Non-political 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Megathread

[Beet]

This is the real threat to national security. If we spent a fraction of the money we do on military, border patrol, and the drug war as we did on preventing and handling natural disasters, many lives could be saved.

[Sirius_]

Invest 92L is now expected to form into a tropical storm and bring rain to the Carolina coastline.

[Koharu]

Hey, this is the non-political thread, guys.

That picture of the nursing home absolutely breaks my heart. I'm so glad they were rescued. Ugh, these poor people. I'm hoping that maybe after the immediate threat is over, I can find a way to volunteer to help with the clean-up. This is going to be a monumental task.

[ltomlinson31]

The death toll is up to 8 now .

There also appears to be rotation in the center of the storm, so it appears to be getting stronger again.

[Beet]

The reservoirs are still rising. Overflow is becoming inevitable at this point.

This these 1940s-style dams break, it will make Hurricane Katrina look like high tide on a calm summer evening.

[Doimper]

The reservoirs are still rising. Overflow is becoming inevitable at this point.

This these 1940s-style dams break, it will make Hurricane Katrina look like high tide on a calm summer evening.

Weren't they releasing some water to prevent that from happening?

[Beet]

The reservoirs are still rising. Overflow is becoming inevitable at this point.

This these 1940s-style dams break, it will make Hurricane Katrina look like high tide on a calm summer evening.

Weren't they releasing some water to prevent that from happening?

They are releasing like 4000 acre-gallons (the max), and its filling up with like 42,000 acre-gallons in the same amount of time.

[GlobeSoc]

The reservoirs are still rising. Overflow is becoming inevitable at this point.

This these 1940s-style dams break, it will make Hurricane Katrina look like high tide on a calm summer evening.

Weren't they releasing some water to prevent that from happening?

They are releasing like 4000 acre-gallons (the max), and its filling up with like 42,000 acre-gallons in the same amount of time.

When would the disaster happen?

[Reaganfan]

To put Hurricane Harvey's Cat 4 landfall in some perspective:

- Harvey is the first hurricane to hit Texas since "Ike" in 2008.
- Harvey is the first major hurricane (Cat 3,4,5) to hit the U.S. since "Wilma" in 2005.
- Harvey is the first Category 4 hurricane to hit the U.S. since "Charley" in 2004.
- Harvey is the first major hurricane to hit Texas since "Bret" in 1999.
- Harvey is the first Category 4 hurricane to hit Texas since "Carla" in 1961.

In another word, Harvey is the first Cat 4 for the U.S. since George W. Bush's first term, the first major hurricane for Texas since Bill Clinton's second term and the first Cat 4 for Texas since John F. Kennedy was in the White House.

The United States has been exceptionally lucky in recent years to avoid hits from Category 4 or 5 hurricanes.

Cat 4/5 U.S. strikes from 1926-1969 (43 years)

"Great Miami"  - 1926
"Okeechobee" - 1928
"Freeport" - 1932
"Labor Day" - 1935 (Cat 5 - Strongest ever in USA. 892 mb pressure, 185 mph winds)
"Homestead" - 1945
"Palm Beach" - 1947
"SW Florida" - 1948
"SE Florida" - 1949
"King" - 1950
"Hazel" - 1954
"Gracie" - 1959
"Donna" - 1960
"Carla" - 1961
"Camille" - 1969 (Cat 5 - Second strongest ever in USA - 900 mb pressure, 175 mph winds)

Cat 4/5 U.S. strikes from 1970-2017 (47 years)

"Hugo" - 1989
"Andrew" - 1992 (Cat 5 - Third strongest ever in USA - 922 mb pressure, 165 mph winds)
"Charley" - 2004
"Harvey" - 2017

We've been incredibly lucky to have seen as few Cat 4 or Cat 5 U.S. landfalls in the last forty years as we saw the the forty years that preceded.

Indeed, many storms achieve Cat 4 or 5 strength over water, only to weaken to Cat 2 or 3 storms prior to landfall. For example, Hurricane Katrina weakened quickly in the 12 hrs prior to landfall from a Cat 5 to a Cat 3.

Recent storms that were forecast to maintain Cat 4 or 5 strength at U.S. landfall, but weakened:

Opal 1995 (Was Cat 4, weakened to Cat 3)
Bret 1999 (Was Cat 4, weakened to Cat 3)
Lili 2002 (Was Cat 4, weakened to Cat 1)
Frances 2004 (Was Cat 4, weakened to Cat 2)
Ivan 2004 (Was Cat 4, weakened to Cat 3)
Dennis 2005 (Was Cat 4, weakened to Cat 3)
Katrina 2005 (Was Cat 5, weakened to Cat 3)
Rita 2005 (Was Cat 5, weakened to Cat 3)
Gustav 2008 (Was Cat 4, weakened to Cat 2)

We've been lucky. No two ways about it.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

To put Hurricane Harvey's Cat 4 landfall in some perspective:

- Harvey is the first hurricane to hit Texas since "Ike" in 2008.
- Harvey is the first major hurricane (Cat 3,4,5) to hit the U.S. since "Wilma" in 2005.
- Harvey is the first Category 4 hurricane to hit the U.S. since "Charley" in 2004.
- Harvey is the first major hurricane to hit Texas since "Bret" in 1999.
- Harvey is the first Category 4 hurricane to hit Texas since "Carla" in 1961.

In another word, Harvey is the first Cat 4 for the U.S. since George W. Bush's first term, the first major hurricane for Texas since Bill Clinton's second term and the first Cat 4 for Texas since John F. Kennedy was in the White House.

The United States has been exceptionally lucky in recent years to avoid hits from Category 4 or 5 hurricanes.

Cat 4/5 U.S. strikes from 1926-1969 (43 years)

"Great Miami"  - 1926
"Okeechobee" - 1928
"Freeport" - 1932
"Labor Day" - 1935 (Cat 5 - Strongest ever in USA. 892 mb pressure, 185 mph winds)
"Homestead" - 1945
"Palm Beach" - 1947
"SW Florida" - 1948
"SE Florida" - 1949
"King" - 1950
"Hazel" - 1954
"Gracie" - 1959
"Donna" - 1960
"Carla" - 1961
"Camille" - 1969 (Cat 5 - Second strongest ever in USA - 900 mb pressure, 175 mph winds)

Cat 4/5 U.S. strikes from 1970-2017 (47 years)

"Hugo" - 1989
"Andrew" - 1992 (Cat 5 - Third strongest ever in USA - 922 mb pressure, 165 mph winds)
"Charley" - 2004
"Harvey" - 2017

We've been incredibly lucky to have seen as few Cat 4 or Cat 5 U.S. landfalls in the last forty years as we saw the the forty years that preceded.

Indeed, many storms achieve Cat 4 or 5 strength over water, only to weaken to Cat 2 or 3 storms prior to landfall. For example, Hurricane Katrina weakened quickly in the 12 hrs prior to landfall from a Cat 5 to a Cat 3.

Recent storms that were forecast to maintain Cat 4 or 5 strength at U.S. landfall, but weakened:

Opal 1995 (Was Cat 4, weakened to Cat 3)
Bret 1999 (Was Cat 4, weakened to Cat 3)
Lili 2002 (Was Cat 4, weakened to Cat 1)
Frances 2004 (Was Cat 4, weakened to Cat 2)
Ivan 2004 (Was Cat 4, weakened to Cat 3)
Dennis 2005 (Was Cat 4, weakened to Cat 3)
Katrina 2005 (Was Cat 5, weakened to Cat 3)
Rita 2005 (Was Cat 5, weakened to Cat 3)
Gustav 2008 (Was Cat 4, weakened to Cat 2)

We've been lucky. No two ways about it.

A category 5 storm weakened to category 3 overnight like Katrina probably tends to be stronger than a storm that was at its maximum of category 3. But everyone but the Bush administration knew that New Orleans was a sitting duck for a major hurricane. A straight up category 5 would have been insane. I remember seeing New Orleans dodge a bullet with Hurricane Ivan in 2004, but obviously it wasn't so lucky in 2005.

[pbrower2a]

Houston should have been better prepared for a Category 3 hurricane  than New Orleans. Texas and Louisiana have different political cultures.  But this said, I can think of no city  being prepared for so much rain in so short a time as Houston is getting. No city in Florida, most of which has topography similar to Greater Houston. Not San Antonio, Austin, Dallas, or Fort Worth. San Francisco, San Diego, or Seattle? Definitely not in such hilly terrain.  Los Angeles? The mountains surrounding LA would focus floodwaters like a lens would focus sunlight. Washington DC? New York City? Such rainfall would demonstrate what those cities were before they were cities -- swamps. Boston or Baltimore? No. Philadelphia? Forget it.  Chicago? Detroit? Cleveland? Milwaukee? If the Gulf of Mexico can't serve as a buffer for heavy rainfall in Houston, then the much smaller Great Lakes can't. New Orleans proved how unsuited it is for a hurricane in 2005, which is best described as "not at all".  The only defense I could see of places like Phoenix, Denver, Atlanta, or Indianapolis is that cities so far inland would never get such torrential rainfall. 

[Koharu]

Bodies of water aren't a buffer. Land is. The prairie that Houston is built on is "made" to absorb torrential amounts of water. However, because it's been paved over, it can't do its job. This is why drying up and paving over wetlands and large tracts of land is extremely dangerous. We need wetlands, prairies, and other natural filters to handle torrential rain. The more these features are covered in non-permeable pavement, the worse flooding in that area gets. The larger the city (and thus the farther out pavement goes), the more the problem compounds. Houston's sprawl is working against it here.

Here's a really interesting article on the issue that is specifically about Houston.

[The Dowager Mod]

Non political thread

[Crumpets]

Houston should have been better prepared for a Category 3 hurricane  than New Orleans. Texas and Louisiana have different political cultures.  But this said, I can think of no city  being prepared for so much rain in so short a time as Houston is getting. No city in Florida, most of which has topography similar to Greater Houston. Not San Antonio, Austin, Dallas, or Fort Worth. San Francisco, San Diego, or Seattle? Definitely not in such hilly terrain.  Los Angeles? The mountains surrounding LA would focus floodwaters like a lens would focus sunlight. Washington DC? New York City? Such rainfall would demonstrate what those cities were before they were cities -- swamps. Boston or Baltimore? No. Philadelphia? Forget it.  Chicago? Detroit? Cleveland? Milwaukee? If the Gulf of Mexico can't serve as a buffer for heavy rainfall in Houston, then the much smaller Great Lakes can't. New Orleans proved how unsuited it is for a hurricane in 2005, which is best described as "not at all".  The only defense I could see of places like Phoenix, Denver, Atlanta, or Indianapolis is that cities so far inland would never get such torrential rainfall. 

In 2006, we had a series of torrential rain storms that resulted in the house behind us losing its yard and driveway, which slid down the hill, swept up our neighbor's yard, our yard, and carried them all down the hill into our other neighbor's yard, as well as flooding all our basements. I just looked it up, and that was 16 inches of rain over the course of nearly a month. I can't possibly imagine 50+ inches over just a few days.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

A levee breached and now Houstonians are being told to evacuate.

[Crumpets]

A levee breached and now Houstonians are being told to evacuate.

This is fast approaching worst-case scenario, and we still have a whole week to go even before the storm stops. It's crazy looking back on it that Katrina only lasted as a hurricane for about 40 hours after landfall, and only about a day after that before it was completely gone.

[J. J.]

A levee breached and now Houstonians are being told to evacuate.

This is fast approaching worst-case scenario, and we still have a whole week to go even before the storm stops. It's crazy looking back on it that Katrina only lasted as a hurricane for about 40 hours after landfall, and only about a day after that before it was completely gone.

Most of the bayous are going down.

[jimrtex]

Venezuela, enemy of the U.S., offered $5 million in aid to Harvey victims

There are a lot of Venezuelan emigres in Houston (particularly in the Katy area) and Citgo (which is owned by the Venezuelan national oil company is headquartered in Houston. Citgo contributed $500,000 to Trump's inauguration.

[SoLongAtlas]

Chemical plant pops and smoke (possible explosions later) as of this morning

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-nation/wp/2017/08/30/texas-town-under-emergency-evacuation-as-flooded-chemical-plant-nears-explosion/

[RINO Tom]

Just donated to the bank charity fund for it ... the news clips are so sad.

[SoLongAtlas]

Irma's predicted to reach Cat 4 by next Thursday. Below is the spaghetti prediction model:



https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/903258615221510149

The chances of the US getting hit again are unfortunately high if this model holds true and Irma holds to a center tack.

[ltomlinson31]

Irma's predicted to reach Cat 4 by next Thursday. Below is the spaghetti prediction model:



https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/903258615221510149

The chances of the US getting hit again are unfortunately high if this model holds true and Irma holds to a center tack.

Wow, I just saw that this storm is already a Category 2. It's already expected to intensify to a Category 3 in 12 hours.

[SoLongAtlas]

The latest reports have it as a Cat 4 guaranteed, it prob will be a Cat 5 given the warm waters or if it stays over water longer.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Wow, this could be really bad.  Let's hope it takes one of those recurving tracks.

[GlobeSoc]

could this become a general 2017 atlantic hurricane thread if we're going to be talking about Irma here?