ME-02: Poliquin in denial

[MAINEiac4434]

Soon

https://twitter.com/mesecofstate/status/1061307351016333315?s=21

[MAINEiac4434]

  Any feeling on whether rcv had a big impact on whether the independent candidates got significantly more votes than they otherwise would have because their supporters weren't worried about wasting their votes?  Also, why no Green candidate?

Independents are always likely to get a decent amount of the vote here, but I do imagine a not insignificant amount of people felt comfortable voting for Bond an her #resistance campaign knowing they could Golden second.

Henry John Bear failed to get the signatures to end up on the ballot. Greens haven’t run a major candidate since Pat LaMarche for Governor in 2006.

[Torrain]

Update: 95% of precincts reporting, with all ballots accounted by the SoS.
Poliquin 46.2%
Golden 45.5%

Just waiting on last totals (19 precincts untotalled) and verification before we head to RCV.

https://twitter.com/MESecOfState/status/1061317724230598661

[Torrain]

And that's work done for the week. Thought we might get another update before the end of the day, but I guess there's not enough data to add any more precincts to the count.

https://twitter.com/MESecOfState/status/1061361827299364864

[ProudModerate2]

Maine's ranked-choice voting to decide the winner here should be interesting.
I would imagine that those who voted for an independent in the original election, would mostly vote for the Democratic candidate as a second choice.

I found this article on the latest news for ME-02 ...
http://www.sunjournal.com/bruce-poliquin-campaign-goes-to-court-to-stop-ranked-choice-counting/

To be continued.
(Are we following this unique election in this thread, or did someone create another thread on this topic? I didn't see another one, that is why I posted here.)

[MAINEiac4434]

Maine's ranked-choice voting to decide the winner here should be interesting.
I would imagine that those who voted for an independent in the original election, would mostly vote for the Democratic candidate as a second choice.

I found this article on the latest news for ME-02 ...
http://www.sunjournal.com/bruce-poliquin-campaign-goes-to-court-to-stop-ranked-choice-counting/

To be continued.
(Are we following this unique election in this thread, or did someone create another thread on this topic? I didn't see another one, that is why I posted here.)

I’ve been posting updates in the “election night live thread”.

[ProudModerate2]

Maine's ranked-choice voting to decide the winner here should be interesting.
I would imagine that those who voted for an independent in the original election, would mostly vote for the Democratic candidate as a second choice.

I found this article on the latest news for ME-02 ...
http://www.sunjournal.com/bruce-poliquin-campaign-goes-to-court-to-stop-ranked-choice-counting/

To be continued.
(Are we following this unique election in this thread, or did someone create another thread on this topic? I didn't see another one, that is why I posted here.)

I’ve been posting updates in the “election night live thread”.

Oh OK.
Can I recommend that we post updates for this specific race, here in this thread.
Don't you think that it will garner more Atlas attention, and make it easier to follow (and find) if it were all here?

[ProudModerate2]

I found an interesting YouTube video titled "How ranked choice voting could tip the scales in Maine's tight 2nd District," if anyone is interested.

Here is the link: https://youtu.be/3crCblDahy8

-----------------------------------

For a more detailed video that explains exactly how Ranked-Choice Voting in Maine works, check-out this interesting YouTube video put-out by the Maine Department of the Secretary of State ...

Link here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xcGGH7E_vNk

[Torrain]

RCV count by county according to SOS's Office

- Androscoggin County
- Aroostook County
- Franklin County
- Hancock County
- Kennebec County
- Oxford County
- Penobscot County Complete
- Piscataquis County Underway
- Somerset County
- Waldo County
- Washington County To be counted

[NewYorkExpress]

If Poliquin's lawsuit to end ranked choice voting gets all the way to the U.S Supreme Court, how will the justices rule?

I think it'll be 5-4 in favor of Poliquin (similar reasoning to Bush v. Gore, just change the names of the justices involved...with the exception of Clarence Thomas), but what do you think?

[Antonio the Sixth]

If Poliquin's lawsuit to end ranked choice voting gets all the way to the U.S Supreme Court, how will the justices rule?

I think it'll be 5-4 in favor of Poliquin (similar reasoning to Bush v. Gore, just change the names of the justices involved...with the exception of Clarence Thomas), but what do you think?

There is no rational legal case for Poliquin. There won't be 4 Justices to even take up the case.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/MESecOfState/status/1062459456318005249

There's around 40K votes left to count

[Figueira]

https://twitter.com/MESecOfState/status/1062459456318005249

There's around 40K votes left to count

Is this counting the first choice options, or figuring out the whole RCV thing?

[Figueira]

Is there still a possibility that Golden gets a plurality (making a lawsuit pointless)?

If Poliquin's lawsuit to end ranked choice voting gets all the way to the U.S Supreme Court, how will the justices rule?

I think it'll be 5-4 in favor of Poliquin (similar reasoning to Bush v. Gore, just change the names of the justices involved...with the exception of Clarence Thomas), but what do you think?

While I could see the SCOTUS overturning RCV in future elections (I'm sure they could find some excuse if they felt like it) I don't think they're petty enough to overturn the will of the voters (who just voted under the assumption that it was RCV) for the sake of one House seat. I could be wrong.

[Skill and Chance]

Is there still a possibility that Golden gets a plurality (making a lawsuit pointless)?

If Poliquin's lawsuit to end ranked choice voting gets all the way to the U.S Supreme Court, how will the justices rule?

I think it'll be 5-4 in favor of Poliquin (similar reasoning to Bush v. Gore, just change the names of the justices involved...with the exception of Clarence Thomas), but what do you think?

While I could see the SCOTUS overturning RCV in future elections (I'm sure they could find some excuse if they felt like it) I don't think they're petty enough to overturn the will of the voters (who just voted under the assumption that it was RCV) for the sake of one House seat. I could be wrong.

I kind of think they will intentionally avoid any decisions that could be seen as radical until 2021, because they (at least Roberts and probably Kavanaugh) don't want to risk mainstream Democrats running on court packing in 2020.

Also, whatever the other Justices decide, the most plausible outcome for Thomas is a concurrence upholding RCV on "states can set whatever election laws they please" grounds.  He has written before that he would overturn the 1950's-60's OMOV decisions.  Would be wild if he ends up being decisive like in the NC gerrymandering case.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I've heard (from Nathan) that LePage needs to certify the election's results? What happens if he refuses to?

That's a far more credible threat than the SCOTUS stepping in, since they need at least the pretense of a coherent legal case and Poliquin hasn't provided that.

[ProudModerate2]

https://twitter.com/MESecOfState/status/1062459456318005249

There's around 40K votes left to count

Is this counting the first choice options, or figuring out the whole RCV thing?

Very good question.
Is the current recount just concerning the original, election night vote (to re-check and re-determine if someone or no one, reached the 50%+1 mark)?
Or is what is happening now the "RCV Round 1" accounting of votes?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

https://twitter.com/MESecOfState/status/1062459456318005249

There's around 40K votes left to count

Is this counting the first choice options, or figuring out the whole RCV thing?

Very good question.
Is the current recount just concerning the original, election night vote (to re-check and re-determine if someone or no one, reached the 50%+1 mark)?
Or is what is happening now the "RCV Round 1" accounting of votes?

I'm not sure anyone knows.  The ME SoS probably believes they are being transparent with all these "updates", but they seem totally unhelpful to me.

Even though Poliquin's legal arguments are totally worthless, IMO Maine has completely screwed this up in court of public opinion. 

Instant run-offs should be instant!  They should have published a complete accounting of all second and third place votes simultaneous to reporting the first place votes on election night.  They should not be reporting -any- first place votes without also reporting the run-off results. 

[MAINEiac4434]

Based on how it worked in the primary: this is the formal counting of results from every county in the race.

The ranked choice calculation will be made immediately after all the ballots are formally counted in Augusta.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

SCOTUS can't strike it down without also striking down Georgia and Louisiana's runoffs. So they won't.

[ProudModerate2]

Based on how it worked in the primary: this is the formal counting of results from every county in the race.

The ranked choice calculation will be made immediately after all the ballots are formally counted in Augusta.

So what you are saying, is that what is happening now, is just a recount of the original (first choice), election night count?
Is that correct?

[MAINEiac4434]

Based on how it worked in the primary: this is the formal counting of results from every county in the race.

The ranked choice calculation will be made immediately after all the ballots are formally counted in Augusta.

So what you are saying, is that what is happening now, is just a recount of the original (first choice), election night count?
Is that correct?

I believe so, yes. This is done after every election, but it's received extra attention in the ranked choice era.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I've heard (from Nathan) that LePage needs to certify the election's results? What happens if he refuses to?

That's a far more credible threat than the SCOTUS stepping in, since they need at least the pretense of a coherent legal case and Poliquin hasn't provided that.

[Figueira]

I've heard (from Nathan) that LePage needs to certify the election's results? What happens if he refuses to?

That's a far more credible threat than the SCOTUS stepping in, since they need at least the pretense of a coherent legal case and Poliquin hasn't provided that.

Couldn't Mills just certify it once she gets in?

[Antonio the Sixth]

I've heard (from Nathan) that LePage needs to certify the election's results? What happens if he refuses to?

That's a far more credible threat than the SCOTUS stepping in, since they need at least the pretense of a coherent legal case and Poliquin hasn't provided that.

Couldn't Mills just certify it once she gets in?

Does she take office before or after the new Congress is seated?