According to David Bernstein, Gillibrand, Harris, Booker, and Klobuchar have told Democratic donors that they are running for President in 2020 (obviously that doesn't make anything official yet, but let's just assume that they do in fact run). Here's his tweet:
https://twitter.com/dbernstein/status/895684253349945350Let's say these four run, and all other candidates drop out after Iowa, where no other candidate gets over 0.1%. What would the primary map look like, and who comes out on top?
My personal prediction:Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA)Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY)Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ)Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN)(
Okay, so admittedly I have no idea who would do best in the Mountain West and Plains. I decided to give those states mostly to Klobuchar because I think she gives off somewhat of a folksy vibe (at least to me), and given that she's from the most rural state out of all four candidates, she might be able to connect with rural voters from this region slightly better than the other three. I think none of the four are particularly well suited for the Plains or Mountain West (none of them have Sanders-esque populism), which is why it was hard to pick a favorite there. I also think NC/VA/HI/MD/DE could easily go for Booker rather than Harris, NH/CT could easily go for Harris rather than Gillibrand, IN could easily go for Gillibrand rather than Klobuchar, and NM could easily go for Harris rather than Booker.)
I think Harris scores a narrow victory off of this map, with Booker second, Klobuchar third, and Gillibrand fourth. Once again, Klobuchar could easily lose every single state outside of Minnesota that I decided to give her, as I admittedly don't really know what to do with many of those states. Looking at the map now, it is somewhat strange that I think Klobuchar would do so well considering she probably has the smallest national profile out of all four of the candidates - and I'm guessing she would fare worse in many of your predictions.
