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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderators: Keyboard Jacobinism, Apocrypha)
  Four More Years - a 2016 Election Timeline
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Poll
Question: Who should Obama choose as his Running Mate?
#1Tim Kaine
#2Julian Castro
#3Tom Vilsack
#4Amy Klobucher
#5Kirsten Gillibrand
#6Al Franken
#7Jeff Merkley
#8John Hickenlooper
#9Martin Heinrich
#10WHO SHOULD TRUMP CHOOSE?
#11Newt Gingrich
#12Ben Carson
#13Chris Christie
#14Mary Fallin
#15Scott Brown
#16Marsha Blackburn
#17Mike Flynn
#18Jeff Sessions
#19Jim Webb
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Author Topic: Four More Years - a 2016 Election Timeline  (Read 32796 times)
LaRouche Lives Forever!
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« Reply #175 on: December 02, 2017, 07:10:50 pm »

Can't wait to see who Huntsman taps as a running-mate.
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« Reply #176 on: December 08, 2017, 07:01:48 am »

July 25th - July 28th, 2016

The Democratic National Convention: Pres. Obama walks out of Philadelphia with a united party

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PHILADELPHIA - Entering the 2016 DNC, President Barack Obama had one goal- uniting the progressive, liberal and moderate bases of the Democratic party, as well as independent voters, behind him as he heads to a clash with Donald Trump in the general election. After a bruising primary against Senator Bernie Sanders and Secretary Hillary Clinton, he needed to reassure and regain the support of the Sanders supporters, and to a lesser extent the Clinton ones as well.

This mission was largely successful. In a diverse DNC, with speakers of all wings of the party and some rousing speeches, Obama managed to present the Democrats as a big-tent party, but one which fights for progressive values at the same time. Post-convention polls showed that over 90% of former Sanders supporters were planning to vote for Obama, and close to 100% of former Clinton supporters were planning to do the same. Let's look at the major events in the convention:

Day 1- The Progressives

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During the 1st night of the DNC, dubbed "Unity", many prominent Democrats gave speeches in support of the party and of President Obama. Noteably, it seems like the heavy guns of the Progressive wing in the party were brought out, with Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) giving the keynote speech, Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) giving a headliner and Senators Sherrod Brown (D-OH) and Jeff Merkley (D-OR), the latter being the only Senator to endorse Sanders during the primary, giving their own speeches. All four are considered identified with the Progressive wing, and all four gave rousing, overwhelming speeches of support for the President. Sanders urged all who voted for him to support Obama, Warren called him "a historic, progressive breakthrough in our political system" and Brown attacked the Republican nominee, saying that "the President is fighting for the little guy- Donald Trump is fighting against the little guy, and for his billionaire friends."

Day 2- Michelle & The Presidents

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Named "Experience", the second night of the DNC featured several very prominent speakers that fired up the crowd. Former President Bill Clinton gave a rousing speech, lauding his wife's former rival as "one of the greatest leaders of this generation". Candidate for the U.S. Senate from Georgia and former State Senator Jason Carter gave a very impressive speech, firing up the crowd, introducing his grandfather, former President Jimmie Carter, who made the effort to arrive to Philadelphia and gave an optimistic speech about the future of the country under President Obama, denouncing Donald Trump's extremist rhetoric. Several other prominent past Democrats, such as former nominee Michael Dukakis, spoke as well. But without a doubt, once again, the headline of the night was the speech given by First Lady Michelle Obama- charismatic, inspiring and rousing, Obama delivered again, making the convention crowd go wild and spurring even more media speculation about the political future of the beloved First Lady.

Day 4- The Running Mates

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The third night of the DNC, called "Hard Work", saw Barack Obama's Vice Presidential choice, Wisconsin Senator Tammy Baldwin, facing her first test- a speech before the DNC. After being introduced by yet another powerful speech from Vice President Joe Biden, Baldwin managed to deliver a strong, energizing appeal to women and the people of middle America, ending her speech with a powerful sentence- "we care about you, we love you, and we're ready to work hard for you!" The speech was praised in the media, and, it seemed, Obama's choice passed the test.
Other speeches given during the night came from Secretary of State John Kerry, who praised Obama's leadership as "stable and calm", and from Independent Businessman and former NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who delivered a sharp rebuke against his fellow businessman: “Donald Trump says he wants to run the country like he runs his business... God help us. I’m a New Yorker, and I know a con when I see one!" However, Bloomberg fell short of endorsing President Obama, leaving the possibility of supporting Jon Huntsman's independent bid, and the speech was critisized by many progressive activists, dampening the night.

Day 5- Mr. President

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In the final night of the DNC, called "Fired Up", President Obama finally gave his long-awaited speech to the convention. Before him spoke two other very prominent Democrats- former Vice President Al Gore, who gave a sharp environmentalist statement contrasting between "the clueless, arrogant rich man who only cares about his profits and thinks climate change is a hoax, and the progressive President who works hard to save the world from this impending doom", and former Secretary Hillary Clinton, who appeared to be giving the farewell speech of her political career by making a ringing endorsement of "our wonderful President" and calling for women to "come out and vote for the only candidate who cares about you and your rights, getting us closer to finally breaking that hardest ceiling." Other noteable speeches during the night came from South Bend Mayor and candidate for Indiania Governor, Pete Buttigieg, who gave a powerful and charismatic address, and from Russ Feingold, the candidate for Wisconsin's Senate seat, who gave yet another appeal to progressives to unite behind President Obama.

The President's speech was, just as expected, one of the best, if not the best, in the convention. The crowd chanted "Four More Years" in ringing voices as the President delivered a rousing, powerful statement: "Contrary to what the Republican nominee is claiming, America is great. America is great, and we're going to keep making it greater, by continuing the work we've been doing for the last eight years. Let's choose progress, not regress, let's choose freedom and equality, not authoritarianism and racism! I'm fired up and ready to go, and work hard for the American people Four More Years!"

Coming out of Philadelphia with a united, energized Democratic Party, Obama bounced up in the polls, recovering from his recent slump. The General election campaign could finally start.

Barack Obama vs Donald Trump (General)
Barack Obama- 52%
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(+4)
Donald Trump- 42%
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(-2)
Undecided- 6%
Img
(-2)
OBAMA +10

Barack Obama vs Donald Trump vs Jon Huntsman vs Gary Johnson vs Jill Stein (General)
Barack Obama- 48%
Img
(+3)
Donald Trump- 37%
Img
(-1)
Jon Huntsman- 7%
Img
(-1)
Gary Johnson- 4%
Img
(+-0)
Jill Stein- 0%
Img
(+-0)
Other/Undecided- 4%
Img
(-1)
OBAMA +11
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« Reply #177 on: December 08, 2017, 04:37:50 pm »

Hype!
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« Reply #178 on: December 15, 2017, 11:08:36 am »

SPECIAL: THE 2008 DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY (Part 1)

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The 2008 Democratic primary was, from the start, widely expected to get crowded. With an unpopular Republican President, the Democrats were thought likely to regain the White House, and so, the horserace started.

Throughout 2006, speculation swirled about the big contenders for the Democratic nomination. Former First Lady and Senator from New York Hillary Clinton, despite her husband's loss in 2000, was widely considered the likely frontrunner, as Bush's unpopularity increased nostalgia for the Clinton years. Other major names that were being continuously floated are 2004 nominee and former Vice President Al Gore (D-TN), 2004 Vice Presidential nominee and former Governor Howard Dean (D-VT), powerful Senator John Kerry (D-MA), 2004 primary third-place finisher and Senator John Edwards (D-NC) former popular Governor Mark Warner (D-VA) and progressive Senator Russ Feingold (D-WI). Freshman Senator Barack Obama (D-IL) was also being speculated, but not included in most public polls as he was initially considered unlikely to run. The polling in late 2006 showed a race centering around three candidates:

Democratic Nomination- November 2006 (General)
Senator Hillary Clinton- 35%
Fmr. VP Al Gore- 22%
Fmr. Governor Howard Dean- 16%
Senator John Kerry- 9%
Senator John Edwards- 5%
Fmr. Governor Mark Warner- 5%
Senator Russ Feingold- 4%
Senator Joe Biden- 2%
Senator Evan Bayh- 1%
Governor Tom Vilsack- 1%
Fmr. Senator Mike Gravel- 0%

Soon enough, the race started to clear as candidates announced one by one. Hillary Clinton, Howard Dean and John Kerry all decided to run. Al Gore, John Edwards, Mark Warner and Russ Feingold declined. Other announced candidates were Senator Chris Dodd (D-CT), Governor Bill Richardson (D-NM) and Representative Dennis Kucinich (D-OH). Meanwhile, Governor Tom Vilsack (D-IA) and Senator Evan Bayh (D-IN) already managed to drop out of the race due to low name recognition and fundraising. But the real shaking of the race came in Februart 10th, 2007, when Barack Obama announced his run. Giving one charismatic speech after the other in crowded rallies, the freshman Senator was gaining an enthusiastic following and generating energy, and soon enough seemed like a serious contender.

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Senator Obama announcing his Presidential bid in Springfield, Illinois

The race continued slowly through 2007, with no major shake-ups on the Republican side. But as time went by, a trend was beginning to be seen- the frontrunners were losing strength and their rivals were gaining. Mainly, Vice Presidential nominee Howard Dean was declining, and Senator Barack Obama was rising. Dean, formerly a progressive favourite, was seen now as "old news", known commodity, who couldn't excite the grassroots as much as he did in 2004. Instead, Obama was the exciting candidate, a fresh, charismatic face. Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton's lead was also eroding, while Senator John Kerry was gaining strength. Obama and Kerry were consistently shining in the debates, and though Hillary Clinton and Howard Dean were performing decently, they were no longer the only stars. The other candidates were unable to gain much traction. The polls reflected this:

Democratic Nomination- November 2006 (General)
Senator Hillary Clinton- 35%
Senator Barack Obama- 21%
Fmr. Governor Howard Dean- 15%
Senator John Kerry- 12%
Senator Joe Biden- 4%
Governor Bill Richardson- 3%
Senator Chris Dodd- 2%
Representative Dennis Kucinich- 2%
Fmr. Senator Mike Gravel- 0%
Undecided- 6%

Going into Iowa, the three leading campaigns, and many of the other contenders, were pegging their hopes on the caucuses. The Clinton campaign was investing heavily in the state, but was pretty confident that the former First Lady's popularity among working-class white voters will give her a victory. Meanwhile, Obama and Dean were heavily campaigning in the Hawkeye State, fiercely contesting the grassroots support, while the Kerry campaign only did limited investment there, focusing on New Hampshire. The results, when they came, sent shockwaves through the Democratic party, an through the nation:

2008 Democratic Iowa Caucues
Senator Barak Obama- 32% ✓
Senator Hillary Clinton- 28%
Fmr. Governor Howard Dean- 21%
Senator John Kerry- 17%
Senator Joe Biden- 5%
Governor Bill Richardson- 5%
Senator Chris Dodd- 2%
Represenative Dennis Kukinich- 1%
Fmr. Senator Mike Gravel- 1%

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Senator Obama gives his victory speech in Iowa

The young Senator from Illinois upset the experienced, popular Hillary Clinton in the Hawkeye state. Senators Biden and Dodd, as well as Governor Richardson, withdrew following their dismal showing. Following the defeat, the Clinton campaign turned in panic to New Hampshire, where they relied on momentum following the Iowa win rather than heavy campaigning. The Dean campaign also swooped on the Granite State, seeing it as possibly their last shot. The results in New Hampshire, however, gave the race yet another shakup:

2008 Democratic New Hampshire Primary
Senator John Kerry- 27% ✓
Senator Hillary Clinton- 26%
Senator Barak Obama- 24%
Fmr. Governor Howard Dean- 23%
Represenative Dennis Kucinich- 0%
Fmr. Senator Mike Gravel- 0%

The Massachusetts Senator saw his efforts and strong debating bear fruit, and emrged on top in the Granite State, and two campaigns were forced to end- Kucinich and Gravel finally dropped out. A strong showing by Clinton kept her campaign afloat, but the Nevada Caucuses were seen as an absolute must-win. Meanwhile, Obama looked beyond, to South Carolina, where he hoped to win by a landslide and establish himself as the frontrunner, and Dean's campaign was on the ropes, but the former Governor swooped into Nevada and vowed to stay at least until Super Tuesday.

After New Hampshire, the non-binding Michigan primary saw a Clinton victory, narrowly defeating the only other candidate on the ballot, Howard Dean. Then, Nevada came and Hillary Clinton finally scored a victory:

2008 Democratic Nevada Caucuses
Senator Hillary Clinton- 34% ✓
Fmr. Governor Howard Dean- 30%
Senator Barak Obama- 21%
Senator John Kerry- 15%

The Democratic race continued, and now seemed more uncertain than ever, with a potential for an ugly, 4-way convention battle, handing Republicans a precious gift in a tough general election for them.
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« Reply #179 on: December 15, 2017, 11:11:54 am »

SPECIAL: THE 2008 DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY (Part 2)

With a victory in Nevada, Hillary Clinton managed to continue fighting on. She campaigned in South Carolina, hoping to do the seemingly impossible and upset Barack Obama, while the other two candidates moved to Super Tuesday. Senator Obama coasted to victory in the Palmetto State, but Clinton's strong showing there ensured her place as a strong contender:

2008 Democratic South Carolina
Senator Barak Obama- 53% ✓
Senator Hillary Clinton- 31%
Senator John Kerry- 10%
Fmr. Governor Howard Dean- 6%

Now, only the non-binding Florida Primary, won by Clinton, was left before Super Tuesday. And then, in February 5th the fateful day arrived, where 23 states and American Samoa voted. Many pundits considered it the most important moment in the campaign, awarding a huge number of delegates. The result seemed  to confirm that the Democratic race was, after all, a battle of two.

States won by Barack Obama:
Alabama
Colorado
Delaware
Georgia
Idaho
Illinois
Kansas
Minnesota
North Dakota
Utah


States won by Hillary Clinton:
American Samoa
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Missouri
New Mexico
Oklahoma
Tennessee


States won by John Kerry:
Colorado
Connecticut
Massachusetts
New Jersey


States won by Howard Dean:
Alaska
Vermont


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The remaining contenders after Super Tuesday

The Super Tuesday contests landed a deathblow on the campaign of Howard Dean, former Vice Presidential nominee. Only winning his homestate and the Alaska Caucuses, Dean was forced to drop out. Meanwhile, KErry managed to keep himself afloat by winning several contests, but it was quite clear that the race was now between Senator Obama and Senator Clinton.

In the February 9th contests, Obama sweeped Louisiana, Nebraska, the Virgin Islands and Washington. A day after, Kerry won a narrow victory in Maine. And two days after, in the 12th, Obama continued with victories in Washington D.C., Virginia and the Democrats Abroad, narrowly defeating Kerry in Maryland as well. In February 19th, Obama won Hawaii and Wisconsin too, and seemed headed for victory. But in March 4th, Clinton rebounded, winning Ohio and Texas, while Kerry won Rhode Island by a tiny margin. Obama followed up with a win in Wyoming 4 days later, and a landslide in Mississippi in March 11th. The Massachusetts Senator decided to stay in until the Pennsylvania Primary in April 22nd, hoping for a victory there, but in the end he came third, behind Obama, with Clinton coming first. Following that, Kerry finally dropped out.

The rest of the race was a battle between Obama and Clinton, with the Illinois Senator increasingly seeming inevitable- he won Indiana and North Carolina in May 6th and Oregon in May 20th, while Clinton won West Virginia in May 13th and Kentucky in the 20th. In June 1st, Obama won Puerto Rico, while in the 3rd, the last day of contests, Obama finally won South Dakota and Montana, securing a plurality of delegates.

As no candidate won an outright majority of delegates, Democrats were shaking in fear at the prospect of a contested convention. But luckily for them, after Dean and Kerry gave firm endorsements of Obama, Clinton decided not to contest the convention, and the Illinois Senator became the first African American presumptive nominee of a major party.


American Samoa
Guam
Northern Mariana Islands
US Virgin Islands
Democrats Abroad


Barack Obama- 38.7%, 1415 pledged delegates, 527 super delegates, total: 1942 delegates ✓
Hillary Clinton- 32.5%, 1240 pledged delegates, 231 super delegates, total: 1471  delegates
John Kerry- 19.1%, 776 pledged delegates, 59 super delegates, total: 835 delegates
Howard Dean- 8.8%, 128 pledged delegates, 6 super delegates, total: 134 delegates
Others- 0.9%, 0 delegates

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Results of the 2008 Democratic Primary

With the primaries done, Barack Obama was ready to go up against the Republican nominee, Senator John McCain, in the General Election. George Bush initially contemplated a run for a third term, but ruled it out after his approvals started to dip. And indeed, with a weakening economy and high disapproval for the Republican President, it seemed likely that Obama would become the first African American President. He chose Senator Joe Biden, who contemplated him with his experience and white working-class appeal, as running mate, and marched into the Democratic National Convention in Denver, Colorad. The rest is history...

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Senator Joe Lieberman gives the 2008 RNC keynote address, supporting McCain and infuriating Democrats

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Controversial Governor Sarah Palin accepts the 2008 Republican Vice Presidential nomination

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Senator John McCain accepts the Republican nomination in a well-received speech

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Hillary Clinton gives the 2008 keynote DNC address, enthusiastically endorsing Obama

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Senator Biden accepts the Vice Presidential nomination in an energetic speech

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Senator Obama gives a rousing nomination acceptance speech in the 2008 DNC
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Cath
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« Reply #180 on: December 15, 2017, 11:38:25 am »

So the 2008 GOP primaries go the same as real life?
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« Reply #181 on: December 15, 2017, 12:09:09 pm »

So the 2008 GOP primaries go the same as real life?

Yep. George Bush made noises of running throughout 2005-2006, but when his approvals started dipping he decided not to do it. The 2008 GOP primaries and the 2008 GE go as in OTL, which means that we're basically done with the specials.
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« Reply #182 on: December 15, 2017, 05:09:39 pm »

August 2nd, 2016

Huntsman announces James Stavridis as running mate on independent ticket, attempts to regain momentum

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SALT LAKE CITY - In a campaign rally that drew a large crowd, bigger than he ever received during his 2012 Presidential run, former Governor Jon Huntsman announced that Retired Admiral James Stavridis, who was a top aide to the Navy Secretary in the Clinton administration and commanded NATO and U.S. forces in Europe, will join him on his independent ticket.

Stavridis lauded Huntsman as "a courageous, principled man with a deep, well-needed understanding of foreign policy and diplomacy." He briefly criticized the Obama administration's foreign policy as "ineffective", but focused most of his fire on the Republican nominee, Donald Trump, who he said would be "disastrous and dangerous" for America's valuable soft power and influence around the world. Huntsman echoed his running mate's statement, adding that they will be "a team of a diplomat and a soldier who will navigate the American ship through the stormy international waters."

The pick is expected to give Huntsman's independent bid some much-needed publicity, as well as a trusted figure to boost his support. It's a move to stop the former Governor's decline in the polls following the Republican and Democratic National Conventions boosting their nominees. While President Obama said that he respects Stavridis and hopes that he will help add to "an intelligent conversation" during the election, Donald Trump lashed out in a tweet, criticized by Democrats and moderate Republicans as disrespectful to the military:

Img
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« Reply #183 on: December 15, 2017, 06:47:20 pm »

Here's to me hoping for chaos and to no one getting 270 votes.
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« Reply #184 on: December 15, 2017, 09:05:53 pm »

so Huntsman is basically just a stronger McMullin?
He's going to win Utah and maybe one other state. Greens should try to kick Stein out, seeing as how she completely died in the polls after the leaked image.
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« Reply #185 on: December 23, 2017, 07:42:28 am »
« Edited: December 23, 2017, 07:44:32 am by Parrotguy »

August 7th, 2016

Despite controversy, Green Party nominates Jill Stein for President, Ajamu Baraka for Vice President

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HOUSTON - Despite a last-minute attempt to defeat her by rivals within the party, who claimed that her dismal polling numbers and unpopularity made her a bad candidate, the Green Party of the United States formally nominated its 2012 nominee, Jill Stein, as Presidential nominee and "human rights" activist Ajamu Baraka as its Vice Presidential nominee.

The convention in Houston was held under the shadow of recent damaging controversy about Stein, as a photo leaked of her sitting on the same table with Russian President Vladimir Putin, withdrawn Trump running mate choice Mike Flynn and others in an RT galla, caused many progressives to accuse her of colluding with Russia to spoil the election for Republican nominee Donald Trump. Though initially considered a possible destination for defecting leftists who feel President Obama is a "corporatist", the photo leak and following controversy prompted progressive favourite Bernie Sanders to say that President Putin is a "terrible, authoritarian figure who cares nothing for human rights or the environment", and allude to Stein by saying that "those who pretend to care about these issues shouldn't support and celebrate his propaganda channel."

Sanders' comment seemed to be the nail in the coffin, and Stein's polling numbers fell down below the 1%, with only diehard Green Party activists remaining to support her. Despite this, the party did not budge and nominated Stein. More controversy arose in the convention itself, as Wikileaks' Julian Assange, who is widely accused of working for Putin and leaking Democratic emails to damage Obama and help Trump, addressed the adoring delegates.

New polling doesn't show any improvement for the Green Party, but it does show the Stavridis running-mate choice aiding Jon Huntsman and raising fears in the RNC that the Independent Conservative former Utah Governor will qualify for the debates:

Barack Obama vs Donald Trump (General)
Barack Obama- 51%
Img
(-1)
Donald Trump- 43%
Img
(+1)
Undecided- 6%
Img
(+-0)
OBAMA +8

Barack Obama vs Donald Trump vs Jon Huntsman vs Gary Johnson vs Jill Stein (General)
Barack Obama- 47%
Img
(-1)
Donald Trump- 35%
Img
(-2)
Jon Huntsman- 10%
Img
(+3)
Gary Johnson- 3%
Img
(-1)
Jill Stein- 0%
Img
(+-0)
Other/Undecided- 5%
Img
(+1)
OBAMA +12
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« Reply #186 on: December 23, 2017, 09:44:38 am »
« Edited: December 23, 2017, 10:01:03 am by Parrotguy »

August 11th, 2016

Obama campaign announces 50-state strategy in the face of Trump polling weakness, hires Roby Mook as senior advisor

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CHICAGO - The Obama 2016 Presidential campaign is getting into gear as the fall campaign nears. In a series of reforms, campaign manager Jim Messina and Chief Strategist David Axelrod have hired a bunch of new campaign aides and advisors, including former manager of Hillary Clinton's campaign in the 2016 Democratic primaries, Robby Mook.

Young and a rising star in the party, Mook was considered an able manager of the Clinton campaign, which in the end fell due to its candidate's inability to defeat President Obama rather than due to lackluster managing. According to official statements, Mook will advise the campaign on matters of "media and youth outreach", as well as manager turnout operations in various swingstates.

Additionally, the campaign has announced that in face of the strong polling gap opened by Obama against Trump, it will work on a 50-state strategy to appeal and turn out voters from every state, "from D.C. to Wyoming". When asked by reporters whether the campaign will concentrate on swingstates, Axelrod answered that "of course we will focus on the key states," but that "we're going to reach every state and every citizen, for downballot races but also for the race on the top of the ballot."

As the Obama campaign reforms to become a well-oiled machine, the Trump campaign seems to be struggling, with manager Corey Lewandowski resigning in June after being charged of physically assaulting a Breitbart reporter. His duties were, de-facto, assumed by campaign chairman Paul Manafort, but recent controversy surrounding Manafort's connections to Russia seems to be threatening his position, too.
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« Reply #187 on: December 23, 2017, 10:45:16 am »
« Edited: December 23, 2017, 02:48:14 pm by Parrotguy »

August 19th, 2016

Trump campaign shakeup: Manafort out, Conway, Bannon in

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NEW YORK CITY - Less than a week after the Obama campaign announced its ambitious 50-state plan, the Trump campaign, embroiled in controversy over both its candidate and key figures inside it, has undergone a shakeup of its own, trying to catch fire again and close the gap with the incumbent President.

And so, controversial campaign chairman and de-facto manager, Paul Manafort, who was accused of receiving millions of dollars off-the-books from former pro-Putin Ukrainian Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych's party and of other connections with the Russian regime, announced his resignation as chairman of the campaign. Instead, his duties were taken by two figures hired two days before his resignation, pollster and Republican political operative Kelleyanne Connway as campaign manager and Steve Bannon, chief-editor of the controversial alt-right media source Breitbard News, as chief executive of the campaign.

The change is considered an attempt to both stabilize the campaign with strong figures that will keep the infighting at bay, and a signal that it will continue to be a negative campaign, bashing President Obama, the Democrats and even the Republican establishment, with Bannon often quoted saying fiery statements against the entire political establishment.

In a further attempt to gain momentum, the Trump campaign announced a host of co-chairs who will serve as surrogates and supporters, including former NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R-NY), Senator Tom Cotton (R-AR), former Governor Sarah Palin (R-AK), former Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA), surgeon Ben Carson (R-MD) and former Governor Mike Huckabee (R-AR).

Shortly after, though, when the Obama campaign announced its own co-chairs, the Trump list seemed lackluster: it included popular, diverse figues such as Governor Deval Patrick (R-MA), Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), former Senator Russ Feingold (D-WI), former Senator Lincoln Chafee (D-RI), Senator Dick Durbin (D-IL), former Presidents Jimmy Carter (D-GA) and Bill Clinton (D-AR) and others. And thus, with Trump's aggressive campaign ready for collision with the strong campaign of the incumbent President, running for a historic third term, the fall campaign was set to begin.

Barack Obama vs Donald Trump (General)
Barack Obama- 50%
Img
(-1)
Donald Trump- 43%
Img
(+-0)
Undecided- 7%
Img
(+1)
OBAMA +7

Barack Obama vs Donald Trump vs Jon Huntsman vs Gary Johnson vs Jill Stein (General)
Barack Obama- 46%
Img
(-1)
Donald Trump- 35%
Img
(+-0)
Jon Huntsman- 11%
Img
(+1)
Gary Johnson- 3%
Img
(+-0)
Jill Stein- 0%
Img
(+-0)
Other/Undecided- 5%
Img
(+-0)
OBAMA +11

NEXT UP: Downballot races. Stay tuned!
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« Reply #188 on: December 25, 2017, 07:39:52 am »
« Edited: December 28, 2017, 12:35:00 am by Parrotguy »

September 1st, 2016

DOWNBALLOT RACES: The Battle for the Senate

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WASHINGTON, D.C. - With the race for the White House heating up, the Republicans and Democrats are focusing on another important battle- the one waged for control of both Houses of Congress, which could both go either way according to pundits, but especially the battle for the Senate. President Donald Trump is widely treated as an albatross around the neck of downballot Republicans, especially in swing races, causing many to distance themselves from their party's nominee, but it could be a dangerous game depressing their base's turnout, and Trump's presence is always there, looming behind every Republican, a big target for the Democrats. Let us examine the Senate races closely and see where each party can make gains.

Alabama
Richard Shelby (R) vs Ron Crumpton (D)
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In Alabama, one of the most ruby-red states in the nation, Democrats aren't investing resources. Senator Richard Shelby, safe and popular, after easily turning back a conservative primary challenge from businessman Jonathan McConnell, is expected to cruise to an easy reelection over the Democratic nominee, marijuana legalization activist Ron Crumpton.
RATING: Safe R

Alaska
Lisa Murkowski (R) vs Joe Miller (L) vs Hollis French (D)
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Incumbent Senator Lisa Murkowski is considered fairly safe in her reelection bid, however, she's threatened by a right-wing challenge from the nominee of the Libertarian Party, Attorney Joe Miller, who previously defeated her in the 2014 Republican primary only to lose to her write-in general election campaign. Additionally, Democratic former State Senator Hollis French is challenging her from the left, making the race a potentially perilous battle for the moderate Senator Murkowski.
RATING: Lean R

Arizona
John McCain (R) vs Ann Kirkpatrick (D)
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In Arizona, Democratic see a prime pickup opportunity. They hope to exploit two factors and achieve an upset victory in a previously reliable Republican state- the state's trend to the left with a big hispanic population, and longtime incumbent John McCain defeating a bruising challenge from far right former State Senator Kelly Ward, as well as the backlash he faces due to his refusal to endorse Trump, who said that the 2008 Republican nominee is "not a hero" because he was captured. However, McCain is a popular and experienced politician, one of the Republican party's symbolic figures, and would be tough to defeat.
RATING: Lean R

Arkansas
John Boozman (R) vs Connor Elbridge (D)
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In Arkansas, incumbent Senator John Boozman, having defeated Democratic former Senator Blanche Lincoln, is popular and polling very strongly. Despite rumours that one of the Democrats who lost their races in 2010 and 2014, Lincoln or former Senator Mark Pryor, might try to challenge Boozman, he only got a minor rival in the form of Democratic Attorney Connor Elbridge. With the national party barely investing in the race, Boozman is safe.
RATING: Safe R

California
Kamala Harris (D) vs Loretta Sanchez (D)
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Two Democrats advanced to the runoff in California's nonpartisan blanket primary- State Attorney General Kamala Harris and U.S. Representative Loretta Sanchez. Harris, who has the support of the Obama campaign, is expected to defeat Sanchez, who has support from Clintonworld. Whatever happens, this race will be won by a Democrat.
RATING: Safe D

Colorado
Michael Bennet (D) vs Darryl Glenn (R)
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Despite Colorado being, generally, a swingstate, incumbent Democratic Senator Michael Bennet is considered very popular and hard to beat. Thus, he got a fairly minor Republican rival in the form of El Passo County Comissioner Darryl Glenn. Additionally, Obama polls consistently well against Trump there. Still, this will be a race to watch due to Colorado's nature.
RATING: Likely D

Connecticut
Richard Blumenthal (D) vs Dan Carter (R)
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In the Nutmeg State, Senator Richard Blumenthal is considered strong and popular. Despite the state's tedency to be receptive to moderate Republican candidates, State Senator Dan Carter is expected to lose quite handily due to a favourable environment for Democrats and Blumenthal's popularity.
RATING: Safe D

Florida
Marco Rubio (R) vs Gwen Graham (D)
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In Florida, both the Republican and Democratic primaries were interesting. Incumbent Senator Marco Rubio, initially forsaking a reelection run in favour of a Presidential bid, changed his mind and managed to gain the Republican nomination, despite facing scrunity for, as his Democratic opponent called it, "lying to Florida voters". Meanwhile, former Representative and daughter of former Senator Bob Graham, Gwen Graham, surprisingly jumped into the race, despite speculations that she was aiming for a gubernatorial run in 2018. This was after initial Democratic frontrunner, Representative Patrick Murphy, was convinced to run for reelection in his Republican-leaning district instead, in order to increase the chances a Democrat would win there and help the party flip the House. Graham dispatched a primary rival in form of provocative far-left Representative Alan Grayson quite easily, and now she's hoping to challenge Rubio, frequently using his flip-flopping as an attack line and her family's deep roots and popularity in Florida as a way to attack him for "not caring" about the people of the state and using the Senate as a springboard for Presidential ambitios "from day one". Her attacks bruised Rubio, but he's still a popular Senator and a charismatic campaigner, so this is expected to be a very close race.
RATING: Tossup

Georgia
Johnny Isakson (R) vs Jason Carter (D)
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Though initially considered likely to cruise to reelection, as Donald Trump's candidacy seemed to improve the prospects of a favourable national environment for Democrats, incumbent Republican Senator got a surprising and strong challenger- Jason Carter, a former State Senator, 2014 Gubernatorial candidate and grandson of former President Jimmy Carter. With this challenge and changing dempgraphics increasingly helping Democrats, this is expected to be a potentially tough race for Isakson, but the incumbent is a very strong and popular politician in his state, as well as a capable campaigner, and current polls show him leading solidly.
RATING: Likely R

Hawaii
Brian Schatz (D) vs John Carroll (R)
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In Hawaii, a solid blue state, popular incumbent Senator Brian Schatz, a strong public speaker, is facing only a minor challenge from the much-older Republican former state legislator John Carroll. He's expected to easily cruise to reelection.
RATING: Safe D

Idaho
Mike Crapo (R) vs Jerry Sturgill (D)
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Incumbent Senator Mike Crapo is expected to easily win the race in the Republican state of Idaho against businessman Jerry Sturgill, and Democrats aren't investing here.
RATING: Safe R

Illinois
Mark Kirk (R) vs Tammy Duckworth (D)
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After shockingly winning the Senate race for Barack Obama's old seat in 2010, Mark Kirk was expected to be hard to defeat in 2016. However, rumours of health problems coupled with a badly-run campaign full of gaffes, as well as a strong and appealing candidate in Representative and disabled veteran Tammy Duckworth, are causing major problems for him, and Duckworth seems to have consistent leads in the polls.
RATING: Likely D
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« Reply #189 on: December 25, 2017, 08:42:52 am »
« Edited: March 29, 2018, 06:02:10 am by Parrotguy »

September 1st, 2016

DOWNBALLOT RACES: The Battle for the Senate (Part 2)

Indiana
Todd Young (R) vs Evan Bayh (D)
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In another unexpected, prime pickup opportunity for Democrats, former Senator and Governor Evan Bayh entered the race to replace retiring Republican Senator Dan Coats. He faces a strong Republican challenger in Todd Young, however, and Bayh's baggage from his time in the D.C. lobbying business is expected to make this a close race despite initial polling leads for him.
RATING: Tossup

Iowa
Chuck Grassley (R) vs Tom Visack (D)
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Initial polls were showing incumbent Senator Grassley easily leading over his likeliest challenger, former Lieutenant Governor Patty Judge. However, when Agriculture Secretary and former Governor Tom Vilsack entered, reportedly with the urging of President Obama, the race suddenly became much closer. Both Grassley and Vilsack are very popular in their state, so this is definitely a race to watch.
RATING: Lean R

Kansas
Jerry Moran (R) vs Patrick Wiesner (D)
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In another race where a Senator is expected to cruise for reelection without much of a challenge from the other party, popular incumbent Jerry Moran is challenged by Attorney Patrick Wiesner who isn't expected to make much of a splash.
RATING: Safe R

Kentucky
Rand Paul (R) vs Jim Gray (D)
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Rand Paul's reelection bid in Republican-friendly Kentucky isn't expected to get too perilous, dsespite the tough candidacy of Lexingtom Mayor and the first openly gay major party nominee for Senate in the state, Jim Gray. However, in the right environment this could become closer , perhaps due to Paul's controversial views or the state's relative elasticity.
RATING: Likely R

Louisiana
John Neely Kennedy (R) vs Caroline Fayard (D) vs Foster Campbell (D) vs Charles Boustany (R) vs John Fleming (R) vs David Duke (R)
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In Louisiana's jungle primary race to replace retiring Senator David Vitter (R), there are many serious contenders, though the leading candidates to qualify for the runoff are considered Kennedy, Campbell, Boustany and Fayard. But barring an upset with two Democrats advancing, or controversial former KKK grandwizard David Duke advancing against a Democrat, this race is considered likely to be won by whichever Republican gets to the runoff.
RATING: Likely R

Maryland
Chris Van Hollen (D) vs Kathy Szeliga (R)
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In the race to replace retiring Senator Barbara Mikulski, the longest serving female Senator, Democrat Chris Van Hollen won a hard primary against Representative Donna Edwards. Now, he's likely to cruise to victory against Republican Delegate Kathy Szeliga in the blue state of Maryland.
RATING: Safe D

Missouri
Roy Blunt (R) vs Jason Kander (D)
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Despite  the state's Republican lean, Senate and Gubernatorial races in Missouri were always a tight affair. This year, incumbent Senator Roy Blunt was widely expected to win a solid reelection with the power of incumbency. However, his opponent, Democratic Secretary of State Jason Kander, a young veteran, has been running a strong and effective campaign, especially in comparison to Blunt's "sleepwalking" campaign, making this race closer and closer. Many Democrats are hopeful that Kander's youth, charisma and attractiveness can serve as a way to defeat the old Senator Blunt.
RATING: Tossup

Nevada
Catherine Cortez Masto (D) vs Joe Heck (R)
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In Nevada, the race to replace retiring Senator Harry Reid is very close between former State Attorney Genral Catherine Cortez Masto and Representative Joe Heck. On the one hand, Masto is popular and charismatic, appealing to the state's large hispanic community. On the other hand, Heck's brand of moderate Republicanism is popular in Nevada, and his refusal to endorse Trump could help him, or harm him with his base. That remains to be seen.
RATING: Tossup

New Hampshire
Kelly Ayotte (R) vs Maggie Hassan (D)
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Touted as a rising Republican star and a possible contender for the Presidency or Vice Presidency, Senator Kelly Ayotte is now fighting for her political life against the state's governor, Maggie Hassan. She's wading dangerous waters in her neutrality about Donald Trump, which could harm her with the base or help her with the state's large moderate, independent population. This is one of the closest races in the country right now.
RATING: Tossup

New York
Chuck Schumer(D) vs Wendy Long (R)
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In the Empire State, Senator Chuck Schumer is not only very popular, but also destenied to become Democratic leader in the Senate, possibly Majority Leader of the stars align. New Yorkers are extremely unlikely to forsake this opportunity and elect his Republican opponent, attorney Wendy Long.
RATING: Safe D

North Carolina
Richard Burr (R) vs Kay Hagan (D)
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The race in the Tar Heel state was close from the start, but when former Senator Kay Hagan, still popular despite a loss in 2014's unfavourable environment, entered, dispatching a primary challenge from former State Representative Deborah Ross, it became a tossup. Now, with Burr running a campaign considered lackluster by many, she even achieved a lead in some polls.
RATING: Tossup

North Dakota
John Hoeven (R) vs Eliot Glassheim (D-NPL)
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In the red, oil-dependant state of North Dakota, incumbent Senator John Hoeven was never expected to have much trouble getting re-elected. But now, with Democrats using climate change as a key plank of their platform, he's expected to trounce former State Representative and Eliot Glassheim handily.
RATING: Safe R
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« Reply #190 on: December 25, 2017, 09:26:02 am »

September 1st, 2016

DOWNBALLOT RACES: The Battle for the Senate (Part 3)

Ohio
Rob Portman (R) vs Betty Sutton (D)
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Initially, former Governot Ted Strickland was considered the likeliest challenger for incumbent Republican Senator Rob Portman in Ohio, and many pundits expected it to be close. However, he then announced that he won't run, dealing a blow to an otherwise successful recruiting effort for Senate Democrats. Instead, former Representative Betty Sutton emerged victorious from a splintered field including Cincinnati Councilman P.G. Sittenfield, former Representative John Boccieri and former State Senator Nina Turner. The race is considered likely to go to Portman's way, but Sutton is running a strong campaign in this swingstate.
RATING: Lean R

Oklahoma
James Lankford (R) vs Mike Workman (D)
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Incumbent Senator James Lankford of Oklahoma had only one person to worry about in his reelection bid- former Representative Dan Boren. Once Democrats failed to recruit him, all that was left for Lakford is to cruise to reelection against a minor challlenger, political consultant Mike Workman, and this is just what he's currently doing.
RATING: Safe R

Oregon
Ron Wyden (D) vs Mark Callahan (R)
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In Oregon, a state that usually had competitive races for Senate and Governor, Republicans hoped to force Democrats on the defensive in order to reelect Senator Ron Wyden. However, aided by an effective campaign and a good national environment, the incumbent is expected to easily win reelection over a poor recruit, perennial candidate Mark Callahan.
RATING: Safe D

Pennsylvania
Pat Toomey (R) vs Joe Sestak (D)
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In one of the closest and most watched races in the country, incumbent Republican Senator Pat Toomey, who's touting a moderate record despite trying to primary former Senator Arlen Specter from the right back in 2004, is struggling for his political life against strong Democratic opposition in a Democratic-leaning state. However, Joe Sestak, a retired Admiral and former Representative seeking a rematch after losing to Toomey in 2010, just got out of a bruising, hard-fought primary against Katie McGinty, who only endorsed him reluctantly.
RATING: Tossup

South Carolina
Tim Scott (R) vs Thomas Dixon (D)
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While normally, Democrats would invest in the Senate race in a state like South Carolina, which has a large African American community, this year they're only presenting a minor challenger, pastor Thomas Dixon. This is because the incumbent, Tim Scott, is very popular and expected to easily win reelection.
RATING: Safe R

South Dakota
John Thune (R) vs Tom Daschle (D)
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In South Dakota, ranking Senate Republican John Thune, a popular incumbent in the state, was expected to quite easily win reelection. However, despite his previous reluctance, former Democratic Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle agreed to pleads from the Obama campaign to enter the race, and thus forced Republicans to spend efforts here. This is still considered an unlikely pickup for Democrats.
RATING: Likely R

Utah
Mike Lee (R) vs Misty Snow (D)
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Though initially fearing a primary challenge, Utah Senator Mike Lee won the Republican nomination without competition. Now, he's facing the first transgender woman to be a major party's Senate nominee, grocery store clerk Misty Snow, a self described "Sanders Democrat", and is expected to easily win reelection.
RATING: Safe R

Vermont
Patrick Leahy (D) vs Scott Milne (R)
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In Bernie Sanders' homestate, the most senior Democratic Senator, Patrick Leahy, is running for reelection. Though his Republican opponent, former Gubernatorial nominee Scott Milne who barely lost to Govenor Shmulin in 2014, is considered strong, Leahy is likely to cruise to an easy reelection.
RATING: Safe D

Washington
Patty Murray (D) vs Chris Vance (R)
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In Washington, just like in Oregon, Republicans hoped to present a strong challenge to ranking Democratic Senator Patty Murray. Former State Representative Chris Vance tried to do just that, but is considered a weak, barely-known candidate. Murray is expected to easily win reelection.
RATING: Safe D

Wisconsin
Ron Johnson (R) vs Russ Feingold (D)
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In another important Senate race, former Senator and progressive darling Russ Feingold is running against the one who defeated him in the Republican wave of 2010, Senator Ron Johnson. Feingold's popularity in Wisconsin and the state's Cemocratic lean in Presidential years are expected to make this race in Feingold's favour, but it's still not a race Democrats should treat unseriously.
RATING: Lean D
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« Reply #191 on: December 27, 2017, 11:01:20 am »

They hired Mook? RIP Obama.
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« Reply #192 on: December 27, 2017, 03:48:11 pm »

I hope William Kreml (Stein's main opponent) runs an independent campaign for those who were going to support Stein before the leak.
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« Reply #193 on: December 27, 2017, 03:50:34 pm »

also, you accidentally said California instead of Colorado in the first Race for the Senate post.
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« Reply #194 on: December 27, 2017, 08:56:03 pm »

I hope William Kreml (Stein's main opponent) runs an independent campaign for those who were going to support Stein before the leak.
So they can each get 0.45% of the popular vote? Tongue
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« Reply #195 on: December 27, 2017, 09:12:10 pm »

I hope William Kreml (Stein's main opponent) runs an independent campaign for those who were going to support Stein before the leak.
So they can each get 0.45% of the popular vote? Tongue
it's what third parties do, right? Heck, he may even found his own party, and it replaces the Greens, we never know...
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« Reply #196 on: December 27, 2017, 09:14:43 pm »

I hope William Kreml (Stein's main opponent) runs an independent campaign for those who were going to support Stein before the leak.
So they can each get 0.45% of the popular vote? Tongue
it's what third parties do, right? Heck, he may even found his own party, and it replaces the Greens, we never know...
I guess there's the Justice Party for that if we get into the nitty gritty of micro parties. I'd imagine Glenn Beck and the "Truh Conservatives" still go for Castle.
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« Reply #197 on: December 28, 2017, 04:33:12 pm »

I hope William Kreml (Stein's main opponent) runs an independent campaign for those who were going to support Stein before the leak.

Well, most Stein supporters still support her. The others either stay at home, or vote for various small parties, or support Obama. Remember, she got 0.36% of the vote in 2012, the 1% she got in 2016 wasn't the natural Green Party base but mainly due to Clinton's unpopularity. So while the photo harmed her, its impact isn't that huge, and a Kreml candidacy will probably fail to get much support or ballot access.
Also: Thanks for the interest, everyone! Governors post coming soon, and then the fall campaign- I anticipate reaching election night in a few weeks! Smiley
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« Reply #198 on: December 29, 2017, 01:15:46 am »

Tom Daschle, lmao.
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« Reply #199 on: December 29, 2017, 10:10:02 am »
« Edited: April 28, 2018, 03:05:28 pm by Parrotguy »

September 1st, 2016

DOWNBALLOT RACES: The Struggle for the Mansions (PART 1)

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WASHINGTON, D.C. - While the battle for Congress occupies much of the attention of pundits, politicians and political observers, another important issue will be on the ballot in a dozen states come Nobember 8th- the election of their governors for the next four years. Here, the races seem more local than nationalized, and Trump's effect on the Republican candidates for office is less obvious, and depends on their willingness to embrace him. Let's observe the various races:

Delaware
John Carney (D) vs Colin Bonni (R)
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The race to succeed term-limited Governor Jack Markell (D) was initially thought to be dominated by Delaware's then-Attorney General and son of the Vice President, Beau Biden. However, when tragedy struck and Biden died of brain cancer, U.S. Representative and former Lieutenant Governor John Carney ran for, and won, the Democratic nomination instead. The Republican running against him, State Senator Colin Bonini, isn't running a very strong campaign and is considered likely to be swept away by Representative Carney, especially in a polarized election year.
RATING: Safe D

Indiana
Mike Pence (R) vs Pete Buttigieg (D)
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After declining to take the job of Republican nominee Donald Trump's running mate, Governor Mike Pence of Indiana is running for reelection. Against him stands a surprising candidate- South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg, a young and charismatic politician who was able to excite the Democratic base and defeat former Speaker of the Indiana House of Representatives, John Gregg, 52%-47% in the primary. Pence's approval ratings are under the water and Democrats are excited at the possibility of a gay man defeating the conservative Governor who once expressed support for "conversion therapy", but Indiana is still a conservative state, leading many to believe that Buttigieg is just too off-putting for Hoosier voters.
RATING: Lean R

Missouri
Chris Koster (D) vs Peter Kinder (R)
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While the Democratic primary in Missouri's Gubernatorial race was nearly uncontested, and Attorney General Chris Koster easily won it, the Republican primary was different. Initially considered a battle between Lieutenant Governor Peter Kinder, State Auditor Tom Schweich and former Speaker of the Missouri House Catherine Hanaway. However, after Schweich's tragic suicide, various other candidates entered the race including former Navy SEAL Eric Greitens, State Senator Bob Dixon and conservative businessman John Brunner. The race was tight and nasty, with no candidate really gaining an edge- Hanaway was initiallly the frontrunner but her campaign took much of the blame for the alleged "bullying" that lead to Schweich's suicide, and then Greitens became the front-runner but crushed after allegations of an affair surfaced. In the end, the result gave an edge to the candidate with the most statewide name recognition, Lieutenant Governor Kinder, who won 27% of the vote over 26% for Hanaway, 22% for Brunner, 17% for Greitens and 6% for Dixon. Now, in the general election to succeed Governor Jay Nixon (D), a bruised Kinder is facing a strong Democat, Koster, in a Republican-leaning state, and the race is expected to be tight.
RATING: Tossup

Montana
Steve Bullock (D) vs Greg Gianforte (R)
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Governor Steve Bullock (D) is running for reelection in Montana, facing conservative businessman Greg Gianforte. Despite the state's conservative lean, Bullock is considered a popular governor and an able campaigner, while Gianforte's campaign has been lacking and some voters consider him too extreme, leading many to believe that the Governor will win reelection.
RATING: Lean D

New Hampshire
Colin Van Ostern (D) vs Chris Sununu (R)
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In the race to succeed New Hampshire's Governor, Maggie Hassan, two popular politicians are running against each other, both members of the state's Executive Council advising and providing a check on the Governor. Republicans nominated Chris Sununu, son of former Governor John H. Sununu and brother of former Senator John E. Sununu, a son of one of the state's most influential political dynasties. Meanwhile, Democrats nominated Colin Van Ostern with the support of another Granite State political dynasty, the Shaheen family, setting up another Sununu vs Shaheen proxy war. The race is considered very tight, just like the Senate race in the same state, and could go either way.
RATING: Tossup

North Carolina
Pat McRory (R) vs Roy Cooper (D)
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Runnin under the shadow of national outrage over an anti-transgender law and low approval ratings, Governor Pat McRory (R) is fighting for his political life over the Democratic nominee, Attorney General Roy Cooper. This is considered a tight race, but Democrats have started leading more and more in the polls, causing worries in the McRory campaign that he's the underdog in the race.
RATING: Lean D
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