Calling incumbents Toss-Up or Lean D "because they're incumbents" remains one of the most stupid practices of big election prognosticators. The reality is that Donnelly and McCaskill are favored to lose in 2018 and were never favored to win in 2018.
According to Cook...incumbents win toss-up races about 60% of the time
Yes, when their race was actually a Toss-Up at one point. But neither senator I mentioned is in a Toss-Up situation. Both have been favored to lose re-election (proper rating of Lean R or worse) from the moment they were elected, and that has never changed. The prognasticators insistence on being nice to incumbents is plain stupid, and that holds true for this year as well as when they rated Kirk at Lean R in early 2015.
I don't think they expected him to shoot himself in the foot so much.
Cook never should have had him at Lean R though, he was never favored for reelection in a Presidential year.
