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Latest 2018 Predictions (Highest Scores)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
Latest 2018 Predictions (Most Recent Entries)
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SJerni (D-VA)MapProfile 10-15 4 D +7 20 (-6) 16 (+7) 0 (-1) 0
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Olawakandi (D-CA)MapProfile 10-15 191 D +9 18 (-8) 18 (+9) 0 (-1) 0
BushCountry (I-IN)MapProfile 10-15 36 D +6 21 (-5) 15 (+6) 0 (-1) 0
Spark498 (I-PA)MapProfile 10-14 8 D +6 21 (-5) 15 (+6) 0 (-1) 0
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westroopnerd (D-MD)MapProfile 10-14 2 D +9 18 (-8) 18 (+9) 0 (-1) 0
auburntiger (R-FL)MapProfile 10-14 5 D +9 18 (-8) 18 (+9) 0 (-1) 0
OntProgressive (D-ON)MapProfile 10-14 1 D +9 18 (-8) 18 (+9) 0 (-1) 0
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Latest 2018 Predictions (Most Recent Comments)
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man_of_honor885 (R-PA)
by man_of_honor885 on 2018-10-08 @ 17:29:40
Map 10-08 2 D +9 18 (-8) 18 (+9) 0 (-1) 1
edwardsna (R-NY)
by bluemcdowell on 2018-10-08 @ 10:49:01
MapProfile 10-07 5 D +7 20 (-6) 16 (+7) 0 (-1) 2
BushCountry (I-IN)
by KnuxMaster368 on 2018-09-13 @ 10:53:27
MapProfile 09-13 21 D +7 19 (-7) 16 (+7) 1 (0) 1
edwardsna (R-NY)
by bluemcdowell on 2018-08-15 @ 04:29:01
MapProfile 08-13 4 D +4 23 (-3) 13 (+4) 0 (-1) 1
Politician (I-MA)
by Nik on 2018-07-31 @ 17:03:11
MapProfile 07-27 79 D +11 16 (-10) 20 (+11) 0 (-1) 1
TWRAddict (L-ID)
by bluemcdowell on 2018-07-16 @ 14:14:25
MapProfile 07-11 27 D +26 1 (-25) 35 (+26) 0 (-1) 1
Gabor (D-AR)
by bluemcdowell on 2018-07-16 @ 14:10:36
Map 07-16 2 D +6 21 (-5) 15 (+6) 0 (-1) 2
kaldrich001 (R-IL)
by KoalaChikk on 2018-07-04 @ 21:14:13
MapProfile 07-01 2 D +1 26 (0) 10 (+1) 0 (-1) 1
Nik (R-TN)
by bluemcdowell on 2018-07-03 @ 14:06:20
MapProfile 06-28 1 D +1 26 (0) 10 (+1) 0 (-1) 2
Politician (I-MA)
by Politician on 2018-06-25 @ 08:50:49
MapProfile 06-25 66 D +11 15 (-11) 20 (+11) 1 (0) 1
Latest Discussion Topics
Author Topic: Current 2017/2018 Gubernatorial Predictions?  (Read 7199 times)
#KavanaughForPrison
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« Reply #50 on: November 21, 2017, 12:53:37 pm »

lol.  Illinois is much more winnable for the GOP than Michigan or Maine in the 2018 Gubernatorial elections.  Honestly, it is also more winnable for the GOP than Wisconsin, Maryland, and Nevada as well.

Lol, nice try.
I am going to look forward to being able to say "told you so" When Dem win big in Michigan and Maine, while only winning narrowly or even possibly losing in Illinois.
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« Reply #51 on: November 21, 2017, 06:03:33 pm »

Here's where we are in my Predictions right now. Just as with my Senate Predictions, not all the Leans Lean to the same degree, largely because you cannot differentiate between Lean and Likely on these maps. Read my Google Doc for full ratings and rationales.

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« Reply #52 on: November 21, 2017, 08:01:33 pm »

why are Michigan and Maine toss up in the prediction confidence median.  Both are clearly going to flip to the Democrats.
I agree a Republican won't win, but keep in mind Maine has a strong independent streak and Terry Hayes could win.
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« Reply #53 on: November 21, 2017, 08:29:25 pm »

why are Michigan and Maine toss up in the prediction confidence median.  Both are clearly going to flip to the Democrats.
I agree a Republican won't win, but keep in mind Maine has a strong independent streak and Terry Hayes could win.

Or give the election to the Republican
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« Reply #54 on: November 23, 2017, 12:03:00 pm »


I believe Democrats will pickup New Mexico, Nevada, Michigan, Illinois, and Maine. I think there is a good chance of Democrats picking up both Florida and Kansas as well. I think Republicans could pickup Connecticut. There are opportunities for Democrats to win in Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Oklahoma, Ohio, Maryland, and New Hampshire.
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« Reply #55 on: November 23, 2017, 12:14:47 pm »


I believe Democrats will pickup New Mexico, Nevada, Michigan, Illinois, and Maine. I think there is a good chance of Democrats picking up both Florida and Kansas as well. I think Republicans could pickup Connecticut. There are opportunities for Democrats to win in Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Oklahoma, Ohio, Maryland, and New Hampshire.

Hi

you should change your predictions, and I am telling you this since I think you are misunderstanding something.

See my comment on your senate prediction for reference of what you should fix.
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« Reply #56 on: November 23, 2017, 12:49:06 pm »

why are Michigan and Maine toss up in the prediction confidence median.  Both are clearly going to flip to the Democrats.

Maine is the very definition of a tossup race. Wide open (not to mention massive) fields on both sides with no clear frontrunners, and very strong independent candidates. I could see this race going any way right now - if any state were to go against the national tide, it would be Maine.

Michigan seems to be the purest of tossups as well from the little polling we have. Whitmer is not doing as strongly as expected, while Schuette is doing quite well considering the national environment.

FTR I have both states flipping D in the end, but it doesn't make sense to call either race anything but a tossup.
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« Reply #57 on: April 22, 2018, 08:20:35 am »

I see that in my home state of CT, Luke Bronin (the Democratic mayor of Hartford, CT) has pulled out of the race.  This is a good thing, IMHO....one less of what I call "Malloy's Boys" in this race. 

In other news, the Democratic front-runner seems to be Mayor Joe Ganim of Bridgeport, who is....


wait for it....


A CONVICTED FELON!! (He did some time in the "big house" for fraud/bribery a number of years ago....how he got elected mayor again, I have no idea).  Sheesh.  :-O
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« Reply #58 on: June 25, 2018, 06:50:29 pm »

Here is more hackisness on my part.

Ratings: Safe (90%), Very Likely (70%), Likely (50%), Lean (30%), Tossup (Green), Independents are in Yellow in case it becomes relevant in the future.

Seat Changes under current predictions:
AK: I to R
IL: R to D
MI: R to D
NM: R to D
WI: R to D

Once again, I'll justify some of the more controversial ones.

AK:Begich entering the race is most likely to hurt Walker more than anything. There hasn't been a whole lot of three way polling for this race, but Walker and Begich are likely going to pull from the same base of voters. This race is going to be interesting to watch, but right now the Republicans have an edge, no matter how slight.

CT:Yes Malloy is very unpopular right now, I'm aware. Ned Lamont is not Malloy, and he isn't a terrible candidate either despite his lengthy losing record. Connecticut is still a blue state in a Democratic friendly environment. This is certainly one of the GOP's best chances to flip a Dem Held seat, but I would have to contend that Lamont, if he clears the primary, will enter the general the slight favorite.

NV:Now I know what you are gonna say, "Blue state in a dem friendly year." But to that I say, no. Yes I just used this argument for CT, but NV is less blue than CT is without a doubt. And Laxalt starts off as the better known and better funded candidate in this race. While I have no doubt that this race will be competitive and will probably shift towards Sisolak, if the election where to happen tomorrow I Laxalt will be the favorite.

OH:I love Codray as much as the next partisan hack, but at this exact moment, its not clear to me that he is a sure thing, or even that he is favored. The two of them are both moderately well known in state politics. Codray has the national environment going for him, as well as the fact that he seems to be a unifying candidate, and some decent fundraising, and the fact that he's sharing the Ballot with Sherrod Brown (who seems to be heading towards a comfortable re-election). However, I still can't help but be cautious about this race. Ohio was more Republican than Georgia was in 2016, and almost as Republican as Iowa and Texas. Add this to the fact that polling doesn't seem to be really reliable in this race. They are all within the margin of error or come from a shady source etc. In short, its deff not unwinnable for DeWine, even if all conventional wisdom says he should be the underdog.

WI: I don't seem the hype around any of the current candidates. The Dem primary is a mess, although led by Evers at the moment. Recent Special elections and the Judicial Election suggest that the Democrats are at an advantage in WI, but Walker is likely to bring in lots of money from the national GOP, and that will likely keep him in the race. To keep it short (and because I have one more state to write about with only 5 minutes left on break), Walker is the underdog in his re-election, but is not out of the race yet.

KS:What in the world is happening here? The Republican primary is contentious, the Democratic Primary is contentious, there is a strong third party candidate in the race, One candidate is running with his wife as his running mate, there are a bunch of highschoolers and a New Yorker running, and another New Yorker and a literal Dog filed for this election.  Obviously, the two big candidates on the R side is incumbent Governor Jeff Colyer and Secretary of State Kris Kobach, but there are also a bunch of other candidates that I won't go into detail about because I doubt they will win, but mentioning their existence because upsets happen. On the Democratic side, the three big candidates are Laura Kelly, a State Senator, Carl Brewer, former Mayor of Wichita, and Josh Svaty, former State Rep. and Former State Agricultural Secretary. And then there is Greg Orman, running third party and making things complicated. Things can really go any way here, while this is going to be a fun election to watch, I have no doubt that this race will ruin many people's predictions, myself included.


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« Reply #59 on: July 27, 2018, 08:28:31 pm »

Changing some ratings. Here is a summary of the changes:

Races moving Towards the Republicans:
Kansas: Tossup -->Lean R
New Hampshire: Lean R --> Likely R
Vermont: Likely R --> Very Likely R
Oregon: Safe D --> Very Likely D

Races moving Towards the Democrats:
Arizona: Likely R --> Lean R
Iowa: Lean R --> Tossup
Colorado: Lean D --> Likely D
Illinois: Lean D --> Likely D
Georgia: Likely R --> Tossup

Seats that Flip Under Current Predictions:
Seat Changes under current predictions:
AK: I to R
IL: R to D
MI: R to D
NM: R to D
WI: R to D



Justifying the changes, I'll start with the races that move towards the Republicans

KS: It remains to be seen where most of Orman's votes will come from. He could play the spoiler for either side. In the absence of more polling, I think that it is safest to assume that this Republican State will favor Republicans to some degree.

VT and NH: In VT, Scott's challengers are very weak overall. While one of them could make the magic happen and win, I see it as increasingly unlikely as the campaign progresses. Similar situation in New Hampshire, only I think Kelly is a fairly strong candidate if she can bolster her name recognition. Sununu is also more conservative than Baker or Scott when comparing these races.

OR: There really isn't much that changed in this race, this is more of a correction than a true ratings change. Republicans have enough of a strength in Eastern Oregon that I think considering this race "safe" for the Democrats is a bit generous to them.

Races that Moved Towards the Democrats:
AZ, CO, and IA: Similar to Oregon, these is more of a correction than an actual rating change. I underestimated or overestimated one candidate or another. Basically, I learned more about these races, even if things really didn't change.

IL: Dems seem to be rallying around Prtizker more than I initially thought. Add to this Rauner's direct connection to the family separation policy, and I think its enough to move this race more into the Democratic Column.

GA: This is a combination of things. First, a correction. "Likely R" might have been an overgenerous rating to the Republicans, and I have previously underestimated Abrams as a candidate. Combine this with the fact that I think Kemp is the weaker candidate to have won the Republican runoff, and I think moving this race to tossup is reasonable. I will note that my exact opinion on this race will probably change week to week, so Tossup is probably the safest bet.


Some quick math:
The Democrats winning every seat they are favored in, plus all the tossups, would give them 25 Governorships, or D+9. Even winning just the races they are favored in would result in 20 Democratic Governors, or D+4.
Using a very basic math, and 10 general scenarios, my predictions have a reasonable range for the Democrats of 21 to 30 Governor seats in 2019. I can go more into the methodology of this if people really want to know.

« Last Edit: July 27, 2018, 08:32:55 pm by Edgy McEdgerson »Logged

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« Reply #60 on: July 31, 2018, 06:11:44 pm »

OK, SD, GA, KS and AK after all, may go Democratic along with WI, OH, MI, IL and PA and some states like CT, RI, ME, MD or OR may go GOP. It's weird how normal trends, with a "weaken Trump" aren't gonna go the GOP's way.

I know what you are saying "What in the world is going on in KS?"
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« Reply #61 on: August 21, 2018, 06:17:01 am »



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