Fresh Faces

[Senator Cris]

Tom
May 2, 2023

The third republican candidate to announce was Arkansas Senator Tom Cotton. He's considered a rising star, can appeal to the conservative base and is strong on foreign policy. His strategy is very similar to Cruz's one: his first target is a good result in Iowa, then Super Tuesday, where a number of southern states will vote: Alabama, his home state of Arkansas, Georgia, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Texas.

There's another rising star running: it's Colorado Senator Cory Gardner. He has been compared to Marco Rubio, we'll see if he'll be able to do better than the Florida Senator during the primaries. Gardner wants to run as a new kind of republican. He comes from a state that soundly rejected Trump's GOP and Gardner looks as the right profile to gain back some support from minorities and from the West. His strategy consists in good results in the first three contests, a victory in neighboring Nevada and then capitalize on the momentum.

Nevada Republican Caucuses Poll
Paul Ryan 14%
Mike Pence 10%
Ted Cruz 8%
Cory Gardner 6%
Nikki Haley 6%
Scott Walker 4%
Justin Amash 3%
Ben Sasse 3%
John Kasich 3%
Tom Cotton 2%
Carly Fiorina 2%
Charlie Baker 2%
Pete Ricketts 1%
Rick Scott 1%
Matt Bevin 1%
Tom Kean Jr. 0%

[Senator Cris]

Ben
May 25, 2023

Another Senator first elected in 2014 (as Cotton and Gardner), another rising star is running for President. It's Nebraska Senator Ben Sasse. He was a strong opponent of Trump back in 2016 and mulled a primary challenge to former President Trump in 2020, but then decided to not go for it. He wants to run as a new kind of conservative. His message could reasonate well among Iowa and New Hampshire voters.

One week later, it was the Charlie Baker's turn. The Governor of Massachusetts announced his bid for president in a rally in Manchester, New Hampshire, and that's a clue about the Baker's strategy: going all over New Hampshire, gain a great result, possibly a victory, in order to became the establishment's favourite at the expense of Ryan.

One governor and one former governor, in the days following Baker's announcement, announced that they are not running for President: it's Tom Kean Jr. of New Jersey, who backed Baker, and former Ohio Governor and two-time presidential candidate John Kasich, who didn't endorse a candidate but said kind words about Baker's bid for the presidency.

New Hampshire Primary Poll
Paul Ryan 19%
Charlie Baker 14%
Mike Pence 8%
Justin Amash 6%
Rick Scott 4%
Ben Sasse 4%
Nikki Haley 3%
Ted Cruz 3%
Cory Gardner 3%
Scott Walker 2%
Carly Fiorina 2%
Matt Bevin 1%
Tom Cotton 1%
Pete Ricketts 1%

[Senator Cris]

Justin
June 10, 2023

The seventh candidate to announce was Justin Amash, the congressman from Michigan. He's ready to take the role of Ron and Rand Paul as the new libertarian hero. He hopes to do better than Rand in 2016. He's pushing in three early states: his objectives are good results in Iowa and expecially New Hampshire and then a strong showing in a state like Nevada where his message could reasonate well.

“Damn. I announced just yesterday, hoping to gain attention and momentum, and now he's announcing today? Damn.”

The day after Amash's announcement, Speaker of the House Paul Ryan announced his candidacy during a rally in his home state of Wisconsin. Ryan is currently the establishment pick, while Charlie Baker hopes to scratch this status. Right now, Ryan is leading in 3 of the 4 early states, all but South Carolina. If he will be able to win Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada, then he'll be the nominee. But if for some reasons he'll not be able to win those states because of the competition of other candidates, he'll be in trouble.

“No, I'm not running. I'm ready to endorse you.”

Just a few minutes before his announcement, Ryan received a call from the Governor of his home state, Scott Walker. He announced that he's not running for President. Looks like Walker didn't want to have a competition with a fellow Wisconsinite.

[Senator Cris]

Rick
June 24, 2023

The ninth candidate to announce was Florida Governor Rick Scott. He announced his candidacy during a rally in Jacksonville, Florida. He's considered very close to Trump and wants to run as the populist candidate. His focus is on New Hampshire, a state won by Donald Trump during the republican primary, where he hopes to do well.

Scott will have to face competition from other candidates close to Trump world, including former Vice President Pence, who announced his candidacy a few days later.

Pence wants to appeal to the Trumpian base, with strong credentials as Trump's Vice President for four years, but also he is well viewed by the establishment and the donors. Also he has strong conservative credentials and he can play well that with the conservative base, as the most recent polls are showing: he's ahead in Iowa, a state considered very friendly for Pence, and is in leading in national polls among very conservative voters.