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|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  Election Predictions (Moderator: muon2)
| | |-+  Current 2017/2018 Gubernatorial Predictions?
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Latest 2018 Predictions (Highest Scores)
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MAINEiac4434 (D-ME)MapProfile 2017-12-14 2 D +11 14 (-12) 20 (+11) 2 (+1) 0
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Author Topic: Current 2017/2018 Gubernatorial Predictions?  (Read 3606 times)
Solid4096
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« Reply #50 on: November 21, 2017, 12:53:37 pm »
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lol.  Illinois is much more winnable for the GOP than Michigan or Maine in the 2018 Gubernatorial elections.  Honestly, it is also more winnable for the GOP than Wisconsin, Maryland, and Nevada as well.

Lol, nice try.
I am going to look forward to being able to say "told you so" When Dem win big in Michigan and Maine, while only winning narrowly or even possibly losing in Illinois.
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I never use toss ups.

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« Reply #51 on: November 21, 2017, 06:03:33 pm »
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Here's where we are in my Predictions right now. Just as with my Senate Predictions, not all the Leans Lean to the same degree, largely because you cannot differentiate between Lean and Likely on these maps. Read my Google Doc for full ratings and rationales.

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'18 Gov. Ratings: https://tinyurl.com/h35xfkr (10/9: AZ: Lean R --> Strong Lean R)
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'18 House Rating: Lean R (11/7: Strong Lean R --> Lean R)
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« Reply #52 on: November 21, 2017, 08:01:33 pm »
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why are Michigan and Maine toss up in the prediction confidence median.  Both are clearly going to flip to the Democrats.
I agree a Republican won't win, but keep in mind Maine has a strong independent streak and Terry Hayes could win.
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AL-Gov: Walter Maddox (D)
CA-Gov: John Cox (R)
FL-Gov: John Morgan (I)?
MD-Gov: Ben Jealous (D)/Larry Hogan (R)
OK-Gov: Gary Richardson (R)
OR-Gov: Kate Brown (D)

AL-Sen: Doug Jones (D)
CA-Sen: David Hildebrand (D)
ME-Sen: Angus King (I)
NV-Sen: Jesse Sbaih (D)
OH-Sen: Sherrod Brown (D)
TX-Sen: Beto O'Rourke (D)
VT-Sen: Bernie Sanders (I)

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WI-01: Randy Bryce (D)

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« Reply #53 on: November 21, 2017, 08:29:25 pm »
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why are Michigan and Maine toss up in the prediction confidence median.  Both are clearly going to flip to the Democrats.
I agree a Republican won't win, but keep in mind Maine has a strong independent streak and Terry Hayes could win.

Or give the election to the Republican
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« Reply #54 on: November 23, 2017, 12:03:00 pm »
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I believe Democrats will pickup New Mexico, Nevada, Michigan, Illinois, and Maine. I think there is a good chance of Democrats picking up both Florida and Kansas as well. I think Republicans could pickup Connecticut. There are opportunities for Democrats to win in Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Oklahoma, Ohio, Maryland, and New Hampshire.
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Solid4096
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« Reply #55 on: November 23, 2017, 12:14:47 pm »
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I believe Democrats will pickup New Mexico, Nevada, Michigan, Illinois, and Maine. I think there is a good chance of Democrats picking up both Florida and Kansas as well. I think Republicans could pickup Connecticut. There are opportunities for Democrats to win in Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Oklahoma, Ohio, Maryland, and New Hampshire.

Hi

you should change your predictions, and I am telling you this since I think you are misunderstanding something.

See my comment on your senate prediction for reference of what you should fix.
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I never use toss ups.

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Rep. Pessimistic Antineutrino
Pessimistic Antineutrino
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« Reply #56 on: November 23, 2017, 12:49:06 pm »
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why are Michigan and Maine toss up in the prediction confidence median.  Both are clearly going to flip to the Democrats.

Maine is the very definition of a tossup race. Wide open (not to mention massive) fields on both sides with no clear frontrunners, and very strong independent candidates. I could see this race going any way right now - if any state were to go against the national tide, it would be Maine.

Michigan seems to be the purest of tossups as well from the little polling we have. Whitmer is not doing as strongly as expected, while Schuette is doing quite well considering the national environment.

FTR I have both states flipping D in the end, but it doesn't make sense to call either race anything but a tossup.
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