Future Realignment Possibilities?

[Orser67]

[Dr. MB]

[Xing]

In all seriousness, I don't see a true realignment happening in the next 20 years. I think we'll just see some things slowly shift. I definitely don't buy the whole WA/OR trending R while MS/AL trend D obsession, because we're not seeing the same kind of racial polarization in every part of the country, and in some parts of the country, it's really rural/urban polarization, which is why WA/OR are trending Democratic, not Republican. It's not the case that WA/OR are only Democratic because of "the culture wars." The political leanings or both states are more complex than that, and Republicans moving slightly left on social issues (which I see no sign of happening) won't magically make these states more competitive.

This is what the map could look like around 2032, IMO, though I could be totally wrong.

[Skill and Chance]

In all seriousness, I don't see a true realignment happening in the next 20 years. I think we'll just see some things slowly shift. I definitely don't buy the whole WA/OR trending R while MS/AL trend D obsession, because we're not seeing the same kind of racial polarization in every part of the country, and in some parts of the country, it's really rural/urban polarization, which is why WA/OR are trending Democratic, not Republican. It's not the case that WA/OR are only Democratic because of "the culture wars." The political leanings or both states are more complex than that, and Republicans moving slightly left on social issues (which I see no sign of happening) won't magically make these states more competitive.

This is what the map could look like around 2032, IMO, though I could be totally wrong.

For the West Coast, I agree with this, but the Northeast and socially liberal parts of the Midwest will shift hard if e.g. abortion ever becomes a state issue and the state GOP doesn't run on banning it.