RINO Tom vs SunriseAroundTheWorld vs Extreme Republican

[OSR stands with Israel]

Who wins the primary with what map

Basically each of the legs of the stool of conservatism is competing with each other:


This is what I think:

RINO Tom
SunriseAroundTheWorld
Extreme Republican
Its a contested convention


Basically RINO Tom is Kasich, Sunrise is Marco , Extreme is Cruz

Note: I choose Extreme Republican instead of RFayette as the Socially Conservative Candidate because RFayette would easily win , while with Extreme Republican it makes it a close race.

[Kamala]

"Stool" is the perfect word for conservatism.

[OSR stands with Israel]

"Stool" is the perfect word for conservatism.

Have you heard of the term , 3 legged stool of conservativism .

[Kamala]

"Stool" is the perfect word for conservatism.

Have you heard of the term , 3 legged stool of conservativism .

I am, of course, referring to samples of said stool given at medical centers.

[Santander]

RINO Tom is more like Pataki than Kasich.

[SATW]

I think your map is pretty solid, Old School Republican.

My base would likely be suburban republicans in the sunbelt and border states + Latinos + Jewish Republicans + Neoconservatives.

RINO Tom likely takes most of the Business Republicans + Moderate Republicans + most northern republicans + WASPy Republicans.

ER takes the Evangelicals/Social Conservatives, the rich/white southern suburbanites in Safe R states, and the non-Trump GOP Base.

[Goldwater]

Interesting, I would be a Tom/Sunrise swing voter. probably dependent on who I think would be more likely to beat ER.

[Lechasseur]

All three seem like nice guys but I'd support Extreme Republican as he's the one I generally agree with the most out of the three.

I think your map is pretty solid, Old School Republican.

My base would likely be suburban republicans in the sunbelt and border states + Latinos + Jewish Republicans + Neoconservatives.

RINO Tom likely takes most of the Business Republicans + Moderate Republicans + most northern republicans + WASPy Republicans.

ER takes the Evangelicals/Social Conservatives, the rich/white southern suburbanites in Safe R states, and the non-Trump GOP Base.

I agree with this, but who would Trump supporters support in this contest?

[RINO Tom]

All three seem like nice guys but I'd support Extreme Republican as he's the one I generally agree with the most out of the three.

I think your map is pretty solid, Old School Republican.

My base would likely be suburban republicans in the sunbelt and border states + Latinos + Jewish Republicans + Neoconservatives.

RINO Tom likely takes most of the Business Republicans + Moderate Republicans + most northern republicans + WASPy Republicans.

ER takes the Evangelicals/Social Conservatives, the rich/white southern suburbanites in Safe R states, and the non-Trump GOP Base.

I agree with this, but who would Trump supporters support in this contest?

I'm of the opinion that there isn't a lasting, coherent "Trump base" within the GOP as there is with "business conservatives," "the religious right," "neoconservatives," etc.  Trump was, IMO, a catch-all candidate that had the support of a LOT of very ideologically diverse people who were simply displeased with the politicians that represented them in Washington.  These folks ranged from my formerly-Democratic grandmother (socially conservative, more populist on economic issues) to my lifelong-Republican father (extremely fiscally conservative, doesn't much care about social issues), and I don't think they'll comprise a cohesive voting bloc that rallies behind one candidate going forward.  In essence, "Trump's supporters" will be all over the place, as without Trump, they don't agree on specific issues all that much.

[OSR stands with Israel]

All three seem like nice guys but I'd support Extreme Republican as he's the one I generally agree with the most out of the three.

I think your map is pretty solid, Old School Republican.

My base would likely be suburban republicans in the sunbelt and border states + Latinos + Jewish Republicans + Neoconservatives.

RINO Tom likely takes most of the Business Republicans + Moderate Republicans + most northern republicans + WASPy Republicans.

ER takes the Evangelicals/Social Conservatives, the rich/white southern suburbanites in Safe R states, and the non-Trump GOP Base.

I agree with this, but who would Trump supporters support in this contest?

they probably would be swing voters. In 2012 Trump Supporters were basically Romney/Gingrich voters and not unified .

[OSR stands with Israel]

Interesting, I would be a Tom/Sunrise swing voter. probably dependent on who I think would be more likely to beat ER.

By the time it gets to they Cali primary, a contested convention is basically all but guaranteed anyway.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I like the map!  The only places I would beg to differ:

Washington: Me --> RINO Tom
Wisconsin: RINO Tom --> Sunrise
Minnesota: RINO Tom --> Sunrise
South Carolina: Sunrise --> Me
Georgia: Sunrise --> Me (narrowly)
Ohio: RINO Tom --> Sunrise
Hawaii: Sunrise --> RINO Tom

I would also have a chance in Maine and Colorado if they continued to use low-turnout caucuses.

I think 2016 GOP Primary voters would be something like this:

Trump voters probably split pretty evenly all three ways (with big deviations from that depending on region of the country)

Cruz voters:
Me- 80%
Sunrise- 20%

Rubio voters:
Sunrise- 60%
Me- 20%
RINO Tom- 20%

Kasich voters:
RINO Tom- 65%
Sunrise- 33%
Me- 2% (probably a few social conservatives in Ohio who voted for Kasich to stop Trump)

Non-traditional GOP voters:
RINO Tom- 85%
Sunrise- 15%

[OSR stands with Israel]

I like the map!  The only places I would beg to differ:

Washington: Me --> RINO Tom
Wisconsin: RINO Tom --> Sunrise
Minnesota: RINO Tom --> Sunrise
South Carolina: Sunrise --> Me
Georgia: Sunrise --> Me (narrowly)
Ohio: RINO Tom --> Sunrise
Hawaii: Sunrise --> RINO Tom

I would also have a chance in Maine and Colorado if they continued to use low-turnout caucuses.

I think 2016 GOP Primary voters would be something like this:

Trump voters probably split pretty evenly all three ways (with big deviations from that depending on region of the country)

Cruz voters:
Me- 80%
Sunrise- 20%

Rubio voters:
Sunrise- 60%
Me- 20%
RINO Tom- 20%

Kasich voters:
RINO Tom- 65%
Sunrise- 33%
Me- 2% (probably a few social conservatives in Ohio who voted for Kasich to stop Trump)

Non-traditional GOP voters:
RINO Tom- 85%
Sunrise- 15%

Isn't South Carolina basically the Neo Conservative state in the primaries.

Other than 2016 neo cons usually won that primary.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I like the map!  The only places I would beg to differ:

Washington: Me --> RINO Tom
Wisconsin: RINO Tom --> Sunrise
Minnesota: RINO Tom --> Sunrise
South Carolina: Sunrise --> Me
Georgia: Sunrise --> Me (narrowly)
Ohio: RINO Tom --> Sunrise
Hawaii: Sunrise --> RINO Tom

I would also have a chance in Maine and Colorado if they continued to use low-turnout caucuses.

I think 2016 GOP Primary voters would be something like this:

Trump voters probably split pretty evenly all three ways (with big deviations from that depending on region of the country)

Cruz voters:
Me- 80%
Sunrise- 20%

Rubio voters:
Sunrise- 60%
Me- 20%
RINO Tom- 20%

Kasich voters:
RINO Tom- 65%
Sunrise- 33%
Me- 2% (probably a few social conservatives in Ohio who voted for Kasich to stop Trump)

Non-traditional GOP voters:
RINO Tom- 85%
Sunrise- 15%

Isn't South Carolina basically the Neo Conservative state in the primaries.

Other than 2016 neo cons usually won that primary.

South Carolina is also a highly suburban-style evangelical state (and I'm fairly neo-con on foreign policy as well).  But, to get the close race, it makes sense to give Sunrise South Carolina because it makes the first three states split between the three of us.

As for SC, I would probably take the Upstate, while Sunrise would win the Low Country and coastal areas (particularly SC-01).  The Pee Dee and Columbia metro area would probably swing the state.  Either way, RINO Tom probably is a distant third in South Carolina (right after I place a distant third in New Hampshire).

[SATW]

I think I'd barely win Georgia, but you would likely beat me in S. Carolina. Atlanta's suburbs have a decent amount of Jewish voters, particularly Jewish Republicans, and I'd most certainly have a strategy to turn them out, along with rest of the Atlanta metro's voters that would likely vote for me.

S. Carolina I'd struggle because of the Upstate region, like you said. I'd do well in Charleston, Horry County and Hilton Head, but RINO Tom would eat up some of my base there allowing ER to win statewide by a few points.

[Young Conservative]

I like Tom, but he could never win a single state in the GOP primary because he's Pro-Choice. (Isn't he?)

[OSR stands with Israel]

I like Tom, but he could never win a single state in the GOP primary because he's Pro-Choice. (Isn't he?)

He could always downplay it and give a standard let courts or states decide .

I mean guilani was leading throughout 2007 and he is pro life ,and prob would have won many states if he didn't have that idiotic campaign strategy of not campaigning in NH or SC.