Assuming no Left Wing third party and Trump runs on that sort of Platform as a Democrat with i assume more centrist or centre left Economic and Social Views due to the fact that he is running as a Democrat:
Donald J. Trump/Tom Vilsack - 317 EV 49.84%Ted Cruz/Tom Cotton - 221 EV 48.56%Trump Wins with his wins in the Rust Belt and Upper South.
His Populist Views rile up the Unions and the Working Classes in the Midwestern States winning easily in states like Michigan and Wisconsin winning 54-44 and 55-43% in each of those States.
The Only states under 50% in the Region are Ohio due to its Swing State Status and Minnesota due to Trumps Massive nonperformance in Milwaukee and its Suburbs and its Low turnout though he does do well in tradition republican rural county's.
In the Upper south he does great for a democrat using his populism and protectionism to his advantaged holding the Republicans under 60% throughout much of the South surprisingly against a SoCon Southern Republican Ticket.
Trump comes close in Indiana (53-45%), Missouri (52-46%), and also good in West Virginia and Kentucky getting 56-42% and 55%-44%.
However since it was a Southern ticket, Cruz won North Carolina. Trump also won Florida as a Bonus due to a so called second home effect and good performances in the Southeast and Central Regions for a Democrat.
Virginia is very close decided within 1.5% due to Massive drop-offs in votes in NOVA and Richmond. Cruz makes that up out west where combined Depressed Liberal and Minority Turnout and Popular Opinion against Trumps Populism allow for Cruz to win Colorado and Nevada by 1.1% and 1.8%. Cruz barely loses New Mexico 50-47%. Californian Low turnout combined with nearly 60% support for Cruz in Texas allow for the Popular Vote to Lean Republican though Trump still wins the Popular vote.
