I doubt she gets far if she runs though, unless she has some political skills she hasn't shown yet, and kind of suspect she's likely to have a Rubio-esque moment in a debate.
I agree with you in the narrow sense that she's more likely to flop than not, but that's true of pretty much everyone in the field. No one person is more than 50% likely to be the nominee at this point. But I'd certainly give Harris a decent chance of being the nominee. I'd surely put her in the top five. I mean, serious question: If Harris isn't one of the top five most likely people to be the 2020 Dem. nominee, then who is?
Especially in the event that Biden and Sanders both decide not to run because of age/health, then who are the talented pols in the Democratic field who have actually shown an interest in a presidential run, who you think would outshine Harris? Would Warren just run away with the nomination in that case, or do you have someone else in mind?