ME-02: Poliquin in denial
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  ME-02: Poliquin in denial
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Author Topic: ME-02: Poliquin in denial  (Read 64638 times)
I’m not Stu
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« Reply #25 on: August 27, 2017, 02:43:16 AM »
« edited: August 27, 2017, 02:47:16 AM by ERM64man »

Poliquin's seat is one of those seats that Dems NEED to pick-up if they have ANY shot at winning the house.

Not really.   It's very rural and extremely white.   I wouldn't call this a prime pickup opportunity.  

Rural New England whites =/= other rural whites.  Come on man.

And still Northern Maine, Northern New Hampshire, and most eastern county of Vermont (Essex) swung rater heavily to Trump. So, i wouldn't call them "liberal heaven"... Some other areas - yes..
They're not extremely liberal at all, but they are elastic. They could flip. The NRCC thinks Poliquin is vulnerable.

This indicates Trump's approval rating in ME-02 might have dropped since he won the presidency and the district.
I guess it kinda falls in line with Trump being -14 in Maine in Gallup. That can't be just ME-1. He'd have to be at 75% disapproval there for the statewide numbers to align like that
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Shameless Lefty Hack
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« Reply #26 on: August 27, 2017, 03:03:50 AM »
« Edited: August 27, 2017, 11:12:10 AM by Shameless Bernie Hack »

Poliquin's seat is one of those seats that Dems NEED to pick-up if they have ANY shot at winning the house.

Not really.   It's very rural and extremely white.   I wouldn't call this a prime pickup opportunity.  

I mean, swinging to trump implies there was somewhere to swing *from* in 2012. So New England #WWC are already ahead of say, KS #WWC.

Rural New England whites =/= other rural whites.  Come on man.

And still Northern Maine, Northern New Hampshire, and most eastern county of Vermont (Essex) swung rater heavily to Trump. So, i wouldn't call them "liberal heaven"... Some other areas - yes..
EDIT: late night atlas glitch, did *not* meant to empty quote lol.

Doesn't need to be a liberal heaven to win. Swinging to Trump means there was somewhere to swing from in 2012, which puts NE ahead of say, Kansas, Nebraska, etc. People need to stop treating the 2016 election as some sort of grand indicator of long term political loyalties - Trump and Clinton were both unique candidates with historically weird coalitions for their party.
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I’m not Stu
ERM64man
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« Reply #27 on: August 27, 2017, 03:10:38 AM »
« Edited: August 27, 2017, 03:21:23 AM by ERM64man »

Jared Golden is a strong contender. ME-02 could be flip in 2018 with the right candidate.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #28 on: August 27, 2017, 04:01:51 AM »

Jared Golden is a strong contender. ME-02 could be flip in 2018 with the right candidate.

Could be, of course. But not in must flip category.... There are even better targets for Democrats. This would be about 25-30th district to flip.
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Figueira
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« Reply #29 on: August 27, 2017, 09:21:49 AM »

No one called this a "liberal heaven." If it was, Poliquin wouldn't be there.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #30 on: August 27, 2017, 09:50:30 AM »
« Edited: August 27, 2017, 11:04:39 AM by smoltchanov »

No one called this a "liberal heaven." If it was, Poliquin wouldn't be there.

It was relatively solid Democratic seat since 1994 until Poliquin's win in 2014. And 2 previous Republican congressmembers from this district were Olympia Snowe and William Cohen - both much more moderate then Poliquin.... Who, BTW, defeated in 2014 primary state Senator Kevin Raye, who was more moderate.. So, i think, it confirms that district turned right at least in the last years. We shall see - for how long...
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #31 on: August 27, 2017, 10:41:59 AM »

Now that Jared Golden is running, this is toss-up tilt-D (closer to lean D than tossup).
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GlobeSoc
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« Reply #32 on: August 27, 2017, 10:56:46 AM »

Tossup. Generic ballot alone would suggest an even race, but I was wary of actually putting it in the tossup column due to what I thought was Poliquin's strength.
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #33 on: August 27, 2017, 11:46:30 AM »

Tossup. Generic ballot alone would suggest an even race, but I was wary of actually putting it in the tossup column due to what I thought was Poliquin's strength.

Poliquin isn't a great fit for the district, nor was he ever that popular.  The Democrats ran a candidate the past two cycles who was very well-connected within the state party establishment (hence Cain getting so much establishment support in her primary match against Jackson to the point that he simply couldn't compete even though he'd almost certainly have won the GE), but who was also an absolutely horrible fit for this district.  Golden seems like a strong recruit and I imagine we'll see a pretty solid swing here back to the Democrats.  I think we pick this seat up even if 2018 sees far fewer Democratic gains than expected (which I don't think will be the case).  Poliquin was on borrowed time imo and it was really just a question of when the ME Dems got their act together and recruited a solid candidate.
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I’m not Stu
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« Reply #34 on: August 27, 2017, 03:01:56 PM »

Libertarian candidate Brian Kresge is in. Might he be a spoiler?
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Nyvin
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« Reply #35 on: August 27, 2017, 05:53:22 PM »

Poliquin's seat is one of those seats that Dems NEED to pick-up if they have ANY shot at winning the house.

Not really.   It's very rural and extremely white.   I wouldn't call this a prime pickup opportunity. 

Rural New England whites =/= other rural whites.  Come on man.

Not saying they "Can't" win ME-2,  just saying that ME-2 isn't like the first district that would flip, or even part of the first dozen district to flip honestly.   

In the future I would really expect this district to move away from the Democrats, while there are plenty of seats around the country that will move toward them.

Hopefully in 2030 Maine will go down to an at-large district and we can forget those people are even up there.
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PoliticalShelter
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« Reply #36 on: August 27, 2017, 08:06:49 PM »

Poliquin's seat is one of those seats that Dems NEED to pick-up if they have ANY shot at winning the house.

Not really.   It's very rural and extremely white.   I wouldn't call this a prime pickup opportunity. 

Rural New England whites =/= other rural whites.  Come on man.

Not saying they "Can't" win ME-2,  just saying that ME-2 isn't like the first district that would flip, or even part of the first dozen district to flip honestly.   

In the future I would really expect this district to move away from the Democrats, while there are plenty of seats around the country that will move toward them.

Hopefully in 2030 Maine will go down to an at-large district and we can forget those people are even up there.

Yes, because treating those voters as ignorant peasants is definitely a winning strategy for a state whose 3 electoral votes (post-2030), 2 Senate seats and an at-large House seat, of which it's entirely plausible to think of a scenario where Maine could mean the difference in a tight Electoral College or a tied Senate.
All coming from a poster who is from New Hampshire. Because of course.
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I’m not Stu
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« Reply #37 on: August 27, 2017, 08:08:56 PM »
« Edited: August 27, 2017, 08:12:04 PM by ERM64man »

Actual policy that produces results with a strong candidate is the best strategy, by winning new places that trend D while attempting to broaden the coalition by trying to regain lost votes, especially with actual pro-working class policies. Hostile elitist attitudes toward working class voters is a problem in the Democratic party right now.
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MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #38 on: August 27, 2017, 09:54:18 PM »
« Edited: August 27, 2017, 09:59:25 PM by Al Franken 2020 »

It's crazy some hedge fund manager from NYC is holding down one of the most WWC districts in the country. Tells you how hard it is to read these voters.
Emily Cain was Hillary Clinton-lite. It's not like Clinton is popular in the second.

Anyway, short of Troy Jackson, Golden is the Democrats' best chance. Jackson is poised to become Senate President, which is an extremely important role in Maine, so I'd understand if he'd want to stay out.

Golden's pretty much a carbon copy of Mike Michaud with the added benefit of being heterosexual.
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I’m not Stu
ERM64man
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« Reply #39 on: August 27, 2017, 10:11:47 PM »

Losing Waterville to ME-01 after redistricting also helped ME-02 trend GOP.
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Holmes
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« Reply #40 on: August 27, 2017, 10:27:15 PM »

It's crazy some hedge fund manager from NYC is holding down one of the most WWC districts in the country. Tells you how hard it is to read these voters.
Emily Cain was Hillary Clinton-lite. It's not like Clinton is popular in the second.

Anyway, short of Troy Jackson, Golden is the Democrats' best chance. Jackson is poised to become Senate President, which is an extremely important role in Maine, so I'd understand if he'd want to stay out.

Golden's pretty much a carbon copy of Mike Michaud with the added benefit of being heterosexual.

Ah that added benefit
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Nyvin
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« Reply #41 on: August 27, 2017, 10:39:41 PM »

Poliquin's seat is one of those seats that Dems NEED to pick-up if they have ANY shot at winning the house.

Not really.   It's very rural and extremely white.   I wouldn't call this a prime pickup opportunity. 

Rural New England whites =/= other rural whites.  Come on man.

Not saying they "Can't" win ME-2,  just saying that ME-2 isn't like the first district that would flip, or even part of the first dozen district to flip honestly.   

In the future I would really expect this district to move away from the Democrats, while there are plenty of seats around the country that will move toward them.

Hopefully in 2030 Maine will go down to an at-large district and we can forget those people are even up there.

Yes, because treating those voters as ignorant peasants is definitely a winning strategy for a state whose 3 electoral votes (post-2030), 2 Senate seats and an at-large House seat, of which it's entirely plausible to think of a scenario where Maine could mean the difference in a tight Electoral College or a tied Senate.

Democrats can still win the statewide vote (easily) through the area that's ME-1, especially since that's the growing part of the state.    There's really no future to speak of for Dems in ME-2.   

If they win in 2018 it's borrowed time.
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I’m not Stu
ERM64man
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« Reply #42 on: August 27, 2017, 10:46:59 PM »
« Edited: August 27, 2017, 10:49:23 PM by ERM64man »

I don't know if the GOP trend in ME-02 will continue or reverse. It's hard to say at this point. ME-02 is fairly elastic.
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MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #43 on: August 27, 2017, 11:11:06 PM »
« Edited: August 28, 2017, 12:03:03 AM by Al Franken 2020 »

Losing Waterville to ME-01 after redistricting also helped ME-02 trend GOP.
LePage (ex-Waterville mayor) had a hand in that.

It's crazy some hedge fund manager from NYC is holding down one of the most WWC districts in the country. Tells you how hard it is to read these voters.
Emily Cain was Hillary Clinton-lite. It's not like Clinton is popular in the second.

Anyway, short of Troy Jackson, Golden is the Democrats' best chance. Jackson is poised to become Senate President, which is an extremely important role in Maine, so I'd understand if he'd want to stay out.

Golden's pretty much a carbon copy of Mike Michaud with the added benefit of being heterosexual.

Ah that added benefit
Mike Michaud was gay. He lost his district (albeit when he ran for governor) after he came out. If he ran for his old seat again he'd lose. Look at this map:


That's the Maine marriage equality referendum map from 2012. The time same-sex marriage won. The second district is much more religious, and much less tolerant of gay people. Golden being straight and male helps him here.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #44 on: August 28, 2017, 04:45:35 AM »

It's crazy some hedge fund manager from NYC is holding down one of the most WWC districts in the country. Tells you how hard it is to read these voters.
Emily Cain was Hillary Clinton-lite. It's not like Clinton is popular in the second.

Anyway, short of Troy Jackson, Golden is the Democrats' best chance. Jackson is poised to become Senate President, which is an extremely important role in Maine, so I'd understand if he'd want to stay out.

Golden's pretty much a carbon copy of Mike Michaud with the added benefit of being heterosexual.

Ah that added benefit

In THIS district - absolutely. It's not San Francisco or Seattle...
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GoldenMainer
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« Reply #45 on: August 28, 2017, 10:46:14 AM »

Poliquin's seat is one of those seats that Dems NEED to pick-up if they have ANY shot at winning the house.

Not really.   It's very rural and extremely white.   I wouldn't call this a prime pickup opportunity. 

Rural New England whites =/= other rural whites.  Come on man.

Not saying they "Can't" win ME-2,  just saying that ME-2 isn't like the first district that would flip, or even part of the first dozen district to flip honestly.   

In the future I would really expect this district to move away from the Democrats, while there are plenty of seats around the country that will move toward them.

Hopefully in 2030 Maine will go down to an at-large district and we can forget those people are even up there.

Yes, because treating those voters as ignorant peasants is definitely a winning strategy for a state whose 3 electoral votes (post-2030), 2 Senate seats and an at-large House seat, of which it's entirely plausible to think of a scenario where Maine could mean the difference in a tight Electoral College or a tied Senate.

Democrats can still win the statewide vote (easily) through the area that's ME-1, especially since that's the growing part of the state.    There's really no future to speak of for Dems in ME-2.   

If they win in 2018 it's borrowed time.

That's a losing strategy. ME-02's large GOP shift overshadows the fact that ME-01 also trended GOP last year, especially in inland areas.

This interactive map from the Portland Press Herald is a great reference: http://www.pressherald.com/2016/11/13/interactive-map-see-northern-maine-swung-right-election-day-2016/

Some examples: 

Sanford   Obama- 57.7%   Clinton- 44.6%
Lebanon  Obama- 43.5%   Clinton- 30.2%
Newfield  Obama- 50.7%   Clinton- 33.8%
Waterboro Obama- 50.8%  Clinton- 35.4%
Sebago     Obama- 50.1%   Clinton- 38.1%
Biddeford  Obama- 65.9%   Clinton- 55.8%
OOB         Obama- 62.2%    Clinton- 54.8%

People paint ME-01 with a broad brush that we're just "northern Massachusetts" but outside of Portland, the area is very white and rural. Inland areas are very rednecky, tons of people hunt here (gun issues will backfire), and there are struggling old mill towns dealing with heroin issues like Sanford and Biddeford that are prime for Republican pickups. Coastal areas like York, Kennebunk, Cape Elizabeth, Portland, and Yarmouth can likely keep the congressional seat blue, but they won't be enough to always keep statewide seats blue. The 2014 governors race is a great example of that. Candidates like Golden/Jackson are a great example of what's needed in BOTH of Maine's districts. Less lawyers, more blue collar types who can speak to people who don't reside in wealthy coastal towns and city centers.
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Figueira
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« Reply #46 on: August 28, 2017, 11:30:23 AM »

^Yep. I think ME-01 will keep voting Democratic for tbe foreseeable future, but not necessarily by a wide enough margin to keep the entire state our color, especially if ME-02 trends even more R. Maine is the most rural state in the country--we're not going to win it on the backs of Portland.

And we need Maine. We need small states.
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Figueira
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« Reply #47 on: August 28, 2017, 12:19:32 PM »

Losing Waterville to ME-01 after redistricting also helped ME-02 trend GOP.
LePage (ex-Waterville mayor) had a hand in that.

It's crazy some hedge fund manager from NYC is holding down one of the most WWC districts in the country. Tells you how hard it is to read these voters.
Emily Cain was Hillary Clinton-lite. It's not like Clinton is popular in the second.

Anyway, short of Troy Jackson, Golden is the Democrats' best chance. Jackson is poised to become Senate President, which is an extremely important role in Maine, so I'd understand if he'd want to stay out.

Golden's pretty much a carbon copy of Mike Michaud with the added benefit of being heterosexual.

Ah that added benefit
Mike Michaud was gay. He lost his district (albeit when he ran for governor) after he came out. If he ran for his old seat again he'd lose. Look at this map:


That's the Maine marriage equality referendum map from 2012. The time same-sex marriage won. The second district is much more religious, and much less tolerant of gay people. Golden being straight and male helps him here.

Eh, at the same time, it's been a few years since then, attitudes are quickly changing on that. I think if Michaud runs and loses, it'll be because he's a Democrat, not because he's gay.
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Roblox
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« Reply #48 on: August 28, 2017, 02:25:36 PM »

If Troy Jackson doesn't run, this guy seems ok. The thing is, Emily Cain and Hilary Clinton were pretty much the worst possible fits for this district, so I have a feeling poliquin may be more vulnerable than meets the eye.
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I’m not Stu
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« Reply #49 on: August 28, 2017, 03:05:09 PM »
« Edited: August 28, 2017, 03:12:42 PM by ERM64man »

Uh, if Democrats just concede the voters in northern Maine and lose them 2-1 while only winning ME-1 by 60-40, that's a loss statewide. It'd be malpractice to essentially cede the people of northern Maine without a fight. And while ME-1 is growing, that doesn't mean that the people in Northern Maine can't get to a point where they feel so ignored that they start voting like southern whites. If that DOES happen, Maine will become a Republican-leaning state.

Fortunately, the Democratic Party isn't so inept as to write off these voters as ignorant Republican rednecks, and it looks like they found someone who can win.
Democrats should contest ME-02. Republicans always challenge Grace Napolitano in CA-32 even though they have no chance in this heavily Democratic district. ME-02 is far more Democratic than CA-32 is Republican. Republicans don't concede these heavily Democratic districts, so Democrats should definitely not concede ME-02.
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