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| | | |-+  1972: Richard Nixon vs. Robert F. Kennedy
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Author Topic: 1972: Richard Nixon vs. Robert F. Kennedy  (Read 618 times)
MissoulaDem
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« on: August 08, 2017, 08:43:21 pm »

Say Bobby Kennedy was never killed in '68 and goes on to win the Democratic nomination in '72. How would the election play out with Kennedy as the Democrat nominee instead of McGovern, who could have been his running mate, and how much of an impact would they have played and how does this effect later elections?
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« Reply #1 on: August 08, 2017, 08:49:18 pm »

I would be tempted to say that Kennedy chooses either Jimmy Carter (who attempted to position himself as a VP candidate at the 72 DNC) or Abraham Ribicoff (for experience as well as work within the Kennedy administration) as a running mate but can't conclusively call the General election one way or another and would say that it would be too close to call.
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« Reply #2 on: August 08, 2017, 08:57:08 pm »


271: Robert F. Kennedy/Stuart Symington - 41.5%
204: Richard Nixon/John Connally - 40.2%
63: Strom Thurmond/John Rarick 16.2%
Others - 2.1%
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« Reply #3 on: August 08, 2017, 09:15:47 pm »



Kennedy/Sanford: 287 EV, 50% pv
Nixon/Agnew: 251 EV, 49% pv
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« Reply #4 on: August 10, 2017, 09:46:32 am »

He would have done way better than McGovern, but I doubt that anyone could have beaten Nixon in 1972 under the real life conditions. RFK might have picked Carter for VP, though that doesn't make him competative in the south. I gave him GA in the scenario, but I'm even doubtful about that.



✓ President Richard Nixon (R-CA)/Vice President Spiro Agnew (R-MD): 405 EVs.; 55.4%
Senator Robert Kennedy (D-NY)/Governor Jimmy Carter (D-GA): 133 EVs.; 43.6%
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« Reply #5 on: August 10, 2017, 01:01:26 pm »


271: Robert F. Kennedy/Stuart Symington - 41.5%
204: Richard Nixon/John Connally - 40.2%
63: Strom Thurmond/John Rarick 16.2%
Others - 2.1%

Lmao at Strom running third party against Nixon, he I believe he was a supporter of Nixon.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #6 on: August 10, 2017, 01:44:25 pm »

Sure. Thurmond supported hawkishness, was decidedly more against civil rights than Nixon would run as against Kennedy, supported the gold standard(I think), and generally was certainly more right wing on issues such as healthcare, busing, affirmative action, the environment, and other such issues.
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Cath
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« Reply #7 on: August 11, 2017, 12:53:02 pm »

Nixon would wipe the floor with the boy.
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« Reply #8 on: August 12, 2017, 01:48:44 pm »

Sure. Thurmond supported hawkishness, was decidedly more against civil rights than Nixon would run as against Kennedy, supported the gold standard(I think), and generally was certainly more right wing on issues such as healthcare, busing, affirmative action, the environment, and other such issues.

The question is why he didn't actually run in 72 then, especially with McGovern being to the left of Kennedy in this hypothetical.

Nobody was going to beat Nixon in 72, his approvals were substantially over 50 percent and the Cold War appeared to be winding down. RFK vs Nixon in 68 is the more fascinating debate.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #9 on: August 12, 2017, 04:04:24 pm »

Sure. Thurmond supported hawkishness, was decidedly more against civil rights than Nixon would run as against Kennedy, supported the gold standard(I think), and generally was certainly more right wing on issues such as healthcare, busing, affirmative action, the environment, and other such issues.

The question is why he didn't actually run in 72 then, especially with McGovern being to the left of Kennedy in this hypothetical.

Nobody was going to beat Nixon in 72, his approvals were substantially over 50 percent and the Cold War appeared to be winding down. RFK vs Nixon in 68 is the more fascinating debate.

I would assume he didn't run because a third party run had no chance of throwing it the House...
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« Reply #10 on: August 12, 2017, 08:58:39 pm »

He would have done way better than McGovern, but I doubt that anyone could have beaten Nixon in 1972 under the real life conditions. RFK might have picked Carter for VP, though that doesn't make him competative in the south. I gave him GA in the scenario, but I'm even doubtful about that.



✓ President Richard Nixon (R-CA)/Vice President Spiro Agnew (R-MD): 405 EVs.; 55.4%
Senator Robert Kennedy (D-NY)/Governor Jimmy Carter (D-GA): 133 EVs.; 43.6%

Seems about right, though I would also flip Wisconsin, Oregon, and Connecticut to Kennedy.
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« Reply #11 on: August 13, 2017, 12:00:08 am »

Nixon still wins it, just by a narrower margin. Honestly, I think Bobby would sit it out and run in 76.
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« Reply #12 on: August 14, 2017, 01:06:34 am »


Nixon/Agnew   54.0%
RFK/Sanford    44.3%
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« Reply #13 on: August 14, 2017, 01:10:35 am »


Nixon/Agnew 395 54.0
RFK/Sanford  143 44.3
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The Govanah Jake
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« Reply #14 on: August 14, 2017, 01:57:35 pm »



Richard Nixon/Spiro Agnew - 368 EV - 54.79%

Robert Kennedy/Arch A. Moore Jr. 170 EV - 43.96%
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