Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
December 17, 2017, 04:40:34 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Be sure to enable your "Ultimate Profile" for even more goodies on your profile page!

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  2020 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter, TJ in Wisco)
| | |-+  Is Sherrod Brown the most likely white male to be the 2020 Dem. VP nominee?
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: Is Sherrod Brown the most likely white male to be the 2020 Dem. VP nominee?  (Read 421 times)
Mr. Morden
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 35276
United States


View Profile
« on: August 20, 2017, 03:03:19 pm »
Ignore

Seems like, in the event that:

1) He's reelected next year, which certainly seems more likely than not, and
2) The Dems manage to retake the Ohio governorship, which allows Brown's successor to be appointed by a Democratic governor (this is much dicier, but certainly possible), then

Brown is the odds on favorite to be the 2020 Dem. VP nominee.  In fact, even factoring in the fact that those two things are uncertain, I'd still put him as the favorite.  The one main argument against him would be if the presidential nominee wanted a "diversity" pick.  If, say, Biden or (lol) Cuomo is the presidential nominee, then there's a good chance they'd pick a racial minority or a woman.  But if the presidential nominee is Warren or Harris or Booker or Gillibrand, then yeah, Brown would be high on the list.  Heck, if the presidential nominee is Bernie Sanders, I'd say Brown is also high on the list, as Sanders's age will mean that he'll want to pick a running mate who is both qualified to take over as president and committed to carrying out his economic agenda, and there are only so many people who qualify.

It's also possible that someone breaks out in the 2020 primaries but doesn't win the nomination, and that puts them on a fast track to the vice presidency, a la Kerry picking Edwards in '04.  But more often than not, the VP pick isn't someone who ran for president that year.
Logged

My magnum opus is now complete.  Read the complete "The Adventures of Hobo Orgy Guy & Blondie" (now in paperback).

What is your opinion of this thread?

Being a moderator is basically like one giant party.  Except you're the one ruining the party and everyone hates you.
Technocracy Timmy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3733


View Profile
« Reply #1 on: August 20, 2017, 03:07:07 pm »
Ignore

He's easily the biggest dark horse on the Democratic side of the aisle. There were a few rumblings right after the election about a potential candidacy from him but not anymore. He's almost completely out of the discussion as of right now and that's a good thing for him this early on.

If I'm not mistaken he stated at one point something along the lines of "Everybody says they aren't running until they run." I think he'll jump into 2020. 
Logged

Orange County Suburbanite

xīngkěruì
xingkerui
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11306
Taiwan


Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

P P
View Profile
« Reply #2 on: August 20, 2017, 03:33:18 pm »
Ignore

He's definitely underrated as a potential candidate, but if Democrats can't win the gubernatorial race in Ohio, that makes his situation complicated.
Logged

Holmes
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10851
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74


View Profile
« Reply #3 on: August 20, 2017, 03:45:26 pm »
Ignore

He's easily the biggest dark horse on the Democratic side of the aisle. There were a few rumblings right after the election about a potential candidacy from him but not anymore. He's almost completely out of the discussion as of right now and that's a good thing for him this early on.

If I'm not mistaken he stated at one point something along the lines of "Everybody says they aren't running until they run." I think he'll jump into 2020. 

I think the reason the rumblings have subsided is because of his re-election campaign. Like Morden said, if he's re-elected (likely) and a Democrat wins the governorship (dicey), then talk of Brown will increase.
Logged

Technocracy Timmy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3733


View Profile
« Reply #4 on: August 20, 2017, 06:07:14 pm »
Ignore

He's easily the biggest dark horse on the Democratic side of the aisle. There were a few rumblings right after the election about a potential candidacy from him but not anymore. He's almost completely out of the discussion as of right now and that's a good thing for him this early on.

If I'm not mistaken he stated at one point something along the lines of "Everybody says they aren't running until they run." I think he'll jump into 2020.  

I think the reason the rumblings have subsided is because of his re-election campaign. Like Morden said, if he's re-elected (likely) and a Democrat wins the governorship (dicey), then talk of Brown will increase.

I'd be concerned going into 2018 if the Democrats can't win the gubernatorial race and/or Brown loses his senate seat during a Trump midterm where his approvals will likely range from 30-37%. Not that a Democrat can't win in 2020, but it increases the chances that it'll be a very weak polarizing victory where they'll immediately be in trouble with their slim majorities come 2022 and 2024.
Logged

Orange County Suburbanite

Coraxion
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 921
Ethiopia


View Profile
« Reply #5 on: August 20, 2017, 06:17:51 pm »
Ignore

Brown being on the ticket would be a bad decision even if Dems win the Ohio governorship. There's no way some random state legislator manages to hold on to a seat in ruby-red Ohio.
Logged

Senate Endorsements
AL: Doug Jones
NV: Jacky Rosen
AZ: Kyrsten Sinema
TX: Beto O'Rourke
UT: Jim Matheson
MO: Claire McCaskill
IN: Joe Donnelly
WV: Joe Manchin
MT: Jon Tester
ND: Heidi Heitkamp
WI: Tammy Baldwin
OH: Sherrod Brown
MI: Debbie Stabenow
FL: Bill Nelson
ME: Angus King
VA: Tim Kaine
PA: Bob Casey
Vosem
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9729
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.13, S: -6.26


View Profile
« Reply #6 on: August 20, 2017, 06:35:22 pm »
Ignore

No, not with his wife-beating past. I don't even think he's the likeliest Ohioan 2020 Democratic VP nominee -- that would be Tim Ryan, who has more obvious national ambitions and fewer obvious skeletons in his closet (though I guess he did used to work for Traficant).
Logged

I will NOT be accepting any result other than a victory for America's next President, Governor Gary Earl Johnson Angry
Technocracy Timmy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3733


View Profile
« Reply #7 on: August 20, 2017, 06:37:57 pm »
Ignore

No, not with his wife-beating past.

If this posed a serious problem for him then why did he get elected as senator twice in a purple/lean red state? Also a senator is far more likely to run than a representative.
Logged

Orange County Suburbanite

Mr. Morden
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 35276
United States


View Profile
« Reply #8 on: August 20, 2017, 06:41:54 pm »
Ignore

Brown being on the ticket would be a bad decision even if Dems win the Ohio governorship. There's no way some random state legislator manages to hold on to a seat in ruby-red Ohio.

That may be, but most presidential nominees don't think that way when deciding on a running mate.  Heck, Clinton reportedly gave Brown serious consideration for VP last year, despite the fact that Kasich would have picked his replacement.
Logged

My magnum opus is now complete.  Read the complete "The Adventures of Hobo Orgy Guy & Blondie" (now in paperback).

What is your opinion of this thread?

Being a moderator is basically like one giant party.  Except you're the one ruining the party and everyone hates you.
NewYorkExpress
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6541
United States


View Profile
« Reply #9 on: August 20, 2017, 07:21:32 pm »
Ignore

I don't think the Democrats will have a White Male on the ticket at all (and the ticket might even be something like Castro/Booker or Booker/Harris).
Logged

Possiblymaybe
Full Member
***
Posts: 176
View Profile
« Reply #10 on: August 20, 2017, 08:18:24 pm »
Ignore

He's extremely underrated and one of the few candidates who would appeal to both Bernie and Clinton supporters.
Logged

Mr. Morden
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 35276
United States


View Profile
« Reply #11 on: August 20, 2017, 08:28:15 pm »
Ignore

Btw, as discussed in the Tea Leaves thread, this WaPo piece from last month definitely makes it sound like Brown was eager to run as VP last year, had Clinton picked him:

WaPo has a new story on Sherrod Brown in which he’s asked about running for prez in 2020, and he says “I just don’t want to do it”:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/style/sherrod-brown-thinks-he-could-have-helped-democrats-win-in-2016-but-what-about-2020/2017/07/23/168ac16c-6b2d-11e7-b9e2-2056e768a7e5_story.html?utm_term=.f5c85a999a39

Quote
“I come from here, I know how to win elections here — I get all that,” Brown said. “But I just don’t want to do it.”

In other words, Sherrod Brown will never want to run for president. Unless, of course, one day, he does.

The story also includes a lot of discussion about Brown’s participation in the veepstakes last year.  Despite his current denial of interest in running for prez, he says that he “relished” the idea of campaigning in other Midwestern states, had he been the VP nominee last year:

Quote
He relished the idea of campaigning in the Midwest, he says now, and offered to live out of a bus that would spend all its time in Western Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin and Iowa.

Three days before the selection he heard from “someone who knows this process” that it was down to him and Sen. Tim Kaine of Virginia. Later, after Kaine was unveiled as the No. 2, Brown says he heard from a former high-ranking Democratic official that Clinton had initially picked him but changed her mind.

Logged

My magnum opus is now complete.  Read the complete "The Adventures of Hobo Orgy Guy & Blondie" (now in paperback).

What is your opinion of this thread?

Being a moderator is basically like one giant party.  Except you're the one ruining the party and everyone hates you.
AN63093
63093
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 455


Political Matrix
E: 0.58, S: 4.78

View Profile
« Reply #12 on: August 20, 2017, 08:35:02 pm »
Ignore

Assuming Biden or Sanders don't run/win, then yes, I'd say he's got as good a shot as any other white male, and is definitely on the short list (as of now, that is).

Morden, I disagree that Brown would be likely in the case of a Sanders win.  Sure, Sanders would want someone that shared his economic vision, but who Sanders wants, and who Sanders would ultimately pick, are two different things.  

There would be too much pressure for him to pick a minority, female, or both.  This would be further aggravated by the fact that if Sanders is winning, that means he most likely beat a female, or a minority, or both (a la Harris).  There is likely to be a lot of discord in the party because of that, and the pressure for Sanders to pick a non-white male will be too great for him.

Consider that Sanders has not particularly shown a lot of backbone when it comes to standing up to challenges.  Take his stance on illegal immigration, which he pulled a sudden, complete 180 on because of a Vox interview with Ezra Klein, of all people.  He'd cave even faster on this.
Logged

Veteran, Attorney, Nationalist, Apatheist, Pragmatist, Realist (foreign policy), NY native, votes D and R with roughly equal frequency.

Favorite political book: Dalrymple's superb Life at the Bottom.

My definitive map of US Regions.

Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines