Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
August 20, 2019, 04:32:22 am
News: 2020 Presidential Predictions (General) are now active.

  Atlas Forum
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections
  2019 & Odd Year Gubernatorial Election Polls (Moderators: Brittain33, Silurian)
  VA-Q: Northam +6
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: VA-Q: Northam +6  (Read 1517 times)
RogueBeaver
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,640
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: August 09, 2017, 12:36:48 pm »

44/38.
Logged
superbudgie1582
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,685


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: August 09, 2017, 12:38:04 pm »

Why didnt you just put Quinnipiac?
Logged
For Trump everything, for immigrants the law
xingkerui
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17,016
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: August 09, 2017, 12:39:37 pm »

Seems about right. Northam probably won't win by a lot, but Gillespie has little room for error when it comes to his path to victory.
Logged
Gass3268
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,503
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: August 09, 2017, 12:40:11 pm »

Democrats lead the generic ballot for the state legislature 49/38

Trump approval: 36/61
McAuliffe approval: 51/35
Kaine approval: 54/38
Warner approval: 59/30
Logged
Chief Justice windjammer
windjammer
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13,770
France


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: August 09, 2017, 12:43:47 pm »

Truly the fact that Mcauliffe managed to be a popular governor is one of the most surprising events in VA politics lol.
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,993
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: August 09, 2017, 12:45:45 pm »

Considering that this is Quinnipiac, I wouldn't say it's a very bad poll for Gillespie. Still Lean D, though.
Logged
Chief Justice windjammer
windjammer
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13,770
France


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: August 09, 2017, 01:06:39 pm »

Considering that this is Quinnipiac, I wouldn't say it's a very bad poll for Gillespie. Still Lean D, though.
There are still many undecided to be honest.
Logged
heatcharger
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,197
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: August 09, 2017, 01:09:13 pm »

Northam just put up his first TV ad, so hopefully he can increase his name ID which is still much lower than Gillespie's.

Hopefully they asked 2018 questions and release them tomorrow.
Logged
Gass3268
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,503
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: August 09, 2017, 01:37:01 pm »

Northam just put up his first TV ad, so hopefully he can increase his name ID which is still much lower than Gillespie's.

Hopefully they asked 2018 questions and release them tomorrow.

I have yet to see a general election ad in the DMV from either candidate.
Logged
Coraxion
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 910
Ethiopia


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: August 09, 2017, 01:49:22 pm »

Great poll!
Logged
Not_A_Man
Not_Madigan
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,093
United States


Political Matrix
E: -3.29, S: -7.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: August 09, 2017, 01:54:08 pm »

From all the polls I've seen from Quinnipiac, I think they have a lean towards Dems now.  Tossup to Tilt D still, a lot of undecideds that can be swayed Gillespie's way.
Logged
superbudgie1582
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,685


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: August 09, 2017, 02:06:14 pm »

From all the polls I've seen from Quinnipiac, I think they have a lean towards Dems now.  Tossup to Tilt D still, a lot of undecideds that can be swayed Gillespie's way.

I would argue during the last cycle, the had an R-lean if anything.
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,993
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: August 09, 2017, 02:31:31 pm »

From all the polls I've seen from Quinnipiac, I think they have a lean towards Dems now.  Tossup to Tilt D still, a lot of undecideds that can be swayed Gillespie's way.

I would argue during the last cycle, the had an R-lean if anything.

Yeah...

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=243701.0
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=249903.0
Logged
Not_A_Man
Not_Madigan
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,093
United States


Political Matrix
E: -3.29, S: -7.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: August 09, 2017, 02:39:48 pm »

From all the polls I've seen from Quinnipiac, I think they have a lean towards Dems now.  Tossup to Tilt D still, a lot of undecideds that can be swayed Gillespie's way.

I would argue during the last cycle, the had an R-lean if anything.

Yeah...

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=243701.0
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=249903.0

To be fair they are just as often wrong in both directions. They had Gardner +10 in 2014 LOL

I've usually disregarded them and compared them to Gravis in my mind.  Figured they're always off.
Logged
Silurian
Virginia C
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14,420
Ukraine


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: August 09, 2017, 02:40:53 pm »


As I recall, August was a pretty bad month for Trump. He was getting a lot of high single digit national polling deficits then. If Clinton had won nationally by 7 or 8 points, don't you think Virginia would have landed close to or past +10 points for her?

Of course, not to say it doesn't have a D lean, but I fully expect the never-ending scandals that Trump was hit with to actually have caused his support to drop as low as the averages showed, and if the election were held during one of those rough spots, like the AH tape or the Kahn drama, that Trump would have lost by a substantial margin as the polls showed.
Logged
Gass3268
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,503
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: August 09, 2017, 02:46:12 pm »

From all the polls I've seen from Quinnipiac, I think they have a lean towards Dems now.  Tossup to Tilt D still, a lot of undecideds that can be swayed Gillespie's way.

I would argue during the last cycle, the had an R-lean if anything.

Yeah...

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=243701.0
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=249903.0

First was post DNC and the second was post Access Hollywood. Also the Clinton number was about right, it' just almost 100% of the undecideds broke to Trump.
Logged
Coraxion
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 910
Ethiopia


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: August 09, 2017, 02:48:14 pm »


As I recall, August was a pretty bad month for Trump. He was getting a lot of high single digit national polling deficits then. If Clinton had won nationally by 7 or 8 points, don't you think Virginia would have landed close to or past +10 points for her?

Of course, not to say it doesn't have a D lean, but I fully expect the never-ending scandals that Trump was hit with to actually have caused his support to drop as low as the averages showed, and if the election were held during one of those rough spots, like the AH tape or the Kahn drama, that Trump would have lost by a substantial margin as the polls showed.
Indeed. I remember 538 had Clinton winning South Carolina in its now-cast for a time.
Logged
ProgressiveCanadian
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,693
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: August 13, 2017, 06:56:02 pm »

I've seen someone lead 44/38 before in a poll....didn't end well. Hope the Democrats can actually hold this.
Logged
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC