Hurricane Harvey - how will Trump's approval weather the storm?

[GeorgiaModerate]

This isn't appropriate for the non-political Harvey thread, so I'll just leave this comment from Ann Coulter here:

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[J. J.]

Has anyone noticed how the governor, county judge, and mayor are cooperating and how all the people are pulling together.   

[Virginiá]

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-politics-of-disasters/

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As it states, the incumbent usually, at the bare minimum, just has to appear to be "on top of things." To that effect, I think Trump is mostly on solid ground, at least from the perspective of his supporters (who will always give him the benefit of the doubt). What I'm curious about is all the little criticisms about his response that garnered reporting, such as him remarking at the "turnout" at one of his stops, the friday dump as the hurricane hit, the reports that he never actually met with anyone, his idea of closely monitoring being looking at a map with Abbott, and so on. It's hardly a perfect response. His donation would seem to help offset these issues, though.

Overall I doubt it effects him much. Possibly so little that everyone concludes it didn't hurt him at all. Katrina didn't effect Bush that much if you trust the aforementioned analysis, and I think FEMA has learned a lot of lessons from that tragedy.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Government response has been neither below or above expectations, so no direct hit or benefit to Trump's popularity. However, depending on how long fuel prices remain high because of this, it might indirectly hurt Trump by bringing an end to the Obama economic recovery he's benefited from. Gas prices are already up 30 to 40 cents a gallon here (15 to 20%).

[GeorgiaModerate]

Government response has been neither below or above expectations, so no direct hit or benefit to Trump's popularity. However, depending on how long fuel prices remain high because of this, it might indirectly hurt Trump by bringing an end to the Obama economic recovery he's benefited from. Gas prices are already up 30 to 40 cents a gallon here (15 to 20%).

That's about the level of price increase in Atlanta too.  In past cases of refinery or pipeline shutdown we've also seen some shortages here, but I haven't heard of any this time (so far).

[Virginiá]

I'm just going to post this unrelated thing here as well:

http://www.patheos.com/blogs/friendlyatheist/2017/08/31/quebec-offered-texas-aid-but-the-sec-of-state-said-they-just-needed-prayers/

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Why would he deny support like that? Texas pride?

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

I'm just going to post this unrelated thing here as well:

http://www.patheos.com/blogs/friendlyatheist/2017/08/31/quebec-offered-texas-aid-but-the-sec-of-state-said-they-just-needed-prayers/

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Why would he deny support like that? Texas pride?

Guessing and pure speculation: religion, specifically the abusive fake-Christianity practiced by conservatives and Republicans of a certain stripe.  The so-called reasoning would be that God sent the hurricane, so richgood people will be saved by God anyway (or weren't threatened in the first place) and all aid is doing is trying to stop God's will. That the victims would be better people if they'd just stop being lazy evil-doers and work hard all their problems would magically go away. (And if they didn't, it's because they haven't really accepted God into their hearts.) Or something along those lines.

Publicly, they'll say vague things about logistics.

[pbrower2a]

Government response has been neither below or above expectations, so no direct hit or benefit to Trump's popularity. However, depending on how long fuel prices remain high because of this, it might indirectly hurt Trump by bringing an end to the Obama economic recovery he's benefited from. Gas prices are already up 30 to 40 cents a gallon here (15 to 20%).

On the other side, Obama seems to have gotten no political benefit from swift and competent responses to natural disasters (Hurricane Sandy and some tornadoes) .

I expect some effects to remain for a while. This hurricane will result in job losses, higher rents in afflicted areas as the housing stock is reduced, higher energy prices, and higher taxes. Greater Houston has lots of toll roads, and I would expect Texas to allow toll increases to compensate for repairs to those toll roads. Insurance rates will rise nationwide. Of course there will be plenty of construction jobs that will reduce unemployment. 

Environmental damage will be very costly. Many of the wrecked places will be Superfund sites.

We will see a much higher cost of living, at least in coastal Texas, that will appear as inflation. We might also see interest rates rise as much of the rebuilding (and the replacement of cars and major appliances) will involve more borrowing.

Higher interest rates imply a 'market correction' in stock exchanges as near-zero interest rates become a thing of the past. The Obama bull market probably comes to an end sooner than expected.   

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Government response has been neither below or above expectations, so no direct hit or benefit to Trump's popularity. However, depending on how long fuel prices remain high because of this, it might indirectly hurt Trump by bringing an end to the Obama economic recovery he's benefited from. Gas prices are already up 30 to 40 cents a gallon here (15 to 20%).

That's about the level of price increase in Atlanta too.  In past cases of refinery or pipeline shutdown we've also seen some shortages here, but I haven't heard of any this time (so far).

Reuters, an hour ago:  Retail U.S. gasoline prices surge as refineries warn of shortages after Harvey

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-storm-harvey-energy/retail-u-s-gasoline-prices-surge-as-refineries-warn-of-shortages-after-harvey-idUSKCN1BD0B9

So far it's only a small price increase, with no real shortages yet. IF logistics can pick up the slack while production comes back up, then it should be too bad. But if Irma hits the same area (small chance), it could get bad.

I believe Trump has already opened the strategic reserve, which should help too.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Trump admin. considers flip-flop on repealing Obama-era flood regulations:

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/after-harvey-the-trump-administration-reconsiders-flood-rules-it-just-rolled-back/2017/09/01/c3a051ea-8e56-11e7-8df5-c2e5cf46c1e2_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_trumpflood-10a%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.b5656f1afdae


As means to prevent damage from floods it's probably the smart thing to do. Politically, it can still hurt the administration, since it attracts attention to the fact that they had initially rolled back these regulations.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

I think that the storm(s) are definitely turning out to be good for his dismal approval ratings.

It appears that just shutting up is the best thing he can do for his image. And to make that happen, it only takes something bigger than his ego.