Well-behaved women... : a 2020 TL

[MAINEiac4434]

(Quietly roots for Andrew Cuomo)

https://youtu.be/lUXHB5U-Vl4

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

(Quietly roots for Andrew Cuomo)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AFCxHmtHTGU

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

(Quietly roots for Andrew Cuomo)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AFCxHmtHTGU

[BuckeyeNut]

(Quietly roots for Andrew Cuomo)

[Kamala]

Melania
December 24th, 2017

Christmas Eve was finally here, and Melania and her family were still in the White House.

Hvala bogu.

But, of course, not all was well in the Trump family. Her husband had gained close to twenty pounds since his inauguration, sitting at 20% approvals, and without a single legislative accomplishment to date. Her stepson, Eric, was arrested for public urination in New York during a drunken bender on Halloween. Her other stepson, Don Jr., was under fire for soliciting prostitutes in Palm Beach. Her stepdaughter, Ivanka, was unhappy at her job in the White House, constantly bullied by Steves Bannon and Miller. Her son, Barron, was miserable in the White House and longed to go back to New York.

Her only friend was Donald's Chief of Staff, Omarosa. She was the only other woman to be constantly tormented by Trump, and so they became friends.

Melania worried that her husband's house of cards will come tumbling down once Robert Mueller finished his investigation.

Mueller must be an idiot if he hasn't already compiled a huge case.

Some days, Melania thinks of running away with her son back to Slovenia, just to get away from all this mess. Divorce wasn't an option, but this was the second best path forward.


Trump Approval Rating
Approve - 20%
Disapprove - 75%

Generic Congressional Ballot (average)
Generic Democrat - 56%
Generic Republican - 40%

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

How to every update manage to be so great......I love this TL, Kamala!

[Kamala]

Once 2018 is closer in-timeline, I'm thinking of doing that forum thing that Maineiac does in his TL. Thoughts?

[_]

Once 2018 is closer in-timeline, I'm thinking of doing that forum thing that Maineiac does in his TL. Thoughts?

Yes that'd be nice.

(I'd be completely Anti-Trump by now here.)

[TheSaint250]

Once 2018 is closer in-timeline, I'm thinking of doing that forum thing that Maineiac does in his TL. Thoughts?

Yes that'd be nice.

(I'd be completely Anti-Trump by now here.)

[Kamala]

Who the Hell is Running? Governors Ball Edition
December 30th, 2017
(an episode from a podcast by some fictional people)

CONSTANCE JUSTICE: Welcome, everyone, to a special end-of-the-year episode of The People's Political Podcast. Today we'll be talking about who is currently and rumored to run in the 2018 elections. Today's episode will be about gubernatorial races; there are 36 to be held in the new year. Tomorrow we'll talk about congressional elections.

LEON LEMLER: Good morning!

B. B. duSCOMBE: Good morning Leon.

CJ: Let's jump right in! Do we want to go alphabetically or geographically?

JASON TARTENBERG: Who cares, Constance?

BBdS: I do, Jason. Don't be such an ass.

CJ: Calm down, everyone. Let's just pick at random... Leon, want to do the honors?

LL: Sure. Let's do Maryland. Governor Larry Hogan is up for reelection. He's fairly popular for a Republican in a deep blue state.

JT: The last Morning Consult poll had him at 58% approval. Definitely positive reception among Marylanders.

CJ: Well, B.B., you're from Maryland, right? What's it like there right now?

BBdS: It's definitely going to be competitive–

JT: Well, duh...

BBdS: Jason, I swear, if you interrupt me again.

Anyway, both the Democratic primary and the general will be competitive. There's like 3 heavy hitters already running to become the nominee. PG County executive Rushern Baker, former NAACP president Ben Jealous, and Baltimore County executive Kevin Kamenetz.

But there's also the potential for a dark horse in the race - Elijah Cummings's wife, Maya Rockeymoore. She's hasn't declared yet, but she's formed an exploratory committee, and if she jumps in, she could quickly become a powerhouse. Cummings basically runs MD machine politics and is super respected, and has a ton of fundraising connections. If she runs, I'd place my bets on her. If she doesn't, I think Baker has the best shot.

LL: What about John Delaney, the Congressman who's already running for President?

BBdS: No shot. He's basically burned all his bridges in the state. And he's an idiot, frankly.

CJ: Overall, what are your bets on who'll become governor in November?

BBdS: I'd say it's 50/50.

LL: 60/40, in favor of Hogan. He's pretty popular, and is well-known for being anti-Trump.

JT: Somehow, I agree with B.B.

BBdS: Ass.
 
CJ: I'll give the benefit of the doubt to Hogan, but ever so slightly. 55/45.

Let's move north a bit. Pennsylvania, anyone? Tom Wolf's running for reelection, and 2016 has to be encouraging for him. Both Bernie and McGinty won their respective races. Republicans haven't won a major state wide race since the 2010 wave.

JT: Notable Trumpist and State Senator Scott Wagner is the only real non-some-guy candidate. I'd say he wins the primary and loses the general, badly.

CJ: Anyone willing to guess the margin?

BBdS: Wolf will break 60%.

JT: Ludicrous as usual, B.B. I'd say he does about as well as he did in 2014. So 55%, about.

BBdS: Ass.

LL: I'm gonna say that Wagner actually cleans up his act decently, but not enough to win. So maybe like a 52-48 Wolf win.

CJ: North even a little more? New York State? Hillary Clinton is all but running.

BBdS: And Cuomo must be sweating like a whore in church. Those poll numbers are not good. An incumbent governor should not be losing his primary by more than 20 points.

LL: Well, to be fair, this is HILLARY CLINTON we're talking about. She's practically Jesus in the state. Especially with de Blasio seeming keen to endorse her the moment she announces.

JT: Yeah, like a Jesus who lost the Democratic primary to Sanders. Color me skeptical.

BBdS: Christ, Jason. Shut up. She still won New York in the primary.

LL: If I were a betting man, I'd go all in on Hillary. This is her swan song.

BBdS: Agreed.

CJ: How about on the Republican side?

JT: MICHAEL GRIMM!!!!

CJ: Really scraping the bottom of the barrel, huh?

BBdS: I'm surprised that a party which controls the State Senate can't find a halfway decent candidate, who, you know, hasn't been in prison recently, to run.

LL: It makes sense, though. Regardless of the Democratic primary, both Democrats are juggernauts in a state that is incredibly safe for Democrats. No one wants to ruin their career.

JT: Which is why I'm saying MICHAEL GRIMMMMMM!!!!

BBdS: *sighs*

CJ: I'm gonna predict Clinton beats Spitzer's 2006 performance. She's well-loved in New York, sharing the ticket with Gillibrand, and her likely opponent was literally in federal prison last year.

JT: Grimm will do way better than you predict. He's still liked on Trump- I mean, Staten Island, and that's a fantastic base from which to jump. He'll win the non-NYC Long Island counties, and I mean, c'mon, Hillary isn't going to do well upstate. No one likes her.

BBdS: Grimm is an actual criminal. A literal criminal. He's not going to Albany anytime soon, unless he's being indicted for some other crime he likely committed.

LL: Yeah, Clinton has this in the bag. Cuomo isn't popular in NYC so winning the primary is basically insurmountable.

CJ: Let's move to Connecticut now. Unpopular Democratic governor Malloy is retiring instead of running again, which is probably for the best for the Connecticut Democratic Party. In the Democratic primary, Middletown mayor Dan Drew, Bridgeport mayor Joe Ganim, and Edward Kennedy Jr. are running.

BBdS: What's a Kennedy doing in Connecticut?

JT: He's a state senator there, genius.

BBdS: Ass.

CJ: Who's got the best chance to become the nominee? I'd say Drew. He's got the resources, and he's announced earliest, and had the most time to develop a statewide profile.

LL: My mom lives in Connecticut and she's told me she's voting for Kennedy. That name still carries some heft with the 65+s up there.

JT: Shame. Politicians should be elected on their merit, not their names.

BBdS: This "merit" argument is really rich coming from someone who supports Michael Grimm of all people.

CJ: Anyway, on the Republican side, we're seeing some new faces and some familiar ones.

Tom C. Foley's thinking third time's the charm. David M. Walker, the former Comptroller General of the US, is also running. Trumbull councilman Tim Herbst entered a while ago, among other candidates. New Britain mayor Erin Stewart, who's only 30, entered last week and could throw a wrench into the works. She might be a bit moderate for the party, though.

JT: Holy sh[inks], 30? Is she single?

BBdS: Ass. I think she's actually got a decent shot. Maybe like 30%, of winning the nomination.

LL: Right now, I'd say the race overall tilts to the Democrats. None of the Republicans are particularly exciting, and if Foley wins again, I'll say it's Likely D.

CJ: Really? I'm gonna go for a longshot and say that Stewart will be governor-elect by this time next year.

JT: First Gentleman of Connecticut is not a bad title. Is she single?

CJ: Okay, Jason. I know this is the Nutmeg State but that doesn't mean you need to snort some before discussing it. Let's go to Rhode Island now. Democrat Gina Raimondo is seeking reelection, and the only one to declare on the GOP side so far is her 2014 opponent, Alan Fung. House Minority Leader Patricia Morgan started a campaign only to terminate it a month later.

JT: I think you're forgetting someone, Connie.

CJ: Hmm?

JT: Chafee is running against Raimondo in the primary.

BBdS: Right, but he's got no shot. She scared him out of running in 2014.

LL: If I may - I think that Chafee could win if he gets Sanders's endorsement. But a former Republican getting that endorsement? I don't see it.

JT: It seems as if he's ready to run to the left of Raimondo.

CJ: We'll see if he does. Any thoughts about the general?

BBdS: Fung won't win. Probably will win around the same amount of the two-party vote he did in 2014 on a good night. Probably will do worse.

JT: Chafee will crush Fung. Probably close to a 70-30 victory.

CJ: I think both of you are correct. Raimondo isn't the most popular, but she's decently popular with the primary electorate.

LL: Okay, the big one: Massachusetts.

CJ: Yeah. Last year we'd think that Charming Charlie is Titanium Safe. Not so much the story anymore.

BBdS: He would've crushed Setti Warren, but he withdrew. Maura Healey just cleared the field, and the election is in eleven months.

JT: I have to concede, Healey is a huuuuuuuuge get for the MA Dems.

LL: This race was Safe R the night before she announced, and a Tossup once she did.

CJ: I'd even say it's Tilt D now.

JT: With Liz Warren on the ballot, Baker has to be unhappy.

BBdS: He really bungled up the marijuana legalization. The General Court has kept a decent check on him, but his executive powers have been used incorrectly. People are not as happy as they were for the first 3 years of his term.

CJ: And I don't think having Trump at record-low approvals is helping him either. He's a NeverTrumper, but people are angry in Massachusetts.

LL: They're looking for change.

CJ: Exactly.

BBdS: This will be a race to watch.

JT: Unlike Vermont. Bouricius is a lock for reelection.

CJ: I don't think any Republican has filed to run yet.

LL: I mean, the Republican bench in Vermont was basically Phil Scott, and he lost.

BBdS: Doesn't help that Bouricius is also really popular.

CJ: He's got the Bernie Boy Magic. Sharing the ballot with him basically means that Republican chances are gone.

BBdS: The VT Republicans are in danger of extinction. Their bread is buttered.

LL: But New Hampshire could get interesting.

JT: Another Shaheen vs Sununu matchup. Is Stefany single?

BBdS: No, you ass.

We'll return after a break from our sponsors (character limit)

[The Other Castro]

Lol it's like the fivethirtyeight staff all became alcoholics.

[MAINEiac4434]

JT is on crack.

[kyc0705]

Has Constance Justice met the Rural Juror yet?

[BuckeyeNut]

Another great update, as always. Interesting to see the format changed up -- I like it! (Though I cannot imagine who would actually sponsor that show. lol)

Can you elaborate on what you mean by "the forum thing Maineiac does"?

[Lord Admirale]

Once 2018 is closer in-timeline, I'm thinking of doing that forum thing that Maineiac does in his TL. Thoughts?

Definitely. #Booker4Prez

[Kamala]

Back from our break!

CONSTANCE JUSTICE: Yeah, I think she has like 3 kids, Jason.

JASON TARTENBERG: That's no obstacle.

B. B. duSCOMBE: Ass.

LEON LEMLER: Anyway... back on the subject of the election. Chris Sununu's been a lackluster governor.

JT: Yeah, the opioid situation in New Hampshire is still pretty bad. And then appearing with Trump... The ads write themselves.

BBdS: "Drug-filled den" is a not a good look.

LL: Stefany's probably the strongest candidate the NH Dems have. Good for them for recruiting her.

CJ: I actually heard she started planning her campaign the day after Election Day 2016.

JT: I wouldn't actually write off Sununu this quickly. Remember, Van Osten was leading him in the polls leading up to Election Day, but Sununu pulled through. Same thing could happen in 2018, with Republicans not coming home until the very end.

BBdS: Tilt D.

CJ: Okay, last one in New England: Maine. The race to replace Paul LePage.

LL: For the past several elections there's been some independents running. In the past 35 years, the only time a governor was elected with a majority of the vote was Angus King in 1998.

BBdS: This cycle's independent is State Treasurer Terry Hayes. I don't think she'll make as much of an impact this time. Both parties' supporters have shown signs of learning in 2014 that independents are just spoilers.

JT: Plus she's boring as hell.

CJ: Anyway, the Democratic field is pretty strong:

Attorney General Janet Mills is favored to win the nomination, but she may face a challenge from several candidates.

BBdS: Leftist firebrand Betsy Sweet is smart as hell and exciting.

LL: Also former Governor John Baldacci is running.

JT: Yawn.

CJ: Also former House Speaker Mark Eves is running.

LL: I'd say Mills will most likely win. She's got a strong base of support.

BBdS: If Sweet can win over the Berniecrat crowd, she's got a good shot of winning a plurality. He did win the primary there in 2016.

JT: Republicans have a similarly decent crowd: Paulette LePa– Mary Mayhew, Senate Majority Leader Garrett Mason, House Minority leader Ken Fredette - any of them I can see winning.

BBdS: Surprisingly rational take from Jason.

CJ: I agree. Polling has been scattered and unreliable. I'll say this is a nail biter till the nomination.

LL: Though I think whoever is nominated, they'll lose to the Democrat. Paul LePage has pissed Mainers off.

CJ: I guess. I think Baldacci is the weakest of the Democrats. Anyway, let's move on to Illinois. It's the most competitive non-open seat this cycle.

JT: My boy Bruce. He'll crush his opponents. The Democrats are super weak this cycle.

LL: Yeah, the front runners aren't looking too hot right now. Pritzker and Kennedy are both already showing weakness. Biss and Pawar are splitting the far-left's vote.

BBdS: I heard Michelle Obama is making an announcement in Chicago on New Year's Day.

JT: I doubt she'd run. She's said how much she hates politics before. Plus she's probably scared of Bruce.

BBdS: Ass.

CJ: I mean, if she does run, she's cutting it very close. The primary is in three months.
 
LL: If she does enter, she'd be the instant frontrunner. People LOVE Michelle, and she'd have no problem winning.

JT: People don't like First Ladies sticking their noses where they don't belong.

BBdS: Which is why Hillary is leading Cuomo in New York, right?

CJ: I think Michelle would turn the race on its head. Rauner'll be in some major trouble.

JT: Bullsh[inks].

LL: I'm afraid Connie is right, Jason.

BBdS: Okay, how about Michigan? Snyder is term-limited, and Attorney General Schuette is a lock for the Republican nomination.

CJ: And Gretchen Whitmer is basically a lock for the Democratic nomination. She's worked out a deal with her sole legitimate primary opponent, Abdul Al-Sayed, to be her running mate.

JT: Is Gretchen single?

BBdS: Ass.

LL: I think this is probably a Lean D race. Bernie won Michigan convincingly last year, and I don't see voters electing another Republican after Snyder's disastrous handling of Flint.

CJ: I agree. Schuette can win, but unless there's a major political landscape change, I don't see him actually pulling it off.

JT: Ohio. Big old swing state. Democrats must be sad Cordray isn't running.

BBdS: Yeah, their slate of candidates isn't the best. Schiavoni, Sutton, Pillich, Whaley: who's the strongest?

CJ: I'm gonna go with Sutton.

JT: Schiavoni.

LL: Pillich. Bernie deserves redemption.

BBdS: I was thinking Whaley was their best shot.

CJ: Interesting. Wanna make a bet?

JT: B.B., if Schiavoni does better than Whaley, you let me take you out to dinner.

BBdS: Ha! Good luck.

JT: You can choose the restaurant.

BBdS: What a gentleman.

LL: How about everyone places $20 into the pool, whoever's candidate wins gets the cash.

CJ, JT, BBdS: [in unison] Deal.

CJ: It's similarly competitive on the Republican side. DeWine, Renacci, Taylor, and Husted. I think Husted's the strongest candidate overall, on both sides.

LL: I agree, though I think DeWine has more establishment support. I think he pulls through, despite Husted being stronger in the general.

JT: Renacci is the only candidate I'd support.

BBdS: Ha. I think Husted will win the primary and the general, both by convincing margins.

CJ: After the break, we'll resume with Wisconsin.

JT: Scott Walkerstan.

[cut to commercial]

[BuckeyeNut]

Hopefully, the invisible hand of feminism leads Whaley to a win.

[Kamala]

Hopefully, the invisible hand of feminism leads Whaley to a win.

We are all praying for B.B.

[Anti-Bothsidesism]

If you put me in I would be predicting what candidate would win the democratic nod.

[Kamala]

Back from our break!

B. B. duSCOMBE: Will the Democrats finally defeat Scott Walker? I'm gonna say... yes.

JASON TARTENBERG: Bullsh[inks]!

BBdS: Ass.

CONSTANCE JUSTICE: They do seem to have attracted decently strong candidates. Tony Evers and Kathleen Vinehout have both won in areas Democrats have struggled with.

LEON LEMLER: Definitely. They're moving on from the Barretts and Burkes. Don't forget there's also Dana Wachs and Andy Gronik running.

BBdS: I'm gonna put my money on Vinehout. She was gonna run in 2014, and probably would've beaten Walker had she not gotten in that car accident.

JT: Yeah, who the hell was Mary Burke anyway?

CJ: No one knows.

LL: I'm gonna say Evers is the stronger candidate. He's actually won statewide.

BBdS: But all of his elections were nonpartisan. I doubt his popularity in previous elections translates to gubernatorial success.

JT: I don't think it really matters, because Walker is going to be governor of Wisconsin till the day he dies. The seat is his for as long as he wants it.

CJ: I'm not so sure about that.

JT: Fight me.

CJ: You will lose.

LL: Anyway... Minnesota, anyone? Dayton is retiring, and the Democrats have a strong bench. For the Democrats,  Congressman Tim Walz is running, as is Rebecca Otto, the State Auditor, Mayor of Saint Paul Chris Coleman, some state representatives, and Attorney General Lori Swanson.

BBdS: I think that the real showdown is between Swanson and Walz. It's a battle between outstate and the Twin Cities. Right now, it's anyone's game.

JT: I think Walz is just more popular and likable than Swanson.

LL: But he's also pretty boring.

CJ: Swanson's done a great job as AG.

BBdS: Regardless of who wins the primary, I think the race is Likely D. The Republican bench is weak, weak.

LL: The only decent candidates are Hennepin County Commissioner Jeff Johnson and State Senator David Osmet. And they're both from the Twin Cities area.

JT: Maybe it's time for a comeback... Michele Bachmann, anyone?

CJ: Please, no.

BBdS: Please to God no.

JT: I think she's definitely got the charm, charisma, and energy to be governor.

LL: I don't think she's got the sanity, however.

JT: Whatever. Plenty of insane people have become governor.

CJ: What about Iowa. Branstad is now Ambassador to China. Kim Reynolds is now governor. Will she win reelection?

BBdS: I'm not even sure she wins renomination. Branstad's left her an unpopular legacy. Ron Corbett, mayor of Cedar Rapids, is decently strong and I can see him knocking Reynolds off.

JT: The Democrats aren't presenting much of a challenge, though. Their primary's basically come down to State Senator Nick Boulton and former party chair Andy McGuire.

LL: Lizzy McGuire is running? I thought she was fictional. Do you mean Hilary Duff?

JT: Andy McGuire. Is Hilary single, though?

BBdS: Ass.

CJ: I think that Boulton is stronger in the general but McGuire has too much institutional support. We'll see how this plays out. Overall, how would you rank the race?

LL: Lean R.

BBdS: Tossup.

JT: Safe R.

CJ: A little bit to the West; South Dakota?

BBdS: Really, the interesting election will be the Republican primary. Winning it is paramount to victory.

JT: Between Rep. Kristi Noem and AG Marty Jackley, I'd say Jackley has the edge.

CJ: Why do you say that?

JT: Hmm, gut feeling? Noem's always seemed like a paper tiger.

LL: But she has Thune's endorsement in the primary. That goes a long way.

BBdS: I'd say the primary is a tossup. And the general will be Safe R, despite Billie Sutton being a decent candidate. Democrats haven't won a gubernatorial election since Ford was president.

CJ: But Sioux Falls mayor Mike Huether is running as an independent. That could complicate things.

LL: He'll just split the anti-Republican vote.

JT: Maybe he and Sutton can agree upon an Alaska 2014-style agreement.

BBdS: Maybe.

CJ: Looks like a similar thing is happening in Nebraska. Democrats aren't fielding a candidate, and instead are lining up behind Republican-turned-Independent Bob Krist. His running mate is Democratic-affilated legislator Sue Crawford.

JT: Pete Ricketts is really unpopular. He's a baby Brownback. But I still think he beats Krist easily.

LL: But now Mike Flood is challenging him in the primary, and has stated that if he loses the primary he'd run as an Independent Conservative.

BBdS: Christ, three right-wing candidates? Sounds like a very sad political environment.

CJ: Overall, I'm going to say that this election is a Lean Ricketts.

LL: Anyway, things might be better over in Kansas, where the actual Brownback has completely devastated the state.

JT: The Republican nominee is basically set to be the freedom-fight Kris Kobach.

BBdS: "Freedom fighter"?  Okay... He's probably the worst Secretary of State in the country right now.

CJ: The Democratic side is where things get interesting. There are two good candidates - Wichita mayor Carl Brewer and former State Agriculture Secretary Josh Svaty. I think Svaty pulls it off.

LL: Especially with all those moderate former Republicans who've switched their registration to Democratic in the past year. Kansas is almost reaching parity between registered Dems and Reps - about 600,000 Republicans and 580,000 Democrats.

Those new Democrats are going to be put off by Brewer's strong anti-gun stance.

BBdS: Wow, I didn't know that. I already thought Svaty was going to win, but those former Republicans are definitely going to go his way.

JT: I still think Kobach crushes Svaty in the general. Maybe like 54-46, closer than average, but still wins. Likely R.

CJ, LL, BBdS: [in unison] Tossup.

(christ this is taking a lot of time and space to write but we'll be back with even more)

[Kamala]

CONSTANCE JUSTICE: What does everyone think of Oklahoma? It's a rock-ribbed Republican state.

JASON TARTENBERG: But the Bride of Brownback, Mary Fallin, has been failin' the state.

B. B. duSCOMBE: Puns aside, Republican incompetence has hurt the state. It's no wonder why Democrats have won nearly every legislative special election in the state since Trump's win.

LEON LEMLER: Both sides have 3 major candidates running. I'd say, for the Republicans, LtG Todd Lamb is the favorite, but State Auditor Gary Jones and OKC Mayor Mike Cornett could give him a run for his money. I think Cornett would be the strongest in the general, but he's on the moderate wing of a state that leans very heavily to the right.

BBdS: The Democrats could put up a strong challenge - their favorite is the former State Attorney General Drew Edmondson - but he could have a hard time coalescing the left wing of the party, which would be drawn to State Senator Constance J–

JT: Holy sh[inks], Connie! You're running for Governor? And you were an Oklahoma state senator? That's so crazy. Are you single?

BBdS: Constance JOHNSON. Ass. Or to state house minority leader Scott Inman.

CJ: Jason, do you really think I would waste my time here with you if I was running for Governor of Oklahoma? Also, you were at my wedding. In Missoula. Where I live.

JT: Huh. I thought you were just there for your wedding.

LL: OK. Regardless of the candidates, I think this is an election that is Lean R. Democrats definitely have a chance - if they play their cards right.

CJ: I agree.

BBdS: What does everyone think about Texas? It's a big, deep red state, but it's also turned against Trump pretty strongly.

LL: Democrats should capitalize on that. Suburbs in Fort Bend, Denton, Hays, Collin, Williamson, Bastrop, Comal, and Gaudeloupe counties are vital for a Democratic victory, as well as strong margins in the urban centers of Travis, Bexar, Dallas, El Paso, and Harris counties.

JT: But Governor Abbott is actually popular among those suburbanites, even if the Senate rejected him for Attorney General.

CJ: Well, any candidate they put up ought to do better than Wendy Davis did in 2014.

JT: Do they actually have any candidates running? Serious ones, obviously.

LL: Well, there's only one. Travis County Judge Sarah Eckhardt, and she's likely sweep the primary.

BBdS: She's pretty popular among young Democrats and has made a lot of inroad with suburban women. And she's cross-endorsed Republican-turned-Independent Sarah Davis for Lieutenant Governor, arguably a more powerful position.

CJ: And Davis endorsed her back. Democrats aren't running a candidate in the LtG election.

JT: Abbott still crushes her. And Davis most likely loses. She's very strange, ideologically. But is she single?

BBdS: Ass. But still Safe R for gubernatorial, Lean R for the LtG's election.

LL: Thoughts on Arkansas?

JT: Hutchinson's a lock for reelection. Safe R.

CJ: There's no Democrat running, so Jason's right. His only challenger is a Libertarian.

BBdS: In Tennessee, popular governor Halsam is term-limited. Congresswoman Diane Black seems like the likely Republican nominee. Wealthy and good name recognition.

LL: And Democrats have coalesced around Nashville mayor Karl Dean. He's a good candidate, and this could become a race.

CJ: Tennessee's just too red. I think this is a Likely R. Depends if Black makes any significant errors on the campaign trail.

JT: Yeah. Democrats are dead in Tennessee. Ever since Corker's stunt with "Call me, Harold" ad.

CJ: Here's an interesting election: Alabama. Who'd've thought?

BBdS: Kay Ivey has been a decent governor, but who knows if she'll be able to escape Bentley's stench.

LL: Plus the Democrats have got two top-notch candidates running - former State Supreme Court Chief Justice Sue Bell Cobb and Tuscaloosa mayor Walter Maddox.

JT: Ivey's likely to be renominated, but I think it's a tossup for the Democratic nomination.

BBdS: I'd say it's maybe Tilt Cobb for the nomination, and a Lean R general, though that could change quickly.

CJ: Very exciting to see voters consider voting for the other side in such a ruby-red, inelastic state like Alabama.

LL: Many of them might be ancestral Democrats, especially in the northern part of state, just reverting to form for this election.

JT: Democrats' chances are overblown. AT MOST, this is Likely R. Kay Ivey's not offensive enough to turn off those Republicans who you say will vote for the Democrat.

CJ: How about Georgia? Should be a state Democrats will one day be competitive in, thanks to Atlantaland and minorities.

LL: Still a Likely R. The Democratic candidates, Staceys Abrams and Evans, are good, but Kemp and Cagle, the two most likely Republican nominee, won't bleed any votes to them.

JT: Plus, minority and youth turnout will be depressed since it's a midterm. Safe R.

BBdS: They both at least have a chance, so Safe R is dumb. Abrams could energize African-Americans and youth voters, while Evans has a decent amount of appeal to Republicans.

CJ: And South Carolina? The Republican primary looks brutal: governor Henry McMaster, LtG Kevin Bryant, and Democrat-turn-Republican former LtG Yancey McGill are all vying for the nomination.

JT: I think McMaster ends up on top, simply due to incumbency. And he has UN Ambassador Nikki Haley's endorsement. It still goes a long way.

LL: I'd agree. Of the big three, McGill's probably the weakest.

BBdS: The Democrats have recruited Inez Tenenbaum, former Chair of Consumer Product Safety Commission and former State Superintendent. She's also friendly with Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, which could benefit her in the general.

CJ: Tenenbaum is probably the best candidate they have, although she might be old news to the electorate. I mean, her last election was against Jim DeMint in 2004.

LL: But with Trump approvals being underwater in South Carolina, I'd say she's at least got a shot. Lean R, but closer to Likely than Tilt.

JT: Definitely. She's not going to win, but she won't do any worse than Sheheen did in his two rounds.

CJ: Alright, last of the Eastern states: Florida. Big state, and Scott is term-limited.

JT: Adam Putnam is my boy! He'll crush Ron DeSantis in the primary, and crush whatever incompetent loser the FDP puts up.

BBdS: Hold your horses, Putnam boy. Both the major Democratic candidates seem rather strong. Gwen Graham's got her regional variety, her last name, and her goodwill with voters. And John Morgan is a unknown entity, but very wealthy, and not a politician, which could help with the anti-establishment vote.

LL: Definitely. And polling numbers have shown that Putnam's not as strong as Jason suggests he is. He's consistently behind Graham by 4-5 points, even by garbage pollsters like Saint Leo University and the Florida Chamber of Commerce.

CJ: And Bill Nelson is on the ballot as well, and he's the most popular politician in Florida.

LL: I'm going to take a gamble and say the race is actually Tilt D... for now.

BBdS: Florida is fickle, but I think the Democrats have a tiny edge right now.

JT: Dumb[inks]ses. Putnam will become the governor of Florida, and then get elected President in 2024, after Trump's second term.

CJ: Good one.

[more to come in the next installment]


Please comment thanks

[Cactus Jack]

Hell with that old egg commercial, JT is a perfect object lesson to kids as to why one shouldn't do crack.

[BuckeyeNut]

I appreciate you mixing up the formula in posting. I know these podcast style updates must take more time, but they're a treat.

[Kamala]

I appreciate you mixing up the formula in posting. I know these podcast style updates must take more time, but they're a treat.

It’s fun! I love writing under different voices.

[Mr. Smith]

2 days? How has it only been 2 days?

I'm guessing the next part is gonna be real cray cray now.