ME-02: Poliquin in denial

[smoltchanov]

Poliquin's seat is one of those seats that Dems NEED to pick-up if they have ANY shot at winning the house.

Not really.   It's very rural and extremely white.   I wouldn't call this a prime pickup opportunity.  

Me too. Democrats must target it, but - with proper candidate  (preferrably working class gun carrying economic populist), not Emily Cain-type person. After all - district swung substantially to (not from) Trump, so it won't be easy, and district is unlikely to be among first to switch allegiance

[smoltchanov]

Maybe Jared Golden or Troy Jackson.

Jackson already tried, IIRC, and seems happy in legislature. So - Golden is, probably,  more likely..

[smoltchanov]

Poliquin's seat is one of those seats that Dems NEED to pick-up if they have ANY shot at winning the house.

Not really.   It's very rural and extremely white.   I wouldn't call this a prime pickup opportunity.  

Rural New England whites =/= other rural whites.  Come on man.

And still Northern Maine, Northern New Hampshire, and most eastern county of Vermont (Essex) swung rather heavily to Trump. So, i wouldn't call them "liberal heaven"... Some other areas - yes..

[smoltchanov]

Jared Golden is a strong contender. ME-02 could be flip in 2018 with the right candidate.

Could be, of course. But not in must flip category.... There are even better targets for Democrats. This would be about 25-30th district to flip.

[smoltchanov]

No one called this a "liberal heaven." If it was, Poliquin wouldn't be there.

It was relatively solid Democratic seat since 1994 until Poliquin's win in 2014. And 2 previous Republican congressmembers from this district were Olympia Snowe and William Cohen - both much more moderate then Poliquin.... Who, BTW, defeated in 2014 primary state Senator Kevin Raye, who was more moderate.. So, i think, it confirms that district turned right at least in the last years. We shall see - for how long...

[smoltchanov]

It's crazy some hedge fund manager from NYC is holding down one of the most WWC districts in the country. Tells you how hard it is to read these voters.

Emily Cain was Hillary Clinton-lite. It's not like Clinton is popular in the second.

Anyway, short of Troy Jackson, Golden is the Democrats' best chance. Jackson is poised to become Senate President, which is an extremely important role in Maine, so I'd understand if he'd want to stay out.

Golden's pretty much a carbon copy of Mike Michaud with the added benefit of being heterosexual.

Ah that added benefit

In THIS district - absolutely. It's not San Francisco or Seattle...

[smoltchanov]

People keep referring to ME-02 as "Northern Maine" when in fact it's Northern Maine, part of Central Maine, and a little bit of Southern Maine. By definition, it's half the state's population--not something we can laugh off.

Absolutely... But your name for district is way too long, BTW...

[smoltchanov]

People keep referring to ME-02 as "Northern Maine" when in fact it's Northern Maine, part of Central Maine, and a little bit of Southern Maine. By definition, it's half the state's population--not something we can laugh off.

Absolutely... But your name for district is way too long, BTW...

Not trying to name the district, just accurately describe it.

Absolutely agree. "Northern Maine" is used, possibly, for brevity....

[smoltchanov]

Why are democrats wasting money on this district I rate Likely Republican? When Their are 23 Clinton-Republican districts that are all more winnable then this district that supported Trump by double-digits.

Not every Democrat agrees with your ratings, probably))))

[smoltchanov]

This is how Trump wins a second term, folks. Republican voters will never vote third party. Democrats will split their votes

Republican voters constantly vote third party. It costs us elections all the time. I would argue that Republican voters are more likely to vote to vote third party than Democratic voters in down ballot races.

Depends on race. On presidential level - yes, especially in the last years. But Republicans like Baker and Scott get a lot of normally Democratic votes in their races, so - in these races more Democrats split their votes then Republican. In last Alabama's Senate race - yes, probably more republicans split.

[smoltchanov]

Yeah, I don’t get why Republicans are getting so worked up over this result, it was always obvious that RCV would help Golden here. Sure, he’s a strong candidate, but beating a flawed incumbent by 1% in a massive Democratic wave doesn’t mean that he won’t be very vulnerable in a more favorable year for Republicans.

I got no doubt we take him out in 2020. I’m just not sure who we run here. I doubt LePage wants to be a congressman

LePage lives in either the first district or Florida in 2020 so...

Garrett Mason is a name to watch. Young, affable, more than conservative enough. He also got more clean elections money than Sweet did in the primary.

But because he’s more religious right than Tea Party or Trumpist, he may struggle if, I dunno, Scott D’Amboise runs.

D'Amboise is a far-right tea-party "constitutional conservative". If such candidate can beat Golden - Democratic perspectives in this district must be extremely bleak.