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| | |-+  You could eliminate CA, TX, FL, PA, OH and Trump would win the PV
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Author Topic: You could eliminate CA, TX, FL, PA, OH and Trump would win the PV  (Read 814 times)
super6646
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« on: August 11, 2017, 05:40:47 pm »
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Now I'm sure we've all heard the argument that if you removed California from the country, Trump would win the PV. But I decided to go a little further, and see if Trump could still eek out a victory if we removed Texas and Florida. As it turns out, he would! Then, I decided to see how many of the biggest states Trump won that I would have to take out before Clinton would win. Well, lets get going.

Hillary Clinton PV: 65,853,652

Donald Trump PV: 62,985,134
   
Hillary Clinton votes in California: 8,753,792

Donald Trump votes in California: 4,483,814

= 57,088,860 votes for Clinton

=  58,501,320 votes for Trump

So as you can see, he wins by 1.4 million votes if we take out California, but lets keep going.

Votes Trump got in Texas: 4,685,047   

Votes Clinton got in Texas: 3,877,866

= 53,816,273 votes for Trump

= 53,210,994 votes for Clinton

Lets keep going...

Votes trump got in Florida: 4,617,886   

Votes Clinton got in Florida: 4,504,975

= 49,198,387 votes for Trump

= 48,706,019 votes for Clinton

Now onto PA:

Votes for Trump: 2,970,733

Votes for Clinton: 2,926,441

= 46,227,614 votes for Trump

= 45,779,578 votes for Clinton

Finally, OH:

Votes for Trump: 2,841,006   

Votes for Clinton: 2,394,169

= 43,386,608 for Trump

= 43,385,409 for Clinton

From there, removing Michigan would give Clinton a slight win.

So that shows you the magnitude that one state has on Clinton winning the PV. If we take out four of the largest states Trump wins, he would still win the PV if just California was taken out. Pretty astounding in my opinion.
« Last Edit: August 11, 2017, 05:43:29 pm by super6646 »Logged
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« Reply #1 on: August 12, 2017, 02:01:18 am »
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Yeah, and if I take the word "fried" out of fried food, it just becomes food, what is your point?
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« Reply #2 on: August 12, 2017, 01:09:45 pm »
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Yeah, and if I take the word "fried" out of fried food, it just becomes food, what is your point?

Its just interesting how one state's margin allowed Hillary to win the popular vote. It puts things in perspective, thats all.
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« Reply #3 on: August 12, 2017, 01:17:19 pm »
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Yeah, and if you take out just India and China, the world today has fewer people today than it did (with both countries) in 1990. Yes, California is "just one state." One state with the sixth largest economy in the world. It's over 12% of the US population, and more populous than Canada. It's a damned important state. These "BUT WITHOUT CALIFORNIA!!!!" threads are silly, since the US would be a completely different country without California, in the same way that the world would be a very different place if we "eliminated" China.
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« Reply #4 on: August 12, 2017, 05:38:03 pm »
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Yeah, and if you take out just India and China, the world today has fewer people today than it did (with both countries) in 1990. Yes, California is "just one state." One state with the sixth largest economy in the world. It's over 12% of the US population, and more populous than Canada. It's a damned important state. These "BUT WITHOUT CALIFORNIA!!!!" threads are silly, since the US would be a completely different country without California, in the same way that the world would be a very different place if we "eliminated" China.

Like I said, it puts things into perspective. I'm not denying Clinton won the PV, or that we shouldn't count California. Its just interesting to look into.
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« Reply #5 on: August 12, 2017, 07:06:36 pm »
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It doesn't put anything into perspective. More Americans voted for Hillary. Next subject.
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« Reply #6 on: August 12, 2017, 07:44:27 pm »
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It doesn't put anything into perspective. More Americans voted for Hillary. Next subject.

Then why bother commenting? Don't see why people have to put a negative spin on things...
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« Reply #7 on: August 12, 2017, 08:50:20 pm »
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It doesn't put anything into perspective. More Americans voted for Hillary. Next subject.

Then why bother commenting? Don't see why people have to put a negative spin on things...

For us democrats, that's a positive spin Wink
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« Reply #8 on: August 12, 2017, 08:53:06 pm »
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I at least found this interesting. There was a point made on 538 that while Hillary had California, Trump had Appalachiafornia. An amalgamation of various states which rival the amount of votes California gave Trump a comparable number of votes to the ones Hillary garnered in California.

As for the whole "Hillary won the popular vote" meme, I really don't care because she didn't even win a majority. For all we know, Trump could have won, had there been no third party candidates. Hell, Hillary wasn't even screwed as bad as Tilden. He actually won the popular vote and by the same margin as Hillary had. There's already historical precedence for this style of victory.

Clinton's loss is a result of Democratic self packing. It's bad for a large country to be so regionally polarized like this. As a result hopefully the Democratic party will step back and re-evaluate their message so they have broader appeal.
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« Reply #9 on: August 12, 2017, 11:03:32 pm »
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It doesn't put anything into perspective. More Americans voted for Hillary. Next subject.

Then why bother commenting? Don't see why people have to put a negative spin on things...
I wanted to make it known that it was asinine to eliminate the votes of millions of people to make some sort of point that "Trump won real Americans". Trump won the EC so not sure why some are still so stuck on this. You won. More people got out of their beds to vote for Hillary Clinton. I know that's hard to grasp but that's what happened.
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« Reply #10 on: August 13, 2017, 01:48:23 pm »
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It doesn't put anything into perspective. More Americans voted for Hillary. Next subject.

Then why bother commenting? Don't see why people have to put a negative spin on things...
I wanted to make it known that it was asinine to eliminate the votes of millions of people to make some sort of point that "Trump won real Americans". Trump won the EC so not sure why some are still so stuck on this. You won. More people got out of their beds to vote for Hillary Clinton. I know that's hard to grasp but that's what happened.

We all know she won the PV. This is just a hypothetical to show how many states Trump could lose if Clinton lost California that he could hold onto a PV victory. It was something interesting to look into, thats all.
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« Reply #11 on: August 13, 2017, 10:08:25 pm »
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It doesn't put anything into perspective. More Americans voted for Hillary. Next subject.

Then why bother commenting? Don't see why people have to put a negative spin on things...
I wanted to make it known that it was asinine to eliminate the votes of millions of people to make some sort of point that "Trump won real Americans". Trump won the EC so not sure why some are still so stuck on this. You won. More people got out of their beds to vote for Hillary Clinton. I know that's hard to grasp but that's what happened.

I found this interesting as well.. And could you please show me where he said anything about Trump winning "real Americans." Why waste your time commenting on this? I believe we're aware that Hillary won the popular vote btw.
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« Reply #12 on: August 13, 2017, 10:11:17 pm »
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I at least found this interesting. There was a point made on 538 that while Hillary had California, Trump had Appalachiafornia. An amalgamation of various states which rival the amount of votes California gave Trump a comparable number of votes to the ones Hillary garnered in California.

As for the whole "Hillary won the popular vote" meme, I really don't care because she didn't even win a majority. For all we know, Trump could have won, had there been no third party candidates. Hell, Hillary wasn't even screwed as bad as Tilden. He actually won the popular vote and by the same margin as Hillary had. There's already historical precedence for this style of victory.

Clinton's loss is a result of Democratic self packing. It's bad for a large country to be so regionally polarized like this. As a result hopefully the Democratic party will step back and re-evaluate their message so they have broader appeal.

Three things:

First: Tilden would've won if Colorado had used the PV, unless [which is likely] the PV of that state had favored Hayes.

Two: Given how badly suppressed votes were in The South, it's possible that, no, Tilden didn't even win the PV after all. Unlikely, but not impossible.

Third: Said gap was just by 1 Electoral Vote (hence my point about CO, which didn't even use people's votes for the EV), Hillary was taken out by 74 EVs [not accounting for the absurd faithless ones] despite winning the popular vote by 2 points. No, not a good a comparison at all!
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« Reply #13 on: August 14, 2017, 03:45:30 pm »
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Just stop talking about the NPV. We decide elections by the electoral college, and should continue to do so, so that candidates have to gain the confidence of people both on the coasts and far from the coasts. In fact, the media should refrain from calculating the NPV, as it holds no relevance.
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« Reply #14 on: August 14, 2017, 04:47:40 pm »
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You had to eliminate huge parts of the country to do that, which says quite a lot about Trump. With that said, Democrats really need to push the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact if they win control of more statehouses next year.
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« Reply #15 on: August 14, 2017, 08:56:00 pm »
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You had to eliminate huge parts of the country to do that, which says quite a lot about Trump. With that said, Democrats really need to push the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact if they win control of more statehouses next year.

Or they could just learn how to win presidential elections, instead of just trying to run up the popular vote which means nothing.
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« Reply #16 on: August 14, 2017, 09:54:52 pm »
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Yeah, and if I take the word "fried" out of fried food, it just becomes food, what is your point?

Its just interesting how one state's margin allowed Hillary to win the popular vote. It puts things in perspective, thats all.

The perspective that we should just ignore California's opinion? Because... they're liberals?
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« Reply #17 on: August 15, 2017, 12:11:01 am »
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You forgot Illinois and New York!
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« Reply #18 on: August 15, 2017, 03:20:39 pm »
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Just stop talking about the NPV. We decide elections by the electoral college, and should continue to do so, so that candidates have to gain the confidence of people both on the coasts and far from the coasts. In fact, the media should refrain from calculating the NPV, as it holds no relevance.
So should we allocate 100 electoral votes to minorities? After all, that way candidates would have to take into account whites and non whites.
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« Reply #19 on: August 15, 2017, 03:56:40 pm »
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Just stop talking about the NPV. We decide elections by the electoral college, and should continue to do so, so that candidates have to gain the confidence of people both on the coasts and far from the coasts. In fact, the media should refrain from calculating the NPV, as it holds no relevance.
So should we allocate 100 electoral votes to minorities? After all, that way candidates would have to take into account whites and non whites.

No. In order to win key states, candidates do need to get some minority votes. Even Trump got like 31% among Hispanics and 10% among Blacks. And in any case, people can't be trusted to be honest about what race they are.
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« Reply #20 on: August 15, 2017, 04:21:54 pm »
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Yeah, and if I take the word "fried" out of fried food, it just becomes food, what is your point?

Its just interesting how one state's margin allowed Hillary to win the popular vote. It puts things in perspective, thats all.

The perspective that we should just ignore California's opinion? Because... they're liberals?

Oh dear god...
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super6646
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« Reply #21 on: August 15, 2017, 04:25:01 pm »
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You had to eliminate huge parts of the country to do that, which says quite a lot about Trump. With that said, Democrats really need to push the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact if they win control of more statehouses next year.

Umm... 4 of the 5 states were Trump states. I eliminated those states to see if Trump could win the PV without them.
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« Reply #22 on: August 16, 2017, 11:07:59 pm »
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I at least found this interesting. There was a point made on 538 that while Hillary had California, Trump had Appalachiafornia. An amalgamation of various states which rival the amount of votes California gave Trump a comparable number of votes to the ones Hillary garnered in California.

As for the whole "Hillary won the popular vote" meme, I really don't care because she didn't even win a majority. For all we know, Trump could have won, had there been no third party candidates. Hell, Hillary wasn't even screwed as bad as Tilden. He actually won the popular vote and by the same margin as Hillary had. There's already historical precedence for this style of victory.

Clinton's loss is a result of Democratic self packing. It's bad for a large country to be so regionally polarized like this. As a result hopefully the Democratic party will step back and re-evaluate their message so they have broader appeal.
Maybe, if literally everyone who voted third party would have voted for Trump. I don't think that's particularly likely.
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« Reply #23 on: August 16, 2017, 11:10:12 pm »
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Just stop talking about the NPV. We decide elections by the electoral college, and should continue to do so, so that candidates have to gain the confidence of people both on the coasts and far from the coasts. In fact, the media should refrain from calculating the NPV, as it holds no relevance.
Very moderate and reasonable take! Absolutely, the media should not report any facts that you don't like. In fact, why even have a free press. That'd be almost as crazy as allowing religions other than Christianity to remain legal.
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18:37   Clark   Most of you are considered to be trolls, and with good reason

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15:55   windjammer   you should all go to hell
 
For once, SWE is right
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