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Author Topic: Future Realignment Possibilities?  (Read 4127 times)
Fmr. Acting Southern Del. The Saint
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« Reply #100 on: August 28, 2017, 08:38:54 am »
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Why did IL go Dem?  Were there enough "ancestral" Chicago Democrats turning out?


Yeah basically, plus the Democrats will still be the "urban" party. Chicago's not going to shrink that much in population, would it?

Honestly, a more interesting question would be why Michigan goes Dem (since Detroit is smaller and declining faster than Chicago). It's Dem on this map due to circumstances specific to my timeline; in general, it's likely that it would behave more like its GOP-leaning neighbors.
I don't think Chicago will shrink *that* much either.  However, if the GOP is becoming a more secular, global-minded, and fiscally conservative party, the people living in the Cook, DuPage, Lake, etc. suburbs, should be returning home to the GOP in enough numbers to give Illinois to the GOP.


The past 8 months of Trump's presidency have shattered any façade that Trumpism  actually is a socially moderate, global-minded fiscal conservative.
"Trumpism" will be gone once Trump is.

that the GOP will become this global-minded fiscally conservative party strikes me as bizarre. Nothing about them really even suggests they're that fiscally conservative aside from railing against spending when a Democrat is in office and then proceeding to do sh!t about it once they can. And I don't see why they'd become increasingly secular when the religious nuts still have huge sway in the party's nominations. They're only going to get more reactionary and desperate to maintain their grip on the party as the country shifts away from them
k

I know you like to ignore it, but that's literally all the GOP does when it comes to "fiscal conservatism." Typically it's 1.) cut taxes like we're still in the good ole 1980's, 2.) see a budget shortfall, 3.) blame said shortfall on inner city welfare queens, blacks and Mexicans not paying their taxes, and Democrats' spending problems (which, sure, can get excessive)
No you're right on the fiscal conservatism thing; the party has failed (but to say the party scapegoats minorities is just ridiculous). Everything else is pretty much wrong.  The party will reform or it will die.
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Technocracy Timmy
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« Reply #101 on: August 28, 2017, 06:21:12 pm »
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Update:



Circa 2040
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« Reply #102 on: August 28, 2017, 07:03:58 pm »
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Florida should be gray as it will replace Ohio as the "Missouri bellwether" state by then.
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« Reply #103 on: August 28, 2017, 07:06:32 pm »
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Florida should be gray as it will replace Ohio as the "Missouri bellwether" state by then.

I suspect climate change will ultimately cause it to turn lean Dem. I think Texas and Illinois will be the bellwether states by this time.

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Fmr. Acting Southern Del. The Saint
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« Reply #104 on: August 28, 2017, 07:18:24 pm »
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Florida should be gray as it will replace Ohio as the "Missouri bellwether" state by then.

I suspect climate change will ultimately cause it to turn lean Dem. I think Texas and Illinois will be the bellwether states by this time.


The GOP will more likely than not have turned around on climate change by then.  It's not going to matter that many didn't believe it in the past.
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Technocracy Timmy
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« Reply #105 on: August 28, 2017, 07:21:56 pm »
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Florida should be gray as it will replace Ohio as the "Missouri bellwether" state by then.

I suspect climate change will ultimately cause it to turn lean Dem. I think Texas and Illinois will be the bellwether states by this time.


The GOP will more likely than not have turned around on climate change by then.  It's not going to matter that many didn't believe it in the past.

By then yeah. I think there'll then enough of the youth today in Florida voting in the 2030's-2040 to keep it slightly Democratic. It's a state that has a fairly low income (even when adjusted for COLA) and is minority heavy. I do think counter trends of retiring Xers will keep it competitive for the GOP (which is also why I have Arizona being only lean Dem as well).

Plus I suspect the Electoral Map will be lean D anyways.
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« Reply #106 on: August 28, 2017, 07:34:09 pm »
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Florida should be gray as it will replace Ohio as the "Missouri bellwether" state by then.

I suspect climate change will ultimately cause it to turn lean Dem. I think Texas and Illinois will be the bellwether states by this time.


The GOP will more likely than not have turned around on climate change by then.  It's not going to matter that many didn't believe it in the past.

By then yeah. I think there'll then enough of the youth today in Florida voting in the 2030's-2040 to keep it slightly Democratic. It's a state that has a fairly low income (even when adjusted for COLA) and is minority heavy. I do think counter trends of retiring Xers will keep it competitive for the GOP (which is also why I have Arizona being only lean Dem as well).

Plus I suspect the Electoral Map will be lean D anyways.
It really all comes down to how the GOP shifts. Much better minority outreach will help nationwide, and if Gen Zers end up being libertarian-leaning and Republican-leading, then the party will still remain competitive.
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« Reply #107 on: August 28, 2017, 10:31:31 pm »
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Why did IL go Dem?  Were there enough "ancestral" Chicago Democrats turning out?


Yeah basically, plus the Democrats will still be the "urban" party. Chicago's not going to shrink that much in population, would it?

Honestly, a more interesting question would be why Michigan goes Dem (since Detroit is smaller and declining faster than Chicago). It's Dem on this map due to circumstances specific to my timeline; in general, it's likely that it would behave more like its GOP-leaning neighbors.
I don't think Chicago will shrink *that* much either.  However, if the GOP is becoming a more secular, global-minded, and fiscally conservative party, the people living in the Cook, DuPage, Lake, etc. suburbs, should be returning home to the GOP in enough numbers to give Illinois to the GOP.


The past 8 months of Trump's presidency have shattered any façade that Trumpism  actually is a socially moderate, global-minded fiscal conservative.
My post was in response to NJ's characterization of IL in the 2030s on his/her "Sun and Moon" political fanfic.
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Region Rat.  Yes, Indiana, we're Hoosiers too!

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« Reply #108 on: August 28, 2017, 11:08:04 pm »
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I think Clark County will eventually run out of water, and the resulting death of Las Vegas will move Nevada back to Solid R and minimum electoral votes.
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« Reply #109 on: August 29, 2017, 08:39:47 am »
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Why did IL go Dem?  Were there enough "ancestral" Chicago Democrats turning out?


Yeah basically, plus the Democrats will still be the "urban" party. Chicago's not going to shrink that much in population, would it?

Honestly, a more interesting question would be why Michigan goes Dem (since Detroit is smaller and declining faster than Chicago). It's Dem on this map due to circumstances specific to my timeline; in general, it's likely that it would behave more like its GOP-leaning neighbors.
I don't think Chicago will shrink *that* much either.  However, if the GOP is becoming a more secular, global-minded, and fiscally conservative party, the people living in the Cook, DuPage, Lake, etc. suburbs, should be returning home to the GOP in enough numbers to give Illinois to the GOP.


The past 8 months of Trump's presidency have shattered any façade that Trumpism  actually is a socially moderate, global-minded fiscal conservative.
My post was in response to NJ's characterization of IL in the 2030s on his/her "Sun and Moon" political fanfic.


Yeah, since the GOP becoming more socially liberal and way less Trumpist is a big part of that timeline. If the GOP doesn't do that (which has a nonzero chance of happening), and instead remains a reactionary socon party, then expect Illinois to be Safe D (rather than Lean D or Tossup).
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Technocracy Timmy
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« Reply #110 on: August 29, 2017, 04:34:13 pm »
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Florida should be gray as it will replace Ohio as the "Missouri bellwether" state by then.

I suspect climate change will ultimately cause it to turn lean Dem. I think Texas and Illinois will be the bellwether states by this time.


The GOP will more likely than not have turned around on climate change by then.  It's not going to matter that many didn't believe it in the past.

By then yeah. I think there'll then enough of the youth today in Florida voting in the 2030's-2040 to keep it slightly Democratic. It's a state that has a fairly low income (even when adjusted for COLA) and is minority heavy. I do think counter trends of retiring Xers will keep it competitive for the GOP (which is also why I have Arizona being only lean Dem as well).

Plus I suspect the Electoral Map will be lean D anyways.
It really all comes down to how the GOP shifts. Much better minority outreach will help nationwide, and if Gen Zers end up being libertarian-leaning and Republican-leading, then the party will still remain competitive.

Looking at demographic data, a winning GOP coalition in 2036-2040 would probably look something like this:

Whites: 63-67%
Asians: 50-54%
Hispanics: 42-46%
Blacks: 14-18%
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« Reply #111 on: August 29, 2017, 06:03:26 pm »
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Florida should be gray as it will replace Ohio as the "Missouri bellwether" state by then.

I suspect climate change will ultimately cause it to turn lean Dem. I think Texas and Illinois will be the bellwether states by this time.


The GOP will more likely than not have turned around on climate change by then.  It's not going to matter that many didn't believe it in the past.

By then yeah. I think there'll then enough of the youth today in Florida voting in the 2030's-2040 to keep it slightly Democratic. It's a state that has a fairly low income (even when adjusted for COLA) and is minority heavy. I do think counter trends of retiring Xers will keep it competitive for the GOP (which is also why I have Arizona being only lean Dem as well).

Plus I suspect the Electoral Map will be lean D anyways.
It really all comes down to how the GOP shifts. Much better minority outreach will help nationwide, and if Gen Zers end up being libertarian-leaning and Republican-leading, then the party will still remain competitive.

Looking at demographic data, a winning GOP coalition in 2036-2040 would probably look something like this:

Whites: 63-67%
Asians: 50-54%
Hispanics: 42-46%
Blacks: 14-18%
Thanks for the numbers Smiley

It's certainly possible, it just depends on whether the party wants to put in the effort or not
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« Reply #112 on: August 31, 2017, 04:54:46 pm »
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We are a clash of Mississippian minorities
Arkansas is 72.9% white, well above the national average, and is therefore considered to be one of the whitest Southern states.

upper middle class people
You mean how Arkansas has consistently ranked in the bottom 10 states in terms of GDP per capita for the past decade?

Deep South/Western/Midwestern/Northern culture.
I don't understand your implication here.

I'm not going to try to pretend to know more about your state than you do, but based off of statistical evidence, it seems that you have to try again at your argument.

Also, it's quite hilarious to see you refer to the affection for populism as a vulnerability.

... If you really can't understand relativity of GDP and income, then I don't know what you expect me to say. We have the lowest unemployment rate for fifty years - the amount of time it's been tracked.
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« Reply #113 on: September 13, 2017, 08:03:56 am »
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This map is mainly based off of information from the following:

https://public.tableau.com/profile/mycollegeoptions#!/vizhome/PresidentialPolling-Fall2016/PresidentialPolling2016

https://www.surveymonkey.com/elections/map/2016/us?poll=sm-exit-millennials-cps

The first site features a 50-state poll of over 80,000 14-18-year-olds.  The second site features how voters aged 18-34 voted in 2016.
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« Reply #114 on: September 13, 2017, 01:19:12 pm »
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This map is mainly based off of information from the following:

https://public.tableau.com/profile/mycollegeoptions#!/vizhome/PresidentialPolling-Fall2016/PresidentialPolling2016

https://www.surveymonkey.com/elections/map/2016/us?poll=sm-exit-millennials-cps

The first site features a 50-state poll of over 80,000 14-18-year-olds.  The second site features how voters aged 18-34 voted in 2016.

That second map is one Survey Monkey poll.  Trump won the 18-29 vote in 21 states, not 4!
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The conservative movement is being damaged massively by Donald Trump.  Other than Neil Gorsuch, we have failed to have any meaningful accomplishments that were not potentially temporary executive orders.  That, combined with the off year election results tell me that I'M READY FOR PENCE
Fmr. Acting Southern Del. The Saint
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« Reply #115 on: September 13, 2017, 01:31:05 pm »
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This map is mainly based off of information from the following:

https://public.tableau.com/profile/mycollegeoptions#!/vizhome/PresidentialPolling-Fall2016/PresidentialPolling2016

https://www.surveymonkey.com/elections/map/2016/us?poll=sm-exit-millennials-cps

The first site features a 50-state poll of over 80,000 14-18-year-olds.  The second site features how voters aged 18-34 voted in 2016.

That second map is one Survey Monkey poll.  Trump won the 18-29 vote in 21 states, not 4!

Ah ok. Thanks. Where did you get that info?
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« Reply #116 on: September 13, 2017, 01:47:23 pm »
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This map is mainly based off of information from the following:

https://public.tableau.com/profile/mycollegeoptions#!/vizhome/PresidentialPolling-Fall2016/PresidentialPolling2016

https://www.surveymonkey.com/elections/map/2016/us?poll=sm-exit-millennials-cps

The first site features a 50-state poll of over 80,000 14-18-year-olds.  The second site features how voters aged 18-34 voted in 2016.

That second map is one Survey Monkey poll.  Trump won the 18-29 vote in 21 states, not 4!

Ah ok. Thanks. Where did you get that info?

Exit polls (now, we don't have all of the Safe R/D states, but we can be reasonably confident in those, especially if similar less R/D states voted as expected.

https://i1.wp.com/amptoons.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/18-29-vote-exit-polls-2016.png

Here is just 18-24: https://i2.wp.com/amptoons.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/18-24-vote-exit-polls-2016.png (Note Minnesota!)
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Far-right social, fiscal, and neo-conservative.  Centrist on immigration.  Abortion is murder!

The conservative movement is being damaged massively by Donald Trump.  Other than Neil Gorsuch, we have failed to have any meaningful accomplishments that were not potentially temporary executive orders.  That, combined with the off year election results tell me that I'M READY FOR PENCE
Fmr. Acting Southern Del. The Saint
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« Reply #117 on: September 13, 2017, 01:55:57 pm »
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This map is mainly based off of information from the following:

https://public.tableau.com/profile/mycollegeoptions#!/vizhome/PresidentialPolling-Fall2016/PresidentialPolling2016

https://www.surveymonkey.com/elections/map/2016/us?poll=sm-exit-millennials-cps

The first site features a 50-state poll of over 80,000 14-18-year-olds.  The second site features how voters aged 18-34 voted in 2016.

That second map is one Survey Monkey poll.  Trump won the 18-29 vote in 21 states, not 4!

Ah ok. Thanks. Where did you get that info?

Exit polls (now, we don't have all of the Safe R/D states, but we can be reasonably confident in those, especially if similar less R/D states voted as expected.

https://i1.wp.com/amptoons.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/18-29-vote-exit-polls-2016.png

Here is just 18-24: https://i2.wp.com/amptoons.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/18-24-vote-exit-polls-2016.png (Note Minnesota!)

Thank you! I'll probably readjust the map then
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« Reply #118 on: September 13, 2017, 05:09:03 pm »
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« Reply #119 on: October 06, 2017, 05:35:55 pm »
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AL-Gov: Walter Maddox (D)
CA-Gov: John Cox (R)
FL-Gov: John Morgan (D)
MD-Gov: Ben Jealous (D)/Larry Hogan (R)
NJ-Gov: Seth Kaper-Dale (G)
OK-Gov: Gary Richardson (R)
OR-Gov: Kate Brown (D)

AL-Sen: Doug Jones (D)
CA-Sen: David Hildebrand (D)
ME-Sen: Angus King (I)
NV-Sen: Jesse Sbaih (D)
OH-Sen: Sherrod Brown (D)
TX-Sen: Beto O'Rourke (D)
VT-Sen: Bernie Sanders (I)

WI-01: Randy Bryce (D)
UT-03: Jim Bennett (UU)

POTUS: Tulsi Gabbard (D)
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« Reply #120 on: October 07, 2017, 04:29:33 pm »
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In all seriousness, I don't see a true realignment happening in the next 20 years. I think we'll just see some things slowly shift. I definitely don't buy the whole WA/OR trending R while MS/AL trend D obsession, because we're not seeing the same kind of racial polarization in every part of the country, and in some parts of the country, it's really rural/urban polarization, which is why WA/OR are trending Democratic, not Republican. It's not the case that WA/OR are only Democratic because of "the culture wars." The political leanings or both states are more complex than that, and Republicans moving slightly left on social issues (which I see no sign of happening) won't magically make these states more competitive.



This is what the map could look like around 2032, IMO, though I could be totally wrong.
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« Reply #121 on: October 08, 2017, 04:24:35 pm »
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In all seriousness, I don't see a true realignment happening in the next 20 years. I think we'll just see some things slowly shift. I definitely don't buy the whole WA/OR trending R while MS/AL trend D obsession, because we're not seeing the same kind of racial polarization in every part of the country, and in some parts of the country, it's really rural/urban polarization, which is why WA/OR are trending Democratic, not Republican. It's not the case that WA/OR are only Democratic because of "the culture wars." The political leanings or both states are more complex than that, and Republicans moving slightly left on social issues (which I see no sign of happening) won't magically make these states more competitive.



This is what the map could look like around 2032, IMO, though I could be totally wrong.

For the West Coast, I agree with this, but the Northeast and socially liberal parts of the Midwest will shift hard if e.g. abortion ever becomes a state issue and the state GOP doesn't run on banning it.
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