Current election predictions

[Spark]

President Trump- 286 EVs, 48.2%
Dem- 252 EVs, 49.3%

Trump loses ground in Rust Belt due to higher minority turnout and gains in New England.

[Xing]

Same as above, but with the Democrats winning NH and ME (but not ME-02)

[MT Treasurer]

Incredibly close Trump victory in the EC, even though he loses the PV by 2.5-3.5 points.

[Illini Moderate]

It all depends on his favorability. If it stays at 37% he's not winning. I expect that some member(s) of his team (But not Trump himself) will be indicted for the Russia stuff. Trump will easily be painted as lazy and ineffective. (lack of any major legislation passed, always on vacation/golfing). The main factor is the economy. Trump is coasting and taking credit for the last administrations economic contributions. Barring a major 9/11 type catastrophe, or a terrible Dem nominee (Warren or Zuckerberg) I just don't see Trump winning

[TheSaint250]

Senator Elizabeth Warren: 326
President Mike Pence: 212

There's a good chance that Pence could lose Arizona, Iowa, and/or North Carolina as well.

If Trump lasts to 2020:

Senator Elizabeth Warren: 333
President Donald Trump: 205

Here, there is a good chance that Trump could lose Iowa, Maine's 2nd congressional district, and/or Ohio and/or gain Arizona and/or North Carolina.

[HisGrace]

It all depends on his favorability. If it stays at 37% he's not winning.

Agree. People are just emboldened/traumatized by his winning and acting like he's unstoppable. He has to get up to at least 45 percent approval to have a shot. I think it's unlikely he'll ever get that high again as that would require him to actually accomplish something concrete. He's just going to keep losing. Tax reform will go about as well as health care.

[TheLeftwardTide]

^
A Democratic landslide would win Arkansas well before Kansas or Mississippi, though. I doubt the contempt for Brownback would leak into the presidential election, and Mississippi is still not even close to becoming a majority-minority state.

[TheSaint250]

^
A Democratic landslide would win Arkansas well before Kansas or Mississippi, though. I doubt the contempt for Brownback would leak into the presidential election, and Mississippi is still not even close to becoming a majority-minority state.

Arkansas is more strongly Republican than Kansas and Mississippi.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I really do not see how Trump is going to win reelection.

[Former Senator Haslam2020]

I really do not see how Trump is going to win reelection.

[JA]

I really do not see how Trump is going to win reelection.

Democrats could always nominate Hillary Clinton again...

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

I really do not see how Trump is going to win reelection.

[Liberalrocks]

I really do not see how Trump is going to win reelection.

Democrats could always nominate Hillary Clinton again...

and he would still lose....

[cvparty]

At this point today the election would look sort of like this

but if Trump keeps getting more unpopular I can see this

[Celebi]

All right, some predictions:

Democrats:
Heavily contested nomination with lots of candidates.

Overrated candidates that are likely to run: Cuomo, Gillibrand, Harris, Klobuchar, Castro, Booker
Overrated candidates that aren't likely to run: Gabbard (will run for governor/senator first)
Won't run: Sanders, Clinton
People to look for if they run: Newsom, Franken, Warren (If any of them runs they would have high chance of getting nomination and subsequently winning general election. However none of them is very likely to run and probably only one of them will actually contest the nomination.)
Presidential nominee: Gavin Newsom
Vicepresidential nominee: Cory Booker, Julian Castro or some other identity politics centrist establishment candidate

Republicans:
Trump will face establishment primary challenge but will get renominated.
Possible challengers: Sasse, Kasich, Coton, Flake

General election:
Democrats will win in a landslide, electing Newsom as new FDR/demoratic Reagan. Texas will stay republican. Georgia might be in play if Booker is a vicepresident. Arizona might vote for democrats.
Trump loses for reasons unrelated to his offensive style and endless amount of scandals, most likely because of economic crisis he won't be able to prevent.
However if nominee is Cuomo, Harris, Gillibrand or some other uninspiring centrist, democrats are gonna lose.

There is going to be strong (5%>) 3rd party candidate, probably some former republican.

Newsom/Booker 347 51%
Trump/Pence 143 44%
Tossup 48

[Coraxion]

This is gonna be a Blanching.

[Lachi]

[Don Vito Corleone]

'
Joseph Biden (D-DE)/ Deval Patrick (D-MA) - 378
Donald Trump (R-NY)/ Michael Pence (R-IN) - 160

Joseph Biden (D-DE)/ Joseph Kennedy III (D-MA) - 348
Michael Pence (R-IN)/ Johnny Isakson (R-GA) - 190

[Progressive]

All right, some predictions:

Democrats:
Heavily contested nomination with lots of candidates.

Overrated candidates that are likely to run: Cuomo, Gillibrand, Harris, Klobuchar, Castro, Booker
Overrated candidates that aren't likely to run: Gabbard (will run for governor/senator first)
Won't run: Sanders, Clinton
People to look for if they run: Newsom, Franken, Warren (If any of them runs they would have high chance of getting nomination and subsequently winning general election. However none of them is very likely to run and probably only one of them will actually contest the nomination.)
Presidential nominee: Gavin Newsom
Vicepresidential nominee: Cory Booker, Julian Castro or some other identity politics centrist establishment candidate

Republicans:
Trump will face establishment primary challenge but will get renominated.
Possible challengers: Sasse, Kasich, Coton, Flake

General election:
Democrats will win in a landslide, electing Newsom as new FDR/demoratic Reagan. Texas will stay republican. Georgia might be in play if Booker is a vicepresident. Arizona might vote for democrats.
Trump loses for reasons unrelated to his offensive style and endless amount of scandals, most likely because of economic crisis he won't be able to prevent.
However if nominee is Cuomo, Harris, Gillibrand or some other uninspiring centrist, democrats are gonna lose.

There is going to be strong (5%>) 3rd party candidate, probably some former republican.

Newsom/Booker 347 51%
Trump/Pence 143 44%
Tossup 48

Can I ask you something without being presumptuous? What makes Cory Booker an "identity politics" selection for vice president? By 2020 he will have been mayor of Newark and a US senator for almost 7 years. Could it be that you refer to him as ID politics merely because he is not white?

[Inmate Trump]

Assuming Trump's approval rating bumps up to around 40%....

Democrat: 349
Trump: 189

The toss-ups here will be Arizona, Texas, Georgia, Florida, Wisconsin, and North Carolina.

I just do not envision any scenario at this time where Trump can win Michigan again.  Pennsylvania is probably gone for him too.  I can see him winning Wisconsin again, but I can also see him losing it just as easily.

Texas could be close, depending on the Democratic nominee.  Demographics there are trending blue.  But I don't think 2020 will be the year for it to flip, though it quite possibly could, especially if Trump continues to tank.  Same with Georgia, except I do think it's very likely to flip in 2020.

North Carolina and Arizona, I believe, are not going to be good states for the president.  NC will be friendlier territory, IMO, but I don't think he's going to be a favorite in either state come 2020.

Florida remains a battleground, as always.  C'mon, Florida, get your act together.



Now, if Trump's approval hovers at the current 36-ish% or drops to around 30%....

Democrat: 413
Trump: 125

Toss-ups: Texas, South Carolina, Nebraska CD-2, Maine CD-2, Iowa, Ohio, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and Florida.  It should be noted, even if he were to win every single one of these, he'd still lose the election.  In other words, 30-36% approval means he's going to lose; he cannot win with approval like that.



Should his approval dip below 30%....

Democrat: 437
Trump: 101

Battlegound Alaska, Indiana, South Carolina, Nebraska CD-1, Missouri, Mississippi, and possibly Utah and Kansas.

[Celebi]

All right, some predictions:

Democrats:
Heavily contested nomination with lots of candidates.

Overrated candidates that are likely to run: Cuomo, Gillibrand, Harris, Klobuchar, Castro, Booker
Overrated candidates that aren't likely to run: Gabbard (will run for governor/senator first)
Won't run: Sanders, Clinton
People to look for if they run: Newsom, Franken, Warren (If any of them runs they would have high chance of getting nomination and subsequently winning general election. However none of them is very likely to run and probably only one of them will actually contest the nomination.)
Presidential nominee: Gavin Newsom
Vicepresidential nominee: Cory Booker, Julian Castro or some other identity politics centrist establishment candidate

Republicans:
Trump will face establishment primary challenge but will get renominated.
Possible challengers: Sasse, Kasich, Coton, Flake

General election:
Democrats will win in a landslide, electing Newsom as new FDR/demoratic Reagan. Texas will stay republican. Georgia might be in play if Booker is a vicepresident. Arizona might vote for democrats.
Trump loses for reasons unrelated to his offensive style and endless amount of scandals, most likely because of economic crisis he won't be able to prevent.
However if nominee is Cuomo, Harris, Gillibrand or some other uninspiring centrist, democrats are gonna lose.

There is going to be strong (5%>) 3rd party candidate, probably some former republican.

Newsom/Booker 347 51%
Trump/Pence 143 44%
Tossup 48

Can I ask you something without being presumptuous? What makes Cory Booker an "identity politics" selection for vice president? By 2020 he will have been mayor of Newark and a US senator for almost 7 years. Could it be that you refer to him as ID politics merely because he is not white?

If he wasn't black would he be considered such high-profile contender? I doubt so. He's corporate centrist with no achievements, afraid to state any major policy position.

[Canis]

All right, some predictions:

Democrats:
Heavily contested nomination with lots of candidates.

Overrated candidates that are likely to run: Cuomo, Gillibrand, Harris, Klobuchar, Castro, Booker
Overrated candidates that aren't likely to run: Gabbard (will run for governor/senator first)
Won't run: Sanders, Clinton
People to look for if they run: Newsom, Franken, Warren (If any of them runs they would have high chance of getting nomination and subsequently winning general election. However none of them is very likely to run and probably only one of them will actually contest the nomination.)
Presidential nominee: Gavin Newsom
Vicepresidential nominee: Cory Booker, Julian Castro or some other identity politics centrist establishment candidate

Republicans:
Trump will face establishment primary challenge but will get renominated.
Possible challengers: Sasse, Kasich, Coton, Flake

General election:
Democrats will win in a landslide, electing Newsom as new FDR/demoratic Reagan. Texas will stay republican. Georgia might be in play if Booker is a vicepresident. Arizona might vote for democrats.
Trump loses for reasons unrelated to his offensive style and endless amount of scandals, most likely because of economic crisis he won't be able to prevent.
However if nominee is Cuomo, Harris, Gillibrand or some other uninspiring centrist, democrats are gonna lose.

There is going to be strong (5%>) 3rd party candidate, probably some former republican.

Newsom/Booker 347 51%
Trump/Pence 143 44%
Tossup 48

Why would Newsom run only two years into his first term? Im a fan of Newsom but he won't be a contender till 2024 or 2028

[super6646]

Assuming Trump's approval rating bumps up to around 40%....

Democrat: 349
Trump: 189

The toss-ups here will be Arizona, Texas, Georgia, Florida, Wisconsin, and North Carolina.

I just do not envision any scenario at this time where Trump can win Michigan again.  Pennsylvania is probably gone for him too.  I can see him winning Wisconsin again, but I can also see him losing it just as easily.

Texas could be close, depending on the Democratic nominee.  Demographics there are trending blue.  But I don't think 2020 will be the year for it to flip, though it quite possibly could, especially if Trump continues to tank.  Same with Georgia, except I do think it's very likely to flip in 2020.

North Carolina and Arizona, I believe, are not going to be good states for the president.  NC will be friendlier territory, IMO, but I don't think he's going to be a favorite in either state come 2020.

Florida remains a battleground, as always.  C'mon, Florida, get your act together.



Now, if Trump's approval hovers at the current 36-ish% or drops to around 30%....

Democrat: 413
Trump: 125

Toss-ups: Texas, South Carolina, Nebraska CD-2, Maine CD-2, Iowa, Ohio, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and Florida.  It should be noted, even if he were to win every single one of these, he'd still lose the election.  In other words, 30-36% approval means he's going to lose; he cannot win with approval like that.



Should his approval dip below 30%....

Democrat: 437
Trump: 101

Battlegound Alaska, Indiana, South Carolina, Nebraska CD-1, Missouri, Mississippi, and possibly Utah and Kansas.

Someone is living in la la land.

[super6646]

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Best Guess Currently:

Governor Steve Bullock (D-MT)/Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY): 462 electoral votes, 57.4%
President Michael Pence (R-IN)/Governor James Justice (R-WV): 76 electoral votes, 38.5%