1 In 10 Sanders Primary Voters Ended Up Supporting Trump, Survey Finds
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  1 In 10 Sanders Primary Voters Ended Up Supporting Trump, Survey Finds
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Author Topic: 1 In 10 Sanders Primary Voters Ended Up Supporting Trump, Survey Finds  (Read 2838 times)
Fubart Solman
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« on: August 24, 2017, 03:37:02 PM »

http://www.npr.org/2017/08/24/545812242/1-in-10-sanders-primary-voters-ended-up-supporting-trump-survey-finds

Also of note, 34% of Kasich voters went to Clinton.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #1 on: August 24, 2017, 04:08:01 PM »

That's like ... a really, really small percent, LOL.  I mean, the Republican and Democratic nominees usually pull around that number of the opposite party's voters, no?
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Da2017
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« Reply #2 on: August 24, 2017, 04:26:02 PM »

Interesting. Sanders had that same outsider appeal as trump.
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Technocracy Timmy
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« Reply #3 on: August 24, 2017, 04:48:52 PM »

If I'm not mistaken Trump and Sanders did better among Independents (granted this group is usually just as polarized as Democrats/Republicans) and lower income voters in their respective primaries. So I can see where the crossover came from.
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Santander
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« Reply #4 on: August 24, 2017, 04:53:06 PM »

Yeah, most of these were not even "real" Democrats, they were independents or "ancestral Democrats".
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Illiniwek
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« Reply #5 on: August 24, 2017, 05:15:25 PM »

That's not that bad when you consider a lot of these Sanders supporters were populists who have never really turned out for the Democrats. Even if Hillary were a squeaky clean candidate they probably wouldn't have voted Dem.

Still though, these people are HPs.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #6 on: August 24, 2017, 05:16:48 PM »

That's not that bad when you consider a lot of these Sanders supporters were populists who have never really turned out for the Democrats. Even if Hillary were a squeaky clean candidate they probably wouldn't have voted Dem.

Still though, these people are HPs.

Let's not pretend Sanders voters were Republican leaners.
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Santander
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« Reply #7 on: August 24, 2017, 05:24:37 PM »

That's not that bad when you consider a lot of these Sanders supporters were populists who have never really turned out for the Democrats. Even if Hillary were a squeaky clean candidate they probably wouldn't have voted Dem.

Still though, these people are HPs.

Let's not pretend Sanders voters were Republican leaners.

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PragmaticPopulist
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« Reply #8 on: August 24, 2017, 05:33:25 PM »

Pretty sure most of these voters were registered Democrats who have been voting for Republicans since the 2000 election. It's an open question though whether they would've turned out for Hillary Clinton had she been the D nominee in 2008. There were polls showing her winning WV and KY in the general against McCain.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #9 on: August 24, 2017, 06:07:00 PM »

That's not that bad when you consider a lot of these Sanders supporters were populists who have never really turned out for the Democrats. Even if Hillary were a squeaky clean candidate they probably wouldn't have voted Dem.

Still though, these people are HPs.

Let's not pretend Sanders voters were Republican leaners.



And those two states' totals make up what percent of Sanders' voters, smartass?
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America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗
TexArkana
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« Reply #10 on: August 24, 2017, 06:58:42 PM »

That's not that bad when you consider a lot of these Sanders supporters were populists who have never really turned out for the Democrats. Even if Hillary were a squeaky clean candidate they probably wouldn't have voted Dem.

Still though, these people are HPs.

Let's not pretend Sanders voters were Republican leaners.



And those two states' totals make up what percent of Sanders' voters, smartass?

Also, most Democratic primary voters in Kentucky and West Virginia only voted for Sanders out of sheer disgust with Clinton's anti-coal rhetoric. which is somewhat ironic, since Sanders is more left-wing on coal than Clinton was, but he was smart enough not to really talk about it like Clinton did.
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Santander
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« Reply #11 on: August 24, 2017, 07:09:19 PM »

That's not that bad when you consider a lot of these Sanders supporters were populists who have never really turned out for the Democrats. Even if Hillary were a squeaky clean candidate they probably wouldn't have voted Dem.

Still though, these people are HPs.

Let's not pretend Sanders voters were Republican leaners.



And those two states' totals make up what percent of Sanders' voters, smartass?

They certainly made up a disproportionately large percentage of Sanders -> Trump voters, which is who we're talking about here.
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ProgressiveCanadian
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« Reply #12 on: August 26, 2017, 06:04:03 PM »

When you alienate your base this is bound to happen. Most Sanders voters stayed home however.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #13 on: September 05, 2017, 01:55:57 AM »

I'm dubious about the whole survey. The data is online. The survey was conducted by an academic consortium. The survey was divided up into 50 segments. There were 120 common questions, and 120 questions that a researcher could ask that were specific to their research. They could also choose which persons were in their segment. So a researcher might pay for a 1200-person national sample of old people or millennials, etc.

But the survey was conducted on line using Yougov. Respondents were self-selecting. They had to use the Internet and volunteer to be surveyed. Even if you do demographic matching so you get the right percentage of various demographic groups, you still have that selection bias.

Based on the raw numbers it appears that President Clinton was elected by a 48% to 41% margin, with 11% voting for someone else.

Also, lets say that 50% of respondents were Democrats, and 25% supported Sanders, what percentage actually voted in a primary? 10% of the total (i.e. 40% primary turnout). So that would mean that 1% of the total were Trump-Sanders supporters. But relative sampling error goes up as the number of respondents goes down.
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Shadows
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« Reply #14 on: September 05, 2017, 08:38:31 AM »
« Edited: September 05, 2017, 08:40:24 AM by Shadows »

The WV/KY number is stupid. Sanders had 13M primary voters. WV/KY made a very small fraction of it & would little influence on the overall number. The sample size of WV/KY voters will be quite small.

See here is the deal. What % of Hillary voters voted for McCain in 2008? According to most polls, McCain got 10%+ of the Democratic votes in 2008, a number higher than what Trump got. Most of them were Hillary primary voters (rather than Obama voters).

Hillary to McCain was likely a higher number than the 10%. 10% is a pretty low number & is also testament to the effort of Bernie as well. And stop the with the KY/WV BS.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #15 on: September 05, 2017, 10:42:13 AM »
« Edited: September 05, 2017, 10:48:46 AM by TDAS04 »

I thought it would be worse, and it probably would be if Bernie-backers who stayed home were counted in this survey.  So many Republicans who weren't happy about Trump held their noses and voted for him anyway, but too many Bernie bros couldn't do the same for Clinton.

There is something that Democrats need to learn from Republicans: Party unity.
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #16 on: September 05, 2017, 12:57:08 PM »

I thought it would be worse, and it probably would be if Bernie-backers who stayed home were counted in this survey.  So many Republicans who weren't happy about Trump held their noses and voted for him anyway, but too many Bernie bros couldn't do the same for Clinton.

There is something that Democrats need to learn from Republicans: Party unity.

34% of Kasich voters apparently went to Hillary, try again.
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°Leprechaun
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« Reply #17 on: September 05, 2017, 12:58:43 PM »

I thought it would be worse, and it probably would be if Bernie-backers who stayed home were counted in this survey.  So many Republicans who weren't happy about Trump held their noses and voted for him anyway, but too many Bernie bros couldn't do the same for Clinton.

There is something that Democrats need to learn from Republicans: Party unity.

Yes, and both sides continuing to blame each other doesn't help.
Also, the popular vote doesn't matter. Clinton won it, but did not win a majority.
It is possible, but rare, to win a majority of the popular vote and still lose the electoral college.
People living in safe states shouldn't feel compelled to vote for the lesser of two evils.
This is why we need something like IRV.
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tmcusa2
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« Reply #18 on: September 05, 2017, 01:01:01 PM »

As far as the GOP goes, the anti-Trump Republicans blew it, honestly. They should have united early, in favor of one candidate.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #19 on: September 05, 2017, 01:38:21 PM »

I thought it would be worse, and it probably would be if Bernie-backers who stayed home were counted in this survey.  So many Republicans who weren't happy about Trump held their noses and voted for him anyway, but too many Bernie bros couldn't do the same for Clinton.

There is something that Democrats need to learn from Republicans: Party unity.

34% of Kasich voters apparently went to Hillary, try again.

So?  What percentage of the Republican electorate consisted of Kasich voters?
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°Leprechaun
tmcusa2
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« Reply #20 on: September 05, 2017, 02:02:16 PM »

I thought it would be worse, and it probably would be if Bernie-backers who stayed home were counted in this survey.  So many Republicans who weren't happy about Trump held their noses and voted for him anyway, but too many Bernie bros couldn't do the same for Clinton.

There is something that Democrats need to learn from Republicans: Party unity.

34% of Kasich voters apparently went to Hillary, try again.

So?  What percentage of the Republican electorate consisted of Kasich voters?
Actually,
I  believe that it was the independents that decided the election and many of those who voted in open primaries did vote for Sanders.
Some voted for Kasich, but not as many as those who voted for Sanders. At least that would be my guess.
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Shadows
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« Reply #21 on: September 06, 2017, 01:39:00 AM »

I thought it would be worse, and it probably would be if Bernie-backers who stayed home were counted in this survey.  So many Republicans who weren't happy about Trump held their noses and voted for him anyway, but too many Bernie bros couldn't do the same for Clinton.

There is something that Democrats need to learn from Republicans: Party unity.

34% of Kasich voters apparently went to Hillary, try again.

So?  What percentage of the Republican electorate consisted of Kasich voters?
Actually,
I  believe that it was the independents that decided the election and many of those who voted in open primaries did vote for Sanders.
Some voted for Kasich, but not as many as those who voted for Sanders. At least that would be my guess.


That is true. Of the small Bernie/Trump voters, most of them weren't even Democrats. Most young people are also Independents.

So this party unity is BS because they were never part of the party !
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Statilius the Epicurean
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« Reply #22 on: September 06, 2017, 06:22:18 AM »
« Edited: September 06, 2017, 06:33:20 AM by Statilius the Epicurean »

As far as the GOP goes, the anti-Trump Republicans blew it, honestly. They should have united early, in favor of one candidate.

The anti-Trump Republicans were split between the moderates backing Kasich/Jeb etc. and the hardline movement conservatives backing Cruz. That's how Trump won: he happened upon a directionless, deeply split party and as an outsider was able to play the unifying candidate.

The only candidate who could have stopped Trump was Cruz, and like hell were the "establishment" going to throw their weight behind someone they hated even more.
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #23 on: September 07, 2017, 10:05:00 AM »

As far as the GOP goes, the anti-Trump Republicans blew it, honestly. They should have united early, in favor of one candidate.

The anti-Trump Republicans were split between the moderates backing Kasich/Jeb etc. and the hardline movement conservatives backing Cruz. That's how Trump won: he happened upon a directionless, deeply split party and as an outsider was able to play the unifying candidate.

The only candidate who could have stopped Trump was Cruz, and like hell were the "establishment" going to throw their weight behind someone they hated even more.

Walker did the right thing by dropping out early (he was one of my favorites, but in terms of unity, it was right).  The GOP candidates didn't do anything to attack Trump in his weak moments, and there were A LOT of weak moments.
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #24 on: September 07, 2017, 10:47:23 AM »

As far as the GOP goes, the anti-Trump Republicans blew it, honestly. They should have united early, in favor of one candidate.

The anti-Trump Republicans were split between the moderates backing Kasich/Jeb etc. and the hardline movement conservatives backing Cruz. That's how Trump won: he happened upon a directionless, deeply split party and as an outsider was able to play the unifying candidate.

The only candidate who could have stopped Trump was Cruz, and like hell were the "establishment" going to throw their weight behind someone they hated even more.

Walker did the right thing by dropping out early (he was one of my favorites, but in terms of unity, it was right).  The GOP candidates didn't do anything to attack Trump in his weak moments, and there were A LOT of weak moments.

Hahaha, what? They were always on the attack, rather indiscriminately. But as Trump pointed out, everyone that attacked him ended up going down in flames right after the fact. Arguably Kasich got as far as he did because he didn't attack much, and Cruz waited until the end.

Hillary was lucky enough to pull off the Popular Vote.
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