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Author Topic: Who are the future of the British Conservative Party post-May?  (Read 674 times)
bronz4141
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« on: August 11, 2017, 04:50:10 pm »
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It looks like the British Conservative Party under Theresa May is heading on it's way to another wilderness era like the Tories were under post-Major/Hague/IDS/Howard era. After David Cameron's 2015 reelection win, the Brexit vote that ended his premiership and Theresa May's takeover of the Conservative Party and the horrendous decision to have a snap 2017 election post-Brexit.

Who are the future of the British Conservative Party post-May?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/07/06/theresa-may-lame-horse-furious-tory-ministers-warn-amid-claims/

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/816826/theresa-may-tory-conservative-death-row-election-jeremy-corbyn-robert-halfon-lynton-crosby
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mileslunn
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« Reply #1 on: August 11, 2017, 05:11:24 pm »
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It looks like the British Conservative Party under Theresa May is heading on it's way to another wilderness era like the Tories were under post-Major/Hague/IDS/Howard era. After David Cameron's 2015 reelection win, the Brexit vote that ended his premiership and Theresa May's takeover of the Conservative Party and the horrendous decision to have a snap 2017 election post-Brexit.

Who are the future of the British Conservative Party post-May?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/07/06/theresa-may-lame-horse-furious-tory-ministers-warn-amid-claims/

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/816826/theresa-may-tory-conservative-death-row-election-jeremy-corbyn-robert-halfon-lynton-crosby

Perhaps George Osborne as somewhat younger or maybe Boris Johnson as he is from London which swung quite heavily against the Tories or even Zac Goldsmith.  A real big catch would be Ruth Davidson who is very popular in Scotland, but not sure if popularity in Scotland translates into England as Gordon Brown gained in Scotland but lost in England.

I don't think the Tories losing the next election is a foregone conclusion for a few reasons.

1.  With the re-distribution the boundaries should be slightly more favourable to the Tories although only 5-10 seats.

2.  Labour needs 64 extra seats to win a majority and that means winning ones they lost by over 10 points as well as probably some where the Tories got over 50%.

3.  Jeremy Corbyn is quite left wing so no matter how unpopular the Tories become he will have a much tougher time than Tony Blair did in pulling away soft Tories

4.  While I know many don't trust Tony Blair, I saw a recent interview with him and he wasn't sure the coalition Corbyn won can stick.  The industrial north voted heavily leave and if Corbyn endorses staying in the single market which means free mobility of labour (EU has been clear UK cannot remain in the single market without allowing free mobility of labour) much of that could swing over to UKIP.  By contrast his big gains amongst college educated, London, and university towns were people who oppose Brexit so not demanding Britain stay in the single market could cause them to go over to the Liberal Democrats and if the Liberal Democrat gains come all from Labour the Tories can then fall below 40% and still win a majority.

5.  The Tories assumed it was obvious to everyone he was too left wing so never properly attacked his fiscal policies, while next time around will go a lot harder after them.

6.  A lot of Labour voters were protest votes who wanted to punish the Tories, but weren't ready to hand the keys of 10 Downing Street to Corbyn but since no one thought he stood a chance at winning, many safely assumed they could vote Labour to punish the Tories without them actually winning.  Now that there is a realistic chance of them winning people will think twice about voting for them.

That being said I still think Corbyn could very well win the next election, but it is not a foregone conclusion and with the decline of third parties I don't think a landslide for either side Like 1983 for the Tories or 1997 for Labour is realistic.  You need third parties to do better for this to happen as it seems both parties pretty much have a ceiling around 45%.

So I think the Tories like anyone who has been in power has their issues, but they are not in as bad a shape as they were under Tony Blair or Labour was in the 80s.  And if you want to talk about Conservative parties in bad shape in the English speaking world, that would go to Canada without question where the Tories at least federally do face major problems whereas the British Tories I don't think are yet at the stage but depending on how Brexit goes that could change.  Never mind they are in much better shape than the GOP was in 2008 or Liberal Party of Australia in 2007 and yet both bounced back fairly quickly.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #2 on: August 11, 2017, 07:24:38 pm »
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Dominic Grieve, Damian Green, Elizabeth Truss, and Nicky Morgan all seem likely to me.



mileslun, are you aware that Osborne retired?
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Ray Goldfield
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« Reply #3 on: August 11, 2017, 09:35:27 pm »
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I'm unsure there'll be a British Conservative party post-May if they lose the next election.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #4 on: August 12, 2017, 11:56:50 pm »
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Dominic Grieve, Damian Green, Elizabeth Truss, and Nicky Morgan all seem likely to me.



mileslun, are you aware that Osborne retired?

I am aware but I also know that if someone is seen as well helpful for them, they will get a lot of pressure to jump back in and sometimes they change their mind.  He may say no for now, but that can change if polls show he is the most likely to win amongst the choices in a general election.  This may surprise many, but here in Canada Trudeau back in 2012 said he wasn't interested in the Liberal leadership and it was only after several polls showed he was the only Liberal who could beat the Tories that he jumped in.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #5 on: August 12, 2017, 11:58:24 pm »
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I'm unsure there'll be a British Conservative party post-May if they lose the next election.

Off course there will be.  There is always a strong element of British society on the political right so they won't disappear and they are not in nearly the dire straits they were around 1997.  The British Tories have never gotten under 30% and three times in the last century gotten less than 35% so unless the Liberal Democrats pick up a lot (which is unlikely) I am pretty sure the Tories win or lose will get at least in the upper 30s at minimum.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #6 on: August 13, 2017, 12:32:24 pm »
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I'm unsure there'll be a British Conservative party post-May if they lose the next election.

Off course there will be.  There is always a strong element of British society on the political right so they won't disappear and they are not in nearly the dire straits they were around 1997.  The British Tories have never gotten under 30% and three times in the last century gotten less than 35% so unless the Liberal Democrats pick up a lot (which is unlikely) I am pretty sure the Tories win or lose will get at least in the upper 30s at minimum.

Ray is persuaded than Corbyn would declare himself a dictator and kill all Jews.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #7 on: August 14, 2017, 12:12:55 pm »
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How do you guys think Boris Johnson would do?  Despite being pro Brexit, he seems fairly moderate and he is from London where the party took a big hit in support.
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« Reply #8 on: August 14, 2017, 12:25:35 pm »
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How do you guys think Boris Johnson would do?  Despite being pro Brexit, he seems fairly moderate and he is from London where the party took a big hit in support.
I'm pretty sure after being the front man for the leave campaign, boris' reputation amongst socially liberal young voters has been permanently destroyed, which was a big part of his appeal.

He also has very few friends amongst Tory MPs, which will make it quite difficult for him to become Tory leader in the first place. His best chance to becoming PM was probably during the leadership contest in 2016 TBH.
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Thomas from NJ
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« Reply #9 on: August 14, 2017, 02:52:18 pm »
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They should pick a leader who actually supported the Leave campaign, unlike May.
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IceAgeComing
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« Reply #10 on: August 14, 2017, 03:33:59 pm »
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They should pick a leader who actually supported the Leave campaign, unlike May.

Considering the election result that they had even when they managed to hoover up most of the UKIP vote (by basically stealing the entirety of the UKIP manifesto bar the obviously loathsome bits); this doesn't seem like the most sensible route to take if you'd actually want them to win an election - I'd be all for it though!

The problem that they have is something that the referendum and the General Election have exposed to the world: the Tories are an incredibly divided party, but those divisions are both deep and very irrational - in that the policy divisions for them seem to be... nonexistent, but that they rip the party enough.  The issue electorate-wise is that they need to get back the socially liberal softly-remain voters that they lost this year without pissing off the Kippers, and its going to be a struggle to find a leader with the policies that can do that whilst uniting the parliamentary party - May was supposed to be the person that could do that, and look how that's worked out.  As Brexit becomes less salient they'll fade away is visibility but not go away in their entirety - after all; Europe will always remain an issue within the Conservative party...

There's also the fact that the places that they seem to have gained votes (and indeed, the places that they targeted in the last General Election although part of that was just Clinton-esque arrogance) are all places that are mostly safely Labour so an increase in the Tory share isn't overly useful unless they start winning 1997-style landslides: while Labour have made much stronger games in other places (in London and the South especially - the Labour numbers amongst younger voters also should terrify the Tories, since 70% of 18-25 year olds voting Labour suggests that there's lots of young Labour voters from rich families, which isn't something that's ever really happened before to this extent) that have helped them win seats now - Labour gained Canterbury, have made traditional Tory seats in places like Worthing competitive in a good year for them, and have made places like Birmingham Edgbaston,  Bristol West and Hove (all Tory and comfortably so in 1992; to the point where in 1997 Labour winning them all was a surprise - sure lots of this is demographic changes and boundary changes in the case of Bristol West but even then, Labour having a 20,000 majority in Hove in a seat the Tories had in 2010 shows the problem that the modern Tory party have to face.

I don't think the problem is moderation - after all; Cameron stood on a distinctly not moderate economic platform in 2015; and Jeremy Corbyn led Labour to their best vote share since 2001 and highest number of votes since 1997 - but more the perception that your party and leader cares about people - I'd argue that's fundamentally the main difference between the Tories of 2015 and those of 2017, and a big thing as to how Labour managed to get votes even from people that were concerned about how radical they perceived them to be.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #11 on: August 14, 2017, 03:42:03 pm »
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They should pick a leader who actually supported the Leave campaign, unlike May.

Considering the election result that they had even when they managed to hoover up most of the UKIP vote (by basically stealing the entirety of the UKIP manifesto bar the obviously loathsome bits); this doesn't seem like the most sensible route to take if you'd actually want them to win an election - I'd be all for it though!

The problem that they have is something that the referendum and the General Election have exposed to the world: the Tories are an incredibly divided party, but those divisions are both deep and very irrational - in that the policy divisions for them seem to be... nonexistent, but that they rip the party enough.  The issue electorate-wise is that they need to get back the socially liberal softly-remain voters that they lost this year without pissing off the Kippers, and its going to be a struggle to find a leader with the policies that can do that whilst uniting the parliamentary party - May was supposed to be the person that could do that, and look how that's worked out.  As Brexit becomes less salient they'll fade away is visibility but not go away in their entirety - after all; Europe will always remain an issue within the Conservative party...

There's also the fact that the places that they seem to have gained votes (and indeed, the places that they targeted in the last General Election although part of that was just Clinton-esque arrogance) are all places that are mostly safely Labour so an increase in the Tory share isn't overly useful unless they start winning 1997-style landslides: while Labour have made much stronger games in other places (in London and the South especially - the Labour numbers amongst younger voters also should terrify the Tories, since 70% of 18-25 year olds voting Labour suggests that there's lots of young Labour voters from rich families, which isn't something that's ever really happened before to this extent) that have helped them win seats now - Labour gained Canterbury, have made traditional Tory seats in places like Worthing competitive in a good year for them, and have made places like Birmingham Edgbaston,  Bristol West and Hove (all Tory and comfortably so in 1992; to the point where in 1997 Labour winning them all was a surprise - sure lots of this is demographic changes and boundary changes in the case of Bristol West but even then, Labour having a 20,000 majority in Hove in a seat the Tories had in 2010 shows the problem that the modern Tory party have to face.

I don't think the problem is moderation - after all; Cameron stood on a distinctly not moderate economic platform in 2015; and Jeremy Corbyn led Labour to their best vote share since 2001 and highest number of votes since 1997 - but more the perception that your party and leader cares about people - I'd argue that's fundamentally the main difference between the Tories of 2015 and those of 2017, and a big thing as to how Labour managed to get votes even from people that were concerned about how radical they perceived them to be.

I think the thing for the Tories is getting a strong majority is probably out of reach, but they only have to pick up a few marginals and with the redistribution I've heard they will even be closer.  Labour needs to pick up 64 seats which is no easy task.  The only way I can see them getting a majority is if they swing Scotland back in their favour winning around 40 seats there and then picking up another 30 seats in England and Wales, which is doable.

Does anyone know if Ruth Davidson would be interested as she seems quite popular in Scotland and I heard is fairly moderate, maybe too moderate to keep the more right wing elements on side.  And I actually think Boris Johnson being leave won't make much difference as most who are unhappy about Brexit wouldn't vote Tory anyways as they blame them for calling the referendum in the first place.
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IceAgeComing
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« Reply #12 on: August 14, 2017, 05:41:48 pm »
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You're assuming that the boundary changes will go through - Labour, the Liberals and others don't like the new rules, and the DUP are absolutely shafted by them (they do from 10 DUP/7 Sinn Fein/1 Ind in NI to 9 Sinn Fein/8 DUP) so aren't exactly going to vote for the things.  I'd imagine that if that happened you might see a new, compromise set of rules past since the current boundaries are based on a nearly 15 year old register but who knows at this point.

Davidson won't go for it - you need to be an MP to even be eligible and they'd need to fight a seat for her and there isn't one where the carpetbagger accusation couldn't follow her, plus she'd never get through the parliamentary party. 

The problem with Johnson isn't that he was "pro leave" or whatever - Europe is a huge issue in the Tory party but a "leaver" could unite the party in a certain way.  The problem with May was the campaign that she fought which went down terrible in many of the places that you're saying wouldn't vote Tory entirely because of Brexit (which is an incredibly small group of people really outside of London - not enough to swing an election) and that's the sort of campaign that a Johnson would have ran - after all, the MEDIA CONSENSUS was that the Tories could make breakthroughs in all sorts of odd (and impossible) places...
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #13 on: August 17, 2017, 04:22:25 pm »
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How do you guys think Boris Johnson would do?  Despite being pro Brexit, he seems fairly moderate and he is from London where the party took a big hit in support.
I'm pretty sure after being the front man for the leave campaign, boris' reputation amongst socially liberal young voters has been permanently destroyed, which was a big part of his appeal.

He also has very few friends amongst Tory MPs, which will make it quite difficult for him to become Tory leader in the first place. His best chance to becoming PM was probably during the leadership contest in 2016 TBH.
Yeah, Boris Johnson is bad at making friends, and his abrasive style and support for the leave Campaign should not be underestimated by foreigners - sometimes it's hard for those of us on the right side of the Atlantic to understand how big a deal Brexit was and is.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #14 on: August 17, 2017, 05:11:19 pm »
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How do you guys think Boris Johnson would do?  Despite being pro Brexit, he seems fairly moderate and he is from London where the party took a big hit in support.
I'm pretty sure after being the front man for the leave campaign, boris' reputation amongst socially liberal young voters has been permanently destroyed, which was a big part of his appeal.

He also has very few friends amongst Tory MPs, which will make it quite difficult for him to become Tory leader in the first place. His best chance to becoming PM was probably during the leadership contest in 2016 TBH.
Yeah, Boris Johnson is bad at making friends, and his abrasive style and support for the leave Campaign should not be underestimated by foreigners - sometimes it's hard for those of us on the right side of the Atlantic to understand how big a deal Brexit was and is.

But isn't he on immigration more liberal than most of his Conservative colleagues?  Also unlike the US you don't need to win the white vote by 20 points to win in the UK although also unlike the US the Tories don't have a lock on the white vote like the GOP does.  Looking at the polls from last election, it looks the overwhelming majority who voted Tory voted leave although there probably were some remainers in some high income urban areas who I suspect will vote Tory no matter what so I don't think being for leave is as damaging as some think never mind Corbyn has promised to support leave, only Liberal Democrats are pushing back on it.  My reason for suggesting him is he is from London which of the 9 English regions that was the only one where the Conservatives actually went down in votes (asides from Northeast region Labour went up by more than the Tories thus why they gained seats but Tories still gained votes) so having someone from there could help win back urban votes and perhaps even do a bit better amongst younger voters.  It seems 30% is probably the ceiling for millennials, but getting that would be enough to ensure a majority due to strength amongst seniors.
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« Reply #15 on: August 17, 2017, 05:38:48 pm »
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Yeah, Johnson is more "globalist" than a lot of people think he is. I still think he only backed Brexit because he thought Remain would narrowly win while Tory members obviously would vote for Leave in a landslide. Dave would have gotten knived by some pissed Brexiteers somewhere in late 2017 or early 2018 and Boris would have a decent shot at winning with a deeply Eurosceptic electorate (but he probably would have lost anyway because frontrunners never win in the UK...).
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« Reply #16 on: August 18, 2017, 12:05:33 am »
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« Reply #17 on: August 18, 2017, 05:41:16 am »
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Honestly, if they're going down anyway they should do this. A last stand, to drive turnout among 80+ voters to 110% (some will stay home, but some probably will come back from death). God, it might even work. Endorsed!
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