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  Atlas Forum
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderators: Tegridy Farms, Apocrypha)
  Four More Years - a 2016 Election Timeline (search mode)
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Poll
Question: Who should Obama choose as his Running Mate?
#1
Tim Kaine
#2
Julian Castro
#3
Tom Vilsack
#4
Amy Klobucher
#5
Kirsten Gillibrand
#6
Al Franken
#7
Jeff Merkley
#8
John Hickenlooper
#9
Martin Heinrich
#10
WHO SHOULD TRUMP CHOOSE?
#11
Newt Gingrich
#12
Ben Carson
#13
Chris Christie
#14
Mary Fallin
#15
Scott Brown
#16
Marsha Blackburn
#17
Mike Flynn
#18
Jeff Sessions
#19
Jim Webb
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Partisan results


Author Topic: Four More Years - a 2016 Election Timeline  (Read 37181 times)
Parrotguy
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« Reply #50 on: October 15, 2017, 05:27:10 am »

March 9th, 2016

Sanders, Obama participate in ninth Democratic debate



MIAMI - In a debate sponsored by Washington Post and Univision, with Spanish-speaking moderators, President Barack Obama and his challenger, Senator Bernie Sanders, sparred in a contentious debate. They discussed issues like immigration reform, the environment and many other issues, and according to post-debate polls, no one managed to win the debate, with both candidates performing well. Let's look at a few key moments in the debate:


Moderator: So in conclusion, would it be fair to call Donald Trump a racist?
Bernie Sanders: "Look, this man's rhetoric is terrible. The way he speaks about Hispanics, about women, about African Americans... the fact that he was leading the birther movement, it's deploreable, and I'm pleased to be leading him by close to 20% in the polls. My father was a Polish immigrant, so I know a little bit about the immigrant experience. And I was never asked to show my birth certificate- maybe because of the colour of my skin."
Barack Obama: "I'm absolutely in agreement with the Senator here. I hope that Donald Trump will not be the Republican nominee, because even the chance of him becoming President is bizarre, but if he will, we will stand against all of this rhetoric of his."


Moderator: "President Obama, the question was... the question was, so why did you not pass immigration reform in these 8 years, after promising it so much?"
Barack Obama: "In short? The Republican congress. In length? We've tried, many times, to pass comprehensive immigration reform. We worked with Republicans, such as the Band of Eight, but every time, the hardline GOP Congressmen derail our work with their inflammatory comment and their incitement against immigrants. We actually came close in 2007, when we were ready to pass a bill sponsored by Ted Kennedy, with support from both Democrats and Republicans, but in the end, it failed because of hardliners from the left and from the right who voted against it, including Senator Sanders."
Bernie Sanders: "I remember this bill, and I remember why I voted against it. This bill had a guest worker provision that allowed near-slavery, and I couldn't, in good concsiousness, vote for it."
Barack Obama: "Well, first of all, near-slavery is a very far-fetched way to put it. Second-
 was this bill perfect? No. Was it our best chance to pass a comprehensive reform? Yes. We will work on it in my next term, and I hope tha Senator Sanders will work with us then."


Who won the ninth Democratic debate?
Barack Obama- 45%
Bernie Sanders- 43%
Unsure- 12%

Democratic Primary (National)-
Barack Obama- 56%  (+1)
Bernie Sanders- 38%  (+-0)
Undecided- 6%  (-1)

Democratic Primary (Florida)-
Barack Obama- 62%  (+1)
Bernie Sanders- 33%  (-1)
Undecided- 5%  (+-0)

Democratic Primary (Illinois)-
Barack Obama- 73%  (-1)
Bernie Sanders- 22%  (-1)
Undecided- 5%  (+2)

Democratic Primary (Missouri)-
Bernie Sanders- 47%  (+-0)
Barack Obama- 47%  (+1)
Undecided- 6%  (-1)

Democratic Primary (North Carolina)-
Barack Obama- 61%  (+2)
Bernie Sanders- 35%  (-1)
Undecided- 4%  (-1)

Democratic Primary (Ohio)-
Barack Obama- 52%  (-2)
Bernie Sanders- 44%  (+2)
Undecided- 4%  (+-0)

Barack Obama vs Donald Trump (General)
Barack Obama- 56%
Donald Trump- 33%
Other/Undecided- 11%

Bernie Sanders vs Donald Trump (General)
Bernie Sanders- 53%
Donald Trump- 34%
Other/Undecided- 13%
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Parrotguy
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« Reply #51 on: October 15, 2017, 05:51:22 am »

March 12th, 2016

Candidates campaign in Mega Tuesday state; Obama wins Northern Mariana Islands

COLUMBUS - As the March 15 contests, dubbed Super Tuesday II or Mega Tuesday, get closer, the campaigns of the Democratic candidates, Barack Obama and Bernie Sanders, are canvassing them with rallies and ads.

While the President's home state, Illinois, is not considered competitive, Sanders is heavily campaigning in the other states, focusing on Ohio and Missouri, where the electorate was shown to be friendly to him, but also investing in Florida, though the polls don't seem good for him there. They're employing their strongest surrogates and heaviest guns in these states, and at times, it seems like these are the deciding contests of the race.


Bernie Sanders campaigning in Cleveland, Ohio with Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-OH)


President Obama and Senator Bill Nelson (D-FL) campaigning in Orlando

Meanwhile, Barack Obama achieved a large victory in the Caucuses of Northern Mariana Islands, an American territory:


Democratic Northern Mariana Islands Caucuses results, 100% counted:
Barack Obama- 59.1% (4 pledged delegates) ✓
Bernie Sanders- 28.5% (2 pledged delegates)
Rocky De La Fuente: 12.4% (0 pledged delegates)
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Parrotguy
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« Reply #52 on: October 15, 2017, 07:07:24 am »

March 15th, 2016

Obama sweeps most four out of five contests, proclaims victory



CHICAGO - The current trends in the Democratic primaries seem to continue. While Obama won tonight very large victory in states with large minority populations, Sanders overperformed his polls in rustbelt states, where white working-class voters are the majority of the electorate. But in the end, the incumbent President is considered the victory tonight- he won landslide victories in three states, kept a narrow lead in Ohio, where his strength with urban and minority voters gave him a commanding victory, and only narrowly Missouri, where Sanders won strong margins with white working-class voters.

With age groups, the Presidnet continued winning old voters, which, among other factors, gave him his landslide in Florida. Young voters seem torn- both Obama and Sanders are popular among them, but Sanders won them narrowly tonight, 52-47. Noteable, first-time voters go for Sanders overwhelmingly, while older but still young voters, who voted for Obama in his 2008 and 2012 campaigns, are going for the President. These wins give Obama, according to our count, an almost insurmountable delegate lead.

In his victory speech before a large crowd in Chicago, Obama proclaimed that "we've almost won the Democratic, and we will continue winning more and more states, but it's time to look forward- let's win this election, and defeat the radical, obstructionist agenda of the Republican Part". Indeed, the entire tone of his speech seemed to be focusing on the general election, targeting Donald Trump, Ted Cruz and the Republican establishment. Meanwhile, Bernie Sanders thanked his supporters and promised to "go forward and bring our message to everyone". Let's review the results tonight:


Democratic Florida Primary results, 100% counted:
Barack Obama- 68.2% (151 pledged delegates) ✓
Bernie Sanders- 28.4% (63 pledged delegates)
Hillary Clinton: 3.1% (0 pledged delegates)
Others- 0.2% (0 pledged delegates)


Democratic Illinois Primary results, 100% counted:
Barack Obama- 80.9% (127 pledged delegates) ✓
Bernie Sanders- 17.8% (29 pledged delegates)
Others- 1.3% (0 pledged delegates)


Democratic Missouri Primary results, 100% counted:
Bernie Sanders- 50.6% (37 pledged delegates) ✓
Barack Obama- 48.7% (34 pledged delegates)
Others- 0.7% (0 pledged delegates)


Democratic North Carolina Primary results, 100% counted:
Barack Obama- 64.6% (70 pledged delegates) ✓
Bernie Sanders- 34.8% (37 pledged delegates)
Others- 0.6% (0 pledged delegates)


Democratic Ohio Primary results, 100% counted:
Barack Obama- 49.7% (73 pledged delegates) ✓
Bernie Sanders- 47.8% (70 pledged delegates)
Hillary Clinton- 2.0% (0 pledged delegates)
Rocky De La Fuente- 0.5% (0 pledged delegates)

Current state of the race:

Democratic Primaries

American Samoa
Guam
Northern Mariana Islands
US Virgin Islands
Democrats Abroad


Barack Obama- 1054 pledged delegates
Bernie Sanders- 652 pledged delegates
Hillary Clinton- 312 pledged delegates
Others- 0 pledged delegates
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Parrotguy
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« Reply #53 on: October 18, 2017, 05:39:56 am »


Thanks everyone! Smiley New update in a few minutes. University is starting soon though, so I'll probably not be able to keep the same pace.
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Parrotguy
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« Reply #54 on: October 18, 2017, 07:16:16 am »

March 22th, 2016

Sanders wins Idaho, Utah; Obama takes Arizona



PHOENIX - As the Democratic race enters grounds more favourable to Senator Sanders, he seems to be doing well, as expected, in majority-white caucus states, while President Obama wins more minority-rich primary states. But while Sanders won two out of three states today, he won them by a smaller margin than expected and lost Arizona by a bigger one than the polls initially showed.

As polls show President Obama gaining popularity with both the Democrats and the general electorate, it seems like his party is finally starting to close ranks and the Vermont Independent Senator's insurgent campaign is starting to slip out of his hands. This is evident in the Democrats Abroad primary, the results of which we've received yesterday:


Democrats Abroad Primary results, 100% counted:
Barack Obama- 54.8% (8 pledged delegates) ✓
Bernie Sanders- 44.5% (5 pledged delegates)
Others- 0.7% (0 pledged delegates)

The survival of Bernie Sanders' campaign, according to experts and inside sources, seems to depend on the next few sets of primaries, starting from the three caucus states voting next week, Washington, Hawaii and Alaska, going through Wisconsin, and ending with the northeastern primaries, where he must perform well. However, it will not be easy- Sanders is favoured in caucus states, but the President is wildly popular in his birth state of Hawaii, the Wisconsin polls are tight, and Obama has leads throughout the northeast. Let's look at today's results:


Democratic Arizona Primary results, 100% counted:
Barack Obama- 68.2% (52 pledged delegates) ✓
Bernie Sanders- 30.7% (23 pledged delegates)
Others- 1.1% (0 pledged delegates)



Democratic Utah Caucuses results, 100% counted:
Bernie Sanders- 61.3% (22 pledged delegates) ✓
Barack Obama- 38.7% (13 pledged delegates)
Others- 0.1% (0 pledged delegates)


Democratic Idaho Caucuses results, 100% counted:
Bernie Sanders- 53.8% (13 pledged delegates) ✓
Barack Obama- 45.9% (10 pledged delegates)
Others- 0.3% (0 pledged delegates)
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Parrotguy
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« Reply #55 on: October 18, 2017, 08:42:41 am »
« Edited: October 18, 2017, 08:45:22 am by Parrotguy »

March 26th, 2016

Obama sours Sanders victories in Washington and Alaska, wins Hawaii



HONOLULU - Despite hopes in the Sanders campaign for a string of three victories in the caucuses today, President Obama held on in his birth state of Hawaii and won the caucuses there by a large margin. The Vermont Senator, meanwhile, won a landslide victory in Alaska and a solid one in Washington, continuing to show his strength in caucus states and with the white working class.

Once again, Sanders' margins in states where he was favoured seemed underwhelming, and it increasingly appears like his campaign is dependant on a Wisconsin victory if it is to survive. Still, Sanders proclaimed victory tonight in a Milwaukee rally, vowing to continue and saying that the string of victories in rural states prove that "forgotten Americans want a change". Both him and the President are heavily campaigning in Wisconsin now, and it looks like the primary there might be the most important contest since Super Tuesday II.


Democratic Alaska Caucuses results, 100% counted:
Bernie Sanders- 60.3% (10 pledged delegates) ✓
Barack Obama- 39.6% (6 pledged delegates)
Others- 0.1% (0 pledged delegates)


Democratic Hawaii Caucuses results, 100% counted:
Barack Obama- 58.4% (15 pledged delegates) ✓
Bernie Sanders- 41.6% (10 pledged delegates)
Others- 0.0% (0 pledged delegates)


Democratic Idaho Caucuses results, 100% counted:
Bernie Sanders- 56.1% (57 pledged delegates) ✓
Barack Obama- 43.9% (44 pledged delegates)
Others- 0.0% (0 pledged delegates)

Finally, let's take a look at the current state of the race:

Democratic Primaries

American Samoa
Guam
Northern Mariana Islands
US Virgin Islands
Democrats Abroad


Barack Obama- 1202 pledged delegates
Bernie Sanders- 792 pledged delegates
Hillary Clinton- 312 pledged delegates
Others- 0 pledged delegates
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Parrotguy
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« Reply #56 on: October 18, 2017, 08:51:41 am »

Damm this race is close but after NY Its going to be over for Sanders
Also whats the republican field looking like?

Exactly the same as IRL. Which means that Trump will be the nominee Wink
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Parrotguy
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« Reply #57 on: October 18, 2017, 02:18:03 pm »

April 5th, 2016

Bernie Sanders wins narrows victory in Wisconsin; race shifts to the northeast



MILWAUKEE - In a win that probably saved his campaign from death, Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) narrowly defeated Barack Obama in the Wisconsin Primary. Once again displaying his strength among working class voters, Sanders sweeped them by large margins, while losing African Americans to Obama. Young voters went narrowly for Sanders, once again.

Sanders thanked his supporters for "voting your interest" and promised them to keep fighting for matters of importance for them such as medicaid-for-all, free college tuition, campaign finance reform and fair trade. President Obama, meanwhile, looked in high spirits in his speech and promised voters that "we're going to win the primaries, win the general election, and continue bringing positive change".


Democratic Wisconsin Primary results, 100% counted:
Bernie Sanders- 49.5% (44 pledged delegates) ✓
Barack Obama- 48.7% (42 pledged delegates)
Others- 1.8% (0 pledged delegates)

With the primary in the Badger State done, the Democratic primaries shift towards the northeast, starting from the all-important New York Primary and ending with the Acela Primaries in five other states in the region. This is considered the last chance for Bernie Sanders to reemerge and gain the mantle of frontrunner, and the President's chance to dispatch his primary challenger once and for all. Currently, Obama is favoured in most of them, but Sanders is certainly competitive. Let's look at the last polls:


Democratic Primary (National)-
Barack Obama- 59%  (+3)
Bernie Sanders- 37%  (-1)
Undecided- 4%  (-2)

Democratic Primary (New York)-
Barack Obama- 50%
Bernie Sanders- 46%
Undecided- 4%

Democratic Primary (Connecticut)-
Barack Obama- 51%
Bernie Sanders- 42%
Undecided- 7%

Democratic Primary (Delaware)-
Barack Obama- 60%
Bernie Sanders- 36%
Undecided- 4%

Democratic Primary (Maryland)-
Barack Obama- 55%
Bernie Sanders- 40%
Undecided- 5%

Democratic Primary (Pennsylvania)-
Barack Obama- 47%
Bernie Sanders- 46%
Undecided- 7%

Democratic Primary (Rhode Island )-
Barack Obama- 48%
Bernie Sanders- 48%
Undecided- 4%
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Parrotguy
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« Reply #58 on: October 18, 2017, 03:42:16 pm »

April 9th, 2016

Sanders wins Wyoming; candidates heavily campaign in New York



CHEYENNE - Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) won a solid, unsurprising victory in the last state to vote in the Democratic Primaries before New York. He took all age groups and white voters, who were the overwhelming majority of the electorate, by solid margins, and easily coasted to the win. This is yet another example that shows his strength in ruraly, predominantly white areas.


Democratic Wyoming Caucuses results, 100% counted:
Bernie Sanders- 61.7% (9 pledged delegates) ✓
Barack Obama- 38.3% (5 pledged delegates)
Others- 0.0% (0 pledged delegates)

However, the caucuses in the Equality State aren't expected to have too big of an effect on the much-more-important New York Primary ten days later. Something else, though, might.

In an interview conducted with the New York Post and published last Monday, Senator Sanders massively inflated the number of casualities infliced by Israeli forces on the Palestinian population in Gaza last summer. While Sanders claimed that the number is 10,000, acknowledging that he doesn't know the exact figures but maintaining his position that the number is "over 10,000" even when he was told that the estimation was "probably high".

This number is far more than even the Hamas health authorities claim, and Jewish leaders are furious over it, accusing Sanders of "believing to antisemitic lies meant to deligitimize the existence of the Jewish State", as one New York Rabbi put it. Senator Chuck Schumer (D-NY), a known supporter of Israel, critisized Sanders for "pandering to anti-Israeli activists" and "just not telling the truth". Sources inside the Sanders campaign are worrying that this criticism might hurt their candidate in New York, where a good chunk of the Democratic electorate is Jewish, but nonetheless, both candidates are continuing to campaign in the state with surrogates and family.


President Obama campaigns with Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) in Bronx


Senator Sanders campaigns in New York with the city's famous landscape in his back
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Parrotguy
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« Reply #59 on: October 18, 2017, 04:23:37 pm »
« Edited: October 20, 2017, 04:05:41 am by Parrotguy »

April 14, 2016

Democrats hold final debate in Brooklyn, New York; trade, foreign policy most contentious issues



NEW YORK CITY - The two Democratic contenders, Barack Obama and Bernie Sanders, met tonight for their tenth and final debate in Brooklyn. It was a fiery debate, and an important one too- both candidates needed to stay afloat and potentially get a breakthrough before the New York Primary, where polling has been tight. Both succeeded in the former, but failed in the latter- while they had many contentious exchanges, Obama and Sanders couldn't topple their opponent.

Many issues were debated tonight. While the candidates mostly agreed on campaign finance reform, tax reform, healthcare and immigration, they differed greatly on trade and foreign policy. Let's look at two of the more contentious parts of the debate:


Bernie Sanders: "This trade agreement, the TPP and the TTIP which the President plans to succeed it, is disastrous, hurts the middle class and I cannot support it. As President, I will immediately withdraw from this agreement and review NAFTA, as well. It's time for fair trade!"
Barack Obama: "This is just populist rhetoric, Senator. There are many safeguards to this agreement, labour regulations in the signatory countries. It would improve labour conditions there, it would help our economy stay stronger than China's, while you would have us surrender to the Chinese and curl up in a protectionist bubble, something proven again and again as very dangerous, throughout history."


Wolf Blitzer: "So why did you give the wrong figures, Senator? These numbers, they were widely reported and are easily discoverable. Why did you inflate it so much?"
Bernie Sanders: "Look, I apologize for getting the numbers wrong, but it doesn't change the principle point I was trying to make- apartment houses were leveled, I think hospitals were bombed... I do believe and I donít think Iím alone in believing that Israelís force was more indiscriminate than it should have been."
Barack Obama: "First of all, Senator, you didn't just inflate the numbers here- you inflated them massively, almost ridiculously. Palestinian figures cited by the Human Rights Council say, if I remember correctly, that close to 1,500 civillians were killed during that operation. Israeli numbers, meanwhile - and, um, while I don't know which numbers are correct, I do tend to believe our Israeli allies, who provide intelligence worth many American lives - Israeli numbers claim that more than half of those killed were combatants. And look, while I see what the Senator is trying to say, and I agree that civilian casualties are extremely unfourtunate and should be avoided, the matter is far more complicated than he makes it out to be- Hamas is using hospitals and apartments as human shields, for example. So, the whole way Senator Sanders is speaking about this issue, it makes me think that he just doesn't have the experience in foreign policy, the understanding. And while I find it amusing that I'd accuse a Senator older than me by about twenty years of inexperience, it just doesn't seem like foreign policy, something of great importance for a President, is in his interest."


Barack Obama: "NATO is very important for keeping the world peaceful and balanced and for our interests, Wolf. I'd definitely stay in, and even work to expand NATO, because this is an organization that stops dangerous, expansionist regimes very effectively. The Senator's rhetoric on the topic has been very reminiscint of Donald Trump's, and I really do wonder if there's a difference between their plans, and lack thereof, on the issue."
Bernie Sanders: "Well, you got to ask - you got to ask Trump. All I can tell you is, with a huge deficit, with 47 million people living in poverty, with our inner cities collapsing, yeah, I do think countries like Germany and U.K. and France and European countries whose economy, or at least its standard of living and health care and education, theyíre doing pretty well. So I would not be embarrassed as president of the United States to say to our European allies, you know what, the United States of America cannot just support your economies. You got to put up your own fair share of the defense burden. Nothing wrong with that."

Who won the 10th and final Democratic debate?
Barack Obama- 54%
Bernie Sanders- 35%
Unsure- 11%

Democratic Primary (National)-
Barack Obama- 60%  (+1)
Bernie Sanders- 36%  (-1)
Undecided- 4%  (+-0)

Democratic Primary (New York)-
Barack Obama- 52%  (+2)
Bernie Sanders- 45%  (-1)
Undecided- 3%  (-1)

Democratic Primary (Connecticut)-
Barack Obama- 52%  (+1)
Bernie Sanders- 43%  (+1)
Undecided- 5%  (-2)

Democratic Primary (Delaware)-
Barack Obama- 63%  (+3)
Bernie Sanders- 33%  (-3)
Undecided- 4%  (+-0)

Democratic Primary (Maryland)-
Barack Obama- 55%  (+-0)
Bernie Sanders- 41%  (+1)
Undecided- 4%  (-1)

Democratic Primary (Pennsylvania)-
Barack Obama- 48%  (+1)
Bernie Sanders- 46%  (+-0)
Undecided- 6%  (-1)

Democratic Primary (Rhode Island )-
Barack Obama- 48%  (+-0)
Bernie Sanders- 48%  (+-0)
Undecided- 4%  (+-0)

Barack Obama vs Donald Trump (General)
Barack Obama- 56%  (+-0)
Donald Trump- 34%  (+1)
Other/Undecided- 10%  (-1)
OBAMA +22

Bernie Sanders vs Donald Trump (General)
Bernie Sanders- 54%  (+1)
Donald Trump- 35%  (+1)
Other/Undecided- 11%  (-2)
SANDERS +19
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Parrotguy
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« Reply #60 on: October 20, 2017, 01:09:42 pm »
« Edited: November 10, 2017, 06:03:59 am by Parrotguy »

April 19th, 2016

Obama wins New York Primary; Sanders Campaign on the ropes



NEW YORK CITY - The Sanders campaign hoped for a different result here tonight, but it did not come to pass. President Barack Obama, carried by a strong popularity in the state and armed with the endorsements of its two Senators, its Governor and the mayor of its biggest City, won the state of New York by a solid margin, nearly in the double digits.

Indeed, the President's victory speech before a large crowd in his campaign's NYC headquarters almost sounded like a proclamation of victory in the primaries. He did not even mention Sanders' name, save for one time when he thanked him for "running a spirited campaign", and focused mainly on the Republicans. In one part of the speech, which went immediately viral, Obama jabbed Republican frontrunner Donald Trump, quirking that "Donald Trump thinks New Yorkers will support him because he was born here, but I'm gonna need to see a birth certificate to believe that". The birther movement that Trump lead, considered racist by many, is expected to be a main line of attack for the Obama campaign in the general election, assuming both frontrunners do win their party's nomination.

Though there was a frevour of rumours that Sanders would drop out of the race after New York was called for Obama a mere twenty minutes after poll closing time, he did not do it in the end. The Independent Senator spoke to a disappointed but still enthusiastic crowd of supporters, promising that "this is not the end" and that "we will continue fighting for a political revolution because the survival of the American working class depends on it". Nonetheless, the Sanders campaign is considered on the ropes- fundraising is growing alarmingly weaker, and according to inside sources, the northeastern primaries next week are considered make-or-break. If Sanders is unable to do well then, the sources claim, the Sanders campaign will transfer from a campaign intending to win into a protest candidacy, attempting to take as many delegates as possible in favourable states such as West Virginia or Kentucky.

As expected, the split between Obama and Sanders almost looked like a Democrat VS Republican map. Obama won big margins in the five boroughs of New York, save for Staten Island, which Sanders won, and in Long Island. Meanwhile, Sanders did very well in upstate, rural counties, winning most of them. Once again, minorities propelled the President to victory, as Sanders won 51-46 among whites and Obama won 90-9 and 61-36 among black and latino voters respectively. Once again, Sanders won narrowly among white voters while Obama took the rest. Sanders also swept independents 76-24, while Obama easily won those who identified as Democrats 64-34. Let's look at the results:


Democratic New York Primary results, 100% counted:
Barack Obama- 52.0% (138 pledged delegates) ✓
Bernie Sanders- 41.5% (109 pledged delegates)
Hillary Clinton- 6.3% (0 pledged delegates)
Others- 0.2% (0 pledged delegates)
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« Reply #61 on: October 20, 2017, 02:49:50 pm »
« Edited: October 20, 2017, 03:02:26 pm by Parrotguy »

April 19th, 2016

Obama wins New York Primary; Sanders Campaign on the ropes



NEW YORK CITY - The Sanders campaign hoped for a different result here tonight, but it did not come to pass. President Barack Obama, carried by a strong popularity in the state and armed with the endorsements of its two Senators, its Governor and the mayor of its biggest City, won the state of New York by a solid margin, nearly in the double digits.

Indeed, the President's victory speech before a large crowd in his campaign's NYC headquarters almost sounded like a proclamation of victory in the primaries. He did not even mention Sanders' name, save for one time when he thanked him for "running a spirited campaign", and focused mainly on the Republicans. In one part of the speech, which went immediately viral, Obama jabbed Republican frontrunner Donald Trump, quirking that "Donald Trump thinks New Yorkers will support him because he was born here, but I'm gonna need to see a birth certificate to believe that". The birther movement that Trump lead, considered racist by many, is expected to be a main line of attack for the Obama campaign in the general election, assuming both frontrunners do win their party's nomination.

Though there was a frevour of rumours that Sanders would drop out of the race after New York was called for Obama a mere twenty minutes after poll closing time, he did not do it in the end. The Independent Senator spoke to a disappointed but still enthusiastic crowd of supporters, promising that "this is not the end" and that "we will continue fighting for a political revolution because the survival of the American working class depends on it". Nonetheless, the Sanders campaign is considered on the ropes- fundraising is growing alarmingly weaker, and according to inside sources, the northeastern primaries next week are considered make-or-break. If Sanders is unable to do well then, the sources claim, the Sanders campaign will transfer from a campaign intending to win into a protest candidacy, attempting to take as many delegates as possible in favourable states such as West Virginia or Kentucky.

As expected, the split between Obama and Sanders almost looked like a Democrat VS Republican map. Obama won big margins in the five boroughs of New York, save for Staten Island, which Sanders won, and in Long Island. Meanwhile, Sanders did very well in upstate, rural counties, winning most of them. Once again, minorities propelled the President to victory, as Sanders won 51-46 among whites and Obama won 90-9 and 61-36 among black and latino voters respectively. Once again, Sanders won narrowly among white voters while Obama took the rest. Sanders also swept independents 76-24, while Obama easily won registered Democrats 64-34. Let's look at the results:


Democratic New York Primary results, 100% counted:
Barack Obama- 52.0% (138 pledged delegates) ✓
Bernie Sanders- 41.5% (109 pledged delegates)
Hillary Clinton- 6.3% (0 pledged delegates)
Others- 0.2% (0 pledged delegates)
NY was a closed primary where only Registered Democrats were allowed to vote, so shouldn't Obama's margin among Registered Democrats be the exact same as his margin statewide?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_Democratic_primary,_2016
I was going by that article, where it said that Sanders won independents overwhelmingly, and that they were 14% of the electorate. Is it wrong?
EDIT: I guess that the problem is in the 'registered' part. Edited, thanks for pointing it out! Is it good now?
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« Reply #62 on: October 20, 2017, 03:03:19 pm »

April 26th, 2016

Obama triumphs in all five northeastern contents, ending hopes for a Sanders victory



PHILADELPHIA - In what probably represents the final blow to the insurgent Sanders campaign, President Obama sweeped all five northeastern contests today, earning large margins in most of them. The only hope for the Vermont Senator was to win strong victories in Pennsylvannia and Rhode Island, but it did not come to pass. Clearly, Obama's popularity was just too high in these states, and it did not harm that Vice President Biden campaigned with him in states like Delaware and Pennsylvannia.

While the President proclaimed victory in the primaries, calling for Sanders to drop out and saying that "it's time to unite and face the Republicans as a strong, progressive force", it seemed like the Independent insurgent Senator still has other plans. In his speech, Sanders conceded that there was "probably" no chance to him to win the nomination, but urged his supporters in the next states to come out and vote for him, because "we can only influence the Democratic Party's platform by coming to the convention as a strong force".


Democratic Connecticut Primary results, 100% counted:
Barack Obama- 55.9% (31 pledged delegates) ✓
Bernie Sanders- 43.6% (24 pledged delegates)
Others- 0.5% (0 pledged delegates)


Democratic Delaware Primary results, 100% counted:
Barack Obama- 70.7% (15 pledged delegates) ✓
Bernie Sanders- 29.0% (6 pledged delegates)
Others- 0.3% (0 pledged delegates)


Democratic Maryland Primary results, 100% counted:
Barack Obama- 64.6% (62 pledged delegates) ✓
Bernie Sanders- 33.9% (33 pledged delegates)
Others- 1.5% (0 pledged delegates)


Democratic Pennsylvannia Primary results, 100% counted:
Barack Obama- 53.1% (101 pledged delegates) ✓
Bernie Sanders- 46.2% (88 pledged delegates)
Rocky De La Fuente- 0.7% (0 pledged delegates)


Democratic Rhode Island Primary results, 100% counted:
Barack Obama- 49.9% (13 pledged delegates) ✓
Bernie Sanders- 48.0% (11 pledged delegates)
Others- 2.1% (0 pledged delegates)

And finally, let's observe the current state of the Democratic race:

Democratic Primaries

American Samoa
Guam
Northern Mariana Islands
US Virgin Islands
Democrats Abroad


Barack Obama- 1609 pledged delegates
Bernie Sanders- 1116 pledged delegates
Hillary Clinton- 312 pledged delegates
Others- 0 pledged delegates
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« Reply #63 on: October 21, 2017, 03:53:28 am »

May 4th, 2016

Obama, Trump win Indiana; Cruz and Kasich suspend campaigns, ending GOP primary



INDIANAPOLIS - As the primary contests come down from the northeast to the final states to vote, it seems like they're coming to an end, leaving states in Applachia and the West Coast little say in who will be the nominee of each major party.

On the Republican side, Donald Trump defeated Ted Cruz and John Kasich in what was considered their last chance to turn the race around. As a response, both dropped out of the race, first the Texas Senator and then the Ohio Governor. With that, Trump, the business mogul and reality TV star who stunned the Republican establishment by winning the primaries on a populist message, becomes the presumptive nominee of the Republican party. However, it's not looking very good for him or for the Grand Old Party- President Obama, the Democratic frontrunner, is leading Trump by huge margins according to the polls, and his approvals seem to be ticking up every day, currently in the mid-fifties.

With these numbers, the Trump campaign is facing a worrying obstacle- choosing a Vice Presidential nominee. According to inside sources, this process is turning out to be surprisingly hard, as key GOP officeholders signal their unwillingness to join a ticket with Mr. Trump and be associated with his, as some called it "dead on arrival" campaign.

Bernie Sanders, meanwhile, seems to be losing steam with every passing day. He lost Indiana, a state where he was favoured, and more and more Democratic officials are pressing him to suspend his campaign and let the President concentrate on the general election. Sanders, though, said that "it was always about sending a message" and seemed ardent on contuining at least until the June 7th primaries.


Democratic Indiana Primary results, 100% counted:
Barack Obama- 54.9% (46 pledged delegates) ✓
Bernie Sanders- 45.1% (37 pledged delegates)
Others- 0.0% (0 pledged delegates)

But with the Democratic primaries practically decided, the eyes are turning towards the party's Vice Presidential nomination. Most expected Vice President Biden to continue on Obama's ticket, being a good friend and a popular politician, but when asked about the matter on a recent interview, Biden said "we'll see", and when asked to elaborate, said that "it might be time to have a fresh face on the ticket, someone to represent the next generation of Democratic politicians. We'll see." Indeed, rumours are swirling that Obama and Biden are contemplating changing the composition of the ticket, and Press Secretary Josh Earnest claimed that "this is entirely Vice Presidnet Biden's choice" and that "the President is ready to run on the same ticket if his friend wishes the same".
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« Reply #64 on: October 23, 2017, 05:52:49 am »

Amazing developments! Is Biden staying on?

He might... Or he might not. I'm actually thinking about making this a (non-binding) poll, when the shortlists start leaking.
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« Reply #65 on: November 10, 2017, 07:10:56 am »

June 7th, 2016

Obama triumphs in last Democratic contests; Trump struggles in finding a running mate



SACRAMENTO - The Democratic primaries reached their final stages with the June 7th contests in some of the biggest states in the union. President Barack Obama, already the presumptive nominee for all intents and purposes, won a large triumph in most states, including the most delegate-rich ones. With that final blow, the President's challenger, Senator Bernie Sanders, is expected to withdraw from the race very soon.

With the primary season over, the general election between incumbent President Barack Obama and Republican nominee Donald Trump is starting to heat up, and polling is looking bleak for the business mogul. He's losing to the President by double digits, his personal approval is the worst of any major party nominee ever, and after a bruising primary against Ted Cruz and John Kasich, both of whom still didn't endorse him, Trump is finding it hard to unite the Republican base. Rumours continue to swirl that major Republican office holders are consistently refusing to take the Vice Presidential nomination.

Meanwhile, Barack Obama seems to be quickly uniting the party- his approval ratings are on the sunny side of 50% and among Sanders voters they're north of 80%, and rising- and with the Independent Vermont Senator set to endorse him soon, they're only expected to rise. The rumours that Joe Biden might withdraw from the Vice Presidential spot continue, and Democratic office holders are jockeying to run with the popular incumbent President.

Let's look at the results, including from some states who voted before today, in order to see how the Democratic race unfolded over the weeks after the blow dealt to Sanders by Indiana voters.


Democratic Guam Caucuses results, 100% counted:
Barack Obama- 66.3% (5 pledged delegates) ✓
Bernie Sanders- 33.7% (2 pledged delegates)
Others- 0.0% (0 pledged delegates)


Democratic West Virginia Primary results, 100% counted:
Bernie Sanders- 54.9% (17 pledged delegates) ✓
Barack Obama- 40.1% (12 pledged delegates)
Others- 5.0% (0 pledged delegates)


Democratic Kentucky Primary results, 100% counted:
Bernie Sanders- 49.4% (29 pledged delegates) ✓
Barack Obama- 46.4% (26 pledged delegates)
Others- 4.2% (0 pledged delegates)


Democratic Oregon Primary results, 100% counted:
Barack Obama- 49.5% (31 pledged delegates) ✓
Bernie Sanders- 49.1% (30 pledged delegates)
Others- 1.4% (0 pledged delegates)


Democratic Virgin Islands Caucuses results, 100% counted:
Barack Obama- 91.6% (6 pledged delegates) ✓
Bernie Sanders- 8.4% (1 pledged delegates)
Others- 0.0% (0 pledged delegates)


Democratic Puerto Rico Primary results, 100% counted:
Barack Obama- 64.8% (39 pledged delegates) ✓
Bernie Sanders- 35.0% (21 pledged delegates)
Rocky De La Fuente- 0.2% (0 pledged delegates)


Democratic California Primary results, 100% counted:
Barack Obama- 58.8% (282 pledged delegates) ✓
Bernie Sanders- 40.1% (193 pledged delegates)
Others- 1.1% (0 pledged delegates)


Democratic Montana Primary results, 100% counted:
Barack Obama- 49.1% (11 pledged delegates) ✓
Bernie Sanders- 48.3% (10 pledged delegates)
Others- 2.6% (0 pledged delegates)


Democratic New Jersey Primary results, 100% counted:
Barack Obama- 67.6% (85 pledged delegates) ✓
Bernie Sanders- 32.4% (41 pledged delegates)
Others- 0.0% (0 pledged delegates)


Democratic New Mexico Primary results, 100% counted:
Barack Obama- 58.3% (20 pledged delegates) ✓
Bernie Sanders- 41.7% (14 pledged delegates)
Others- 0.0% (0 pledged delegates)


Democratic North Dakota Caucuses results, 100% counted:
Bernie Sanders- 53.5% (11 pledged delegates) ✓
Barack Obama- 41.9% (7 pledged delegates)
Others- 4.6% (0 pledged delegates)


Democratic South Dakota Primary results, 100% counted:
Barack Obama- 52.4% (11 pledged delegates) ✓
Bernie Sanders- 47.6% (9 pledged delegates)
Others- 0.0% (0 pledged delegates)
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« Reply #66 on: November 10, 2017, 08:08:49 am »

"Look at this, Barack." David approached him with a smile, holding his smartphone. "These numbers are amazing."

He held out the phone, and the President saw that it was a private poll conducted for his campaign by PPP in Arizona. At first, he thought that the lack of sleep was finally getting to him and rubbed his eyes. Obama 50%, Trump 47%, Johnson 3%... He looked at David incredulously. "This is a Republican state!"

The campaign strategist nodded excitedly. "Indeed. And we think that Georgia might be within reach as well... Trump is truly a gift, Barack. But we shouldn't release this poll yet, I think, lest the media gets too excited. This can cause a counter-effect, Republicans will keep hearing 'the Democrats are winning Arizona' and rethink it."

"A gift?" A new, pleasant voice joined the conversation, and Michelle approached them. "No, not at all, David. I know polls are saying that it's easier to defeat him, but I'm worried... this guy is nasty." She put a hand on Barack's shoulder. "Come. Bernie is reaching the point."

They approached the edge of the backstage and looked at the stage before it. Senator Sanders had his back to them, standing behind the podium and speaking in his loud, grumbly voice to a huge crowd of thousands.


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The President hugged Michelle. "Good luck," she whispered, "show them you're with them."
He felt his legs moving as he walked towards the stage with a wide smile and hugged his former rival. Barack approached the podium and looked at the huge crowd of Sanders supporters. "I want to thank my friend, Senator Sanders, for this very important endorsement..."



June 9th, 2016

Bernie Sanders suspends his campaign, gives rousing endorsement of Obama



CLEVELAND - In a big, crowded rally held in Cleveland, Ohio, Independent Senator Bernie Sanders finally suspended his campaign for President. In the same breath, Sanders conceded the race to the presumptive nominee of the Democratic Party, Barack Obama, and gave an enthusiastic, rousing endorsement of him.

Obama appeared in the rally, which consisted mostly of Sanders supporters, and accepted the endorsement, laying his case before the Independent Senator's supporters. Noteably, Obama pledged to fight Citizens United and make sure that "disastrous decision" is repealed. He also endorsed universal healthcare, though he did not specifically mention a single-payer system, and spoke out on an issue that aliented Sanders supporters from him- Standing Rock. Obama said that "we will reach a just solution for both the locals and American energy independence, and soon."

This came a day after he was endorsed by a different former rival, Secretary Hillary Clinton, in another big rally held in Richmond, Virginia, and it looks like Obama's third campaign is starting on a very high note, especially compared to the bleak start of the Trump campaign.
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« Reply #67 on: November 10, 2017, 09:57:30 am »
« Edited: November 10, 2017, 03:16:37 pm by Parrotguy »

June 15th, 2016

FINAL RESULTS FOR THE DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES:

Democratic Primaries

American Samoa
Guam
Northern Mariana Islands
US Virgin Islands
Democrats Abroad


Barack Obama- 51.6%, 2210 pledged delegates, 698 super delegates, total: 2908 delegates ✓
Bernie Sanders- 31.8%, 1531 pledged delegates, 11 super delegates, total: 1542 delegates
Hillary Clinton- 12.4%, 312 pledged delegates, 1 super delegate, total: 313 pledged delegates
Others- 4.2%, 0 delegates

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« Reply #68 on: November 10, 2017, 11:14:57 am »

What would be Trump's reaction? Possibly this: Tongue

@realdonaldtrump
Democrat Party just nominated FAILED @POTUS again. I will win election big league. Enthusiasm is on our side- O is WEAK on trade, ISIS, jobs, healthcare, border etc


@realdonaldtrump
Crazy Bernie just lukewarm endorsed FAILED @POTUS. Lots of his supporters will vote TRUMP b/c they want great trade deals. China & others won't rip us off much longer!


@realdonaldtrump
Election should be cancelled & given to Trump since O released a FAKE birth certificate. Shouldn't even be allowed to run!

Well, I was planning to make one, but since I couldn't possibly do it better... Tongue Here:



And a little bonus:

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« Reply #69 on: November 10, 2017, 04:10:30 pm »

SPECIAL: THE 2004 GENERAL ELECTION



After the conventions concluded for both parties, the 2004 general election campaign finally begun. It was a contentious affair, with Bush still retaining some popularity from his handling of 9/11 and the Democrats running with a strong message against the Iraq war, championed by the Gore/Dean ticket. Polls were tight all the way through, showing the candidates neck-in-neck, with Gore leading some polls and Bush leading others. However, the Iraq war was growing unpopular, with reports throughout election season that the country did not, in fact, had weapons of mass destruction troubling the Bush campaign.

And indeed, at first, it seemed like the Gore campaign was doing well. He forcefully countered the dirty campaigning of Karl Rove by hammering Bush on the Iraq War and the economy, earning a narrow lead in the polls throughout September.



In the first debate, which was focused on domestic policy but strayed to the Iraq War and the War on Terror, Al Gore managed to win decisively, appealing to working class voters by promising to "put medicaid in a lockbox" and to anti-war voters by, once again, forcefully attacking Bush's handling of the Iraq War. In the Vice Presidential debate, Dean was considered the winner as well, with Cheney appearig too bland and cold near Dean's charisma and passionate opposition to the war. For a while, polls showed leads as large as 5% for Gore, and his forceful campaigning bore fruit.

But it was, perhaps, too forceful.



The second Presidential debate, in a townhall format, was when Bush tried to make his comeback- and he succeeded. The President joked and appeared charismatic and connected to people, while the former Vice President looked tense and, at times, angry. The most famous point in the debate was when Gore seemed to intimidate Bush, walking behind him threateningly. This did not resount well with voters, who started to get sick of negative, forceful campaigning: polls showed that more than 60% of voters were very insatisfied with the way the campaign was handled, and, ironically, Gore was the one who was blamed the most for it, despite Karl Rove's famously dirty campaigning.

Bush won the second debate decisively and quickly closed the gap in the polls, especially with the economy appearing in a strong shape. In the third debate, focused on foreign policy, Bush performed surprisingly well despite the unfavourable topic- he made a fairly eloquant defence of the Iraq War and turn the negative attention to Gore- joking about the Vice President's "canned lines" after Gore repeated the 'lockbox' line from the first debate.

In the end, when election day dawned on America, Bush managed to close the gap with Gore and was leading many of the polls. It was to be a tight election, but the Democrats were increasingly pessimistic, and bitterness about the big victory they thought to get back in September slipping off their hands was already spreading. The results did not surprise many:



It wasn't a landslide, there weren't any upsets. Most states voted like the polls predicted, with a few noteable exceptions- New Mexico went stronger for Bush than expected, Missouri was tighter than initially thought and Gore won bigger margins in Wisconsin, Iowa, Pennsylvania and Michigan than the polls predicted. Ohio was the tightest state, with Bush winning 49.6-49.4, and many Democrats urged Gore to contest the state, as it would've given him the victory. But Gore declined to do so, citing Bush's 2-point popular vote victory and saying that he did not want to defy the will of the people (in what seemed like a jab to the incumbent President, considering Bush won the 2000 election while losing the popular vote to President Bill Clinton).

Bush won another term, but considering what happened in 2008, some Democrats, with hindsight, are thankful.

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« Reply #70 on: November 11, 2017, 05:58:49 am »

June 18th, 2016

2016 DEMOCRATIC VEEPSTAKES, part 1: Leaked shortlists show Obama contemplating a Biden replacement



WASHINGTON, D.C. - As the nominating processes for both major parties finally come to an end and the general election heats up, the next, and perhaps most important step for the two nominees looms closer: choosing a running mate.

Most observers wrote off the Democratic veepstakes and assumed that Biden, a good personal friend of the President and a very popular politician, would remain on as Obama's running mate. But as rumours are increasingly swirling that Biden is contemplating an exit and might not seek reelection as Vice President, the eyes are turning towards the Obama campaign's running mate shortlists. Two days ago, a fairly large shortlist was leaked to the Washington Post featuring the President's options for VP, and it has some interesting names. It appears like Barack Obama is angling for a young, dynamic running mate who'd contemplate him and rally the Democratic base. Let's look at these names, as well as some names which didn't appear, but are rumoured to be very much in contention:


Name: Joe Robinette Biden Jr.
Age: 73
Past jobs: U.S. Senator from Delaware (1973-2009), Vice President of the United States (2009-)
Why is he being considered: Biden is a good friend of Obama, a running mate by all meanings of the phrase, and, if he himself makes the decision to seek reelection as Vice President, is considered certain to be chosen as the President's running mate again. Holding high approval ratings and immense popularity with the electorate, the only thing that stops Biden from running with Obama again is his own personal decision.


Name: Elizabeth Ann Warren
Age: 67
Past jobs: Special advisor for the CFPB (2010-2011), U.S. Senator from Massachusetts (2013-)
Why is she being considered: Warren was the champion of the firebrand progressive wing in the Democratic party before Bernie Sanders even jumped into the race. In fact, for a long while, she was urged by progressives to make a run for the Democratic nomination, and only after she refused, Bernie Sanders entered the race. Though some Sanders supporters spite her for not endorsing the Independent Senator, Warren is still beloved by the party's progressive wing, and seems to have all that Sanders himself lacks as a potential running mate for Obama- relative youth and the diversity of a woman. But some among Obama's circle fear that she's still too old, and that she might alienate independents, making her a strong but clearly not certain contender in the veepstakes.


Name: Timothy Michael Kaine
Age: 58
Past jobs: Member of the Richmond City Council (1994-2001), Mayor of Richmond (1998-2001), Lieutenant Governor of Virginia (2002-2006), Governor of Virginia (2006-2010), Chairman of the DNC (2009-2011), U.S. Senator from Virginia (2013-)
Why is he being considered: With his very impressive resume and relative youth, Tim Kaine was in Obama's shortlist way back in 2008, and now, with the experience of a U.S. Senator, seems even more attractive- he's likeable and moderate, compliments Obama's energy with calm stability, and his experience would make him an undoubtedly competent advisor. But is he too "bland and boring", as some pundits claimed, and too disliked by the progressive wing of the party?


Name: Cory Anthony Booker
Age: 47
Past jobs: Member of the Newark City Council (1998-2002), Mayor of Newark (2006-2013), U.S. Senator from New Jersey (2013-)
Why is he being considered: Booker reminds many of Barack Obama- he's young, African American and charismatic. Stories of his folksy courage and charitable tedency as Mayor made him hyped up as a potential Presidential contender, but recently, connections to Wall Street seem to be bogging him down with the Bernie wing. Is he too similar to Obama for comfort, and too connected to Wall Street, or is he the man to choose?


Name: JuliŠn Castro
Age: 42
Past jobs: Mayor of San Antonio (2009-2014), Secretary of Housing and Urban Development (2014-)
Why is he being considered: Young, charismatic and Hispanic, Castro has been hyped up as the future of the Democratic Party. His appeal as a running mate could be increased margins with the Hispanic community, which would put states like Florida and Arizona in a more favourable position for Democrats, but some are claiming that he's just another "empty suit".


Name: Thomas James Vilsack
Age: 65
Past jobs: Mayor of Mount Pleasant (1987-1992), Member of the Iowa Senate (1993-1999), Governor of Iowa (1999-2007), Secretary of Agriculture (2009-)
Why is he being considered: With his folksy demeanor, home advantage in the swingstate of Iowa and popularity with rural voters, Tom Vilsack, a loyal Obama ally, is considered an interesting choice that could appeal to voters Obama was struggling with. But some consider him too boring, and a man of the past.


Name: Amy Jean Klobucher
Age: 56
Past jobs: County Attorney of Hennepin County (1999-2007), U.S. Senator
from Minnesota (2007-)
Why is she being considered: With the added historical advantage of a woman on the ticket and her immense popularity with voters in her homestate, Klobucher could be an interesting choice that appeals to both working class voters and female voters. But some see her as too bland and boring.
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« Reply #71 on: November 11, 2017, 06:01:17 am »
« Edited: November 11, 2017, 09:46:40 am by Parrotguy »

June 18th, 2016

2016 DEMOCRATIC VEEPSTAKES, part 2




Name: Kirsten Elizabeth Gillibrand
Age: 49
Past jobs: Member of the U.S. House of Representatives from New York's 20th district (2007-2009), U.S. Senator from New York (2009-)
Why is she being considered: Hillary Clinton's replacement in the Senate, Gillibrand is energetic, young and dynamic, and if the President wants a woman as his running mate, she could cover the minuses of Elizabeth Warren and Amy Klobucher. But will her past as a blue dog hurt her chances?


Name: Sherrod Campbell Brown
Age: 64
Past jobs: Member of the Ohio House of Representatives from the 61st district (1975-1983), Secretary of State of Ohio (1983-1991), Member of the U.S. House of Representatives from Ohio's 13th district (1993-2007), U.S. Senator from Ohio (2007-)
Why is he being considered: With his folksy demeanor, rough voice and populist stances, Brown is a very attractive choice- he'd put the crucial swing state of Ohio in favourable territory for the President, earn support from working class voters, consolidate the progressive wing and compliment Obama's pluses with his own. But as he will be replaced in the Senate with a Republican chosen by John Kasich, is it worth it?


Name: Eric Michael Garcetti
Age: 45
Past jobs: Member of the Los Angeles City Council from the 13th district (2001-2013), Mayor of Los Angeles (2013-)
Why is he being considered: Young, Jewish and Mexican American, Garcetti seems to check many boxes for President Obama. With his charisma and energy, he could energize many voters and grow up to be a strong heir for the President. But will his lack of experience and similarity to Obama hurt his chances?


Name: Alan Stuart "Al" Franken
Age: 65
Past jobs: U.S. Senator from Minnesota (2009-)
Why is he being considered: With the strong charisma of a former SNL writer and the popularity with working class voters of a Minnesota Senator, Franken is considered a dark horse choice for the President. While he wouldn't add the female advantage of his fellow Senator, Klobucher, he could be more charismatic than her and would be replaced in the Senate by a Democrat. Will Obama go for Franken?


Name: Jeff Alan Merkley
Age: 60
Past jobs: Member of the Oregon House of Representatives from the 47th district (1999-2009), U.S. Senator from Oregon (2009-)
Why is he being considered: Another darkhorse option, Merkley is the only Senator to endorse Bernie Sanders, and as such, could be an attractive choice to consolidate the progressive wing. He also hails from a rural part of Oregon, and could attract rural voters. But the fact that he did not endorse the President in the primary could be problematic for their working relationship.


Name: Melinda Ann Gates
Age: 52
Past jobs: Co-founder of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
Why is he being considered: An interesting name revealed by the Obama shortlists, and the only non-politician to appear there, the philantropist and wife of Bill Gates is a popular and powerful woman, and could appeal to female voters and independents. But will she alienate the progressive wing?


Name: Bernard "Bernie" Sanders
Age: 75
Past jobs: Mayor of Burlington (1981-1989), Member of the U.S. House of Representatives from Vermont's at-large district (1991-2007), U.S. Senator from Vermont (2007-)
Why is he being considered: While strangely absent from the shortlists, Sanders' strong performance in the Democratic primary inevitably makes him part of the speculations. He would certainly consolidate the progressive wing, but could he be too old, and too alienating to moderate voters, to be chosen?

Other possible names: Governor Terry McAuliffe (D-VA), Secretary Hillary Clinton (D-NY), Representative Tim Ryan (D-OH), Secretary Tom Perez (D-MD), Admiral James Stavridis (D-FL), Senator Martin Heinrich (D-NM), Governor John Hickenlooper (D-CO), Senator Bill Nelson (D-FL)



I'm planning to make this a (non-binding) referendum to see who the people want as running mates when I present the Trump list (which will likely be shorter than the Obama one) Smiley But until then, do tell me your opinions- who would you like to see as Obama's next VP nominee?
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« Reply #72 on: November 11, 2017, 08:14:44 am »
« Edited: November 11, 2017, 09:28:32 am by Parrotguy »

June 21st, 2016

2016 REPUBLICAN VEEPSTAKES, part 1: Trump struggling to convince popular Republicans that he can win



WASHINGTON, D.C. - Donald Trump has a problem. A big problem. Polls are showing him trailing President Obama anywhere between 10 and 20 points, with the incumbent President being popular with the electorate and the business mogul increasingly toxic thanks to his rhetoric. As a result, many Republican officeholders are, according to various sources, refusing to be considered for his running mate. Some have done so publicly- Senator Bob Corker (R-TN) recently said that he will "not be Donald Trump's running mate", and Senator Joni Ernst (R-IA) stated that she wishes to "focus" on her job as Senator and dropped out of consideration, after a chatter of rumours claimed that she was the leading candidate.

But others have done so less publicly, telling associates that they won't accept an offer to be Trump's Vice Presidential nominee, and this is turning into a problem for the Republican nominee... he just can't find a running mate. The names on various leaked shortlists reflect this- they include a heavy number of Trump loyalists and radical politicians from red states who would find it hard to appeal to the general electorate or help the Republicans in any key swing states. Let's look at these names and try to understand who could become Donald Trump's Vice Presidential nominee:


Name: Newton Leroy Gingrich
Age: 73
Past jobs: Member of the U.S. House of Representatives from Georgia's 6th district (1979-1999), Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives (1995-1999)
Why is he being considered: The leader of the 1994 Republican Revolution and a failed 2012 candidate, Gingrich did not endorse Trump in the primary but recently started to defend him. Outspoken and sharp, he's considered popular among conservatives and could help Trump to consolidate him, but could an old, 70+ white man be too similar to Trump for comfort?


Name: Benjamin Solomon Carson Sr.
Age: 65
Past jobs: Famous neurosurgeon and author
Why is he being considered: One of the early endorsers of Donald Trump and popular amongst conservatives, Ben Carson could be an attractive choice for Trump that would consolidate the Republican base and redouble on his outsider appeal. But Carson proved to be a sleepy campaigner, and his lack of experience, coupled with Trump's own lack of experience, could prove a problem.


Name: John Richard Kasich
Age: 64
Past jobs: Member of the Ohio Senate from the 15th district (1979-1983), Member of the U.S. House of Representatives from Ohio's 12th district (1983-2001), Governor of Ohio (2011-)
Why is he being considered: As a source inside the Trump campaign said, "John Kasich is the perfect running mate". Moderate, likeable, with a good record as Governor and Chairman of the House Budget Committee, and very popular, Kasich could brandish Trump's credibility considerably and add to his economic message. But there is one problem- Kasich seems very likely to refuse. Sources close to the Ohio Governor claim that Trump has already made repeated offers to Kasich, and while he still didn't make it public, he refused again and again. Kasich didn't endorse Trump, and seems to become a bigger critic with every passing day.


Name: Christopher James Christie
Age: 54
Past jobs: Member of the Morris County Board of Chosen Freeholders (1995-1997), United States Attorney for the District of New Jersey (2002-2008), Governor of New Jersey (2010-)
Why is he being considered: Chris Christie was, not a long time ago, a very attractive choice, and a leading Presidential contender- a moderate, popular Governor of a blue state who won a strong reelection. But the famous bridgegate scandal soured New Jersey and national voters on Christie, and his popularity slipped quickly- he now is one of the least popular governors in the country. Still, his early endorsement of Trump earned him favour with the business mogul, and if other, more popular choices refuse, Christie's experience could be attractive for Trump.


Name: Sarah Louise Palin
Age: 52
Past jobs: Member of the Wasilla City Council (1992-1996), Mayor of Wasilla (1996-2002), Chair of the Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission (2003-2004), Governor of Alaska (2006-2009)
Why is she being considered: In short, out of necessity. Trump has few willing options, which include John McCain's 2008 Vice Presidential nominee who has high ambitions and who enthusiastically endorsed Donald Trump. But, already having failed to propel a ticket to victory, it's hard to see what does Sarah Palin have to add, other than redoubling on Trump's brash rhetoric.


Name: Michael Richard Pence
Age: 57
Past jobs: Member of the U.S. House of Representatives from Indiana's 2nd/6th district (2001-2013), Governor of Indiana (2013-)
Why is he being considered: A staunch conservative with experience in both Congress and the Governor's mansion of Indiana, Pence might just be what Trump needs- a calm, experienced man who could sooth the Republican establishment while still appealing to white working class voters. But rumour has it that Pence is considering refusing the job, so it remains to be seen if Trump can have him on the ticket.


Name: Mary Fallin
Age: 61
Past jobs: Member of the Oklahoma House of Representatives from the 85th district (1990-1995), Lieutenant Governor of Oklahoma (1995-2007), Member of the U.S. House of Representatives from Oklahoma's 5th district (2007-2011), Governor of Oklahoma (2011-)
Why is she being considered: Fallin is a firebrand Tea Party conservative popular with the base, and possibly one of the few who would accept the position of Trump's running mate, but her rhetoric might be too resembling of Sarah Palin and her extreme conservative actions as Governor might alienate moderates.
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« Reply #73 on: November 11, 2017, 10:01:19 am »
« Edited: November 13, 2017, 04:27:38 am by Parrotguy »

June 21st, 2016

2016 REPUBLICAN VEEPSTAKES, part 2




Name: Scott Phillip Brown
Age: 57
Past jobs: Member of the Massachusetts House of Representatives from the 9th Norfolk district (1998-2004), Member of the Massachusetts Senate from the Norfolk, Bristol and Middlesex district (2004-2010), U.S. Senator from Massachusetts (2010-2013)
Why is he being considered: Brown earned nationwide reknown after surprisingly winning the special Senate election to replace Ted Kennedy in the bluest of blue states, Massachusetts. Even after losing the seat to Elizabeth Warren, he remained a Republican star, moderate and appealing to working class voters. But after carpetbagging to New Hampshire and failing to win the Senate race there in 2014, many voters consider him an opportunist. Still, Brown seems like the only moderate option willing to join Trump's ticket, so he could be a strong contender for the job.


Name: Marsha Blackburn
Age: 64
Past jobs: Member of the Tennessee Senate from the 23rd district (1999-2003), Member of the U.S. House of Representatives from Tennessee's 7th district (2003-)
Why is she being considered: Once again, out of necessity. Blackburn is considered an extreme conservative like Fallin, and her harsh views could alienate moderates. Still, she seems willing to join the ticket and is a fairly charismatic politician, popular with the Republican base.


Name: Refael Edward Cruz
Age: 45
Past jobs: Solicitor General of Texas (2003-2008), U.S. Senator from Texas (2013-)
Why is he being considered: Cruz, the runner-up of the Republican primaries, is very popular with a large chunk of the conservative electorate and could attract evangelicals, as well as brandish Trump's outsider appeal. But is he too extreme, and would he even agree to join the ticket after a very dirty campaign between himself and Trump in the primaries? It's noteable that the Texas Senator didn't even endorse Trump yet.


Name: Marco Antonio Rubio
Age: 45
Past jobs: Member of the Florida House of Representatives from the 111th district (2000-2008), U.S. Senator from Florida (2011-)
Why is he being considered: Despite his lackluster performance in the 2016 primaries, Rubio is still considered a Republican star, and could sooth the Republican establishment, as well as appeal to latino voters, if he joined Trump's ticket. But Rubio and Trump have a very strained past in the primaries, and he signaled an unwillingness to join the ticket. Potentially, he could be the best option after Kasich, but sources close to Rubio say he's contemplating jumping into the Florida Senate race in the last moment and try to seek reelection despite saying he won't.


Name: Michael Thomas Flynn
Age: 57
Past jobs: Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency (2012-2014)
Why is he being considered: Retired General Flynn is a storng supporter of Trump and could strengthen his military credentials, but is a controversial man with controversial statesments. Could he be the wildcard pick for Donald Trump to rebrand himself?


Name: Jefferson Beauregard Sessions III
Age: 69
Past jobs: United States Attorney for the Southern District of Alabama (1981-1993), Attorney General of Alabama (1995-1997), U.S. Senator from Alabama (1997-)
Why is he being considered: Sessions is an early endorser of Trump- the first Senator to support him. He's an experienced congressman and a staunch conservative who could help unite the base, as well as a strong supporter of Trump's immigation agenda, but will allegations for racism sink him?


Name: James Henry Webb Jr.
Age: 70
Past jobs: Assistant Secretary of Defense for Reserve Affairs (1984-1987), Secretary of the Navy (1987-1988), U.S. Senator from Virginia (2007-2013)
Why is he being considered: Perhaps the most curious name to emerge from the Republican shortlist is a Democrat, and one who run in the 2016 primary, no less. But it comes as no surprise that Trump finds a kindered spirit in Webb- both are brash and populist, both try to appeal to disaffected white working class voters, both are considered outsiders. Webb refused to endorse anyone after dropping out of the Democratic Primary and even hinted at a third party run, and, when asked, said he "would not vote for Obama" but might vote for Trump. Choosing Webb could strengthen Trump among independents and veterans. However, his views are far too liberal for most Republicans, and he could incite a conservative revolt.

Other possible names: Governor Susana Martinez (R-NM), Senator Cory Gardener (R-CO), Senator Joni Ernst (R-IA), Senator Bob Corker (R-TN), Senator Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV), Ivanka Trump (R-NY)
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Parrotguy
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« Reply #74 on: November 12, 2017, 08:24:57 am »

June 29th, 2016

REPUBLICAN VEEPSTAKES - John Kasich takes himself out of VP contention: "I will not run or endorse Donald Trump"; Rubio to remain in Florida Senate race, Pence to run for reelection in Indiana



NEW YORK CITY - in a recent interview with CNN's Jake Tapper, Ohio Governor and former contender for the Republican nomination John Kasich officially took himself out of contention to become running mate for the party's nominee, Donald Trump. He denounced Trump in surprisingly fiery words, calling him "a danger to the conservative movement" and "a man who to stir to life some very uncomfortable, even racist memories." He also claimed that Trump's campaign manager called him and offered that if he agreed to run with the business mogul, he'd get the responsibility of governing the nation while Trump would "focus on 'Making America Great Again', as ridiculous as this sounds", the Ohio Governor told Tapper.

When asked if he would agree to become Trump's Vice Presidential nominee, after a source in the Trump campaign described him as "perfect", Kasich reaffirmed that he will "not, under any circumstances, run with Donald Trump", and furthermore, that he will not endorse the Republican nominee "who stands against my values and many of this party's values." However, the Ohio Governor refused to support President Obama or say who would he vote for and claimed that he's weighing his options. On a potential conservative third-party challenge, Kasich said that he "might" support such a move, but that he will not run himself.

In similar news, Marco Rubio, who decided, in August, to surprisingly jump into the race for his Senate seat despite promising not to, reaffirmed that he is running for reelection, essentially putting himself out of contention for Trump's second spot as well. And in what was seen as a big blow to the Trump campaign, which, according to various sources, was leaning towards choosing him for running mate, Indiana Governor Mike Pence declared that he ''will run for reelection in 2016", putting away any possibility of running with Trump. The move is attributed to the business mogul's bad polling numbers, with sources close to Pence saying that the Governor "worried about becoming part of a landslide defeat''.

These news narrowed the options considerably for Trump's VP choice. According to sources close to the Republican nominee, he's "angry and bitter" about Kasich's interview and Pence's decision, which causes him to favour a particular option- Jim Webb- as a kick in the face of the Republican establishment. The same sources claim that Ted Cruz and Sarah Palin are out of contention, leaving only a scarce few options for Trump, none of them particularly appealing- Carson, Christie, Gingrich, Fallin, Blackburn, Brown, Flynn, Sessions and Webb.

Trump campaign manager Cory Lewandowski refused to comment on the news, leaving only a short message claiming that "Donald Trump was not seriously considering these options". But the Republican candidate himself did comment:

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