Non-political 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Megathread

[Frodo]

Another storm has formed, Nate, and it's projected path has it hitting the Mississippi Delta region as a hurricane on Sunday.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/114308.shtml?cone#contents

I hope it makes it up here relatively intact -we need that rain. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

There seems to be considerable uncertainty in the models at this point.  It looks like landfall could be anywhere along the northern Gulf Coast.

[Ye We Can]

Category 1 hurricane will impact Gulf Coast tomorrow. It's really booking it toward the coast. Could be rough as there hasn't been much time to prepare.

[Alabama_Indy10]

We’re looking at 4-5 inches of rain and 50-60 mph wind gusts where I live.

[Dr. Arch]

We’re looking at 4-5 inches of rain and 50-60 mph wind gusts where I live.

Good stay-at-home weather

[JA]

It's now expected to be a Category 2 Hurricane upon landfall at about 105mph around 7 PM CST. Interestingly, its projected forecast is remarkably close to Hurricane Katrina's.

[JA]

The Weather Channel just had a live video of a waterspout moving onshore in Orange Beach, Alabama and straight into the dense part of the city.

[NewYorkExpress]

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/hurricane-ophelia-is-headed-for-an-unlikely-place----ireland-2017-10-13

Hurricane Ophelia appears headed for Ireland...

[riceowl]

That's crazy.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Very rare, but not unprecedented.  https://irishweatheronline.wordpress.com/2015/10/28/blast-from-the-past-hurricane-debbie-1961/

[Mike88]

Category 3 Hurricane Ophelia passing through the south islands of Azores:

[GlobeSoc]

Is this the 2004 to 2018's 2005, or are there meteorological factors preventing that?

[YE]

Is this the 2004 to 2018's 2005, or are there meteorological factors preventing that?

Seems to happen once every AMO cycle. 1932/1933, 1886/1887, and 2004/2005 featured a landfall-heavy season and then an extremely busy one the following year.

[Blue3]

so category-3 Hurricane Ophelia is on its way to IRELAND

[Strudelcutie4427]

Is this the 2004 to 2018's 2005, or are there meteorological factors preventing that?

Seems to happen once every AMO cycle. 1932/1933, 1886/1887, and 2004/2005 featured a landfall-heavy season and then an extremely busy one the following year.

Ironically, this is the same list of names that 2005 used besides Dennis, Irene, Katrina, Rita, Stan, and Wilma which all got retired

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

Is this the 2004 to 2018's 2005, or are there meteorological factors preventing that?

Seems to happen once every AMO cycle. 1932/1933, 1886/1887, and 2004/2005 featured a landfall-heavy season and then an extremely busy one the following year.

Ironically, this is the same list of names that 2005 used besides Dennis, Irene, Katrina, Rita, Stan, and Wilma which all got retired

Interestingly enough the last four times now this set has been used (1999, 2005, 2011, 2017) have all been above average seasons activity-wise.

[scutosaurus]

Hurricane Ophelia has decreased in intensity to a Category 1 storm (https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/17L_intensity_latest.png), and is currently in the process of an extratropical transition.



From the satellite image, Ophelia has lost its eye, and seems to be acquiring many extratropical characteristics at a quick rate. Chances are it'll no longer be considered tropical by the next NHC advisory.

[scutosaurus]

A new disturbance has formed in the Caribbean off the coast of Nicaragua. All major models (the most recent Euro in particular) show it developing, possibly into a hurricane, or even a major hurricane. If this comes to pass, it will be named Philippe. If it intensifies into a hurricane, 2017 will become tied with several other years as the season with the third most hurricanes (11). If it intensifies into a major hurricane, it will be the seventh major hurricane of the season, tying the record set in 2005 for the most major hurricanes in a season.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

A new disturbance has formed in the Caribbean off the coast of Nicaragua. All major models (the most recent Euro in particular) show it developing, possibly into a hurricane, or even a major hurricane. If this comes to pass, it will be named Philippe. If it intensifies into a hurricane, 2017 will become tied with several other years as the season with the third most hurricanes (11). If it intensifies into a major hurricane, it will be the seventh major hurricane of the season, tying the record set in 2005 for the most major hurricanes in a season.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

This disturbance has become Tropical Depression 18 and is expected to become Tropical Storm Philippe later today. Will likely cross over Cuba and hit the southern tip of Florida.