Current election predictions

[Inmate Trump]

Really, though, none of these maps matter that much, because Russia will again be meddling in the election to benefit their puppet in the White House.

[Canis]

Best Guess Currently:

Governor Steve Bullock (D-MT)/Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY): 462 electoral votes, 57.4%
President Michael Pence (R-IN)/Governor James Justice (R-WV): 76 electoral votes, 38.5%

Lol at Wyoming going democrat before south carolina

[AN63093]

At least 3 years too early to make anything close to a serious prediction.  But, assuming nothing major happens (so far, nothing that has happened in the past 7 months counts as "major"), and there isn't a significant economic recession... maybe something like this:

Dems win the PV by about 2-3%.

[Burke Bro]

Here are 3 scenarios I've come up with.

Trump's approval rating remains settled in the high 30s (36-41%), perhaps increasing a bit come 2020.

Democrat: 350
Trump: 188
 

Trump's approval rating continues to plummet and settles in the low 30s (29-34%).

Democrat: 424
Trump: 114

Trump resigns/is removed from office and Pence retains a steady approval rating in the high 40s (35-40%), which slightly increases come 2020, similar to Obama during 2012.

Pence: 320
Democrat: 218

[AN63093]

Why in the world do people think Pence would win NH?

[brucejoel99]

Why in the world do people think Pence would win NH?

B/c it's a drug-infested den, after all /s

[Burke Bro]

Why in the world do people think Pence would win NH?

New Hampshire was the closest contest in 2016 after Michigan. If Pence was to improve upon Trump's margins, he'd almost certainly carry the state.

[AN63093]

Why in the world do people think Pence would win NH?

New Hampshire was the closest contest in 2016 after Michigan. If Pence was to improve upon Trump's margins, he'd almost certainly carry the state.

Yes I know it was the closest after MI; that doesn't tell us much.  Even if Pence improved on Trump in the national PV, which is a big if, but even if we assumed that, the votes would come from elsewhere first.  Pence would hold on to MI, flip MN, and maybe even NV before NH.  Heck, I'd actually have him coming close in CO before flipping NH.

Trump was a great fit for NH and the GOP's best shot since 2000 to flip the state, and even he came up short.  If Trump couldn't do it against an unpopular Clinton, then Pence isn't getting anywhere near the Dem candidate.  Pence is pretty much the worst possible fit for NH that I can conceive of, outside of someone like maybe... Huckabee.  Or Ben Carson. 

NH has a large number of relatively elastic independents, but first off- they don't swing for someone like a Pence-type, and second- that's a shrinking demographic in the state.  The other large group of people in NH are those that have moved from Boston and Pence is a hilariously bad fit for that demographic.

[Sumner 1868]

Trump's current approval/disapproval ratings in PA and MI, as well the entire Northeast, are dismal, so I don't think many Democratic leaners who supported him in these states last November will consider him again. I'm skeptical GA and TX can really flip.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Best Guess Currently:

Governor Steve Bullock (D-MT)/Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY): 462 electoral votes, 57.4%
President Michael Pence (R-IN)/Governor James Justice (R-WV): 76 electoral votes, 38.5%

Lol at Wyoming going democrat before south carolina

Things change. Trump's approval rating is 5 points higher in WY than SC, and Bullock would help Dems a lot in the MT west.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

McCain, Romney and Trump were all supposedly "good fits" for NH (even in 2004, some people thought Bush could carry the state because of his tax cuts and the large number of "Independents"), and they all fell short of flipping the state. The state's entire congressional delegation is Democratic, voters there ousted 2 Republican incumbents in a GOP wave year, and long-term trends favor the Democrats. ME and MN both flip before NH.

NH was literally the closest Clinton win.

[Crumpets]

Something like this:

Warren/Bullock 322 EV
Trump/Pence 216 EV

Confidence map:

Democrat safe/likely/lean/tilt: 268 EV
Republican safe/likely/lean/tilt: 204 EV
Tossup: 66 EV

[TheLeftwardTide]

Assuming Trump's approval rating bumps up to around 40%....

Democrat: 349
Trump: 189

The toss-ups here will be Arizona, Texas, Georgia, Florida, Wisconsin, and North Carolina.

I just do not envision any scenario at this time where Trump can win Michigan again.  Pennsylvania is probably gone for him too.  I can see him winning Wisconsin again, but I can also see him losing it just as easily.

Texas could be close, depending on the Democratic nominee.  Demographics there are trending blue.  But I don't think 2020 will be the year for it to flip, though it quite possibly could, especially if Trump continues to tank.  Same with Georgia, except I do think it's very likely to flip in 2020.

North Carolina and Arizona, I believe, are not going to be good states for the president.  NC will be friendlier territory, IMO, but I don't think he's going to be a favorite in either state come 2020.

Florida remains a battleground, as always.  C'mon, Florida, get your act together.



Now, if Trump's approval hovers at the current 36-ish% or drops to around 30%....

Democrat: 413
Trump: 125

Toss-ups: Texas, South Carolina, Nebraska CD-2, Maine CD-2, Iowa, Ohio, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and Florida.  It should be noted, even if he were to win every single one of these, he'd still lose the election.  In other words, 30-36% approval means he's going to lose; he cannot win with approval like that.



Should his approval dip below 30%....

Democrat: 437
Trump: 101

Battlegound Alaska, Indiana, South Carolina, Nebraska CD-1, Missouri, Mississippi, and possibly Utah and Kansas.

I don't think that a Democrat is going to win South Carolina or Texas in 2020; political polarization is just too high. We'll see, though.

[Kamala]

Illinois is Republican?

[Xing]

Why in the world do people think Pence would win NH?

Honestly, I'd like to know why in the world people think Pence would win period (in the event of Trump resigning.) I think he'd be more likely to lose in a landslide than win, in that scenario.

[GGover]

Something like this:

Warren/Bullock 322 EV
Trump/Pence 216 EV

Confidence map:

Democrat safe/likely/lean/tilt: 268 EV
Republican safe/likely/lean/tilt: 204 EV
Tossup: 66 EV

Why do you have more confidence in Ohio and Iowa going Republican than Georgia?

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

Scenario #1: Relatively strong candidate that particularly inspires minority turnout, campaign focuses on expanding to the Southeast and Southwest:

Scenario #2: Relatively strong candidate that focuses on taking back WWC votes:

Scenario #3: Particularly weak, uninspiring Democrat

Scenario #4: Very generic Democrat with average likability: