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Senator Cris
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« on: August 25, 2017, 11:26:21 am »

Mike
November 4, 2020


That's the day after. The republican ticket composed by President Trump and Vice President Pence was defeated by the democratic ticket. Cory Booker, the Senator of New Jersey, is the President-elect of the United States. Tulsi Gabbard is the new Vice President of the United States.

Booker won big league. He won 323-215. He picked up several states won by Trump in 2016. Florida, a friendly state for the Republicans like North Carolina, the second congressional district of Maine and expecially three states of the Rust Belt that surprisingly went to Trump in 2016: Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.



Senator Cory Booker (D-NJ)/Representative Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI) 323 EVs, 52.5% PV
President Donald Trump (R-NY)/Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN) 215 EVs, 45.2% PV

We are back to a situation similar to 2008, with democrats winning bigly the presidency and controlling both the House and the Senate. In 2010, Republicans gained new lifeblood thanks to the Tea Party movement. Something similar is needed for 2022 and beyond. Not a far right movement like Tea Party, something less extremists but most importantly new fresh faces are needed. A new start is needed.

According to various reports, Mike Pence wants to run in 2024. President, soon former President Trump already told his aides that the presidency was an exciting but difficult journey and that he had no intention to run another campaign with the risk of winning the nomination and then presidency again. This might be a good opening for Mike Pence's chances. He's a social conservative, he could attract to Trump voters and is also liked by the establishment. Iowa, the first state in the nation, is a very good fit for him.
« Last Edit: August 26, 2017, 08:44:57 am by Senator Cris »Logged

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« Reply #1 on: August 25, 2017, 06:05:51 pm »

Tulsi?Huh
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Senator Cris
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« Reply #2 on: August 26, 2017, 08:43:57 am »

Cory
November 4, 2020


"It's done" said Gardner, with a sad face, to his wife and his top collaborators. Fox News just projected that Governor Hickenlooper has unseated him in the Colorado Senate race. That was not a really surprise. Gardner ran a great campaign for an incumbent Senator in a state where Trump is toxic and that is shifting more and more towards the Democrats, but it wasn't still enough.

Don't worry. We know that it was almost impossible. There will be other occasions Gardner said, and he was already thinking at 2022. Both the Senate seat and the governorship will be at stake, he might start as a frontrunner in the Republican primary and might still have a shot if the environment is good for Republicans.

In 2018, Republicans retained the Senate 50-50, with the democrats retaining all their seats in traditional republican states and picking up the seats of Arizona and Nevada.

The Democrats' plan was accomplished in 2020. The Democrats needed to defend all their seats and to pick up at least one seat in order to be sure of majority (with hindsight, Democrats would still have won the Senate without any change, as the new Vice President is a Democrat and in that case 50-50 is enough). The democrats retained all their seats and picked up Colorado and North Carolina, where former Mayor of Charlotte Anthony Foxx defeated Thom Tillis. At the end of the election, Democrats moved from 50 to 52 seats, including Independents who caucus with them, while Republicans moved from 50 to 48.



Democrats 52 seats (+2)
Republicans 48 seats (- 2)
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Senator Cris
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« Reply #3 on: August 27, 2017, 12:14:37 pm »

Paul
November 7, 2020


It was an expected, but still stunning defeat, on various levels. The Republicans had to suffer in the midterm elections of 2018, when they slightly retained both the House and the Senate, but Trump's defeat helped the Democrats to take back both the House and the Senate in 2020.

In 2018, the Democrats picked up 18 House seats, moving from 194 to 212, while the Republicans moved from 241 to 223. In 2020, the Democrats needed just 6 seats for gaining a majority, but they gained more than 7. They gained 10 seats and moved from 212 to 222, while the Republicans moved from 223 to 213. Nancy Pelosi announced that she will not be running to be the new Speaker of the House. Current democratic frontrunner is Representative Tim Ryan from Ohio. It looks like a Ryan will succeed another Ryan.

It was an hard blow for Paul Ryan. He worked very hard to distinguish Congress elections from the presidential race, but Trump's fallout taked down the chances of keeping control of the House. He was furios with Trump. "He let us sink with him. He's a disgrace for our party", you could hear that if you were close to his office.

Some voices from the most conservative area are calling Ryan to step down, but he doesn't want to listen and will continue his term as Representative from Wisconsin and as Minority Leader, waiting for the 2022 elections to come, when the Republicans, if they can run on a new message, will be able to take back the control of the House.

Ryan wants to stay also in order to increase his profile for 2024. He's considered by many as the real frontrunner for the Republican primaries. He's the number one pick of the establishment and also he started his own career as a favorite of the conservative base. It will not be easy for Ryan, shall he run, but he starts as the one to beat.



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« Reply #4 on: August 27, 2017, 12:22:31 pm »

I'm hoping for a Different Paul, or for someone to unseat Duckworth in 2022 (Some moderate Republican from IL, though that's unlikely)
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Senator Cris
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« Reply #5 on: August 28, 2017, 10:59:10 am »

Charlie
January 20, 2021


"We have to do something. It's time to take our party back" said Massachusetts Governor Charlie Baker, at the presence of his fellow moderate Maryland Governor Larry Hogan, watching Cory Booker being sworn in as the new President of the United States.

Moderates of the GOP saw that it was the right moment. It was time to coalesce around one figure, and that figure had to be the moderates's pick for 2020. Governor Hogan refused to do that,
Baker'll have to raise his profile. That means TV appareances, stumping on the trail in the midterms, trips to early primary states like New Hampshire. He wants to run as a moderate, yes, but as an “angry moderate”. Angry with the way Trump turned off the Grand Old Party, angry as someone who wants his party going back to its original values.

Another potential candidate of the moderate wing is Governor Kasich. He already ran two times: first in 2016, when he won just his home state of Ohio. The second time in 2020, when he challenged President Trump. In that occasion, he won only one state, New Hampshire, and was forced to drop out after winning only Vermont on Super Tuesday.

Kasich challenged Trump, but other two republicans considered a challenge but then refused to run. First, it's Ben Sasse, the junior Senator from Nebraska. He was a very critical voice of Trump in 2016, but then the lack of money and the strong position of President Trump among the GOP electorate pushed Sasse to not go for it. Second, it's Justin Amash, the new libertarian hero ready to take the eredity of Ron and Rand Paul as the head of the libertarian wing. Both of them are considered potential candidates for 2024.
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Senator Cris
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« Reply #6 on: August 29, 2017, 11:42:18 am »

Marco
April 25, 2021


“I considered it, but no. I'm not running again. Good luck with your race next year. Count on me for everyting.”

“I'm not running. If you want to go for it, I wish you the best of luck.”

“I'll not join the crowd, but it's great to see a Floridian running. But I can't guarantee an endorsement, since there are so many people close to me that want to run”

Marco Rubio received a lot of phone calls. First, it was Cory Gardner. Gardner endorsed Rubio in 2016 and asked him to endorse and campaign for him in his next 2022 race. With the occasion, he asked Rubio if he want's to run again. Maybe Gardner's not only looking at 2022...

Second, it was Nikki Halley's turn. She endorsed Marco on the eve of the South Carolina primary and first of making clear the plan, she wanted to know if Marco was running again. She's another fresh face, already considered as a rising star a few years ago. She served as UN Ambassador during Trump presidency and she think she has the right experience for an higher job like the presidency.

Last, but not least, it was Rick Scott's turn. He was re-elected Governor in 2014, was term-limited in 2018 and challenged Senator Bill Nelson, but was defeated by high single digits. He wants to follow his ambitions with a campaign for the presidency. Scott is very close to Trump and wants to run with a similar message. A populist message.
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Senator Cris
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« Reply #7 on: August 29, 2017, 02:50:24 pm »

Tom Jr.
November 2, 2021


“We did a great work” said Tom Kean Jr., Minority Leader of the New Jersey Senate and now Governor elect. First of all, he was able to shake off, at least partially, Chris Christie's legacy. Chris Christie was a disaster for New Jersey GOP. Many pundits predicted that shaking off Christie's legacy would have required at least 8 years, but Kean Jr. was able to do that. Also he was helped by the low approval rating of Governor Phil Murphy: many found various similitudes with John Corzine's amministration.

The Kean's ability, his moderate profil, caused the donors and the media to start to talk about him as a potential 2024 contender. That's the same case of Chris Christie: he was first elected in 2009, and many people wanted him to run in 2012. He declined to do so and waited until 2016, who knows what Tom Jr. will do.

The same day Virginia voted for a new Governor, as incumbent Ralph Northam was term-limited. Democrat Attorney General Mark Herring retained the governorship for his party and confirmed that Virginia is becoming more and more democratic, on both federal and local level. Herring defeated conservative Corey Stewart.

Gubernatorial results:

New Jersey Governor
Tom Kean Jr. 49.9%

Patrick Murphy 49.3%

Virginia Governor
Mark Herring 54%

Corey Stewart 44.5%
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Senator Cris
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« Reply #8 on: August 30, 2017, 02:06:37 pm »

Scott
February 19, 2022


“Here we go! The winner of the 2021 presidential straw poll is Governor Scott Walker!”

Scott Walker won the 2021 CPAC presidential straw poll. He made a powerful speech, even better than his 2015 one. He survived Trump's midterm in 2018 and was narrowly re-elected as Governor. He's currently running for re-election to a fourth term, but he's looking not just at 2022, but is considering a new campaign for President. He's popular with the grassrots base, and is accepted by the establishment. This choice would embarass former Speaker Paul Ryan, who's from the same state of Walker.

Ted Cruz gained the second place in the presidential straw poll. He's a great orator, he made a powerful speech too. Cruz easily won re-election in 2018 and is considered a potential candidate for 2024. He's very ambitious and he never denied that he wants to be President one day.

Cruz's 2016 running mate, Carly Fiorina, is considering a run too.

CPAC Straw Poll Results
Scott Walker 23.4%
Ted Cruz 18.6%
Justin Amash 17.8%
Mike Pence 15.4%
Carly Fiorina 6.8%
Tom Cotton 4.9%
Ben Sasse 4.8%
Rick Scott 3.2%
Nikki Haley 2.7%
John Kasich 1.5%
Charlie Baker 0.9%



Are people interested in this?
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« Reply #9 on: August 30, 2017, 02:07:39 pm »

I like it, but who cares what I think.
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Senator Cris
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« Reply #10 on: August 31, 2017, 10:54:00 am »

Joni
June 24, 2022


Last time GOP had a great success in congressional election was 2014. Joni was part of that success. She was succesfully re-elected in 2020. Despite the national environment, Iowa was and is still shifting more and more towards the Republicans. Also Ernst had good approval ratings, so she won re-election pretty easily.

She is the junior senator of Iowa, the first in the nation state. Many want Joni to run for President, but looks like she wants to follow the example of Chuck Grassley and stays in the United States Senate. If she runs, she'll be a strong favorite for Iowa. If she doesn't run, she will still able to play a very important role in the primary season: her endorsement would be gold for one of the candidates running.

Not just Ernst. Parts of 2014 success were Cory Gardner, who right now is mulling a run for Senate, Thom Tillis, Dan Sullivan, Bill Cassidy, Steve Daines, Mike Rounds, Shelley Moore Capito and Tom Cotton. Many believe in the potential of Capito and Cotton, expecially of the last one. He's a rising star, he won re-election easily in 2020, has a strong conservative message, is strong on foreign policy and might be a strong voice in 2024.
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Senator Cris
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« Reply #11 on: August 31, 2017, 01:51:23 pm »

Doug
November 8, 2022



Part 1 of 2

“We can project right at poll closings that republican Doug Ducey will be the new Senator from the state of Arizona. He will succeed John McCain, who's retiring.”

Senator John McCain, who has a brain cancer, decided to retire after a long career in the Senate. Governor Doug Ducey, who was term-limited, decided to run for Senate and cleared the republican field. He faced democrat Randall Friese and defeated him by double digits in the general election.

It was a great night for Republicans, who gained back the control of the United States Senate, thanks to three pick-up: Colorado, where former Senator Cory Gardner defeated democratic incumbent Michael Bennet, Nevada, where former Representative Joe Heck defeated incumbent Senator Catherine Cortez-Masto in what was a rematch of the 2016 race and New Hampshire, where there was another rematch between Senator Maggie Hassan and former Senator Kelly Ayotte.

It was an important sign for Republicans that they picked up the seats of two states, Colorado and Nevada, that Trump turned off from Republicans and that were trending more and more towards the Democrats. With the right nominee in 2024, those two states might become competitive again.

Republicans moved from 48 to 51 senators, while Democrats moved from 52 to 49, including the two independent senators who caucus with them.



Republicans 51 (+3)
Democrats 49 (- 3)

Key Senate results:

Arizona
Doug Ducey 54.8%
Randall Friese 44.2%

Colorado
Cory Gardner 49.8% (R +1)
Michael Bennet 48.7%

Florida
Marco Rubio 53.9%
Buddy Dyer 44.4%

Illinois
Tammy Duckworth 51.8%
Peter Roskam 47.3%

Nevada
Joe Heck 49.1% (R +1)
Catherine Cortez Masto 48.9%

New Hampshire
Kelly Ayotte 49.9% (R +1)
Maggie Hassan 49.5%

North Carolina
Pat McCrory 50.4%
Deborah Ross 47.4%

Pennsylvania
Pat Toomey 51.7%
John Fetterman 47.2%

Wisconsin
Ron Johnson 51.5%
Kathleen Vinehout 48.1%



Thanks to Not_Madigan for his contribution for the GOP candidates for Illinois races.
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« Reply #12 on: August 31, 2017, 02:13:01 pm »

Senator McCrory = Pull the trigger, Piglet
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« Reply #13 on: August 31, 2017, 02:29:28 pm »

Mike
November 4, 2020



Senator Cory Booker (D-NJ)/Representative Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI) 323 EVs, 52.5% PV
President Donald Trump (R-NY)/Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN) 215 EVs, 45.2% PV

Dang, +7 in the PV and not even Arizona?
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« Reply #14 on: August 31, 2017, 07:44:17 pm »

Loving this!
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Senator Cris
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« Reply #15 on: September 01, 2017, 09:42:49 am »

Mike
November 4, 2020



Senator Cory Booker (D-NJ)/Representative Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI) 323 EVs, 52.5% PV
President Donald Trump (R-NY)/Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN) 215 EVs, 45.2% PV

Dang, +7 in the PV and not even Arizona?
It was the closest state in the nation. Trump won it 49.4-49.3.
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Senator Cris
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« Reply #16 on: September 01, 2017, 01:18:35 pm »

Doug
November 8, 2022

Part 2 of 2

Full list of United States Senator:


Alabama: Richard Shelby, Roy Moore
Alaska: Lisa Murkwoski, Dan Sullivan
Arizona: Kyrsten Sinema, Doug Ducey
Arkansas: John Boozman, Tom Cotton
California: Dianne Feinstein, Kamala Harris
Colorado: John Hickenlooper, Cory Gardner
Connecticut: Richard Blumental, Chris Murphy
Delaware: Tom Carper, Chris Coons
Florida: Bill Nelson, Marco Rubio
Georgia: Johnny Isakson, David Perdue
Hawaii: Brian Schatz, Mazie Hirono
Idaho: Mike Crapo, Jim Risch
Illinois: Dick Durbin, Tammy Duckworth
Indiana: Joe Donnelly, Todd Young
Iowa: Chuck Grassley, Joni Ernst
Kansas: Jerry Moran, Roger Marshall
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell, Rand Paul
Louisiana: Bill Cassidy, John N. Kennedy
Maine: Susan Collins, Angus King
Maryland: Ben Cardin, Chris Van Hollen
Massachusetts: Elizabeth Warren, Ed Markey
Michigan: Debbie Stabenow, Gary Peters
Minnesota: Amy Klobuchar, Al Franken
Mississippi: Thad Cochran, Roger Wicker
Missouri: Claire McCaskill, Roy Blunt
Montana: Jon Tester, Steve Daines
Nebraska: Deb Fisher, Ben Sasse
Nevada: Jacky Rosen, Joe Heck
New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen, Kelly Ayotte
New Jersey: Bob Menendez, Frank Pallone
New Mexico: Tom Udall, Martin Heinrich
New York: Chuck Schumer, Kirsten Gillibrand
North Carolina: Anthony Foxx, Pat McCrory
North Dakota: John Hoeven, Heidi Heitkamp
Ohio: Sherrod Brown, Rob Portman
Oklahoma: Jim Inhofe, James Lankford
Oregon: Ron Wyden, Jeff Merkley
Pennsylvania: Bob Casey Jr., Pat Toomey
Rhode Island: Jack Reed, Sheldon Whitehouse
South Carolina: Lindsey Graham, Tim Scott
South Dakota: John Thune, Mike Rounds
Tennessee: Lamar Alexander, Bob Corker
Texas: John Cornyn, Ted Cruz
Utah: Orrin Hatch, Mike Lee
Vermont: Patrick Leahy, Bernie Sanders
Virginia: Mark Warner, Tim Kaine
Washington: Patty Murray, Maria Cantwell
West Virginia: Joe Manchin, Shelley Moore Capito
Wisconsin: Ron Johnson, Tammy Baldwin
Wyoming: Mike Enzi, John Barrasso
« Last Edit: September 02, 2017, 01:23:46 pm by Senator Cris »Logged

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« Reply #17 on: September 01, 2017, 01:25:37 pm »

#JacksonWouldHaveWon
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Senator Cris
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« Reply #18 on: September 02, 2017, 01:21:34 pm »

Pete
November 8, 2022

Part 1 of 2


Pete Ricketts, governor of Nebraska, is term-limited and cannot run for re-election. He was a republican governor with strong conservative credentials. He's with Lieutenant Governor Mike Foley, elected new governor. They are ready to take the stage for the Foley victory speech, but first of that, while on the TV the media are continuing to call various races for the candidates, Ricketts received a call from a donor.

“Congratulations for the Foley victory”

“Thank you very much!”

“In January you'll not be longer be Governor, but I hope this is not an end but the start of something new. And you know what I mean.”

“I know, I know [laughing]. We'll see.”

Let's start with a recap of how gubernatorial elections went in 2018. Democrats retained all their governorships: California, Colorado, Connecticut, Hawaii, Minnesota, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island. Also the democrats gained from the Republicans the governorships of Florida, Illinois, Maine, Michigan, Nevada, New Mexico. Republicans retained Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Wisconsin and Wyoming. Independent Governor Bill Walker of Alaska was re-elected. Republicans moved from 33 to 27 governorships, while Democrats moved from 16 to 22.

In 2019, Republicans retained Kentucky and Mississippi, while Democrats retained Louisiana. In 2020, Democrats retained Delaware, Montana, North Carolina, Washington and picked up New Hampshire and Vermont. Republicans retained Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota, Utah and West Virginia. Republicans moved from 27 to 25, while Democrats moved from 22 to 24.

In the 2022 gubernatorial elections, Republicans made big gains. They retained all their states and picked up several states: Alaska, Colorado, Illinois, Nevada, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont and moved from 26 to 34. Democrats, who were forced to play on the defensive, moved from 23 to 16.



Republicans 34 (+8)

Democrats 16 (- 7)

Key gubernatorial results:

Alaska
Dan Sullivan 39% (R +1)
Mark Begich 34.3%
Byron Mallott 25.5%

Arizona
Ken Bennett 54.2%
Greg Stanton 45.2%

Colorado
Cynthia Coffman 49.2% (R +1)
Jared Polis 49%

Florida
Gwen Graham 49.5%
Adam Putnam 49.4%

Illinois
Kirk Dillard 49.7% (R +1)
J. B. Pritzker 49.3%

Maryland
Boyd Rutherford 50%
Benjamin Jealous 49.5%

Michigan
Debbie Dingel 49.8%
Bill Schuette 49%

Nevada
Adam Laxalt 49.9% (R +1)
Ross Miller 49.2%

New Hampshire
Chris Sununu 50.3% (R +1)
Colin Van Ostern 49.2%

Pennsylvania
Tom Marino 51.1% (R +1)
Allyson Schwartz 47.2%

Rhode Island
Allan Fung 50.5% (R +1)
Gina Raimondo 47.1%

Vermont
Phil Scott 50.3% (R +1)
Sue Minter 48.9%
« Last Edit: September 02, 2017, 01:25:26 pm by Senator Cris »Logged

Not_A_Man
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« Reply #19 on: September 02, 2017, 03:25:48 pm »

YEAH DILLARD!
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Senator Cris
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« Reply #20 on: September 03, 2017, 01:43:50 pm »

Pete
November 8, 2022

Part 2 of 2

Full list of United States Governors:

Alabama: Kay Ivey
Alaska: Dan Sullivan
Arizona: Ken Bennett
Arkansas: Tim Griffin
California: Gavin Newsom
Colorado: Cynthia Coffman
Connecticut: Kevin Lembo
Delaware: John Carney
Florida: Gwen Graham
Georgia: Casey Cagle
Hawaii: Colleen Hanabusa
Idaho: Raul Labrador
Illinois: Kirk Dillard
Indiana: Eric Holcomb
Iowa: Key Reynolds
Kansas: Kris Kobach
Kentucky: Matt Bevin
Louisiana: John Bel Edwards
Maine: Janet Mills
Maryland: Boyd Rutherford
Massachusetts: Charlie Baker
Michigan: Debbie Dingell
Minnesota: Chris Coleman
Mississippi: Tate Reeves
Missouri: Eric Greitens
Montana: Brian Schweitzer
Nebraska: Mike Foley
Nevada: Adam Laxalt
New Hampshire: Chris Sununu
New Jersey: Tom Kean Jr.
New Mexico: Michelle Lujan Grisham
New York: Andrew Cuomo
North Carolina: Roy Cooper
North Dakota: Doug Burgum
Ohio: Mike DeWine
Oklahoma: Todd Lamb
Oregon: Kate Brown
Pennsylvania: Republican
Rhode Island: Allan Fung
South Carolina: Henry McMaster
South Dakota: Kristi Noem
Tennessee: Diane Black
Texas: Greg Abbott
Utah: Josh Romney
Vermont: Phil Scott
Virginia: Mark Herring
Washington: Jay Inslee
West Virginia: Jim Justice
Wisconsin: Scott Walker
Wyoming: Ed Murray
« Last Edit: September 04, 2017, 05:12:26 am by Senator Cris »Logged

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« Reply #21 on: September 03, 2017, 04:05:02 pm »

How is Adam Putnam the governor of Florida if he lost in 2022?
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« Reply #22 on: September 04, 2017, 05:12:45 am »

How is Adam Putnam the governor of Florida if he lost in 2022?
Fixed Smiley
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« Reply #23 on: September 04, 2017, 01:39:09 pm »

Matt
January 24, 2023


Republicans did surprisingly well in the Rust Belt back in 2016. Trump failed to replicate the same success in 2020 and the next republican nominee needs to do well in this area. Some potential candidates from this area, beside frontrunners Paul Ryan of Wisconsin and Mike Pence of Indiana, include some other names.

As of the governors, the first name that comes to mind is John Kasich of Ohio. He already ran in both 2016 and 2020, but there is another prospect. It's Matt Bevin, the governor of Kentucky. He has strong conservative credentials and he might reasonate well with voters of the Rust Belt. Another governor already mentioned as potential candidate is Scott Walker of Wisconsin.

There are many senators and representatives that are representing Rust Belt states. First of all, it's Rob Portman of Ohio, who might run (some says only if Kasich denies to run a third time) on his message of a common sense conservatism. The other names came from neighboring states: Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania, who can run as a typical republican from a swing state, Shelley Moore Capito of West Virginia and Senator Todd Young of Indiana. Young is a rising star, but a run seems not likely, as Hoosier Mike Pence is very likely to run. However, he might be a good VP pick. As of representatives, there are Paul Ryan of Wisconsin and Justin Amash of Michigan, the new libertarian hero.

2024 Republican Nomination Poll
Paul Ryan 14%
Mike Pence 11%
Ted Cruz 9%
John Kasich 5%
Nikki Haley 4%
Scott Walker 4%
Tom Cotton 3%
Charlie Baker 3%
Justin Amash 3%
Cory Gardner 2%
Rick Scott 2%
Ben Sasse 2%
Carly Fiorina 2%
Joni Ernst 2%
Pete Ricketts 1%
Matt Bevin 1%
Rob Portman 1%
Pat Toomey 1%
Tom Kean Jr. 1%
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« Reply #24 on: September 05, 2017, 01:29:49 pm »

Ted
April 4, 2023


“It's time to bring back conservative values. That's why I'm proud to announce that I'm running for President of the United States”

Ted Cruz was the first candidate to announce in 2016. And, again, he's the first to announce in 2024. In his speech, Cruz outlined his conservative credentials and the need to bring back true constitutional conservatism in the White House. He's currently polled third, behind Paul Ryan and Mike Pence. We can imagine that he'll replicate his 2016 strategy: going all over again on Iowa in order to gain momentum for the other contests, including Super Tuesday, where a number of southern states will vote.

A few days later, it was Matt Bevin's turn. The Governor of Kentucky announced that he's running for President. He wants to run as a new kind of conservative, who comes from the Rust Belt and that's able to reasonate well among populist voters, the “Trumpian” part of the GOP electorate. As Cruz, Bevin needs to rise and do well in Iowa.

During a joint appareance on CNN, both Ohio Senator Rob Portman and Pennsylvania Senator Pat Toomey announced that they will not be running for President, but said that there was need for a candidate that brings back true republican common sense in Washington.

During a town hall in Ames, Iowa Senator Joni Ernst announced that she'll not be running for President, but that will “actively campaign for whoever is the republican nominee in order to bring back Iowa values to the White House”.

Iowa Republican Caucuses Poll
Mike Pence 17%
Ted Cruz 13%
Paul Ryan 10%
Scott Walker 6%
Tom Cotton 4%
Justin Amash 3%
Carly Fiorina 3%
Matt Bevin 3%
John Kasich 2%
Pete Ricketts 2%
Cory Gardner 2%
Ben Sasse 2%
Nikki Haley 2%
Rick Scott 1%
Charlie Baker 1%
Tom Kean Jr. 0%
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