Current 2017/2018 Gubernatorial Predictions?
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  Current 2017/2018 Gubernatorial Predictions?
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Latest 2018 Predictions (Highest Scores)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
jaichind (L-NY)MapProfile 11-06 8 D +8 19 (-7) 17 (+8) 0 (-1) 0
PragPop (D-MD)MapProfile 07-01 8 D +7 19 (-7) 16 (+7) 1 (0) 0
Republican95 (R-MS)MapProfile 10-30 3 D +6 21 (-5) 15 (+6) 0 (-1) 0
Aguagon (D-AZ)MapProfile 11-05 1 D +8 19 (-7) 17 (+8) 0 (-1) 0
rrussom1 (D-NC)MapProfile 11-06 6 D +9 18 (-8) 18 (+9) 0 (-1) 0
Checkard (D-OH)MapProfile 04-22 1 D +7 20 (-6) 16 (+7) 0 (-1) 0
Politician (--MA)MapProfile 11-02 111 D +10 17 (-9) 19 (+10) 0 (-1) 0
Castro2020 (I-CT)MapProfile 11-03 10 D +11 16 (-10) 20 (+11) 0 (-1) 0
bluesolid (D-NY)MapProfile 11-04 21 D +10 17 (-9) 19 (+10) 0 (-1) 0
tmthforu94 (D-MO)MapProfile 11-05 16 D +8 19 (-7) 17 (+8) 0 (-1) 0
Latest 2018 Predictions (Most Recent Entries)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
jastone0493 (D-CO)MapProfile 11-06 5 D +9 18 (-8) 18 (+9) 0 (-1) 0
Lechasseur (R-FL)MapProfile 11-06 5 D +4 23 (-3) 13 (+4) 0 (-1) 0
Liberalrocks (D-CA)MapProfile 11-06 3 D +10 17 (-9) 19 (+10) 0 (-1) 0
AntonioV (D-CA)MapProfile 11-06 7 D +9 18 (-8) 18 (+9) 0 (-1) 0
SecureAmerica (R-NM)MapProfile 11-06 1 D +7 20 (-6) 16 (+7) 0 (-1) 0
tomhguy (L-GBR)MapProfile 11-06 1 D +8 19 (-7) 17 (+8) 0 (-1) 0
OctoCube (R-MA)MapProfile 11-06 2 D +7 20 (-6) 16 (+7) 0 (-1) 0
Impartial (D-NY)MapProfile 11-06 4 D +10 17 (-9) 19 (+10) 0 (-1) 0
WaterHazard (I-IL)MapProfile 11-06 5 D +9 18 (-8) 18 (+9) 0 (-1) 0
Horatii (R-MA)MapProfile 11-06 14 D +8 19 (-7) 17 (+8) 0 (-1) 0
Latest 2018 Predictions (Most Recent Comments)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
deleteduser (I-WV)
by deleteduser on 2019-01-24 @ 09:36:01
Map 11-02 65 D +9 18 (-8) 18 (+9) 0 (-1) 5
Grassr00ts (R-IL)
by Grassr00ts on 2018-11-06 @ 22:11:10
MapProfile 10-31 1 D +5 21 (-5) 14 (+5) 1 (0) 1
edwardsna (R-NY)
by deleteduser on 2018-11-06 @ 03:33:00
MapProfile 11-05 6 D +6 21 (-5) 15 (+6) 0 (-1) 1
Beaver2 (D-VA)
by darthpi on 2018-11-05 @ 21:01:35
MapProfile 11-05 1 D +5 22 (-4) 14 (+5) 0 (-1) 1
darthpi (D-PA)
by darthpi on 2018-11-05 @ 20:46:09
MapProfile 11-05 26 D +11 16 (-10) 20 (+11) 0 (-1) 1
man_of_honor885 ()
by deleteduser on 2018-10-26 @ 21:41:27
Map 10-08 2 D +9 18 (-8) 18 (+9) 0 (-1) 2
edwardsna (R-NY)
by deleteduser on 2018-10-26 @ 21:37:20
MapProfile 10-07 5 D +7 20 (-6) 16 (+7) 0 (-1) 3
BushCountry (I-IN)
by KnuxMaster368 on 2018-09-13 @ 10:53:27
MapProfile 09-13 21 D +7 19 (-7) 16 (+7) 1 (0) 1
edwardsna (R-NY)
by deleteduser on 2018-08-15 @ 04:29:01
MapProfile 08-13 4 D +4 23 (-3) 13 (+4) 0 (-1) 1
Politician (--MA)
by Nik on 2018-07-31 @ 17:03:11
MapProfile 07-27 79 D +11 16 (-10) 20 (+11) 0 (-1) 1
Latest Discussion Topics
Author Topic: Current 2017/2018 Gubernatorial Predictions?  (Read 19327 times)
GoTfan
GoTfan21
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« Reply #25 on: August 23, 2017, 06:45:31 PM »

2017:
New Jersey: Likely Democratic Pickup
Virginia: Lean Democratic Hold

2018:



Maine will be Republican if Susan Collins runs. Nevada, Florida, Kansas, and Connecticut are a bit iffy in my mind.

Even Collins running is a very big if.
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Meatball Ron
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« Reply #26 on: August 27, 2017, 12:17:48 PM »



Safe R: AL, AR, ID, NE, SC, SD, TX, WY
Likely R: AZ, GA, MD, MA, OK, TN, VT
Lean R: IA, KS, NH, OH, WI

Toss-Up: AK (I Hold), CO (D Hold), CT (R pick-up), FL (R hold), IL (D pick-up), ME (D pick-up), MI (D pick-up), NV (D pick-up)
Lean D: NM (D pick-up), PA, RI, VA, MN
Likely D: OR
Safe D: CA, HI, NY, NJ (D pick-up)

Net change of D+5 (or D+4 for 2018 alone)
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #27 on: September 04, 2017, 10:48:12 AM »

Of course, much will depend on candidates, but these are my early ratings:

2017
New Jersey: Strong D
Virginia: Toss-up

2018
Safe D
Hawaii
Rhode Island


Strong D
New York
Oregon


Lean D
California
Minnesota
New Mexico


Toss-up
Alaska
Colorado
Connecticut

Illinois
Maine
Michigan

Pennsylvania
Wisconsin

Lean R
Arizona
Florida
Iowa
Kansas
Nevada

Ohio

Strong R
Alabama
Arkansas
Georgia
Idaho
Maryland
Oklahoma
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas


Safe R
Massachusetts
Nebraska
New Hampshire
Vermont
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #28 on: September 04, 2017, 10:51:24 AM »

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mileslunn
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« Reply #29 on: September 09, 2017, 03:03:41 AM »

Of the 2017 ones, I think New Jersey looks highly likely to be a Democrat pick-up.  Virginia leans Democrat but a GOP pick up is possible although Democrats have the edge there.
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« Reply #30 on: October 30, 2017, 07:15:18 PM »

I have the map in my signature
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Kamala
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« Reply #31 on: October 30, 2017, 07:33:48 PM »


SD gubernatorial as "likely R" but Kansas as "safe R" Huh
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America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
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« Reply #32 on: October 30, 2017, 08:22:54 PM »


SD gubernatorial as "likely R" but Kansas as "safe R" Huh

The Kansas Republican Party is distancing itself from Brownback, and Brownback is term limited, so Democrats are not going to benefit from his unpopularity.  Additionally, there have been cases not too long ago where Democrats were able to win elections in South Dakota in the correct circumstances, whereas they never really manage to win in Kansas.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #33 on: October 31, 2017, 07:30:04 PM »

For 2017, still want to wait until we get closer for 2018 although I think with the Democrats at record lows and GOP controlling all branches you will see a net gain for Democrats, but probably still have more GOP governors and controlled state legislatures, just less so than now.  This year

New Jersey - Solid Democrat - Easy pick-up
Virginia - Slight lean Democrat but GOP could pick this up

Otherwise best case scenario for Democrats is hold Virginia and pick up New Jersey so that means control of 16 governor mansions.  Best for GOP is lose New Jersey but pick up Virginia thus still control of 15 governor mansions.
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Dr. MB
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« Reply #34 on: October 31, 2017, 11:17:17 PM »

Alabama: Likely R
Alaska: Tossup*
Arizona: Tilt R
Arkansas: Safe R
California: Safe D
Colorado: Lean D
Connecticut: Lean D
Florida: Tossup
Georgia: Likely R
Hawaii: Safe D
Idaho: Safe R
Illinois: Tossup
Iowa: Lean R
Kansas: Lean R
Maine: Tossup
Maryland: Tossup
Massachusetts: Likely R
Michigan: Tossup
Minnesota: Lean D
Nebraska: Lean R*
Nevada: Tossup
New Hampshire: Lean R
New Jersey: Safe D
New Mexico: Likely D
New York: Safe D
Ohio: Tossup
Oklahoma: Safe R
Oregon: Lean D
Pennsylvania: Lean D
Rhode Island: Lean D
South Carolina: Safe R
South Dakota: Safe R
Tennessee: Likely R
Texas: Safe R
Vermont: Likely R
Virginia: Tossup
Wisconsin: Lean R
Wyoming: Safe R

*–I'm waiting to see what the Democrats do regarding Walker's and Krist's independent bids. If they run a candidate, it goes to Lean R in Alaska and Safe R in Nebraska.
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Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner
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« Reply #35 on: November 01, 2017, 07:08:27 AM »


SD gubernatorial as "likely R" but Kansas as "safe R" Huh

The Kansas Republican Party is distancing itself from Brownback, and Brownback is term limited, so Democrats are not going to benefit from his unpopularity.  Additionally, there have been cases not too long ago where Democrats were able to win elections in South Dakota in the correct circumstances, whereas they never really manage to win in Kansas.
https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2006&fips=20&f=0&off=5&elect=0
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Solid4096
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« Reply #36 on: November 06, 2017, 02:56:07 PM »

I changed my Virginia confidence from likely to leaning.  I still think Northam will win, however.

Later this week, I will add 2019 predictions.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #37 on: November 06, 2017, 09:07:27 PM »

Alabama:  Ivey 59 - Mattox 38
Alaska:  Miller 46 - Walker 44 (*)
Arizona:  Ducey 53 - Farley 43
Arkansas:  Hutchison 63 - Griffen 36
California:  Newsom 63 - Villaraigosa 37
Colorado:  Polis 49 - Tancredo 45
Connecticut:  Boughton 50 - Mattei 48 (^)
Florida:  Putnam 49 - Morgan 47
Georgia:  Kemp 55 - Abrams 43
Hawaii:  Hanabusa 68 - Tupola 30
Idaho:  Little 61 - Balukoff 35
Illinois:  Kennedy 56 - Rauner 43 (*)
Iowa:  Reynolds 55 - McGuire 44
Kansas:  Kobach 51 - Svaty 47
Maine:  Hayes 52 - Mayhew 45 (^)
Maryland:  Hogan 51 - Jealous 45
Massachusetts:  Baker 56 - Warren 43
Michigan:  Schutte 49 - Whitmer 48
Minnesota:  Walz 50 - Johnson 47
Nebraska:  Ricketts 54 - Krist 44
Nevada: Laxalt 50 - Sisolak 48
New Hampshire:  Sununu 51 - Marchand 47
New Mexico:  Grisham 53 - Pearce 45 (^)
New York:  Cuomo 61 - 37 Cahill
Ohio:  DeWine 52 - Sutton 45
Oklahoma:  Lamb 53 - Edmondson 45
Oregon:  Brown 54 - Buehler 44
Pennsylvania:  Wolf 51 - Wagner 47
Rhode Island:  Raimondo 55 - Morgan 44
South Carolina:  McMaster 51 - Smith 47
South Dakota:  Jackley 60 - Sutton 37
Tennessee:  Black 57 - Dean 41
Texas:  Abbot 62 - Wakley 35
Vermont:  Scott 50 - Minter 45
Wisonsin:  Walker 49 - Wachs 47
Wyoming:  Murray 66 - Thorne 33

^ - Pickup, open seat
* - Pickup, incumbent defeated

Dems gain IL, ME and NM and GOP gains AK and CT for an overall D+2 change.  Pretty abysmal performance for the Dems.
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MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #38 on: November 14, 2017, 02:33:59 PM »

Hayes is an independent.
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Pericles
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« Reply #39 on: November 20, 2017, 12:18:47 AM »

2018 gubernatorial elections
Rick Scott-Republican: 25-8
Jay Inslee-Democratic: 24+8
Independent: 1_
Democratic gains
Illinois
Wisconsin
Michigan
Ohio
Georgia
Florida
Kansas
New Mexico
Maine

Republican gains

Connecticut
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America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗
TexArkana
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« Reply #40 on: November 20, 2017, 02:48:27 PM »

2018 gubernatorial elections
Rick Scott-Republican: 25-8
Jay Inslee-Democratic: 24+8
Independent: 1_
Democratic gains
Illinois
Wisconsin
Michigan
Ohio
Georgia
Florida
Kansas
New Mexico
Maine

Republican gains

Connecticut
Kansas and especially Georgia are big reaches, but otherwise this is about what I'd expect.
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TexArkana
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« Reply #41 on: November 20, 2017, 03:02:54 PM »

Why is Oklahoma tilt/lean R?
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Solid4096
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« Reply #42 on: November 20, 2017, 03:48:06 PM »

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Pericles
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« Reply #43 on: November 20, 2017, 10:09:26 PM »

2018 gubernatorial elections
Rick Scott-Republican: 25-8
Jay Inslee-Democratic: 24+8
Independent: 1_
Democratic gains
Illinois
Wisconsin
Michigan
Ohio
Georgia
Florida
Kansas
New Mexico
Maine

Republican gains

Connecticut
Kansas and especially Georgia are big reaches, but otherwise this is about what I'd expect.

Georgia would be an upset but Kansas not really. The Kanss GOP is in the toilet because of Brownback. Look at KS-02, it was partly Trump but Brownback also dragged down Estes. It wasn't expected to be close but it was. So I think the Dems can do well in Kansas at the state level in 2018.
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Pessimistic Antineutrino
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« Reply #44 on: November 21, 2017, 01:17:46 AM »



D+ FL, IL, ME, MI, NV, NM
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America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
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« Reply #45 on: November 21, 2017, 12:31:09 PM »

why are Michigan and Maine toss up in the prediction confidence median.  Both are clearly going to flip to the Democrats.
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America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
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« Reply #46 on: November 21, 2017, 12:48:08 PM »

why are Michigan and Maine toss up in the prediction confidence median.  Both are clearly going to flip to the Democrats.

Not everyone believes that the Democrats will win every single state just because of Trump. IL and NM are the only states which I believe are basically guaranteed to flip to the Democrats, but I wouldn't rule out a GOP victory in either ME or MI (though obviously the GOP will struggle to keep those states).

lol.  Illinois is much more winnable for the GOP than Michigan or Maine in the 2018 Gubernatorial elections.  Honestly, it is also more winnable for the GOP than Wisconsin, Maryland, and Nevada as well.
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America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
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« Reply #47 on: November 21, 2017, 12:53:37 PM »

lol.  Illinois is much more winnable for the GOP than Michigan or Maine in the 2018 Gubernatorial elections.  Honestly, it is also more winnable for the GOP than Wisconsin, Maryland, and Nevada as well.

Lol, nice try.
I am going to look forward to being able to say "told you so" When Dem win big in Michigan and Maine, while only winning narrowly or even possibly losing in Illinois.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #48 on: November 21, 2017, 06:03:33 PM »

Here's where we are in my Predictions right now. Just as with my Senate Predictions, not all the Leans Lean to the same degree, largely because you cannot differentiate between Lean and Likely on these maps. Read my Google Doc for full ratings and rationales.

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Dr. MB
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« Reply #49 on: November 21, 2017, 08:01:33 PM »

why are Michigan and Maine toss up in the prediction confidence median.  Both are clearly going to flip to the Democrats.
I agree a Republican won't win, but keep in mind Maine has a strong independent streak and Terry Hayes could win.
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