PVI by state in 2032?

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

Title says it all.

My prediction (30% = 5% lean or less, 60% = between 10% and 5% lean, 90% = over 10% lean, green = even)

Some key states:

• Texas = R+1 (shift of D+7)
• Mississippi = R+5 (shift of D+4)
• South Carolina = R+5 (shift of D+3)
• Michigan = R+2 (shift of R+3)
• Wisconsin = R+2 (shift of R+2)
• Virginia = D+5 (shift of D+4)
• North Carolina = D+2 (shift of D+5)
• Ohio = R+6 (shift of R+3)
• Iowa = R+6 (shift of R+3)
• Alaska = R+4 (shift of D+5)
• New Hampshire = D+4 (shift of D+4)
• New Mexico = D+8 (shift of D+5)
• Colorado = D+5 (shift of D+4)
• Nevada = D+4 (shift of D+3)
• Missouri = R+14 (shift of R+5)
• Illinois = D+6 (shift of R+1)
• Pennsylvania = R+3 (shift of R+3)
• Minnesota = EVEN (shift of R+1)
• Maine = EVEN (shift of R+3)
• Florida = EVEN (shift of D+2)
• Georiga = D+1 (shift of D+6)
• Arizona = D+2 (shift of D+7)

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

There will almost certainly have been a realignment by then. My best guess would be 2032 would be the first republican victory since 2016.
2028 probably looked like this:

and then 2032 like this

So for PVI's I'd say:

[_]

There will almost certainly have been a realignment by then. My best guess would be 2032 would be the first republican victory since 2016.
2028 probably looked like this:

and then 2032 like this

So for PVI's I'd say:

I can't see  TN, GA, and NC flipping back to R in that type of realignment, reasoning on CO going R?

[MT Treasurer]

30%: 5% lean or less
40%: 10% lean or less
50%: 15% lean or less
60%: 20% lean or less
70%: 25% lean or less

[AN63093]

Assuming no realignment and polarization continues (which I think is more likely than a realignment happening), that's a relatively plausible map, slightlyburnttoast.  With one exception, I think more of New England will trend R.

This is my prediction for that scenario:

2.  TT's generational theory may be correct, and an economic crisis may occur, but even so, all of this is overshadowed by increased and extremely intense polarization rooted in racial stratification of the parties, leading to a South Africa type system.  The GOP is essentially the White party, the Dems are the "others."  Neither party platform is significantly different on economic issues, and all debates eventually lead back to identity politics.  After a few decades the country is at serious risk of Balkanizing and racial/ethnic strife and violence are relatively common.  Elections are almost entirely just a turnout battle in the 4 toss-ups between whites and minorities.  There are no swing states except the lighter shaded ones in 50-50 years.

PV percentages are not literal... lighter shading just indicates closer states.

[mvd10]

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I can't see  TN, GA, and NC flipping back to R in that type of realignment, reasoning on CO going R?
[/quote]

A lot of people think the Democrats will nominate more "populist" candidates like Brown or Sanders in order to appeal to the WWC (trying to win the EC sucks when your coalition consists out of people who all are clustered in California). The GOP will become some sort of technocratic centre-right party in order to win back college-educated whites, Asians and other affluent minorities who used to vote Democratic because they hated the GOP culture wars, but feel betrayed by all the tax increases. Colorado seems like a great state for the GOP in that case (lots of college-educated whites and hispanics, two groups a less Southern GOP would perform better with).

[RINO Tom]

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I can't see  TN, GA, and NC flipping back to R in that type of realignment, reasoning on CO going R?

A lot of people think the Democrats will nominate more "populist" candidates like Brown or Sanders in order to appeal to the WWC (trying to win the EC sucks when your coalition consists out of people who all are clustered in California). The GOP will become some sort of technocratic centre-right party in order to win back keep winning college-educated whites, Asians and other affluent minorities who used to vote Democratic because they hated the GOP culture wars, but feel betrayed by all the tax increases. Colorado seems like a great state for the GOP in that case (lots of college-educated whites and hispanics, two groups a less Southern GOP would perform better with).
[/quote]

FTFY

[libertpaulian]

What is it with everyone making New Hampshire so Democratic while Maine goes so Republican?!

New Hampshire has always voted to the RIGHT of Maine.  If Maine is Tossup or Tilt R, then New Hampshire should be Tilt R or Lean R.

[MT Treasurer]

What is it with everyone making New Hampshire so Democratic while Maine goes so Republican?!

New Hampshire has always voted to the RIGHT of Maine.  If Maine is Tossup or Tilt R, then New Hampshire should be Tilt R or Lean R.

"Virginia has almost ALWAYS voted to the RIGHT of West Virginia. If WV is Safe R in 2020, then VA should be Titanium R." - Someone in 1996

Bottom line: Past election results tell us nothing about how the electoral map in 15 years will look like or how states will trend in the future.

[libertpaulian]

What is it with everyone making New Hampshire so Democratic while Maine goes so Republican?!

New Hampshire has always voted to the RIGHT of Maine.  If Maine is Tossup or Tilt R, then New Hampshire should be Tilt R or Lean R.

"Virginia has almost ALWAYS voted to the RIGHT of West Virginia. If WV is Safe R in 2020, then VA should be Titanium R." - Someone in 1996

Bottom line: Past election results tell us nothing about how the electoral map in 15 years will look like or how states will trend in the future.

NH has been trending to the right in the 21st century.

[Young Moderate Republican]

This would be my assumption if the Trump trend continues

[Young Conservative]

30%: 5% lean or less
40%: 10% lean or less
50%: 15% lean or less
60%: 20% lean or less
70%: 25% lean or less

This, but New hampshire Pink

[Figueira]

New Hampshire and Maine are very different states, so it's entirely possible that they could have opposite trends in the future. I wouldn't rule out NH trending R while ME trends D either, although that's less likely IMO.

What is it with everyone making New Hampshire so Democratic while Maine goes so Republican?!

New Hampshire has always voted to the RIGHT of Maine.  If Maine is Tossup or Tilt R, then New Hampshire should be Tilt R or Lean R.

"Virginia has almost ALWAYS voted to the RIGHT of West Virginia. If WV is Safe R in 2020, then VA should be Titanium R." - Someone in 1996

Bottom line: Past election results tell us nothing about how the electoral map in 15 years will look like or how states will trend in the future.

NH has been trending to the right in the 21st century.

I mean we could have a thread called "If you extend every trend that has happened since 2000 infinitely into the future, what would the PVI map be like in 2032?" but then we'd all have the same map.

[Figueira]

New Hampshire and Maine are very different states, so it's entirely possible that they could have opposite trends in the future. I wouldn't rule out NH trending R while ME trends D either, although that's less likely IMO.

What is it with everyone making New Hampshire so Democratic while Maine goes so Republican?!

New Hampshire has always voted to the RIGHT of Maine.  If Maine is Tossup or Tilt R, then New Hampshire should be Tilt R or Lean R.

"Virginia has almost ALWAYS voted to the RIGHT of West Virginia. If WV is Safe R in 2020, then VA should be Titanium R." - Someone in 1996

Bottom line: Past election results tell us nothing about how the electoral map in 15 years will look like or how states will trend in the future.

NH has been trending to the right in the 21st century.

I mean we could have a thread called "If you extend every trend that has happened since 2000 infinitely into the future, what would the PVI map be like in 2032?" but then we'd all have the same map.

Actually I did this just for fun. Here are the results:

D+48: DC
D+26: Hawaii
D+23: Vermont
D+20: California
D+18: Maryland
D+11: Washington
D+10: Massachusetts, New York, Oregon
D+9: Illinois
D+7: Colorado, Delaware, New Jersey, Virginia
D+6: New Mexico
D+5: Connecticut, Nevada, Rhode Island
D+1: Maine, North Carolina
EVEN: Michigan, New Hampshire
R+1: Alaska, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin
R+3: Florida
R+4: Georgia, Ohio
R+6: Arizona, Iowa
R+7: Texas
R+8: South Carolina
R+10: Indiana, Mississippi
R+12: Montana
R+13: Kansas, Nebraska
R+16: Missouri
R+19: South Dakota
R+20: Alabama, Idaho
R+21: Louisiana, Utah
R+22: North Dakota
R+24: Kentucky
R+25: Tennessee
R+30: Oklahoma
R+31: Arkansas
R+33: Wyoming
R+38: West Virginia

Overall not entirely implausible.

[Ye We Can]

Something not foreseen by current trends.

[DPKdebator]

[Kamala]

MT, KS, SC, and AK will all be more D-leaning that they are now.

[Canis]

[Skill and Chance]

This feels right, but I do think Texas and Illinois will move faster.  They could both be tossup states by 2032.  Alaska should shift left pretty fast and might only be in the lightest R shade by then.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

That's not how trends work. At all. 2032 won't be every single ing trend in 2016 extrapolated out. Take 1944. The trends there were fairly small. And if we projected it out to 1960, we'd get this map

. (Those are margins)
In reality, it was this.

That's not even close.
The simple method would project 15 states as Solid R. 7 of them were.
It projected 18 states as Solid D. 6 of them were.
Taking every momentary trend and pretending it is a harbringer of the future is idiotic.
Hell, of the 33 "solid states", 9 of them voted for the wrong party.

[Canis]

 I think that the rust belt will be gone for the dems then and the same for the sun belt for the reps

[jamestroll]

I do not wish to make long term projects. I remember in 2008 when people said said Illinois would trend heavily gop in the future after Obama.

My generally impression is that 2016 gave clues for the future but ultimately demographics help but do  not dictate. Some things are obvious like Arizona and Georgia may become Democratic leaning and the upper Midwest will not be a BLOO WALL. It is worth noting that whites in the upper Midwest are not near as conservative as Southern Whites so it could end up being a saving grace for Senate Democrats in the future.

New Hampshire (R+3-4): whites drift

Like I said, demographics do not dictate. All signs show New Hampshire will be as politically left wing as Vermont! The trends are clear!