2024: Roy Moore (R) vs. Joe Kennedy (D)

[PragmaticPopulist]

For this scenario, let's assume that Roy Moore wins the special election in Alabama and is reelected in 2020. Either Trump is (somehow) reelected in 2020, or doesn't serve out his term as president for whatever reason, and Mike Pence becomes the 46th President of the United States. Also in 2020, Ed Markey retires, since he'd be 74, and Joe Kennedy wins his open seat.

Whether or not Trump is still in office by 2024, there is a hotly contested primary pitting the more traditional GOP establishment against the "Trump establishment". In both of these scenarios, Roy Moore ends up on top as the Republican nominee, even defeating Mike Pence if he runs for a full term. He runs sort of like a Trumpist, but more like a traditional conservative, advocating for less spending and a more religion-based lifestyle. Unlike Trump, his main base is the deep south, and his performance in the midwest is only average at-best for a Republican.

Democrats nominate now-Senator Joe Kennedy III, who runs on a progressive platform. His main base is the Northeast, and also makes inroads in the increasingly Democratic sunbelt.

Sen. Joe Kennedy/Gov. Gavin Newsom - 356
Sen. Roy Moore/Gov. Kristi Noem-182

(electoral vote estimates for post-2020 census come from 270towin)


Discuss w/ maps.

[The Govanah Jake]

As of 2016 Electoral Votes:

Massachusetts Senator Joe Kennedy/Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar - 326 EV 50.96%

Alabama Senator Roy Moore/Former Ohio Governor Rob Portman - 212 EV 46.38%

Ohio is the closest State followed by Florida, Arizona, and Wisconsin.

[libertpaulian]

As of 2016 Electoral Votes:

Massachusetts Senator Joe Kennedy/Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar - 326 EV 50.96%

Alabama Senator Roy Moore/Former Ohio Governor Rob Portman - 212 EV 46.38%

Ohio is the closest State followed by Florida, Arizona, and Wisconsin.

A supporter of marriage equality who also has a gay son isn't going to run on a ticket with a gay-hating theocrat like Moore.

[The Govanah Jake]

As of 2016 Electoral Votes:

Massachusetts Senator Joe Kennedy/Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar - 326 EV 50.96%

Alabama Senator Roy Moore/Former Ohio Governor Rob Portman - 212 EV 46.38%

Ohio is the closest State followed by Florida, Arizona, and Wisconsin.

A supporter of marriage equality who also has a gay son isn't going to run on a ticket with a gay-hating theocrat like Moore.

It's just a placeholder name

[Kingpoleon]

438: Sen. Joe Kennedy III/Gov. Henry Cuellar - 53.7%
100: Sen. Roy Moore/Gov. Raúl Labrador - 40.6%

[PragmaticPopulist]

438: Sen. Joe Kennedy III/Gov. Henry Cuellar - 53.7%
100: Sen. Roy Moore/Gov. Raúl Labrador - 40.6%

You really think Moore would lose Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and West Virginia?

[Kingpoleon]

Yes. Kennedy's coalition is that of many white, working class Southerners, as well as Mormons, moderates, Hispanics, and the youth - particularly minorities.

[Alabama_Indy10]

438: Sen. Joe Kennedy III/Gov. Henry Cuellar - 53.7%
100: Sen. Roy Moore/Gov. Raúl Labrador - 40.6%

You really think Moore would lose Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and West Virginia?

No.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Joe Kennedy
Roy Moore

2024 will see a much-more-progressive-than-today electorate, giving Kennedy a boost. He's also charismatic and (imo) reasonably attractive, helping him out more. On top of that, Roy Moore will also be 77 years old by 2024
If it were Kennedy v Moore, I think it would be a Kennedy landslide. Closest states would be S.C., Indiana and Missouri

[Kingpoleon]

438: Sen. Joe Kennedy III/Gov. Henry Cuellar - 53.7%
100: Sen. Roy Moore/Gov. Raúl Labrador - 40.6%

You really think Moore would lose Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and West Virginia?

No.

I assume African Americans will be important in the Deep South, and WWC voters would vote for Kennedy in a way they never have before. "Post-Moore", the party would presumably nominate Sununu or Tisei, or maybe Stefanik. I can see Amash/Sununu being the ticket in 2028, and then Stefanik would win in 2032 against Secretary of State Jack Schlossberg, the former Ambassador to Japan and former Mayor of New York City.

[Former Senator Haslam2020]

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

#Texit or toss-up?

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Joe Kennedy
Roy Moore

2024 will see a much-more-progressive-than-today electorate, giving Kennedy a boost. He's also charismatic and (imo) reasonably attractive, helping him out more. On top of that, Roy Moore will also be 77 years old by 2024
If it were Kennedy v Moore, I think it would be a Kennedy landslide. Closest states would be S.C., Indiana and Missouri

I agree with this map. a theocratic madman like Moore has zero chance of winning a modern Presidential election, when 60%+ of people support Same-Sex Marriage, and are evenly split on abortion.

[Former Senator Haslam2020]

#Texit or toss-up?

Toss up 😂

[Medal506]

Joe Kennedy
Roy Moore

2024 will see a much-more-progressive-than-today electorate, giving Kennedy a boost. He's also charismatic and (imo) reasonably attractive, helping him out more. On top of that, Roy Moore will also be 77 years old by 2024
If it were Kennedy v Moore, I think it would be a Kennedy landslide. Closest states would be S.C., Indiana and Missouri

I agree with this map. a theocratic madman like Moore has zero chance of winning a modern Presidential election, when 60%+ of people support Same-Sex Marriage, and are evenly split on abortion.

Generation Z: people born 2000-2025 are much will be one of the most conservative generation since baby boomers so i think the exact opposite will happen.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Joe Kennedy
Roy Moore

2024 will see a much-more-progressive-than-today electorate, giving Kennedy a boost. He's also charismatic and (imo) reasonably attractive, helping him out more. On top of that, Roy Moore will also be 77 years old by 2024
If it were Kennedy v Moore, I think it would be a Kennedy landslide. Closest states would be S.C., Indiana and Missouri

I agree with this map. a theocratic madman like Moore has zero chance of winning a modern Presidential election, when 60%+ of people support Same-Sex Marriage, and are evenly split on abortion.

Generation Z: people born 2000-2025 are much will be one of the most conservative generation since baby boomers so i think the exact opposite will happen.

Thanks for all the evidence.

[mirashh]

Generation Z: people born 2000-2025 are much will be one of the most conservative generation since baby boomers so i think the exact opposite will happen.

They're conservative only fiscally. Socially they're as liberal as millennials. imo, Moderate Democrats will be the ones who will attract Gen Z the most.

[Don Vito Corleone]

Joe Kennedy
Roy Moore

2024 will see a much-more-progressive-than-today electorate, giving Kennedy a boost. He's also charismatic and (imo) reasonably attractive, helping him out more. On top of that, Roy Moore will also be 77 years old by 2024
If it were Kennedy v Moore, I think it would be a Kennedy landslide. Closest states would be S.C., Indiana and Missouri

I agree with this map. a theocratic madman like Moore has zero chance of winning a modern Presidential election, when 60%+ of people support Same-Sex Marriage, and are evenly split on abortion.

Generation Z: people born 2000-2025 are much will be one of the most conservative generation since baby boomers so i think the exact opposite will happen.

Ah yes, those youngsters, so conservative they are with their #resist hashtag and making fun of Donald Trump almost every single goddamn day .

[Gass3268]

Joe Kennedy
Roy Moore

2024 will see a much-more-progressive-than-today electorate, giving Kennedy a boost. He's also charismatic and (imo) reasonably attractive, helping him out more. On top of that, Roy Moore will also be 77 years old by 2024
If it were Kennedy v Moore, I think it would be a Kennedy landslide. Closest states would be S.C., Indiana and Missouri

I agree with this map. a theocratic madman like Moore has zero chance of winning a modern Presidential election, when 60%+ of people support Same-Sex Marriage, and are evenly split on abortion.

Generation Z: people born 2000-2025 are much will be one of the most conservative generation since baby boomers so i think the exact opposite will happen.

This is such a pipe dream.

[TheSaint250]

Joe Kennedy
Roy Moore

2024 will see a much-more-progressive-than-today electorate, giving Kennedy a boost. He's also charismatic and (imo) reasonably attractive, helping him out more. On top of that, Roy Moore will also be 77 years old by 2024
If it were Kennedy v Moore, I think it would be a Kennedy landslide. Closest states would be S.C., Indiana and Missouri

I agree with this map. a theocratic madman like Moore has zero chance of winning a modern Presidential election, when 60%+ of people support Same-Sex Marriage, and are evenly split on abortion.

Generation Z: people born 2000-2025 are much will be one of the most conservative generation since baby boomers so i think the exact opposite will happen.

This is such a pipe dream.

Gen Z will lean Republican but will be more libertarian than conservative.

[Medal506]

Senator Roy Moore (R-AL)/Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) - 335 EV 51.3% PV

Congressman Joe Kennedy (D-MA)/Senator Kristen Gillibramd (D-NY) - 203 EV 47.5% PV

[OBD]

I highly doubt Roy Moore could win a presidential election, given his positions.

[Dr. MB]

Sen. Joe Kennedy/Rep. Tulsi Gabbard: 458
Sen. Roy Moore/Sen. Liz Cheney: 80

[OBD]

Hey, fellow Oregonian!

Yeah, that prediction is pretty sensical, though Kansas would probably go to Moore.

[bagelman]

I think SD would go to Kennedy, narrowly.