ME-02: Poliquin in denial

[GoldenMainer]

Poliquin's seat is one of those seats that Dems NEED to pick-up if they have ANY shot at winning the house.

Not really.   It's very rural and extremely white.   I wouldn't call this a prime pickup opportunity. 

Rural New England whites =/= other rural whites.  Come on man.

Not saying they "Can't" win ME-2,  just saying that ME-2 isn't like the first district that would flip, or even part of the first dozen district to flip honestly.   

In the future I would really expect this district to move away from the Democrats, while there are plenty of seats around the country that will move toward them.

Hopefully in 2030 Maine will go down to an at-large district and we can forget those people are even up there.

Yes, because treating those voters as ignorant peasants is definitely a winning strategy for a state whose 3 electoral votes (post-2030), 2 Senate seats and an at-large House seat, of which it's entirely plausible to think of a scenario where Maine could mean the difference in a tight Electoral College or a tied Senate.

Democrats can still win the statewide vote (easily) through the area that's ME-1, especially since that's the growing part of the state.    There's really no future to speak of for Dems in ME-2.   

If they win in 2018 it's borrowed time.

That's a losing strategy. ME-02's large GOP shift overshadows the fact that ME-01 also trended GOP last year, especially in inland areas.

This interactive map from the Portland Press Herald is a great reference: http://www.pressherald.com/2016/11/13/interactive-map-see-northern-maine-swung-right-election-day-2016/

Some examples: 

Sanford   Obama- 57.7%   Clinton- 44.6%
Lebanon  Obama- 43.5%   Clinton- 30.2%
Newfield  Obama- 50.7%   Clinton- 33.8%
Waterboro Obama- 50.8%  Clinton- 35.4%
Sebago     Obama- 50.1%   Clinton- 38.1%
Biddeford  Obama- 65.9%   Clinton- 55.8%
OOB         Obama- 62.2%    Clinton- 54.8%

People paint ME-01 with a broad brush that we're just "northern Massachusetts" but outside of Portland, the area is very white and rural. Inland areas are very rednecky, tons of people hunt here (gun issues will backfire), and there are struggling old mill towns dealing with heroin issues like Sanford and Biddeford that are prime for Republican pickups. Coastal areas like York, Kennebunk, Cape Elizabeth, Portland, and Yarmouth can likely keep the congressional seat blue, but they won't be enough to always keep statewide seats blue. The 2014 governors race is a great example of that. Candidates like Golden/Jackson are a great example of what's needed in BOTH of Maine's districts. Less lawyers, more blue collar types who can speak to people who don't reside in wealthy coastal towns and city centers.

[GoldenMainer]

http://www.pressherald.com/2017/10/02/lucas-st-clair-enters-race-for-maines-2nd-congressional-district/

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Bolded the part that will make him a liability.

[GoldenMainer]

Why is Golden such a good candidate for rural voters?

Born and raised in Leeds, a rural town & went to college in the district
Served in the military
Worked for Susan Collins on the Homeland Security committee which shows he isn't a "partisan out of touch liberal"
Has worked closely with firefighters and police officers in workers comp legislation and securing funding with FIRE/SAFER grants

Purely on an image basis, he's "one of them". He's a military guy with tats on his arm who grew up in a small town. He isn't a lawyer from the city coming to lecture them.

[GoldenMainer]

Golden raises $240,000 for Quarter 4. None self-funded.

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/954050720394874891

[GoldenMainer]

I haven't seen any of the other campaigns release their numbers. My worry with St. Clair is that he can self-fund.

[GoldenMainer]

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http://www.sunjournal.com/golden-outpaces-democratic-rivals-in-congressional-campaign-fundraising/

[GoldenMainer]

Tim Rich dropped out and endorsed St. Clair (blech)

https://twitter.com/Lucasstclair/status/968120817103114240

Interesting how Rich tried portraying himself as a Berniecrat yet he didn't endorse the other Berniecrat in the race (Fulford). St. Clair seems to be the least Bernieish of them all. I think it's about hard feelings and stopping Golden from winning on Rich's part since he's gone public about how he feels the party has favored Golden.

In other news, Golden's website now has an issues and endorsements page for anyone interested.

[GoldenMainer]

Golden raises about $272,000 for the quarter.

https://twitter.com/golden4congress/status/985624512506064896

[GoldenMainer]

Yeah, it's good not great. I was hoping for closer to $400,000. I guess it's to be expected though when he isn't getting the level of attention some other Dem candidates are this cycle.

He is the highest fundraiser in the primary though. St. Clair raised $217,000. Fulford only raised $61,000 and Olson $14,000.

[GoldenMainer]

https://twitter.com/OurRevolution/status/990666792384286722

Our Revolution endorses Jonathan Fulford. This primary just got more interesting.

[GoldenMainer]

who wins, as of now?

It's hard to pinpoint but if I had to guess, I'd say Golden is still out front by a bit. His profile as a young marine vet who actually has legislative experience is the strongest background compared to his competitors. Financially, he's in the best shape. He has about 1,000 more followers on Facebook than St. Clair & Fulford and his posts get more likes (if that means anything). He's a good speaker and has endorsements from state reps/senators. And even though he's not the Our Revolution choice, his stances are still quite progressive (he supports universal healthcare and importing medicine from Canada/negotiating for lower prices, overturning Citizens United, raising the minimum wage, universal pre-K, etc). Thus with ranked choice voting in place, he might be a second choice for Fulford voters.

I don't think St. Clair & Fulford are too far behind though. Even though I don't care for him, St. Clair's done a good job having a lot of events across the district and his social media game is on point. The Our Revolution endorsement might provide a boost for Fulford but I don't think he's the best speaker (and I was a Bernie voter). Craig Olsen isn't a factor.

[GoldenMainer]

could st clair win the ge, considering he has an amazing ground op?

He could be swept in with a wave but I think he'd have trouble holding the seat. Fair or not, Republicans will paint him as a rich mommy's boy from Portland & Seattle (he grew up in CD2 but moved from Seattle to Portland, and then back into the district to run). Since this is a rather poor district, it'd be stupid of Republicans not to go that route. I also find St. Clair's policy positions to be vague (he's heavy on the environment angle and light on everything else).

[GoldenMainer]

Golden spent the day bashing St. Clair over ads put out by a St. Clair-aligned group, but without the candidate's name on them.

From his Facebook page:

"Jared Golden for Congress
4 hrs ·
Today I held a press conference to discuss the secretive group, Maine Outdoor Alliance, which has already spent $300,000 in the ME-02 Democratic primary. The source of their money is unknown. Their donors are secret. Their intentions, however, are clear: they want to buy the Democratic nomination for my opponent, Lucas St. Clair.

The organization is run by St. Clair's best man at his wedding, yet his campaign says "we don't know who is doing this." Doesn't pass the straight face test if you ask me.

I am calling on all Democrats in Maine to reject secretive outside organizations like the Maine Outdoor Alliance, who hide their donors from the people of Maine. This is the only way Democrats can bring about real change: by holding ourselves and our own campaigns to the higher standards we are fighting for."

Good for Jared. This gives me confidence he can knock Poliquin around too.

[GoldenMainer]

Golden got the Maine AFL-CIO endorsement today.

[GoldenMainer]

Meanwhile, this was a letter to the editor in the Bangor Daily News yesterday.

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http://bangordailynews.com/2018/05/23/opinion/letters/thursday-may-24-2018-st-clair-is-poliquin-light-hills-for-house-district-97-herbig-for-maine-senate/

[GoldenMainer]

What do you think of the negative ads hammering St. Clair? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K0yq9Bl0hy4

I hope Golden wins, but is there any backfire potential?

I think this was a lose-lose situation for Golden. If he doesn't respond to the dark money group pouring money into the district to boost St. Clair, he can't play on a level playing field and he gets railroaded. Because of this "Maine Outdoor Alliance", St. Clair doesn't have to spend as much time fundraising and can travel all over this district holding meet and greets- and it's a large rural district, so being able to go everywhere is a huge advantage. This group wasn't only running tv ads, it has been sending out tons of mailers for St. Clair as well.

If Golden does respond, he gets a bit of criticism for going negative on a competitor and St. Clair can get praised for running a positive campaign (gag me). There's been a bit of that but there has also been some people coming to Golden's defense. I have no idea how this one ends but I am proud of Golden for standing up for himself and calling bs on bs.

[GoldenMainer]

The race is tilt St. Clair right now, imho.

I get that feeling as well. I felt Golden was sitting comfortably until the dark money stuff. He focused on it a bit too much instead of highlighting issues and what he accomplished in the Maine House. It's backfired on him a bit especially since St. Clair (Richie Rich) is now doing this passive aggressive "I'm remaining soooo positive" bit. I'm still rooting for Golden over Richie Rich but he really needs to finish this week out strong.

If there was ever a race for Our Revolution to tilt a race in their favor, it'd be this one. Golden has made labor/unions a huge part of his campaign and he supports Medicare for All. Of course they're out in left field though.

[GoldenMainer]

Maine Democrats have a habit of nominating the blandest most centrist candidates who run lifeless campaigns and then just blame third parties as a cover for why they can't get their crap together.

[GoldenMainer]

I wouldn't classify Emily Cain as a bold progressive. She was an Ivy League educated bleh Bangor liberal who ran your garden variety standard Democratic campaign. I'm not sure what issues she was very bold on.

Being progressive on certain economic issues is appealing in ME-02- campaign finance, labor/unions, healthcare. You don't want to take hugely liberal stances on guns and immigration though. Golden is playing it well. He's heavily focusing on Citizens United, unions, and Medicare for All and he's steering clear of guns, Colin Kaepernick/national anthem, Black Lives Matter- anything that can be used as red meat for social conservatives.

[GoldenMainer]

Golden has been added to DCCC's Red-to-Blue Program (along with Ojeda).

https://twitter.com/votevets/status/1010172684913860609

[GoldenMainer]

I was interested to see county by county numbers for Emily Cain in 2016 so I did some number crunching using town results to see where Golden needs to improve. These are rough numbers given the fact that ME02 has a lot of tiny towns and unincorporated territories and townships. I also compared Cain's numbers to Clinton's and both of Obama's elections.

Androscoggin County:

Cain- 48.1%
Clinton- 41.4%
Obama 12- 55%
Obama 08- 57%

Golden Benchmark: 54%

Golden grew up in this county (Leeds) and he represents Lewiston in the state house so his name rec. is high. He also destroyed St. Clair in the primary here. His blue collar/union focus should play well in this mill town/rural county.

Aroostook County:

Cain- 41.4%
Clinton- 38.1%
Obama 12- 52.7%
Obama 08- 53.8%

Golden Benchmark: 45%

Cain and Clinton really plummeted given Obama's numbers here. This wasn't one of Golden's strongest areas in the primary but I expect him to do better than Cain. Some of the larger towns like Fort Kent and Madawaska swing D. Hopefully Golden gets Troy Jackson to campaign with him- that'd be a dream team!

Franklin County:

Cain- 46.8%
Clinton- 42.6%
Obama 12- 57.7%
Obama 08- 58.9%

Golden Benchmark: 50%

Golden has a few things working in his favor here. He briefly went to UMaine Farmington (in this county) before enlisting in the military. He should play that up and juice college turnout. State Rep. Tom Saviello, a Republican, has endorsed Golden and he's well respected here and a part-time professor at UMaine Farmington. Even though this is a rural county, it isn't as conservative as other rural counties in the district. I think Golden can do better than 50% here but at least running even is what he needs.

Hancock County:

Cain- 51.3%
Clinton- 50.2%
Obama 12- 57%
Obama 08- 58.7%

Golden Benchmark: 55%

This county includes Mount Desert Island/Bar Harbor, and the more liberal islands mixed in with some rural mainland. Democrats should be energized here and this is one area Golden needs to really run ahead of Poliquin.

Oxford County:

Cain- 47.7%
Clinton- 39%
Obama 12- 55.9%
Obama 08- 56.7%

Golden Benchmark: 52%

Golden spent a lot of time campaigning in towns like Rumford in the primary and I expect that strategy to continue in the general. It's rural but very working class and I expect his pro-union/blue collar/healthcare focus to play very well here.

Penobscot County:

Cain- 44%
Clinton- 40.8%
Obama 12- 50.3%
Obama 08- 51.7%

Golden Benchmark: 47.5%

The rural areas here are more conservative than rural areas in counties to the west (Oxford, Franklin counties). He needs to cut into those margins while juicing turnout in vote-rich Bangor and the college town of Orono (home of University of Maine).

Piscataquis County:

Cain- 37.6%
Clinton- 33.7%
Obama 12- 46.4%
Obama 08- 47%

Golden Benchmark: 40%

This is the most conservative county (it's the only Maine county to vote for McCain in 2008). However, it doesn't have many people. 40% would be a respectable showing and would likely make for less than a 2,000 vote deficit.

Somerset County:

Cain- 39.4%
Clinton- 34.9%
Obama 12- 49.4%
Obama 08- 51.8%

Golden Benchmark: 44%

This county is rural and blue collar like Oxford & Franklin counties but it's a bit more conservative. Golden should have more appeal here than a traditional Democrat given his military background and union focus.

Waldo County:

Cain- 49.4%
Clinton- 46%
Obama 12- 53.8%
Obama 08- 54.8%

Golden Benchmark: 52%

Along with Hancock, this is one of the more liberal areas in the district. It's coastal and contains the city of Belfast. Rep Erin Herbig from Belfast is running for State Senate and she & Jared were apart of the House Majority leadership. Expect them to campaign together here.

Washington County:

Cain- 40.8%
Clinton- 37.1%
Obama 12- 49.5%
Obama 08- 49.5%

Golden Benchmark: 45%

The redheaded stepchild county of Maine and the district. It's one of the poorest areas of Maine and doesn't have as many people living there. A populist message should work well here.

Kennebec County:

This is the one split county in the district. The lines were drawn carefully to exclude Augusta and Waterville from the second district. I don't have previous presidential numbers from the Kennebec County towns in CD2, but Emily Cain received 43.6% of the vote here. Expect Golden to do a few points better. 46/47% would be a good benchmark.

[GoldenMainer]

Do you really think this district has moved that much right since the obama years

I think we can gain some of it back but I don't think we'll be getting Obama numbers there in the near future. Cain & Clinton weren't good fits for this district so seeing Golden's numbers will give us a better idea of where this area stands. Unfortunately, I think Maine Dems have gotten into the habit of relying on Portland/coastal areas too much and have let the rural inland areas get away from them. And their habit of being disconnected from district 2 really shows. Golden hasn't signed on to all of the national gun control measures floating around, but if he does, he completely blows his chance of winning this seat for Dems. District 2 is huge on hunting and guns yet Golden's gotten flack for being in line with his district on this. Too often we have Maine Dems, often from the first district, treating the second district like it's uber-liberal Portland. And it's not going to work. I'm hopeful we can turn it around though.  

[GoldenMainer]

I love golden, maybe my favorite dem this year, but if he loses, hopefully, Michaud or Baldacci snatch it back in 2020 and give coattails upballot.

Have you heard of Troy Jackson? He was a Bernie superdelegate, represents part of Aroostook County in the Maine Senate and is the Senate Minority Leader. He's a logger and very pro-worker pro-union. He was who I was hoping would run before Golden got in, but I love Golden too.

[GoldenMainer]

I love golden, maybe my favorite dem this year, but if he loses, hopefully, Michaud or Baldacci snatch it back in 2020 and give coattails upballot.

Have you heard of Troy Jackson? He was a Bernie superdelegate, represents part of Aroostook County in the Maine Senate and is the Senate Minority Leader. He's a logger and very pro-worker pro-union. He was who I was hoping would run before Golden got in, but I love Golden too.

We got to save Troy for senate 2020! Golden is great as well, a progressive,pro-union, just a pure FF.

Yeeeeesssss! We haven't had a progressive Dem. senator in so long. My body is ready.

[GoldenMainer]

I'm DYING at the tattoo ad. They're so scared of Golden and have nothing substantive to hit him on.