Non-political 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Megathread

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Stores in town are already running out of supplies and had customers all day freaking out which got me freaking out, checked the models and Ventusky and TWC, forecasted to get up to 70 MPH winds and gusts to 100 if the models hold up.

[Deblano]

I just hope Irma doesn't hit Virginia too hard, if at all....

[ProgressiveCanadian]

Just stregthened 10mph over the last few hours, now 140mph.

[Frodo]

I just hope Irma doesn't hit Virginia too hard, if at all....

We might need some of the extra rain, though:



http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

[Frodo]

Here's the current track, pending an update in about a quarter-of-an-hour:

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/threat-increasing-cuba-florida-intensifying-irma

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[Frodo]

Seems Irma looks likely to either go up the west coast of Florida, or head just offshore until it hits the panhandle -in which case Pensacola and/or Mobile will really need to watch out given how the models keep pushing the northward turn of this hurricane further west with each run:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SS-3cM8BmJE

[GeorgiaModerate]

Irma is now a category 5 hurricane with 175 mph winds.  The forecast track has it heading toward the Florida Straits.

[Dr. Arch]

Irma is now a category 5 hurricane with 175 mph winds.  The forecast track has it heading toward the Florida Straits.

My parents live in Puerto Rico still. I'm so worried. This is a monster.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Irma is now a category 5 hurricane with 175 mph winds.  The forecast track has it heading toward the Florida Straits.

My parents live in Puerto Rico still. I'm so worried. This is a monster.

Hoping for the best for them, and all in the path of the storm.

[Strudelcutie4427]

Irma is now a category 5 hurricane with 175 mph winds.  The forecast track has it heading toward the Florida Straits.

Just saw them show the models on the news. Looks like irmas gonna go west into the straights then take a sharp hook north right toward Miami. By this point, we need to be praying for a hit on northern Cuba to knock it down a few notches before it gets to Florida. One "positive" though it's not gonna sit like Harvey did

[ltomlinson31]

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http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/051200.shtml

[ajc0918]

From what I've seen, people are already very nervous. I'm in the Tampa area and many grocery stores and hardware stores are already out of water/batteries/generators/etc. Many plan on restocking but most people are taking this storm seriously.

Depending on if/when evacuations need to occur, the roads will be jammed. Hopefully if evacuations are needed they will quickly reroute the south bound highway lanes going north so more people can get out of the way.

[JA]

People here in the Jacksonville area don't seem too concerned, at least not yet. But my family and I are ready to evacuate if need be. We've usually gotten pretty lucky here, so I'm hoping our luck continues.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

By wind speed, Irma is now the 5th strongest Atlantic hurricane on record (and the second straight year with a Cat 5 after a pretty long drought)

[GeorgiaModerate]

By wind speed, Irma is now the 5th strongest Atlantic hurricane on record (and the second straight year with a Cat 5 after a pretty long drought)

We've also had a long drought of major hurricanes striking the continental U.S.  The last one before Harvey was Ike in September 2008.  Now it looks like we're about to have two within a month.

[ltomlinson31]

Irma has winds up to 185 mph, which ties it for the second fastest sustained winds ever recorded (5 mph behind Allen).

[ajc0918]

Both Miami-Dade and Monroe counties will begin evacuations tomorrow.

[Ye We Can]

Hurricane Irma's maximum sustained winds now up to 185 mph; apparently the strongest winds ever recorded in an open-ocean Atlantic storm.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Jose has formed behind Irma; likely to reach Hurricane strength by the end of the week.

Tropical Storm Katia is also likely to form in the Gulf of Mexico in the next few days.

Very active.

[Dr. Arch]

I can't stop worrying about my family... Climate change, my friends

[Strudelcutie4427]

I can't stop worrying about my family... Climate change, my friends

It's peak hurricane season and the conditions are usually perfect this time of the year. Irma was large enough coming off Africa that she had her own moisture field. No climate change doesn't have anything to do with it. Irma is not the strongest of all time. Not even close yet. Wilma was 882 mb. Hurricane seasons cycle up and down. Remember there was 2005 which had Katrina then 2006 was incredibly in active. Just like 2012 had sandy them 2013 legitimately had only 2 hurricanes that only reached cat 1. There are active years that go nuts and inactive ones that nothing happens. Look up 1933 and 1886s hurricane seasons for instance. And those were likely way more active since there was no satellite to see storms out to sea. No "global warming" then. And remember, there are longer multidecadal cycles of relative activity where we have been in an active period since 1995 that will likely last until 2025 and 2035. The 20s to the 50s were very active then the 60s to 90s were much more quiet

[Dr. Arch]

I can't stop worrying about my family... Climate change, my friends

It's peak hurricane season and the conditions are usually perfect this time of the year. Irma was large enough coming off Africa that she had her own moisture field. No climate change doesn't have anything to do with it. Irma is not the strongest of all time. Not even close yet. Wilma was 882 mb. Hurricane seasons cycle up and down. Remember there was 2005 which had Katrina then 2006 was incredibly in active. Just like 2012 had sandy them 2013 legitimately had only 2 hurricanes that only reached cat 1. There are active years that go nuts and inactive ones that nothing happens. Look up 1933 and 1886s hurricane seasons for instance. And those were likely way more active since there was no satellite to see storms out to sea. No "global warming" then. And remember, there are longer multidecadal cycles of relative activity where we have been in an active period since 1995 that will likely last until 2025 and 2035. The 20s to the 50s were very active then the 60s to 90s were much more quiet

Being from PR, I'm perfectly well acquainted with how hurricanes work. Climate change increases the propensity of conditions for more extreme weather, not the existence of it. You can read some of the thousands of scientific articles on it.

[BudgieForce]

I think climate change reduced the amount of hurricanes?

[JA]

I think climate change reduced the amount of hurricanes?

No. Not every year will have more hurricanes than the preceding year(s), but what climate change does is increase is the probability of the number of tropical cyclones developing and their potential strength by producing conditions more favorable for their development. One variable is water temperatures; an increasingly warm climate translates into warmer waters and that is a necessary energy source for tropical cyclone formation. By increasing water temperatures in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico, for example, you not only potentially extend the tropical season, but also provide greater fuel for stronger cyclones. The warmer the water = the greater energy potential. But there are other factors as well, such as wind shear, fronts, and dry/moist atmosphere, which can be affected by changes not only in the climate of the tropics but within the polar regions as well.

[Reaganfan]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ASKFHeeFlkA