Promises to Keep | The Presidency of Joe Biden
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Edgeofnight
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« on: August 10, 2017, 01:13:17 PM »
« edited: August 16, 2017, 03:56:39 PM by EdgeofNight »

The woods are lovely, dark and deep,  
But I have promises to keep,  
And miles to go before I sleep,  
And miles to go before I sleep.



Joe Biden, the 45th President of the United States

The 2016 Presidential Election


Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE)/Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH) - 352 EV/52.3% PV
Real Estate Tycoon Donald Trump (R-NY)/Senator Jeff Sessions (R-AL) - 186 EV /44.7% PV
Fmr. Governor Gary Johnson (L-NM)/Mary Ruwart (L-TX) - 0 EV/2.1% PV
Dr. Jill Stein (G-MA)/Dr. Ajamu Baraka (G-DC) - 0 EV/.8% PV

Senate Results:


D - 50+2
R - 48

House Totals:
R - 227
D - 208
From: A Legacy: The Presidency of Joe Biden (2017 - 2021)

"Despite the death of his son one year prior, Vice President Joe Biden has won the 2016 Presidential contest. At 11:43PM, The Associated Press projected that Biden would carry Pennsylvania, giving him the 270 electoral votes to win the White House, becoming the oldest President-elect in US history."
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America Needs R'hllor
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« Reply #1 on: August 10, 2017, 05:43:05 PM »

Yay, Senators Feingold and Kander!
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Lord Admirale
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« Reply #2 on: August 10, 2017, 06:33:19 PM »

This should be fun!
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Edgeofnight
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« Reply #3 on: August 11, 2017, 12:36:09 AM »
« Edited: August 17, 2017, 11:39:56 AM by EdgeofNight »

Date: November 22nd, 2016


Republicans to Filibuster Garland
By Joshua Miller

Today, nine Republican senators have released a coauthored statement announcing their plan to block President-elect Biden's Supreme Court Nominee, Merrick Garland. This comes just one day after Biden announced his intentions to renominate the DC Circuit Judge to the nation's highest court. Garland was previously nominated by outgoing President Barrack Obama on March 16th of this year.  The statement was coauthored and signed by Senators Lamar Alexander, Ted Cruz (R-TX), Jim Inhofe (R-OK), John Kennedy (R-LA), Jerry Moran (R-KS), Rand Paul (R-KY),Mike Rounds (R-SD), Jeff Sessions (R-AL), and Richard Shelby (R-AL).



The news on the front page of the Boston Globe's website troubled the Massachusetts Governor. The more polarized national politics became, the more difficult a reelection battle he saw. Baker knew the basic political facts that had been thrown around. On one hand, his approval rating hovered around 70% in spite of the heated situation around the nation. And Baker knew that Massachusetts had not denied an incumbent governor reelection in decades. But on the other hand, Baker saw himself in a precarious situation. Baker needed to appeal to Trump and Cruz supporters within his own party, while simultaneously gaining the support of a large number of Elizabeth Warren supporters. And beyond reelection, what was next for the Governor? With numbers like his, it was only natural that there would be talk about a White House campaign, and those close to the governor knew that he was eyeing the Granite State in 2020. Still, focusing back in on the present, Charlie Baker had an urgent task ahead of him. The letter from the President-elect was still on his desk, and within a few days the contents of that letter would break to the press. Baker needed an answer before that happened...




The morning news put Senator Manchin in a difficult position. Manchin was the sole democrat still on the fence about Garland. He was under significant pressure to fall in line from the President-elect, a man he respected deeply, even if they did have their disagreements. Meanwhile, like most of his colleagues in the senate, he hated Ted Cruz, the leader of the opposition to Garland. He hardly wanted to be painted into a corner with him. But Manchin also knew that voting to confirm Garland would be to vote for beliefs that neither he nor his constituents supported. And he was already facing several high profile challengers for reelection next year.  He would be forced to pick a side soon. He was able to avoid an awkward vote for the Interior and Energy Secretaries, but this one was too important to both sides for him to stay in the middle. Sighing, the West Virginian Democrat decided to put the issue off for another few days. Hopefully, all the talk around the "Nuclear Option" would die down by then.


Biden's currently announced nominees (* denotes retention)
  • State: Sam Power
  • Interior: Sally Jewell*
  • Energy: Carol Browner
  • Veteran's Affairs: Joe Sestak
  • SCOTUS: Merrick Garland


To anyone who reads this and responds, answer me this question: would you prefer more often updates, but generally shorter in length, or more infrequent updates but longer in length. This would be considered a short update.

As a sidenote, I do have another Biden Timeline on the Alternate History Wiki called Beau Lives. I haven't done much with that since the more constrained style (the Wikipedia perspective and the present day limitation) means that there is less to do in general on that site with that timeline.
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America Needs R'hllor
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« Reply #4 on: August 11, 2017, 03:58:46 AM »

Hm, I think that if this is short, short updates are fine.
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Edgeofnight
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« Reply #5 on: August 12, 2017, 02:45:18 PM »
« Edited: August 17, 2017, 11:44:11 AM by EdgeofNight »

November 26th

Massachusetts Senator Ed Markey for UN ambassador, Thomas Tidwell for EPA chief.
Longtime member of Congress, and Massachusetts junior senator Ed Markey, has been announced today as President-elect Biden’s choice to represent the United States in the UN. Markey currently serves on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and has represented Massachusetts on Capitol Hill since 1976, having served as the state’s junior senator since winning a special election to replace John Kerry in 2013. Markey’s office released a statement, accepting the President-elect’s offer. Markey will replace outgoing UN ambassador Sam Power, who will be nominated for the Secretary of State Position.  Meanwhile, Biden has tapped Thomas Tidwell to lead the Environmental Protection Agency...

During his career in politics, the Texas Junior Senator had discovered that he was very good at rubbing people the wrong way. Other conservatives, moderates, and liberals, all seemed to be very, very, mad at him. Stemming from his love-hate relationship with Donald Trump, Joe Walsh, the onetime Congressman, was on any talk radio show that would have to him, blaming Cruz for Trump’s defeat. Unfortunately, he wasn’t alone. Latest approval polling had Cruz with 47% approval, and despite a Democrat in the White House, the Castro brothers are polling within 4 points of him in a hypothetical match up. Worst of all, Katrina Pierson was crisscrossing Texas, hyping up a primary challenge to the Senator, one he wasn’t quite sure he could win. But the Texas Senator was not going to go out without a fight. Ted Cruz was emerging as the leader of the filibuster against Merrick Garland, a role that he openly embraced in an attempt to win back favor among conservatives, both back home, and across the country. After all, he knew he couldn't hold that seat open for another 4 years, but Republicans in Iowa didn't need to know that.




Warren looked over the list at her desk. As a member of President-elect Biden’s transition team, she has been giving significant say in the formation of the 46th president’s cabinet. Or at least, she was supposed to. Increasingly, the Massachusetts senior senator felt increasingly shut out of the process. The only position she had any input on was for the Vice Presidential slot, when she ruled herself out of it. She had been Biden’s first choice, but she wasn’t interested in the position, and she felt she could better control policy from the Senate. Still, sometimes she regrets her decision, especially now, as she was shut out from the cabinet formation. Sure, she provided token insight, but most of the nominees on this list wouldn’t be her first, second, or third picks. It wasn’t that he wasn’t qualified, it was that the optics of the appointment looked bad, and she didn’t like the idea of giving anything to the Republicans. Still, she had a feeling that her input wouldn’t matter much anyway, but that wasn’t going to stop her from voicing it. She thought deeply for a few minutes, before making a decision. She picked up the phone, and dialed the President-elect. After a brief, but unusually tense conversation, she called for Lacey Rose and asked her to prepare a statement.

Biden's currently announced nominees (* denotes retention)
  • State: Sam Power
  • Treasury:Jack Markell
  • Defense: Michele Flournoy
  • Interior: Sally Jewell*
  • Energy: Carol Browner
  • Veteran's Affairs: Joe Sestak
  • SCOTUS: Merrick Garland
  • UN: Ed Markey
  • EPA: Thomas Tidwell

November 28th
BREAKING:Warren Out; Massachusetts Senator resigns from the Biden Transition Team citing a “need for focus."

Today, Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren has announced her resignation from President-elect Joe Biden’s transition team, citing the need to focus on the upcoming Senate session. The senators decision comes as a surprise to many, including the President-elect himself. A spokesman for Steve Ricchetti, the incoming White House Chief of Staff and Biden’s campaign chairman, stated that “Speaking on behalf of the incoming administration, Senator Warren’s decision comes as a disappointment to the President-elect and the rest of the transition team. However, we accept Senator Warren’s resignation, and thank her for her continued support as the Vice President prepares to take the Oath of Office.” The resignation has fueled speculation about division within the Democratic Party and the incoming administration, which both President-elect Biden and Senator Warren have denied.
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Edgeofnight
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« Reply #6 on: August 16, 2017, 03:56:16 PM »

January 20th, 2017
The rest of the transition passes uneventfully.


Sessions was not surprised by the results of the Presidential election, but that doesn’t mean he wasn’t disappointed. Still, as President-elect Biden formed his cabinet, he couldn’t help but imagine how the Trump/Sessions transition would be faring right now. He can’t imagine very well, giving how the media has been treating Mr. Trump since the election. Not that he didn’t deserve some of it, the Senator thought to himself. Perhaps it is for the best. Now, the senator had a clear path to retirement and a life of leisure. Sure, he could run for president himself, but why would he want to. He would be 73 in 2020, almost as old as the President-elect. And the prospect of a two year long campaign wasn’t really something he was up for.  Especially with how many people were poised to run. His contacts across the Hill confirmed that at least 20 sitting members of Congress were considering running, and who knows how many Governors, Mayors, CEOs, and Celebrities were thinking themselves Presidential candidates. Still, when Politico polled Republican voters, Sessions found himself as the closest thing the Republicans had to a front runner:
Politico/Morning Consultant - 2020 Republican Presidential Primaries (December 2016)
  • Jeff Sessions - 12%
    John Kasich - 11%
    Paul Ryan - 11%
    Ted Cruz - 10%
    Donald Trump - 8%
    Other/Unsure - 48%
And while that certainly peaked the Senator’s interest, the primaries were still four years out, and plenty would change before then. And Sessions saw the prospect of lounging back home in Sunny Alabama more appealing than shaking hands in the cold winter of New Hampshire.

When he was first approached to join the ticket, Sherrod was a tad shocked. He had been aware that he was in consideration, but the other finalists (Senators Warren and Murphy) all seemed to be in stronger positions than the Ohio Senator. Warren brought more name recognition and a gender balance to the ticket, while Murphy was a young, rising star within the party. He also felt hesitant about giving up his seat in the Senate. Giving up his seat to another Anti-Obamacare, Anti-Climate, Republican stooge was not a burden he wanted to place on Ohioans. But how could he say no to Joe Biden, a friend and colleague for so many years? But even as Sherrod Brown prepared to become Vice President, he was unsure of his role in the incoming administration. Would he be a trusted advisor, or just a pretty face? The question had lingered in the new Vice President’s mind…

“I, Joseph Robinette Biden Jr., do solemnly swear, that I will faithfully execute the Office of President of the United States, and will to the best of my ability, preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States. So help me God.”

President Joe Biden of Delaware takes office with a 55% approval rating and a 31% disapproval 

Full cabinet (Italics denotes retention, Bold denotes confirmed upon Biden's inauguration)
  • State:Sam Power
  • Treasury:Jack Markell
  • Defense: Michele Flournoy
  • Justice:Tom Perez
  • Interior: Sally Jewel
  • Commerce:Ron Kirk
  • Labor: Chris Lu
  • HUD: Eric Garcetti
  • HHS: Howard Dean
  • Energy: Carol Browner
  • Transportation: Anthony Foxx
  • Education: Tom Torlakson
  • Homeland: Lisa Monaco
  • National Security Advisor: James Stradvis
  • UN: Ed Markey
  • EPA:Thomas Tidwell
  • SCOTUS: Merrick Garland

Next part will cover: The Supreme Court nomination, First 100 Days policy goals, and the first part of the 2017 elections.

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Lord Admirale
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« Reply #7 on: August 16, 2017, 09:58:26 PM »

I think Biden would appoint a token Republican or two, but good update nonetheless.
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Edgeofnight
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« Reply #8 on: August 20, 2017, 06:38:41 PM »

The long awaited next part:

The 2017 Elections
New York City Mayoral (Biden 83.4% - Trump 13.7%)

Incumbent Mayor Bill De Blasio will seek re-election to a second term. His main primary opposition comes from Tony Avella, a New York State Senator, and Bo Dietl, a fox news contributor and former NYPD detective. On the Republican side, there is no clear candidate. Paul Massey currently leads the field, and John Catsimatidis, State Senator Nicole Malliotakis, Donald Trump Jr., and City Councilman Eric Ulrich, are all high-profile Republicans considering running against the embattled incumbent. De Blasio’s approval ratings remain lukewarm at best, and allegations of corruption haunt him as US Attorney Preet Bharara probes his office. Republicans hope these two factors can make the race competitive, even as De Blasio out raises his chief challenger 2 to 1. Little polling exists currently, but what does exist all shows Blasio with a comfortable lead.
  • Cook:Likely D
  • Sabato: Likely D
  • RCP: Likely D

New Jersey Gubernatorial (Biden 57.4% - Trump 40.1%)
Incumbent Governor and 2016 Presidential Candidate Chris Christie is term limited and can not seek a third term. Christie has historically low approval ratings, and incumbent President Joe Biden carried the state by 17 points, giving Democrats hope that they can flip this seat back to their column. Leading Republican Candidate is Lieutenant Governor and Secretary of State Kim Guadagno, though she faces a strong primary challenger from Jack Ciattarelli, an Anti-Christie Republican. Leading Democratic Hopeful is Former Ambassador and Goldman Sachs executive Phil Murphy,  faced by several challengers, the most notable of which is John Wisniewski, a long time state Assemblyman and a leader in the Bridgegate investigation. Early polling suggests an easy race for either democratic candidate. Murphy soundly trumps Guadagno (59% - 34%) and Ciattarelli (56% - 36%), as does Wisniewski (59% - 35% against Guadagno and 55% - 35% against Ciattarelli).
  • Cook:Likely D
  • Sabato: Likely D
  • RCP: Likely D

Virginia Gubernatorial (Biden 52.5% - Trump 43.9%)
Incumbent Democrat Terry McAuliffe is term limited, and can not seek a second consecutive term in office. Democrats have won Virginia in the past three Presidential elections, and 2009 was the last time Republicans won a statewide election in the state, making Democrats hopeful that they can hold the Governor’s Mansion. Incumbent Terry McAuliffe has held luke-warm approval ratings as of late. Incumbent Lieutenant Governor Ralph Northam is leading the Democratic primary, challenged by former Congressman and Diplomat Tom Perriello. On the Republican side, Former RNC Chair Ed Gillespie, who nearly unseated Senator Mark Warner,  holds a comfortable lead in the Republican Primary, though challenger and Trump-ally Corey Stewart, Chairman of the Prince William Board of County Supervisors is gaining momentum. General election polling has both Northam and Perriello easily defeating Stewart (47% - 40% and 49% - 39% respectively). A potential race between Northam and Gillespie would be far more competitive (44% - 42%). On the other hand, a race between Perriello and Gillespie would be far more favorable to the Democrats (47% - 40%). Regardless, the race remains in flux, and the primaries could influence the rating of this race.
  • Cook:Tossup
  • Sabato: Tossup
  • RCP: Lean D

Massachusetts Class Two U.S Senator (Special) (Biden 61.0% - Trump 33.8%)
Should Senator Ed Markey be confirmed as UN Ambassador  by the senate (which currently seems likely), a Special election would be necessary to replace him until the end of his regularly scheduled Senate Term (January 2021). Governor Baker has yet to announce who he will appoint to fill the role, but has stated that there are four names in contention to fill the seat: Secretary of Administration and Finance Kristen Lepore, Lieutenant Governor Karyn Polito, Former State Senator Richard Tisei, and Former Governor Bill Weld. State Representative Geoff Dhiel has announced that he will run in the Republican Primary regardless of who is appointed to fill the seat. Several high ranking Republicans, including former White House Chief of Staff Andrew Card, have encouraged Governor Charlie Baker to run himself, though Baker has denied interest in the seat.  Democrats face a similarly uncertain field: Congressmen Mike Capuano, Seth Moulton, Joe Kennedy, and Steve Lynch have all expressed interest in running for the seat. State Senator Jamie Elbridge, Former State Senator Dan Wolf, Boston City Council President Michelle Wu, and Mayor Kim Driscoll have also begun exploring candidacies. “The prospect of an open senate seat is exciting to many in both parties,” said Boston Globe reporter Joshua Miller. Miller also mentioned Former Governor Deval Patrick and Congresswoman Katherine Clark as potential candidates. The race will not officially begin until after Markey resigns, after which the field of potential candidates will likely shrink significantly. While Republicans have fared poorly at the Presidential level, Republican Governor Charlie Baker maintains approval ratings in the low 70s and Scott Brown won the 2010 special election to replace Ted Kennedy, giving Republicans hope that they can flip this seat. Democrats remain confident that with so many strong candidates, they can hold this seat. No ratings currently exist for this seat, as the race has yet to begin.


BREAKING:DC Goes Nuclear: Senate Democrats remove Filibuster on Supreme Court Nominees.
Today, Democrats on Capitol Hill have changed the rules of Senate procedure to remove the filibuster on Supreme Court Nominees. This comes as a Republican filibuster, led by Texas Senator Ted Cruz, have remained committed to holding the vacancy on the court as long as possible.
After nine Republicans held together Thursday morning and filibustered President Biden ’s nominee, Democrats voted to lower the threshold for advancing Supreme Court nominations from 60 votes to a simple majority.

Senators point the blame at each other.

Cruz, the leader of the filibuster, issued a statement this morning saying; “The Democrats recent use of the so-called “Nuclear Option” only shows just how partisan we have allowed this country to become and shows a sicking willingness to disregard standard rules and procedure on the part of the Democrats.”
Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) shot back at Cruz, calling his statement “ironic” and saying that Cruz and his colleagues have forced this impasse.

Speaker Paul Ryan placed the blame on both parties for the increased partisanship; “I think it really speaks to how partisan we have allowed our country to become. We have a split government, there has to be some give and take, some compromise. We can’t keep running a government like this.”

Donald Trump lashed out on Twitter



DNC Chair Election: Martin O’Malley elected new Chair.

Former Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley (D-MD) triumphed over Congressman Keith Ellison (D-MN) on the second ballot. Ellison graciously conceded defeat on Twitter and called on his supporters to support O’Malley for the sake of party unity. O’Malley thanked Ellison for his support, and promised to lead the party to continued victories.


The legislative agenda for the first 100 days followed a traceable pattern. Democrats in the Senate passed a bill, Republicans in the House voted it down. Less direct obstruction than filibustering in the senate, but obstruction none the less. But the Biden administration still set an ambitious goal for the first 100 days. Infrastructure, Green Energy, Healthcare, and gun control, the only area where Biden succeeded was on the first one. Moderate House Republicans allied with their Democratic counterparts and passed a bill increasing Federal Infrastructure spending, particularly targeting the industrial midwest. All other Biden efforts died on the Hill. Thus, like Obama before him, Biden was forced to govern by executive order. Within the first 100 days, Biden signed an executive order increasing Federal Minimum wage to 10$ an hour, and introduced legislation to increase minimum wage to 12.50$ an hour, that ultimately died. Still, for those in the Democratic party concerned Biden would not be Progressive enough can rest easy. Biden actively endorsed and lobbied for a Single-Payer Healthcare bill, introduced by Senators Sanders, Kander, Feingold, and Warren (that ultimately died in the House after narrowly passing the Senate 50-48 with two Abstaining). Biden also successfully confirmed Garland to the Supreme Court,  53- 47 with two abstaining. All of Biden's remaining nominees where successfully confirmed, and Governor Baker appointed former Governor Bill Weld to fill the seat, who declared his candidacy for the seat shortly after.


Next time: The Democrats running for Markey's seat, and some developments in the NYC mayoral race.

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MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #9 on: August 20, 2017, 09:03:41 PM »

This is so good
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Edgeofnight
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« Reply #10 on: August 20, 2017, 09:16:38 PM »

Thank you so much!
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« Reply #11 on: August 20, 2017, 10:39:03 PM »

I expect Biden's minimum wage order to be challenged in the courts. If Obama couldn't force states to take the medicare expansion, I can't possibly see how Biden can force them to increase their minimum wages to $10.00/hr.

Also, I think it would be smart for the Biden administration to take another jab at healthcare. Instead this time they should focus on working with moderate Republicans to tweak the current problems with Obamacare. If he could get an infrastructure bill through, this should certainly be doable.




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Edgeofnight
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« Reply #12 on: August 21, 2017, 11:49:41 PM »

I expect Biden's minimum wage order to be challenged in the courts. If Obama couldn't force states to take the medicare expansion, I can't possibly see how Biden can force them to increase their minimum wages to $10.00/hr.

Also, I think it would be smart for the Biden administration to take another jab at healthcare. Instead this time they should focus on working with moderate Republicans to tweak the current problems with Obamacare. If he could get an infrastructure bill through, this should certainly be doable.


I actually plan on covering both of these things in the update after this one, so keep reading.


Massachusetts Special Election: Meet the Candidates



Each Parties' leading candidate

The special election to replace Senator Ed Markey officially began last week, when Ed Markey was confirmed as UN ambassador. Currently, five Democrats are running for the seat. The candidates, listed by their order in the polls:

  • Congressman Joe Kennedy III, from the fourth congressional district.
  • Congressman Seth Moulton, from the sixth congressional district.
  • Congressman Stephen Lynch, from the eighth congressional district.
  • State Senator James Elbridge, from Middlesex and Worcester district.
  • Congressman Mike Capuano, from the seventh district.

Currently, Kennedy holds a comfortable lead, the most recent Boston Globe poll has the Fourth District’s Congressman up 31%-11%-9%-7%-4% with 38% undecided. However, the biggest challenge all of these candidates face is name recognition. Despite being related to the famous Kennedy family, only 1 in 3 likely voters know of Kennedy. The situation for Moulton and Lynch is even worse (1 in 4 and 1 in 6 respectively). Kennedy is also out raising all other candidates 2:1 at least.

On the Republican side:
  • Incumbent Senator and former Governor Bill Weld.
  • State Representative Geoff Dhiel, of Plymouth’s 7th District.

Incumbent Republican Bill Weld is also facing a primary challenger, from State Representative Geoff Dhiel. Weld, who endorsed Joe Biden for President, has been labelled a fake Republican by his opponent. Polling shows the race to be heavily favoring Weld, 46% - 35% with 19% undecided.

In a head to head match up between the two front runners, Kennedy narrowly trounces Weld, 47.8% to 47.0%. Meanwhile Kennedy crushes Dhiel 64% to 19%, and Weld trounces Moulton 49% to 44%.


Ulrich declares bid for NYC mayor as Massey exits, Trump declines to run.



Queens City Councilman Eric Ulrich has declared his bid for the City’s highest office this past Tuesday. As he entered, Republican front runner Paul Massey withdrew from the Race and endorsed Urlich. Donald Trump Jr, who was also considering a run himself, declined early today on twitter, and endorsed Democratic candidate Bo Dietl. Fellow Republican Nicole Malliotakis, who was previously considering a run herself, endorsed Ulrich, leaving Ulrich’s only challenger as perennial candidate Rocky de La Fuente. Ulrich is expected to easily win the Republican primary. On the Democratic side, Mayor De Blasio faces several primary challengers, as his approval ratings remain stagnant.



Virginia Primaries suggest both parties divided.

Today, former Presidential candidate Donald Trump made his endorsement in the Virginia Gubernatorial primary, backing Corey Stewart for the Republican nomination. This comes as former RNC chair Ed Gillespie leads most opinion polls currently taken. The move suggests deep divides within the Republican Party. Ed Gillespie, the Republican front runner, is very much a traditional National Republican. He shies from controversy and negative press, opposes Green Energy and Gun Control, Supports Privatization. His personality and politics are very much in line with George and Jeb Bush. Meanwhile, Corey Stewart, the Chairman of the Prince William’s Board of County Supervisors, represents the spirit of Donald Trump’s presidential campaign. He calls for a massive crackdown on illegal immigration, the end to various free trade deals, and certainly doesn’t avoid press or controversy of any kind. A bombastic populist, Stewart has come under fire for calling his primary opponents “cuckservatives.” To continue the national analogy, distant third place candidate Frank Wagner, a state senator from Virginia Beach, can be seen as a loose analogue for John Kasich, with his down to earth approach and more principled nature.'

While the divisions are less pronounced, the Democrats are still dealing with their own infighting. A vocal minority within the party want to see the Democrats embrace the populist, progressive left that drove Senator Sander’s short lived Presidential campaign, and former Congressman Tom Perriello channels this passion in his campaign for the Governor’s Mansion. Ralph Northam, the Democratic front runner, falls more in line with the views of President Biden than Senators Sanders or Warren. Many worries about division within the party stem from Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren’s withdrawal from the Presidential Transition team.  Still,  even as many democratic politicians claim the division is overstated and that civil disagreement is healthy and natural for the party, voters feel differently.

Next part: President Biden hits a snare (or several), The Republican's first 2020 candidate, the Virginia, New Jersey, and Massachusetts Primaries, and some more on Donald Trump.

I'm still fairly new at this, so feedback would be great. Also, if anyone knows how to edit the sizes of images, the inconsistency is bothering me. Anyway, next few updates should be a bit longer since I have more time this week, but as school and work pick up expect the parts to get shorter again.
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BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #13 on: August 22, 2017, 10:02:36 AM »

The election we wanted but didn't deserve.
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« Reply #14 on: August 22, 2017, 10:31:26 AM »

The election we wanted but didn't deserve.
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« Reply #15 on: August 22, 2017, 12:03:56 PM »

Great timeline!
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« Reply #16 on: August 25, 2017, 11:38:01 PM »

when can we expect the next update?
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Edgeofnight
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« Reply #17 on: August 26, 2017, 02:06:02 AM »
« Edited: August 28, 2017, 08:52:52 PM by EdgeofNight »

So stuff came up IRL, so this is a rushed version of what I wanted to go up. Its unfortunate but I know that if this doesn't go up tonight, it won't go up until Tuesday at the earliest. So I am sorry this isn't as good as I wanted it. And this isn't directed at you, no one rushed me into this, its just I have double shifts tomorrow and the day after, and Monday I will be away from my computer until late in the night, at which point I won't want to write much.  Anyway, here it is I guess.


Challenges to president Biden’s agenda.

President Biden’s 100 day Agenda has mostly been blocked in Congress. What the president has accomplished hasn’t gone over smoothly.  His executive order to raise the national minimum wage has been challenged in the courts. His attempts to reform health-care have been stonewalled by a Republican House and a swath of potential Presidential rivals, looking to improve their brand with every vote. Still, Biden remained determined. His success in passing an infrastructure package showed that he could still lead with a split government, if not from the left than from the political center. Things had to get done somehow, and several different proposals for a new Healthcare bill making the way through Congress. A bipartisan bill was in the works by Tom Reed (R-NY) and Josh Gottheimer (D-NJ)*, the likelihood of it passing the Senate tanked when Sanders and Warren both raised doubts about the bill. Another bill proposed was to introduce a Public Option was proposed by Senator Merkley (D-OR), but Manchin and Donnelly both voiced concerns, meaning they would be one vote short on the bill until after the Special election in Massachusetts. Even then, forcing Sherrod Brown to use his tiebreaking powers wouldn’t look good, and that isn’t considering the fight in the House. Ultimately, short one vote, Democrats and President Biden would need to focus on aspects of Biden’s agenda which would attract bipartisan support. With disorder in Venezuela, Biden had the perfect opportunity to steer the public focus away from domestic policy and towards foreign policy.  All Biden had to figure out is what he should do in Venezuela, and even then, there was also the Russian question.**

The 2017 Elections, June/July 2017
New York City Mayoral (Biden 83.4% - Trump 13.7%)

Incumbent Mayor Bill De Blasio will seek re-election to a second term, and little has changed on the Democratic side, as De Blasio continues to lead Tony Avella, a New York State Senator, and Bo Dietl, a Fox news contributor and former NYPD detective.  On the Republican side, a massive shake up has occurred.  Paul Massey, who was considered the front runner for the Republican nomination, withdrew suddenly in April as City Councilman Eric Ulrich entered the race. Most of Ulrich's potential challengers ruled out their own bids shortly after his announcement. With a nearly uncontested primary, and a top tier challenger, Republicans are hopeful that they can regain this mayoralty. The last Republican to win in NYC was Michael Bloomberg, who left the Republican Party during his tenure and endorsed the Democratic Presidential candidate in the past two elections. Still, Ulrich has secured Bloomberg's support, which in some eyes increases his chances at dethroning the embattled Democrat.
  • Cook:Likely D
  • Sabato: Lean D
  • RCP: Lean D

New Jersey Gubernatorial (Biden 57.4% - Trump 40.1%)
Lieutenant Governor Kim Guadagno defeated her primary opponent and State Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli by a comfortable margin of 45%-31%. On the Democratic side, Former Ambassador Phil Murphy defeated his second place opponent, former United States Under Secretary of the Treasury Jim Johnson, 48%-22%. With incumbent Governor and Republican Chris Christie’s massive unpopularity in the state, democrats expect an easy victory. Guadango trails Murphy by 20 points (60%-39%), and Murphy is massively outspending the Lieutenant Governor and Secretary of State by 40%. Although New Jersey typically elects governors of the opposite party to the President, Phil Murphy seems set to break that trend.
  • Cook:Likely D
  • Sabato: Likely D
  • RCP: Likely D

Virginia Gubernatorial (Biden 52.5% - Trump 43.9%)
Incumbent Lieutenant Governor Ralph Northam triumphed over former Congressman Tom Perriello 58%-42% in the Democratic Primary, beating back his populist challenger by a comfortable margin. On the Republican side, Ed Gillespie was not as lucky. The former RNC chairman lost to his populist challenger Chairman of the Prince William’s Board of County Supervisors Corey Stewart 43.6%-43.4%, a less than 1% margin. Northam and Stewart will, along with several minor third parties, face off in the November general election. Northam holds a clear and consistent lead in opinion polling (48% - 41%) and in fundraising.  Northam has more money on hand and is outspending Stewart by 20%. Still, Stewart remains confident that he can defeat Northam in the general election, citing his upset over Gillespie as evidence that he can outperform polling and claims that his internal polling shows him ahead (though these polls haven’t been made public).
  • Cook:Lean D
  • Sabato: Likely D
  • RCP: Lean D

Massachusetts Class Two U.S Senator (Special) (Biden 61.0% - Trump 33.8%)
Congressman Joe Kennedy III won the Democratic primary with 40% of the vote, defeating his nearest challenger, fellow congressman Seth Moulton, by 8%. On the Republican side, State Representative Geoff Diehl scored an upset over incumbent Senator Bill Weld, defeating the former Governor 51%-49%, shocking pollsters and pundits who all predicted a comfortable victory for Weld. Despite Weld polling competitively with Kennedy, all polling suggests that Kennedy will defeat Diehl by a large margin (60% - 28%), though Scott Brown’s upset victory over Martha Coakley back in 2010 gives some Republicans hope that they can pull off an upset. However, with neither Baker nor Weld supporting Diehl it seems unlikely that he will have much chance.
  • Cook:Likely D
  • Sabato: Likely D
  • RCP: Likely D

And the Republican’s first 2020 candidate is...


Former Illinois Congressman Joe Walsh officially declared his candidacy in a trip to Iowa last weekend. Walsh spoke at a Turning Point USA event, doubling down on his intentions to seek the Republican Presidential nomination in the next cycle. Walsh is a popular figure in the Tea Party movement, and served a single term as an Illinois Congressman before he was defeated for reelection in 2012. Since leaving Congress, Walsh has worked as a conservative talk radio host, and has traveled the country, becoming a public speaker for various conservative groups and causes. Walsh has also been the subject of numerous controversies, including an alleged threat to both Former President Obama and Incumbent President Joe Biden. When asked for comments, Walsh described himself as "somewhere between Ted Cruz and Donald Trump." However, Walsh lacks the name recognition of those two. Only 1 in 13 Americans polled could correctly identify Walsh based on his congressional portrait, and only 1 in 6 Republicans could do the same.


Donald Trump’s end goal.


Since losing last November's Presidential election, many have been questioning what exactly Donald Trump has been up to. Trump seems to be waging a one man war to control the Republican Party, a war that he seems to be winning. In June, three states held statewide primary elections, and in two of them, Trump backed candidates came out on top. In Virginia, the brash populist Corey Stewart prevailed over former RNC Chairman Ed Gillespie, despite Gillespie securing the backing of most of the Republican establishment, including Senators Tom Cotton and Marco Rubio. In Massachusetts, the special election to replace UN ambassador Ed Markey in the Senate, Trump-backer Geoff Diehl won the Republican primary over the moderate former Governor and incumbent Senator Bill Weld. To many pundits and media outlets, Trump’s widespread support for his ideological allies was a tell tale sign of one thing; Trump wasn't giving up on making America great again….


Author's Note*: This bill is nearly identical to the OTL/IRL proposal made by the same lawmakers. The split government accelerates the creation of the bill, and the employer mandate is changed to 200 instead of 500 like the real bill. Shortly after the proposal, Warren, Sanders, and several members of the House Progressive Caucus expressed concerns about the bill.

Author's Note**:Revelations about Russian interference in the 2016 election isn't less, and the issue isn't less important in this reality, but the reaction is different with a non-Clinton Democrat in the White House. Public opinion is much less inflamed over the issue, and several of the revelations that occurred in 2017 either haven't been made public or haven't caught as much attention. Also, obviously some events are butterflied out completely, such as the Reality Winner Leak.

Next time: 2018 Ratings, Iowa and New Hampshire get some visitors, Democratic Primary Reform and either a foreign policy piece or some analysis on the Mass Special election. If no one expresses interest in one or the other, I will probably flip a coin. As always, feedback is appreciated.






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Edgeofnight
EdgeofNight
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« Reply #18 on: August 31, 2017, 01:34:26 AM »
« Edited: September 08, 2017, 01:36:43 PM by EdgeofNight »

So after writing out the entirety of this part, I realized I didn't like how it turned out and scrapped it. So this is the third or fourth rewrite of this part. If you desperate to see something a Governor's race covered, let me know and I will add it on. Senate ratings will be up tomorrow or Friday.



2020 Prospects: Republicans lack leaders as Democrat's cohesion weakens.

Today, Politico released a  poll for 2020, asking Republicans to specify their presidential preference.
  • Texas Sen. Ted Cruz - 9%
  • Donald Trump - 9%
  • Ohio Gov. John Kasich - 7%
  • Alabama Sen. Jeff Sessions - 7%
  • Speaker Paul Ryan - 6%
  • Florida Sen. Marco Rubio - 5%
  • Nebraska Sen. Ben Sasse - 3%
  • Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul - 2%
  • Unsure/Undecided/Other - 50%

The poll shows two critical weaknesses for the party. First, their is a distinct lack of leader for the Republican party. For prespective, in 2013, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, then the Republican frontrunner, was polling in and around 15 - 30%. In this latest poll, not a single candidate broke 10%. Secondly, the leading three candidates are a re-hash of the 2016 primary, where in real estate mogul Donald Trump defeated 17 other challengers for the nomination in what turned into a protracted political bloodbath. Such a primary could damage the Republican chances at winning back the White House. Even as President Joe Biden remains silent on a re-election campaign, the Democratic incumbent spoke before Iowa Democrats last month, helping fundraise for local elections, a move that drew ire from both aisles. And not all Democrats are happy with Biden's performance. Congressman Ro Khanna said in an interview that Biden "absolutely" should face a primary challenger, recommending Senators Sanders or Warren for the foil to the incumbent President. Khanna claims that the Biden administration is "not committed to progressive values," while in response, Senator Warren denied interest in challenging the incumbent president, and offered praise of President Biden. "He was a big help in passing Single-Payer in the Senate. What happened in the House was unfortunate, but the President did the best he can to get that bill through, and I am glad to see he is on the right side with healthcare," said Massachusetts senior senator.
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Edgeofnight
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« Reply #19 on: August 31, 2017, 01:34:49 AM »
« Edited: August 31, 2017, 11:34:24 AM by EdgeofNight »

2018 Ratings: Gubernatorial elections



Tossups:
Alaska (Trump 50.6% - Biden 37.2%)
Incumbent Independent Governor Bill Walker has indicated that he will seek another term as an independent. Walker has had poor approval ratings, with the most recent polling holding him with 42% approval with a 48% disapproval rate. Two republicans have currently announced their intentions to seek the Republican nomination. Former U.S magistrate judge Joe Miller leads over State Senator Mike Dunleavy. For the Democrats, the potential to endorse Walker remains a possibility, even as former U.S Senator Mark Begich considers a run. The unique situation in Alaska makes the race unpredictable, with both parties and Walker believing that they have a clear shot to victory.

Connecticut (Biden 56.3% - Trump 40.2%)
Incumbent Democratic Governor Dan Malloy is eligible to seek a third term, but has declined to do so. Malloy suffers from historically low approval ratings, with over 6/10 Connecticut voters disapproving of Malloy’s performance. The only major democrat currently running is Middletown Mayor Dan Drew, although Lieutenant Governor Nancy Wyman and State Comptroller Kevin Lembo are also exploring candidacies. The leading Republicans are David M. Walker, former United States Comptroller General, and New Britain Mayor Erin Stewart. Drew holds a narrow lead over both Walker and Stewart (47% - 46% and 46% - 44% respectively), though both Lembo and Wyman trail their GOP challengers.

Florida (Biden 49.7% - Trump 48.8%)
Incumbent Republican Governor Rick Scott is term limited, and can not seek a third term in office. The frontrunner for the Republican nomination to replace Scott is Andrew Putnam, the Florida Commissioner of Agriculture and a former U.S. Rep. He is facing State Senator Jack Latvala in the primary. Former U.S. Rep Gwen Graham is the Democratic frontrunner, and she is challenged by Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum. While Latvala trails both his democratic opponents (43% - 40% and 45% - 39% respectively) Putnam is a far more competitive opponent, polling even with Graham and running 1 point ahead of Gillum (36% - 36% and 37% - 36% respectively). Democrats are expected to heavily target this seat, as Florida has voted Democratic in the last three presidential elections, albeit by decreasing margins each time.

Iowa (Trump 50.5% - Biden 44.6%)
Incumbent Governor Terry Branstad is eligible to seek another term, but has declined to do so in the face of falling approval ratings. Incumbent Lieutenant Governor Kim Reynolds is leading the pack to replace Branstad, and she faces two primary challengers, including Cedar Rapids Mayor Ron Corbett. On the Democratic side, State Senator Nate Boulton is the candidate to beat, followed by former Chairwoman of the Iowa Democratic Party Andy McGuire. With Branstad’s low approval ratings, Democrats hope they can pull out a win. However, Trump carried the state by nearly 6 points in the last general election, leaving Republicans optimistic about their chances.

Maine (Biden 49.7 % - Trump 45.6%)

Incumbent Republican Governor Paul LePage is term limited, and can not seek a third term in office. LePage’s approval ratings have been poor throughout most of his second term, giving Democrats hope they can flip this seat. The current leading Republican is Mary Mayhew, former Maine Commissioner of Health and Human Services, although popular U.S Senator Susan Collins is considering a run. Leading Democrat is State Attorney General Janet Mills, followed by Former State House Speaker Mark Eves. Independent State Treasurer Terry Hayes is also running. In 2016, voters approved a Ranked Choice Voting ballot initiative, however, the Maine Supreme Court has ruled that ranked choice voting would be unconstitutional, starting a legal battle over the format of the election. Many democrats feel that, with LePage's poor tenure, they can capture the Governorship. Although, the prospect of a Susan Collins candidacy has many democrats skeptical they can pull off a win on election night.

New Hampshire (Biden 48.0% - Trump 46.4%)
Incumbent Democratic Governor Colin Van Ostern is seeking re-election to a second term. Ostern narrowly defeated Executive Councillor Chris Sununu, however Sununu has ruled out a rematch, and will instead run for Congress in New Hampshire’s first district. Ostern has mildly high approval ratings, with 53% of New Hampshire voters approving of his performance. As of August 2017, no Republicans have declared their intentions to run, though Frank Edelblut, a former State Rep. and a candidate for Governor in 2016, is exploring a run. Former U.S Sen. Kelly Ayotte is also considered a potential candidate. Despite the lack of candidates, the closeness of the Granite state in 2016 has led many Republicans to focus on the state as a key target for the 2018 midterms.

Ohio (Biden 48.7% - Trump 48.0%)

Incumbent Governor and 2016 Presidential Candidate John Kasich is term limited, and can not seek a third term in office. Leading Republican to replace Kasich is State Attorney General and former U.S Senator Mike DeWine, followed by State Secretary of State Jon Husted. Leading Democrats are Former U.S. Rep. Betty Sutton, followed by State Senator and former Minority Leader Joe Schiavoni, and former State Attorney General and Director of the CFPB Richard Cordray is also considering a run. In recent years, Ohio has been a bellwether state, backing the winning Presidential candidate in every election since 1964. While Democrats have won the state the past three presidential elections, Republicans have had success at the state level in recent years. Republican U.S. Senator Rob Portman won re-election by a wide margin despite the state voting against the Republican presidential nominee, and Governor Kasich won twice, winning a landslide in 2014. An divisive primary on both sides leads the future of this race uncertain.

Pennsylvania (Biden 50.3% - Trump 47.8%)
Incumbent Democratic Governor Tom Wolf will seek a second term in office. Wolf’s first term has been marked by rocky approval ratings, as he battles a Republican dominated legislature. State Senator Scott Wagner is running in the GOP primary, and is facing businessman Paul Mango for the nomination. Pennsylvania has been a battleground state in recent years, and both parties are expected to target the state heavily. Although Trump lost the Keystone state, he improved on Romney’s 2012 share and Wolf’s embattled first term has led Republicans to believe that a top tier candidate could recapture the State Government trifecta they lost in 2014.


Just discovered the character limit was a thing. Next part will cover the Senate Ratings and the generic House ballot. After that, I will do foreign policy in regard to North Korea, Hurricane Harvey, and the 2017 Elections.
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