ME-02: Poliquin in denial

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R: Maine. A friend of mine at NRCC says Poliquin is in real trouble and that Trump is not popular in the 2nd district.

I found it.

Doesn't say anything about Poliquin's popularity.

Anyway, Tilt R, I suppose. Golden seems good unless Jackson jumps in.

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No one called this a "liberal heaven." If it was, Poliquin wouldn't be there.

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^Yep. I think ME-01 will keep voting Democratic for tbe foreseeable future, but not necessarily by a wide enough margin to keep the entire state our color, especially if ME-02 trends even more R. Maine is the most rural state in the country--we're not going to win it on the backs of Portland.

And we need Maine. We need small states.

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Losing Waterville to ME-01 after redistricting also helped ME-02 trend GOP.

LePage (ex-Waterville mayor) had a hand in that.

It's crazy some hedge fund manager from NYC is holding down one of the most WWC districts in the country. Tells you how hard it is to read these voters.

Emily Cain was Hillary Clinton-lite. It's not like Clinton is popular in the second.

Anyway, short of Troy Jackson, Golden is the Democrats' best chance. Jackson is poised to become Senate President, which is an extremely important role in Maine, so I'd understand if he'd want to stay out.

Golden's pretty much a carbon copy of Mike Michaud with the added benefit of being heterosexual.

Ah that added benefit

Mike Michaud was gay. He lost his district (albeit when he ran for governor) after he came out. If he ran for his old seat again he'd lose. Look at this map:


That's the Maine marriage equality referendum map from 2012. The time same-sex marriage won. The second district is much more religious, and much less tolerant of gay people. Golden being straight and male helps him here.

Eh, at the same time, it's been a few years since then, attitudes are quickly changing on that. I think if Michaud runs and loses, it'll be because he's a Democrat, not because he's gay.

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People keep referring to ME-02 as "Northern Maine" when in fact it's Northern Maine, part of Central Maine, and a little bit of Southern Maine. By definition, it's half the state's population--not something we can laugh off.

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People keep referring to ME-02 as "Northern Maine" when in fact it's Northern Maine, part of Central Maine, and a little bit of Southern Maine. By definition, it's half the state's population--not something we can laugh off.

Absolutely... But your name for district is way too long, BTW...

Not trying to name the district, just accurately describe it.

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People keep referring to ME-02 as "Northern Maine" when in fact it's Northern Maine, part of Central Maine, and a little bit of Southern Maine. By definition, it's half the state's population--not something we can laugh off.

Absolutely... But your name for district is way too long, BTW...

Not trying to name the district, just accurately describe it.

Absolutely agree. "Northern Maine" is used, possibly, for brevity....

If you want brevity, just call it ME-02 or whatever. "Northern Maine" is a small region that's not nearly big enough to be its own district, and a lot of the district's swing is due to places like Bangor, Waterville, and Lewiston, and the small towns in between.

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Can't find anything online-- is Jared Golden Jewish? It sounds like it, from his name. It hurts to say this, but I'm not sure how well that would play in this sort of district

I don't know. Golden can be either a Jewish or non-Jewish name, and Jared was already pretty generic by the time this guy was born.

If he is Jewish, I doubt it would hurt him that much.

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If you want brevity, just call it ME-02 or whatever. "Northern Maine" is a small region that's not nearly big enough to be its own district, and a lot of the district's swing is due to places like Bangor, Waterville, and Lewiston, and the small towns in between.

Waterville is now in ME-01.

Whoops. I wasn't sure about that one.

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https://twitter.com/MESecOfState/status/1062459456318005249

There's around 40K votes left to count

Is this counting the first choice options, or figuring out the whole RCV thing?

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Is there still a possibility that Golden gets a plurality (making a lawsuit pointless)?

If Poliquin's lawsuit to end ranked choice voting gets all the way to the U.S Supreme Court, how will the justices rule?

I think it'll be 5-4 in favor of Poliquin (similar reasoning to Bush v. Gore, just change the names of the justices involved...with the exception of Clarence Thomas), but what do you think?

While I could see the SCOTUS overturning RCV in future elections (I'm sure they could find some excuse if they felt like it) I don't think they're petty enough to overturn the will of the voters (who just voted under the assumption that it was RCV) for the sake of one House seat. I could be wrong.

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I've heard (from Nathan) that LePage needs to certify the election's results? What happens if he refuses to?

That's a far more credible threat than the SCOTUS stepping in, since they need at least the pretense of a coherent legal case and Poliquin hasn't provided that.

Couldn't Mills just certify it once she gets in?

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Ranked Choice is a fouking abomination. It needs to go

What's wrong with it? It gives power to third parties and allows people to state their preferences better.

I'm happy that Golden won, but RCV does not actually give power to third parties. It just appeases people who insist on voting for unelectable third parties. If, say, a left-wing third party actually managed to get more votes than the Democrat, it could result in Republicans winning.