Guaranteed pickup of governorships for Democrats?

[Jake]

Baxley is looking for a promotion and may well get it.

[Sam Spade]

Republicans have likely pickups in Iowa and Virginia and some not so likely chances in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Michigan, and Illinois. The Denocrats are virtually assured New York and have fairly decent chances at Massachusetts, Maryland, Ohio, Alabama, Arkansas, and California. The Democrats lucked out this year with a number of unpopular GOP Governors in liberal states coming up for re-election.

The Dems did get lucky this year. I think Virginia is definitly the Republicans best shot and New York is all but over, but I'd say Ohio, Massachusetts, and California are a lot more likely to flip than Iowa. If the GOP had anything going in Illinois, Blagojovich would be finished. I think the Republicans also have a good shot in Michigan if they nominate the right person.

Alabama a likely Democratic pickup? What's going on there?

What Jake said there.  Riley is viewed as a tax-raiser (accurate imo) and will probably face a challenge from Roy Moore in the Republican primaries.  Lucy Baxley is a strong candidate, frankly.

In your analysis, Ohio is more likely than Iowa to switch, but not more than Massachusetts or California, imo.  Part of this is because it's an open seat and open seats are simply more likely to switch.

Also, BRTD likes to torment me with this, but Nussle is about the most perfect Republican candidate you can get for Iowa, except that he's been divorced and I'm not even sure that can make him that vulnerable.  He's been Congressman to a lean-Dem CD in Eastern Iowa (the Democratic part of Iowa) for a while and as last year showed with Coburn in Oklahoma, that kind of placement really can make all the difference.

As has been stated here, the strongest opponent is Chet Culver, but I honestly still think he probably couldn't beat Nussle, though the race would be closer then.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What Jake said there.  Riley is viewed as a tax-raiser (accurate imo) and will probably face a challenge from Roy Moore in the Republican primaries.  Lucy Baxley is a strong candidate, frankly.

Agreed; remember Riley only just squeaked in in 2002.

[MaC]

I would think Ohio.  Generally a horrible governor (or president for that matter) will show a turn over in party, despite party is only part of it.

[tarheel-leftist85]

Something tells me OH will stay Republican after reading What's the Matter With Kansas?:  Dems. want to compromise on people's economic security before partial birth abortion, and Ohioans seem content in putting up with the same empty crap (promises for a moral society w/o delivering the goods).

[MaC]

it very well may stay mostly Republican, but it'll have a Democratic governor.  I don't think Vionovich or DeWine will lose their seats because imcumbents have a 95% re-election rate, unless they seriously, seriously horribly f--k up.  And provided that the economic state of Ohio remains, they're likely to vote GOP for prez. in 2008 (of course I'm not saying it as a blanket assertion-many factors will determine how it votes)

By the way is What's the Matter With Kansas? a good read?  It looked like it was worth buying...

[TheresNoMoney]

And provided that the economic state of Ohio remains, they're likely to vote GOP for prez. in 2008

Why would they vote for the party whose economic policies have screwed so many of them over? Ohio has been one of the states hit hardest by the plutocratic Republican economic policies.

[Ben.]

Ben, are you voting in this race? Absentee?

I should be back

[PADem]

I find Ohio unusual. You have very,very liberal cities like Cleveland (liberal enough to elect Kucinich) but much more conversative elsewhere. Even the whole Philly/Pittsburgh/Rural PA thing isn't as clear cut.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

NY and CA loook pretty good. Arnold has a 61% disapproval rating. That can't be good for his re-election.

[AuH2O]

At least jfern is getting his smack talk in against Arnold now. Won't be so easy when he's reelected.

Honestly, Arnold's campaign should send as many people as possible DVD's of Commando. No one can watch that movie and vote against Arnold.

random soldier: "Do you expect we'll find any more bodies?"

Gen. Kirby: "If he's still alive, I'd expect a lot more."

(after killing guy next to him on the plane)
Arnold: "Please don't disturb my friend. He's dead tired."

[CARLHAYDEN]

OK.  Just saw the poll.  What did Kilgore do to strengthen his lead?

Also, in Herndon, the government is paying for a job center where illegal aliens can obtain employment.

[CARLHAYDEN]

If Arnold's propositions fail in the CA special election - or at least if most of them fail - he could be considered just about done.  His ratings are still abysmal here. 

And what about the California Border Police Initiative which is likely to be on the ballot next year?

[Gustaf]

So what is Kilgore's real margin then? 6-7% is what it looks like to me, what do you all think?

If that is the case Virginia looks unlikely to stay Democrat.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Yeah, it looks like Kilgore is going to pull it out.

Its still possible for the Democrat to win, but less likely with the passing of every day.

[TheresNoMoney]

Potts is the wild card. He will take away more votes from Kilgore than he will from Kaine.

The race is still up for grabs. Way too early to make any solid prediction.

[CARLHAYDEN]

You really should look a little closer.

Potts isn't pulling votes from Kilgore anymore than Anderson 'pulled' votes from Reagan in 1980.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

At least jfern is getting his smack talk in against Arnold now. Won't be so easy when he's reelected.

Honestly, Arnold's campaign should send as many people as possible DVD's of Commando. No one can watch that movie and vote against Arnold.

random soldier: "Do you expect we'll find any more bodies?"

Gen. Kirby: "If he's still alive, I'd expect a lot more."

(after killing guy next to him on the plane)
Arnold: "Please don't disturb my friend. He's dead tired."

I like all his movies and I would still never vote for him.

Interestingly his movies are actually pretty left wing. Well Total Recall and the Terminator series are. You could argue for Eraser too.

[M]

And in Junior he has that classic line- "my body. My choice".

But Arnold never was a conservative. Remember, he likes the Republicans for their economic libertarianism, their hawkishness, and their patriotism, and tends towards social liberalism. That's why he and Giuliani have always been my favorite American politicians- as close to absolute republicanism as possible at home, but promoted and defended abroad, and with full pride in the history and essence of the nation.

I would tend to think that the GOP will have trouble with this gubernatorial cycle. Of the mansions mentioned, I'd call Virginia, Iowa, and Michigan our best bets. The tide is very much against us in Illinois, but you never know. Texas is safe, of course (though Perry may fail to break 60 in either the primary or general-you never know).

I tend to be very hesitant to count Arnold out. If you haven't been watching Sharon's numbers recently, they plummeted against Netanyahu on the eve of disengagement and now, with his success and the low violence back up, he's secure again. A successsful ballot initiative might give him the win again, by a relatively large margin. And I still wouldn't be shocked if he ends up president someday.

I sure hope the GOP loses in Alabama. Where do we come up with these morons? Oh, right, it's Alabama. (And I love the South.) I just wish Tim McGraw would run for something, as he's hinted at in the past.

Ohio is your grandfather's Republican party. It's the last of the old fashioned, establishment Republican states, where your great grandmother (who lived on your block) voted for William Howard Taft, your great uncle (down the street) voted for Robert Taft, your father (next door) voted for Robert Taft, Jr., and by golly, you'll vote for Bob Taft too! Ohio no longer has any reason for being a GOP state, and I expect it to trend Left (as the white rural states of Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin trend right). Kevin Phillips's trends still trump those of Ruy Texeira. Bob Taft in particular, and Voinovich and DeWine too, have virtually guaranteed that this will happen sooner rather than later.

Kerry Healey is sure better looking then Tom Reilly. But she won't be governor. And the two men who could beat Spitzer- Powell and Giuliani- won't try. Powell because he's done, and Giuliani because he's just getting started. Who wants to be a full-time campaigning governor for just two year? In the modern electoral paradigm it doesn't work. Weld... ah, who knows, he might catch on. Fellow Bostonian Bloomberg is definitely working out okay.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Here's another example of how illegal aliens are impacting the Virginia elections:

Arrest made in Spotsylvania beating


By Minnie Roh
NBC12 News
Thursday, August 18, 2005

 



An illegal alien, Jose Ramirez, 28, has been arrested and charged with the brutal beating of a 15-year-old girl who allegedly ignored his whistles at a construction site in Spotsylvania County.

Police say the 15 year old girl suffered a broken nose, bone fracture to the right side of her face and received approximately 30 stitches to her face and back of her head.

Police say the 15 year old girl was walking by on a road, when Ramirez, who was working on a construction project at a nearby townhouse, whistled at her.

Witnesses told police the next thing they saw, Ramirez appeared enraged and took off running after the girl. He allegedly began to beat her on her face and head.

Ramirez then fled into a nearby wooded area. Short while later, authorities found Ramirez a few blocks away. Ramirez, an illegal alien from El Salvador, allegedly resisted arrest but was finally subdued.

Ramirez is facing aggravated malicious wounding charges as well as abduction with intent to defile.   Both charges carry a possible life sentence.

[Flying Dog]

The Republicans would have a good chance of Michigan being a GOP pickup if they would just get of there whining, lazy as*es and campaign for there candidate. Who ever it is.

[Smash255]

And in Junior he has that classic line- "my body. My choice".

But Arnold never was a conservative. Remember, he likes the Republicans for their economic libertarianism, their hawkishness, and their patriotism, and tends towards social liberalism. That's why he and Giuliani have always been my favorite American politicians- as close to absolute republicanism as possible at home, but promoted and defended abroad, and with full pride in the history and essence of the nation.

I would tend to think that the GOP will have trouble with this gubernatorial cycle. Of the mansions mentioned, I'd call Virginia, Iowa, and Michigan our best bets. The tide is very much against us in Illinois, but you never know. Texas is safe, of course (though Perry may fail to break 60 in either the primary or general-you never know).

I tend to be very hesitant to count Arnold out. If you haven't been watching Sharon's numbers recently, they plummeted against Netanyahu on the eve of disengagement and now, with his success and the low violence back up, he's secure again. A successsful ballot initiative might give him the win again, by a relatively large margin. And I still wouldn't be shocked if he ends up president someday.

I sure hope the GOP loses in Alabama. Where do we come up with these morons? Oh, right, it's Alabama. (And I love the South.) I just wish Tim McGraw would run for something, as he's hinted at in the past.

Ohio is your grandfather's Republican party. It's the last of the old fashioned, establishment Republican states, where your great grandmother (who lived on your block) voted for William Howard Taft, your great uncle (down the street) voted for Robert Taft, your father (next door) voted for Robert Taft, Jr., and by golly, you'll vote for Bob Taft too! Ohio no longer has any reason for being a GOP state, and I expect it to trend Left (as the white rural states of Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin trend right). Kevin Phillips's trends still trump those of Ruy Texeira. Bob Taft in particular, and Voinovich and DeWine too, have virtually guaranteed that this will happen sooner rather than later.

Kerry Healey is sure better looking then Tom Reilly. But she won't be governor. And the two men who could beat Spitzer- Powell and Giuliani- won't try. Powell because he's done, and Giuliani because he's just getting started. Who wants to be a full-time campaigning governor for just two year? In the modern electoral paradigm it doesn't work. Weld... ah, who knows, he might catch on. Fellow Bostonian Bloomberg is definitely working out okay.

Wisconsin, Michagin & Minnesota really haven't moved much in the last few Pres election relative to the national margin