If Rubio's glass jaw doesn't shatter:Rubio/Kasich: 276 EVClinton/Kaine: 262 EVPopular vote is anyone's guess, Rubio, IMHO eeks it out here. New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, Virginia, and North Carolina are all decided by less than 3%. Hillary does better in Ohio and Iowa than OTL, but still loses them by 5% or more. She also loses Florida by a bigger margin.
If Hillary shatters the glass ceiling and the glass jaw:Clinton/Kaine: 285 EVRubio/Kasich: 253 EVShe wins the popular vote by around the same margin that she did against Trump. As is the case with a Rubio victory, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, Virginia, and North Carolina are all decided by less than 3% but in this case so are Iowa and Maine's Second District, which she wins, and Ohio. Florida goes unchanged from the Rubio victory scenario. I know a lot of people think or thought Hillary had a landslide in the bag, but even in 2015 and 2016 I didn't think it was the case. She's no Bill Clinton or Barack Obama when it comes to campaigning and it's hard for a party to win a 3rd consecutive election. The only time against Trump that I thought she'd meet or exceed Obama's 2012 margin of victory was after the access Hollywood tape came out, but once the Comey letter came out, that changed.
