Will she or won't she?
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  Will she or won't she?
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Poll
Question: Is Elizabeth Warren going to run?
#1
Yes.
#2
Yes, but she's gonna quite before Iowa.
#3
No.
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Partisan results


Author Topic: Will she or won't she?  (Read 2414 times)
mcmikk
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« Reply #25 on: August 21, 2017, 12:58:10 AM »

I hope not, she'll give Donald a second term.

lololol...this sounds awfully familiar, like when Jimmy Carter's 1980 campaign manager Pat Cadell said that Ronald Reagan would be easy to defeat:



Keep running middle of the road trash if you want to choke like a dog and lose 2020
Thanks, Mondale and McGovern.

This isn't the 70s and 80s anymore. It's the 21st century, and rallying y9ur base is the only way to win in the US. Progressives are usually very good at that.
Doubt it. Their progressive savior(Warren or whoever) could end up having one insignificant position where they disagree with most of the progressive base, and then the progressive purists are going to start calling them Republican-lite. This kind of obsessive nitpicking and these purity tests are going to be the death of liberalism in American government. Liberals will keep being angry at Democrats for losing while continuing to not vote for Democrats.
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Harlow
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« Reply #26 on: August 21, 2017, 01:05:24 AM »

Hopefully not. We need somebody with a broader appeal who can crush the Donald by massive numbers. Liz Warren is not that person.

*chants of "Ohhhh, Jeremy Corbyn" ring in the distance*
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Bojack Horseman
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« Reply #27 on: August 21, 2017, 02:19:55 AM »

I think she'll at least form an exploratory committee. I'd love to see her run but I do think some of her past might come back to haunt her in the primary. The base hated Hillary because she wasn't progressive enough, so Warren might run into trouble with the fact that she was a Republican before 1995 or whenever it was that she changed parties.
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Fuzzy Stands With His Friend, Chairman Sanchez
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« Reply #28 on: August 21, 2017, 11:25:38 AM »

She'll run and she'll be in at least the first few rounds of contests (IA, NH, SC).  Beyond that, we'll see.  She's the leader of the "Progressive Movement" within the Democratic Party (key words "Democratic Party", Bernie).  I believe she'll be pushed to run to keep Bernie on the sidelines, because Bernie isn't really a Democrat.  That fact is lost on many here, but how could a political party credibly nominate someone as its Presidential standard bearer who didn't even self-identify?
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Saint Milei
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« Reply #29 on: August 21, 2017, 12:06:42 PM »

Nah
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Anzeigenhauptmeister
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« Reply #30 on: August 21, 2017, 05:15:37 PM »

She'll run and she'll be in at least the first few rounds of contests (IA, NH, SC).  Beyond that, we'll see.  She's the leader of the "Progressive Movement" within the Democratic Party (key words "Democratic Party", Bernie).  I believe she'll be pushed to run to keep Bernie on the sidelines, because Bernie isn't really a Democrat.  That fact is lost on many here, but how could a political party credibly nominate someone as its Presidential standard bearer who didn't even self-identify?

I'm pretty sure she will win Iowa, and I believe it's like guaranteed that she will win New Hampshire. South Carolina, however, could become a huge problem for her.
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Rookie Yinzer
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« Reply #31 on: August 21, 2017, 05:20:59 PM »

Hopefully not. We need somebody with a broader appeal who can crush the Donald by massive numbers. Liz Warren is not that person.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #32 on: August 21, 2017, 05:38:14 PM »

Unless another progressive one runs, she probably will as standard bearer of the more left wing elements.  While she would be wildly popular here in Canada, and could make things interesting in Britain, I am not sure she would do so well in the US.  Yes Sanders did well in the primaries but I think a lot of Americans still are fairly pro free market and the whole soak the rich type politics doesn't have the appeal in the US (despite the highest levels of inequality in the developed world) it does elsewhere.  In many ways the US has taken a strong swing to the right so its tough to say if a more progressive one would bring out their voters necessary or if choosing a centrist would be better.  It also could be the Democrats just have to wait until the GOP goes too far, but even there it seems while too far to the left is very much an issue in American politics, I question whether there is such thing as too far to the right in US politics, certainly Trump put them into question.
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McGovernForPrez
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« Reply #33 on: August 21, 2017, 05:59:35 PM »

Liz isn't running.
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GoTfan
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« Reply #34 on: August 21, 2017, 06:23:12 PM »

Hopefully not. We need somebody with a broader appeal who can crush the Donald by massive numbers. Liz Warren is not that person.

Sorry, I don't buy the broader appeal tning. It's nonexistent in the US. Stop chasing Republican votes and go after Democrats instead. How's that for a novel idea?
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GoTfan
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« Reply #35 on: August 21, 2017, 06:31:15 PM »

Sorry, I don't buy the broader appeal tning. It's nonexistent in the US. Stop chasing Republican votes and go after Democrats instead. How's that for a novel idea?

It comes with the territory of having the Electoral College elect Presidents.

You need to excite the progressive base in the US. Wareen can do that. Hillary couldn't. Maybe Democrats need to start chasing their own base before touting the backing of Henry Kissinger.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #36 on: August 21, 2017, 06:38:05 PM »

Sorry, I don't buy the broader appeal tning. It's nonexistent in the US. Stop chasing Republican votes and go after Democrats instead. How's that for a novel idea?

It comes with the territory of having the Electoral College elect Presidents.

You need to excite the progressive base in the US. Wareen can do that. Hillary couldn't. Maybe Democrats need to start chasing their own base before touting the backing of Henry Kissinger.

That assumes there is a large enough progressive base to win off.  My understanding of the US is it is a fairly conservative country and a lot of Americans believe in American exceptionalism so anything that is seen as making the US more like Europe (or as a matter of fact Canada too) tends to be a tough sell.
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White Trash
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« Reply #37 on: August 21, 2017, 06:41:02 PM »

Sorry, I don't buy the broader appeal tning. It's nonexistent in the US. Stop chasing Republican votes and go after Democrats instead. How's that for a novel idea?

It comes with the territory of having the Electoral College elect Presidents.

You need to excite the progressive base in the US. Wareen can do that. Hillary couldn't. Maybe Democrats need to start chasing their own base before touting the backing of Henry Kissinger.

That assumes there is a large enough progressive base to win off.  My understanding of the US is it is a fairly conservative country and a lot of Americans believe in American exceptionalism so anything that is seen as making the US more like Europe (or as a matter of fact Canada too) tends to be a tough sell.
You can sell progressivism without being contrary to American exceptionalism.
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GoTfan
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« Reply #38 on: August 21, 2017, 06:41:18 PM »

Sorry, I don't buy the broader appeal tning. It's nonexistent in the US. Stop chasing Republican votes and go after Democrats instead. How's that for a novel idea?

It comes with the territory of having the Electoral College elect Presidents.

You need to excite the progressive base in the US. Wareen can do that. Hillary couldn't. Maybe Democrats need to start chasing their own base before touting the backing of Henry Kissinger.

That assumes there is a large enough progressive base to win off.  My understanding of the US is it is a fairly conservative country and a lot of Americans believe in American exceptionalism so anything that is seen as making the US more like Europe (or as a matter of fact Canada too) tends to be a tough sell.

Did you see Bernie's campaign or were you distracted by a bumblebee?

A lot of that base is going to be young voters and blue-collar workers from the industrial states. That is the base Democrats need to excite, or they're going to lose again and again.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #39 on: August 21, 2017, 06:55:17 PM »

Sorry, I don't buy the broader appeal tning. It's nonexistent in the US. Stop chasing Republican votes and go after Democrats instead. How's that for a novel idea?

It comes with the territory of having the Electoral College elect Presidents.

You need to excite the progressive base in the US. Wareen can do that. Hillary couldn't. Maybe Democrats need to start chasing their own base before touting the backing of Henry Kissinger.

That assumes there is a large enough progressive base to win off.  My understanding of the US is it is a fairly conservative country and a lot of Americans believe in American exceptionalism so anything that is seen as making the US more like Europe (or as a matter of fact Canada too) tends to be a tough sell.

Did you see Bernie's campaign or were you distracted by a bumblebee?

A lot of that base is going to be young voters and blue-collar workers from the industrial states. That is the base Democrats need to excite, or they're going to lose again and again.

I saw what happened, but also it's all speculation how he would have done in a general election.  Yes the polls showed he would have done better, but no doubt when the GOP and all the Koch Brother third party ads were rolled out, would have his numbers held up?  Perhaps, maybe not.  Never mind with congress many of his more progressive ideas would have been DOA.  I think the reason I am skeptical is everytime single payer health care has been on the ballot be it Oregon about 15 years ago or more recently Colorado it's gone down in flames in spectacular motion.  Yes I realize a lot of that was over the details not the concept and if it was say a 60/40 split I might think the public was more open to it but close to an 80/20 is what makes me skeptical.  I think the price tag of a lot of Bernie's promises is where he might have trouble.  Sure he would do this by raising taxes on the rich which is reasonably popular, but you can bet being pounded for 3 months by negative attack ads saying he would raise everyone's taxes (believe me the GOP will say this even if untrue) would probably take its toll.  That's not to say a progressive like her couldn't win, but I think a charismatic slightly progressive but not too left wing is what the party needs.  Part of the reason Obama won while Clinton and Kerry didn't is Obama was able to connect with people on a personal level quite well while both of the other two came across as cold fish and distant and lacked the emotional connection that Obama was able to establish.  I think someone like Julian Castro who is a great orator like Obama is probably more where the party needs to look.
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« Reply #40 on: August 21, 2017, 08:02:14 PM »

Even if she were to somehow excite the base enough to win, a senator from a navy blue state who's never lost an election and who's only been in politics since 2013 would not be a particularly effective President. No board sweeping progressive agenda will happen unless the Democrats win a large majority of the country (55%+).

That's why Obama lost twice...
By the way, If Warren wins, she will have been a senator for seven years.

I don't see how she's preferable to somebody like Sherrod Brown. 

So, you wanna say that a senator from a "navy blue state who's never lost an election" is less electable than a senator from a deep-puple-turning-red state who will have lost his next election?
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« Reply #41 on: August 21, 2017, 08:43:20 PM »

Illinois isn't navy blue, and Obama won downstate Illinois handily (granted he ran against a garbage candidate) as a Chicago candidate. His appeal in downstate Illinois appeared to resonate in the rest of the Midwest. Where exactly does Warren wrap up extra support? New Hampshire and Maine I suppose but that's a paltry amount of EV's.

In Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, Montana, perhaps even Utah and Alaska.

Also Obama's lack of D.C. and/or executive political experience wasn't a good thing when it came to cutting deals, twisting arms, and working with the bureaucracy to push through legislation.

Doesn't every presidential candidate have a lack of D.C. experience? Basically you're claiming that only U.S. secretaries and White House staff are capable of being an efficient president, aren't you?

Also the reelection rate for senators since 1982 is 96%. Brown has won twice in Ohio before and 2018 will be a midterm with Trump hovering between 30-37% approval. I don't see how anybody can claim that Brown is somehow destined to lose this early on. Wasn't Hillary Clinton leading every generic Republican this early on as well in polling data?

Ohio has become too Republican. If Kasich runs, which I'm assuming, Brown will have no chance. Kasich is way too popular.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #42 on: August 21, 2017, 09:06:03 PM »

Sorry, I don't buy the broader appeal tning. It's nonexistent in the US. Stop chasing Republican votes and go after Democrats instead. How's that for a novel idea?

It comes with the territory of having the Electoral College elect Presidents.

You need to excite the progressive base in the US. Wareen can do that. Hillary couldn't. Maybe Democrats need to start chasing their own base before touting the backing of Henry Kissinger.

That assumes there is a large enough progressive base to win off.  My understanding of the US is it is a fairly conservative country and a lot of Americans believe in American exceptionalism so anything that is seen as making the US more like Europe (or as a matter of fact Canada too) tends to be a tough sell.

Remind me again of what issues Stephen Harper and Andrew Scheer are to the left of even Ted Cruz on?
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mileslunn
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« Reply #43 on: August 21, 2017, 09:35:53 PM »


Ohio has become too Republican. If Kasich runs, which I'm assuming, Brown will have no chance. Kasich is way too popular.

It swung hard towards the GOP the past presidential election, but Obama won it both times, so we shall see.  Lets remember the Midwest in 2008 was one of the areas that swung most heavily towards Obama just like it did for Trump, so I think with the economy struggling it could be more a case of swinging against the incumbent.  We will have a better idea after 2020 if Ohio is going the way of Missouri or it's just a blip.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #44 on: August 21, 2017, 09:39:23 PM »

Sorry, I don't buy the broader appeal tning. It's nonexistent in the US. Stop chasing Republican votes and go after Democrats instead. How's that for a novel idea?

It comes with the territory of having the Electoral College elect Presidents.

You need to excite the progressive base in the US. Wareen can do that. Hillary couldn't. Maybe Democrats need to start chasing their own base before touting the backing of Henry Kissinger.

That assumes there is a large enough progressive base to win off.  My understanding of the US is it is a fairly conservative country and a lot of Americans believe in American exceptionalism so anything that is seen as making the US more like Europe (or as a matter of fact Canada too) tends to be a tough sell.

Remind me again of what issues Stephen Harper and Andrew Scheer are to the left of even Ted Cruz on?

I cannot read their mind, but on policies plenty.  Neither advocate a 10% flat tax.  Maybe they favour tax cuts for the rich but the top marginal rate under them was still over 40% when you add in the provincial rates whereas under Cruz it would have been in the teens.  Neither have called for abolishing Revenue Canada.  Neither support concealed carry and neither support outright privatization of health care.  Yes they may favour a parallel private system like you have in Britain, Australia, and New Zealand (and in fact we already sort of have it Canada, I get an MRI by paying and will be getting shoulder surgery at a private pay clinic), but not outright privatization like the US.  Scheer and Harper would be similar to Kasich on the political spectrum which is very right wing by Canadian standards by quite middle of the road by American.  Someone like Justin Trudeau wouldn't be able to win on the platform he ran on last election.  Yes he probably could win in the US, due to his charisma but he would have to run on a very different platform (I don't think he has that strong a principles and suspect he would run on a different one if he lived in the US).
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