ME-02: Poliquin in denial

[MAINEiac4434]

It's crazy some hedge fund manager from NYC is holding down one of the most WWC districts in the country. Tells you how hard it is to read these voters.

Emily Cain was Hillary Clinton-lite. It's not like Clinton is popular in the second.

Anyway, short of Troy Jackson, Golden is the Democrats' best chance. Jackson is poised to become Senate President, which is an extremely important role in Maine, so I'd understand if he'd want to stay out.

Golden's pretty much a carbon copy of Mike Michaud with the added benefit of being heterosexual.

[MAINEiac4434]

Losing Waterville to ME-01 after redistricting also helped ME-02 trend GOP.

LePage (ex-Waterville mayor) had a hand in that.

It's crazy some hedge fund manager from NYC is holding down one of the most WWC districts in the country. Tells you how hard it is to read these voters.

Emily Cain was Hillary Clinton-lite. It's not like Clinton is popular in the second.

Anyway, short of Troy Jackson, Golden is the Democrats' best chance. Jackson is poised to become Senate President, which is an extremely important role in Maine, so I'd understand if he'd want to stay out.

Golden's pretty much a carbon copy of Mike Michaud with the added benefit of being heterosexual.

Ah that added benefit

Mike Michaud was gay. He lost his district (albeit when he ran for governor) after he came out. If he ran for his old seat again he'd lose. Look at this map:


That's the Maine marriage equality referendum map from 2012. The time same-sex marriage won. The second district is much more religious, and much less tolerant of gay people. Golden being straight and male helps him here.

[MAINEiac4434]

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You go, Tim.

http://dailycaller.com/2017/08/31/maine-dem-states-whiteness-is-bad-news/

[MAINEiac4434]

@Maineiac would you say that Golden is basically a lock in the primary?

Basically a lock. But it's Maine, anything can appen. He's the only one with any elected experience and has the kind of resume that makes rural Democrats salivate. Tim Rich appears to be running as the Berniecrat so that might cause some problems for Golden. St. Clair won't be a problem, though.

[MAINEiac4434]

@Maineiac would you say that Golden is basically a lock in the primary?

Basically a lock. But it's Maine, anything can appen. He's the only one with any elected experience and has the kind of resume that makes rural Democrats salivate. Tim Rich appears to be running as the Berniecrat so that might cause some problems for Golden. St. Clair won't be a problem, though.

You don't think Joe Baldacci, Troy Jackson, or Jeff McCabe could have a chance against the Golden Boy?

Only Jackson.

[MAINEiac4434]

Why is Golden such a good candidate for rural voters?

Born and raised in Leeds, a rural town & went to college in the district
Served in the military
Worked for Susan Collins on the Homeland Security committee which shows he isn't a "partisan out of touch liberal"
Has worked closely with firefighters and police officers in workers comp legislation and securing funding with FIRE/SAFER grants

Purely on an image basis, he's "one of them". He's a military guy with tats on his arm who grew up in a small town. He isn't a lawyer from the city coming to lecture them.

He is pretty much tailor-made for this district. Lucas St. Clair is an out of touch ultralib. Tim Rich is a crazy person. Craig Olson is a nobody.

Why is Golden such a good candidate for rural voters?

Born and raised in Leeds, a rural town & went to college in the district
Served in the military
Worked for Susan Collins on the Homeland Security committee which shows he isn't a "partisan out of touch liberal"
Has worked closely with firefighters and police officers in workers comp legislation and securing funding with FIRE/SAFER grants

Purely on an image basis, he's "one of them". He's a military guy with tats on his arm who grew up in a small town. He isn't a lawyer from the city coming to lecture them.

Democrats should actively recruit more guys like this. Cain was the worst possible fit

Yeah, a Hillary clone was a dreadful choice, and the fact that she was handed the nomination in 2016 is embarrassing.

Had Troy Jackson won the primary in 2014 there's every likelihood he'd be the congressman from Maine's second district right now.

[MAINEiac4434]

A PPP poll has "Generic Dem" up over Poliquin by one point a year out. Golden would be even more appealing to this district than "Generic Dem."

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/918568910219223040

[MAINEiac4434]

Golden raised $104 K in five weeks:

http://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00653816/1187154

Respectable but not stellar

Pretty good for Maine, actually.

[MAINEiac4434]

Openly trans woman Daniele VanHelsing is running against Poliquin as an independent:

http://www.pressherald.com/2018/01/05/transgender-activist-making-run-for-2nd-congressional-district-seat/

[MAINEiac4434]

Openly trans woman Daniele VanHelsing is running against Poliquin as an independent:

http://www.pressherald.com/2018/01/05/transgender-activist-making-run-for-2nd-congressional-district-seat/

potential spoiler for more liberal voters?

There’s also a Green with huge support among the Native communities in the district. Both he and Van Helsing together could gift Poliquin another term.

[MAINEiac4434]

Does anyone know if Emily Cain is running again?  A google search would not yield any conclusive results.

She’s some big shot with Emily’s List now and no longer lives in Maine, so I’d say no.

[MAINEiac4434]

Openly trans woman Daniele VanHelsing is running against Poliquin as an independent:

http://www.pressherald.com/2018/01/05/transgender-activist-making-run-for-2nd-congressional-district-seat/

potential spoiler for more liberal voters?

There’s also a Green with huge support among the Native communities in the district. Both he and Van Helsing together could gift Poliquin another term.

Is Golden not good enough for them? Is there something toxic about his record? If only RCV hadn't been struck down, this wouldn't be problematic.

Not that I know of, other than he’s not necessarily a diehard progressive - Seth amounting is my closest approximation.

Henry John Bear (the Green candidate) just seems to want to make the most of his meaningless party shift now that he’s term-limited in the State House.

[MAINEiac4434]

Openly trans woman Daniele VanHelsing is running against Poliquin as an independent:

http://www.pressherald.com/2018/01/05/transgender-activist-making-run-for-2nd-congressional-district-seat/

potential spoiler for more liberal voters?

There’s also a Green with huge support among the Native communities in the district. Both he and Van Helsing together could gift Poliquin another term.

Is Golden not good enough for them? Is there something toxic about his record? If only RCV hadn't been struck down, this wouldn't be problematic.

RCV is clearly unconstitutional though.

Not if we change the Maine constitution (we will).

[MAINEiac4434]

Openly trans woman Daniele VanHelsing is running against Poliquin as an independent:

http://www.pressherald.com/2018/01/05/transgender-activist-making-run-for-2nd-congressional-district-seat/

potential spoiler for more liberal voters?

There’s also a Green with huge support among the Native communities in the district. Both he and Van Helsing together could gift Poliquin another term.

Is Golden not good enough for them? Is there something toxic about his record? If only RCV hadn't been struck down, this wouldn't be problematic.

RCV is clearly unconstitutional though.

Not if we change the Maine constitution (we will).

"One person, one vote" isn't a problem with the Maine Constitution. (Not that I agree with the analysis finding OPOV is violated by RCV. But I digress.)

The problem is in the wording of who wins elections. Activists are seeking to change the word “plurality” to “majority”.

[MAINEiac4434]

Why doesn't the Green dude just run in the Democratic primary?

Because he'll lose a primary.

[MAINEiac4434]

Why are democrats wasting money on this district I rate Likely Republican? When Their are 23 Clinton-Republican districts that are all more winnable then this district that supported Trump by double-digits.

Please do not pollute threads about my state with your useless drivel.

[MAINEiac4434]

Golden raises $240,000 for Quarter 4. None self-funded.

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/954050720394874891

Pretty good. Any word on how St. Clair did?

[MAINEiac4434]

On the Republican side, Poliquin has raised 2 million dollars and still has 1.93 million on hand.

From PACs, special interests and out of state, which isn’t a good look for this district.

[MAINEiac4434]

Golden's raised the most money out of the Democrats, but still trails Poliquin significantly.

[MAINEiac4434]

Sara Gideon, House Speaker, has endorsed the Golden God.

[MAINEiac4434]

Michaud comeback??? Either way hard not to like golden the god.

Nah, he's not raising any money.

[MAINEiac4434]

Bingo Bruce selling his house in the second district. How stupid can he be?

http://stateandcapitol.bangordailynews.com/2018/03/20/bruce-poliquin-sold-his-family-home-reviving-questions-about-his-2nd-district-residence/

[MAINEiac4434]

Golden is basically a carbon copy of Conor Lamb.

Much easier district to win too. Trump I think was the first Republican to win here since Herb.

Yup, but it gave LePage his best results in 2010 and 2014.

[MAINEiac4434]

Golden raises about $272,000 for the quarter.

https://twitter.com/golden4congress/status/985624512506064896

Oof. I guess it makes sense, though; ME-02 is quite poor.

Also who the hell is giving money to a millionaire.

[MAINEiac4434]

Golden is basically a carbon copy of Conor Lamb.

Much easier district to win too. Trump I think was the first Republican to win here since Herb.

Yup, but it gave LePage his best results in 2010 and 2014.

Isn't that basically assume to happen with every R in every race since the only other district is Solid Blue?

It was a little more nuanced not too long ago. Peter Ciancette actually won ME-01 in his 2002 gubernatorial run but got crushed in CD-02. Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe won CD-01 in all their Senate races, but also CD-02 as well of course.

Cianchette, of course, was from South Portland and Baldacci was the hugely popular Congressman from the 2nd district.