MA-3: After Tsongas

[smoltchanov]

Really hoping we can get a more liberal democrat in there. Nikki Tsongas was never my least favorite MA Dem but I don't find her to be a particularly good congresswoman.

I understand it's Massachusetts, but it's not a D+30 district...

So? It's not like a Republican can win there. What matters is how liberal the Democratic primary voters are.

Yes. But AFAIK not every Democrat in this district is a "flaming progressive". There are enough pragmatic moderate liberals too..

[MarkD]

Really hoping we can get a more liberal democrat in there. Nikki Tsongas was never my least favorite MA Dem but I don't find her to be a particularly good congresswoman.

I understand it's Massachusetts, but it's not a D+30 district...

So? It's not like a Republican can win there. What matters is how liberal the Democratic primary voters are.

I think MA-03 still has the potential to elect a Republican. It voted for Scott Brown when he lost statewide in 2012 to Warren; it voted about 52.25% for Charlie Baker in 2014. And Tsongas hardly won the 2007 special election by some landslide -- only about 6.22 points. Maybe a Republican like state Rep. Sheila Harrington could make it a serious contest.

[_]

Really hoping we can get a more liberal democrat in there. Nikki Tsongas was never my least favorite MA Dem but I don't find her to be a particularly good congresswoman.

I understand it's Massachusetts, but it's not a D+30 district...

So? It's not like a Republican can win there. What matters is how liberal the Democratic primary voters are.

I think MA-03 still has the potential to elect a Republican. It voted for Scott Brown when he lost statewide in 2012 to Warren; it voted about 52.25% for Charlie Baker in 2014. And Tsongas hardly won the 2007 special election by some landslide -- only about 6.22 points. Maybe a Republican like state Rep. Sheila Harrington could make it a serious contest.

Only in the scenario where they put up a full on Progressive instead of someone more Moderate, and the Republican would have to run an absolutely masterful campaign, even then it's tossup.

[smoltchanov]

IMHO, Tsongas was very adequate representative of this district, which is liberal, but not extremely liberal. So, i don't see a need for the next congressman from this district being "ultraprogressive". Somebody in Tsongas mold would be absolutely fine with me, and, what's more important - correlate with district's basic political leanings...

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Really hoping we can get a more liberal democrat in there. Nikki Tsongas was never my least favorite MA Dem but I don't find her to be a particularly good congresswoman.

I understand it's Massachusetts, but it's not a D+30 district...

So? It's not like a Republican can win there. What matters is how liberal the Democratic primary voters are.

I think MA-03 still has the potential to elect a Republican. It voted for Scott Brown when he lost statewide in 2012 to Warren; it voted about 52.25% for Charlie Baker in 2014. And Tsongas hardly won the 2007 special election by some landslide -- only about 6.22 points. Maybe a Republican like state Rep. Sheila Harrington could make it a serious contest.

Only in the scenario where they put up a full on Progressive instead of someone more Moderate, and the Republican would have to run an absolutely masterful campaign, even then it's tossup.

And you would need a 2010 tidal wave too. Not happening in 2018 here, good luck taking this seat, lol.

[Chief Justice Keef]

Really hoping we can get a more liberal democrat in there. Nikki Tsongas was never my least favorite MA Dem but I don't find her to be a particularly good congresswoman.

I understand it's Massachusetts, but it's not a D+30 district...

So? It's not like a Republican can win there. What matters is how liberal the Democratic primary voters are.

I think MA-03 still has the potential to elect a Republican. It voted for Scott Brown when he lost statewide in 2012 to Warren; it voted about 52.25% for Charlie Baker in 2014. And Tsongas hardly won the 2007 special election by some landslide -- only about 6.22 points. Maybe a Republican like state Rep. Sheila Harrington could make it a serious contest.

Only in the scenario where they put up a full on Progressive instead of someone more Moderate, and the Republican would have to run an absolutely masterful campaign, even then it's tossup.

Lol even in that scenario the Democrat would win

[RogueBeaver]

Bernstein: watch for outsiders, or at least 1st-time candidates.

[McGovernForPrez]

Really hoping we can get a more liberal democrat in there. Nikki Tsongas was never my least favorite MA Dem but I don't find her to be a particularly good congresswoman.

If she's not liberal enough for you, you'd have really hated her late husband.

Not a huge Tsongas fan. I'll take what I can get but this district can easily be won by a strong progressive.

[McGovernForPrez]

For all the people thinking a progressive candidate could lose this seat look at Jim McGovern's district. He's a very liberal congressman in one of our most conservative districts. Even in the 2010 wave he was barely threatened.

[Nyvin]

Really hoping we can get a more liberal democrat in there. Nikki Tsongas was never my least favorite MA Dem but I don't find her to be a particularly good congresswoman.

I understand it's Massachusetts, but it's not a D+30 district...

It doesn't need to be D+30 to elect a progressive candidate.   MA-3 could easily get someone more left wing in office.

Republican will definitely not be winning here in 2018 either.

[smoltchanov]

Really hoping we can get a more liberal democrat in there. Nikki Tsongas was never my least favorite MA Dem but I don't find her to be a particularly good congresswoman.

I understand it's Massachusetts, but it's not a D+30 district...

It doesn't need to be D+30 to elect a progressive candidate.   MA-3 could easily get someone more left wing in office.

Republican will definitely not be winning here in 2018 either.

IMHO D+9 district is better represented by "normal" pragmatic liberal (Tsongas-type) then a loonie...

[Chief Justice Keef]

Really hoping we can get a more liberal democrat in there. Nikki Tsongas was never my least favorite MA Dem but I don't find her to be a particularly good congresswoman.

I understand it's Massachusetts, but it's not a D+30 district...

It doesn't need to be D+30 to elect a progressive candidate.   MA-3 could easily get someone more left wing in office.

Republican will definitely not be winning here in 2018 either.

IMHO D+9 district is better represented by "normal" pragmatic liberal (Tsongas-type) then a loonie...

I say we have more "loonies". The pragmatic liberal types haven't been doing a good job so far.

[RogueBeaver]

Walsh COS Dan Koh will run.

[McGovernForPrez]

Walsh COS Dan Koh will run.

Gross. I already don't like that Walsh is my Mayor nevermind him trying to extend his influence even further.

[MAINEiac4434]

Walsh COS Dan Koh will run.

Gross. I already don't like that Walsh is my Mayor nevermind him trying to extend his influence even further.

Tito Jackson 2017

[smoltchanov]

Really hoping we can get a more liberal democrat in there. Nikki Tsongas was never my least favorite MA Dem but I don't find her to be a particularly good congresswoman.

I understand it's Massachusetts, but it's not a D+30 district...

It doesn't need to be D+30 to elect a progressive candidate.   MA-3 could easily get someone more left wing in office.

Republican will definitely not be winning here in 2018 either.

IMHO D+9 district is better represented by "normal" pragmatic liberal (Tsongas-type) then a loonie...

I say we have more "loonies". The pragmatic liberal types haven't been doing a good job so far.

From MY point of view - they did..

[smoltchanov]

Walsh COS Dan Koh will run.

Not bad. Probably - pragmatic style liberal, whom i generally like...

[McGovernForPrez]

Walsh COS Dan Koh will run.

Gross. I already don't like that Walsh is my Mayor nevermind him trying to extend his influence even further.

Tito Jackson 2017

I'm 100% on board with him. If only he was a better fundraiser. His message is so obscenely strong if he could just get it out there and stick with it.

On a different note, there's only one MA district where running a more progressive candidate could really hurt Democrats and that's Bill Keating's district. It's the most historically Republican district we have and even then it'd still be at least likely D in this climate.

[Kingpoleon]

Walsh COS Dan Koh will run.

Not bad. Probably - pragmatic style liberal, whom i generally like...

Indeed. Walsh's influence won't be too bad for Massachusetts.

[RogueBeaver]

Koh will jump in next month.

[Meatball Ron]

Having lived in this district: the issue with nominating a candidate substantially to the left of Tsongas isn't that they'd risk losing to a moderate Republican. Rather, it's simply that the Democratic primary voters in the district wouldn't want a candidate like that. As some have alluded to earlier in the thread, the Democrats here are moderate/pragmatic types. In fact, we can realistically expect a nominee less liberal than Tsongas.

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[RogueBeaver]

Koh in.

[Figueira]

Having lived in this district: the issue with nominating a candidate substantially to the left of Tsongas isn't that they'd risk losing to a moderate Republican. Rather, it's simply that the Democratic primary voters in the district wouldn't want a candidate like that. As some have alluded to earlier in the thread, the Democrats here are moderate/pragmatic types. In fact, we can realistically expect a nominee less liberal than Tsongas.

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Generally I agree, but I could see a progressive type breaking through in a crowded primary.

Does anyone know how liberal Koh is? I've been assuming that he's basically where Tsongas is politically, but I have no idea.

[Figueira]

Steve Kerrigan considering. He was Coakley's running mate and is pretty generic IIRC.

http://www.masslive.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/09/steve_kerrigan_mulls_run_for_n.html

[McGovernForPrez]

Having lived in this district: the issue with nominating a candidate substantially to the left of Tsongas isn't that they'd risk losing to a moderate Republican. Rather, it's simply that the Democratic primary voters in the district wouldn't want a candidate like that. As some have alluded to earlier in the thread, the Democrats here are moderate/pragmatic types. In fact, we can realistically expect a nominee less liberal than Tsongas.

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Generally I agree, but I could see a progressive type breaking through in a crowded primary.

Does anyone know how liberal Koh is? I've been assuming that he's basically where Tsongas is politically, but I have no idea.

If I had to guess I'd say he's probably about as liberal as Marty Walsh. Apparently he's very numbers motivated if I remember correctly. I really don't like the idea of Marty extending his influence but I'd be OK if Koh were the nominee as there are many worse Democrats we could nominate to fill the position.