Tossup. Generic ballot alone would suggest an even race, but I was wary of actually putting it in the tossup column due to what I thought was Poliquin's strength.
Poliquin isn't a great fit for the district, nor was he ever that popular. The Democrats ran a candidate the past two cycles who was very well-connected within the state party establishment (hence Cain getting so much establishment support in her primary match against Jackson to the point that he simply couldn't compete even though he'd almost certainly have won the GE), but who was also an absolutely horrible fit for this district. Golden seems like a strong recruit and I imagine we'll see a pretty solid swing here back to the Democrats. I think we pick this seat up even if 2018 sees far fewer Democratic gains than expected (which I don't think will be the case). Poliquin was on borrowed time imo and it was really just a question of when the ME Dems got their act together and recruited a solid candidate.
