11:08:55 pm »
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Prediction: Ds pick up FL, IL, KS, ME, MD, MI, NV, NH, NJ, NM, OH, and WI. D+12 (yes, I am going out on a limb and looking like a hack). Walker runs for reelection as an Indy and wins.
Bill or Scott Walker?
Bill. I should have clarified that.
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Bring back the big tent
Endorsements
AZ-SEN - Kyrsten Sinema
FL-SEN - Bill Nelson
FL-GOV - Gwen Graham
GA-GOV - Stacey Evans
MD-06 - Aruna Miller
MD-GOV - Rushern Baker or Kevin Kamenetz
MI-SEN - Debbie Stabenow
MN-SEN - Amy Klobuchar
MN-GOV - Tim Walz
NV-SEN - Jacky Rosen
NJ-GOV - Phil Murphy
OH-SEN - Sherrod Brown
VA-SEN - Tim Kaine
VA-GOV - Ralph Northam
WI-SEN - Tammy Baldwin
WI-GOV - Kathleen Vinehout
Assemblyman ReaganClinton
ReaganClinton20XX
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« Reply #24 on: August 15, 2017, 04:31:13 pm »
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Tossups:
VA, NM, NH, and MI lean D
FL and NV lean R
AK leans I

I would like to mention that on the Wikipedia page for the New Mexico gubernatorial race, it mentions Gary Johnson as a potential Libertarian candidate. I don't think my prediction would change if he ran, but there's a small chance he could change things.

Ok, why is IL Lean R?  Even I don't have IL as Lean R and i'm 100% in for Rauner.
In hindsight, I would've put it as a tossup, but Kennedy doesn't instill much confidence within the Democratic party, and there aren't many other Democratic candidates at the moment, which is why I gave it the slight R tilt.
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