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  Atlas Forum
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderators: Tegridy Farms, Apocrypha)
  Four More Years - a 2016 Election Timeline (search mode)
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Poll
Question: Who should Obama choose as his Running Mate?
#1
Tim Kaine
#2
Julian Castro
#3
Tom Vilsack
#4
Amy Klobucher
#5
Kirsten Gillibrand
#6
Al Franken
#7
Jeff Merkley
#8
John Hickenlooper
#9
Martin Heinrich
#10
WHO SHOULD TRUMP CHOOSE?
#11
Newt Gingrich
#12
Ben Carson
#13
Chris Christie
#14
Mary Fallin
#15
Scott Brown
#16
Marsha Blackburn
#17
Mike Flynn
#18
Jeff Sessions
#19
Jim Webb
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results


Author Topic: Four More Years - a 2016 Election Timeline  (Read 37269 times)
Parrotguy
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« Reply #75 on: November 12, 2017, 08:56:51 am »

July 3rd, 2016

Sanders "won't be a running mate", prefers focus on Senate; Brown, Booker reportedly out of contention for next Obama VP



WASHINGTON, D.C. - Ending any speculations that President Obama is planning to choose him as running mate in order t o consolidate the Democratic base, Vermont Senator and Democratic runner-up Bernie Sanders announced in an interview that he will "not be a running mate", prefering to focus on "helping the President move progressive agenda in the Senate, and keeping him accountable". This preludes a possible struggle between Sanders and Obama on trade, healthcare and other issues if the President wins reelection for a third term.

The Democratic veepstakes narrowed further this week as credible sources inside the Obama campaign reported to the press that two Senators from states with Republican Governors, Sherrod Brown and Cory Booker, are out of contention. While Booker had a slim chance to be chosen, given his similarity to Barack Obama and the disdain in which he's held by Bernie Sanders' supporters, Sherrod Brown was considered a very attractive option, supported by many Democrats. But apparently, with the Senate uncertain in 2016 and, even more so, in 2018, the Obama campaign decided that the prospect of losing a Senate seat to the Republicans is not worth it.

Rumours continue to swirl that Biden will withdraw from the ticket- his son, Hunter Biden, has recently said that his father was "contemplating the matter" and that even hinting that the Vice President is supportive of "presenting a fresh face". Sources close to Biden claim that he will be making his decision in the coming days.
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« Reply #76 on: November 13, 2017, 05:23:31 am »

July 4th, 2016

BREAKING: Biden won't seek reelection as Vice President


WASHINGTON, D.C. - Making his decision official in a White House press conference on the 4th of July, Vice President Joe Biden, joined by President Barack Obama and his wife Jill Biden, announced that he will not run for another term as Vice President. In a bittersweet message, Biden said that "it's time for a fresh face to join our President on the ticket" and that "it's time for a new generation of progressive leaders to rise". Biden thanked Obama and the American people from the bottom of his heart for the "tremendous honour of serving as your Vice President".

Still very popular with the public, Biden promised to work hard and campaign with his friend to "give Barack four more years to do his wonderful work", and did not rule out a potential role in the next Obama administration. The Republican candidate, of course, was quick to reply:



With that, the veepstakes on the Democratic side became much more contentious, with various strong candidates all being considered for the spot. As Donald Trump struggles to find his own running mate, many eyes are now turned towards the Democratic nominee, the incumbent President, and recent reports indicate that the vetting process for a few of the candidates is already underway. Some of these candidates are rumoured to be Senator Jeff Merkley (D-OR), Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY), Senator Al Franken (D-MN) and Governor John Hickenlooper (D-CO), whose name recently rose up as a strong potential running mate, despite objections from some in the left.

Another important piece of news came yesterday, as Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) ruled out joining President Obama's ticket, saying that "my work is in the Senate". Various sources claim that the reason for this was the Obama campaign signaling to her that she won't be chosen. Two other names which are reportedly out of contention are Melinda Gates, who is, according to sources inside the Obama campaign, too much to stomach for the Sanders wing of the party, and LA Mayor Eric Garcetti who was reportedly urged by Obama allies to run for office in 2018. Instead, two different names are being floated as strong contenders- the afformentioned John Hickenlooper and Senator Martin Heinrich (D-NM). Let's examine them briefly:


Name: John Wright Hickenlooper Jr.
Age: 64
Past jobs: Mayor of Denver (2003-2011), Governor of Colorado (2011-)
Why is he being considered: One of the only Democratic Governors hailing frrm a swing state (although one with polls heavily favouring the President) and a popular one at that, Hickenlooper has a clear appeal- he'd be a non-Senator on the ticket who could claim to be far away from the Washington establishment, and his experience could prove valuable. However, opposition from the left for his moderate positions could harm his chances, and it's unclear how much experience is needed on a ticket with an incumbent President.


Name: Martin Trevor Heinrich
Age: 45
Past jobs: Member of the U.S. House of Representatives from New Mexico's 1st district (2009-2013), U.S. Senator from New Mexico (2013-)
Why is he being considered: Young, folksy, with good looks and hailing from a non-coastal state, Heinrich has an obvious appeal and could compliment President Obama well. But is he too moderate for progressives to stomach?
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Parrotguy
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« Reply #77 on: November 13, 2017, 05:45:21 am »
« Edited: November 13, 2017, 05:54:33 am by Parrotguy »

Wow, I didn't know that good timelines were still produced! The real mystery, I suppose, is if Bush himself is short-sighted enough to seek a third term in 2008, and if so, whether the GOP is even willing to accept it.

I imagine Hillary's alleged electability was harmed, regardless of whether or not she ran against an incumbent President, owing to the fact that the most recent general election featuring the Clintons was a loss.

Thanks! There are actually many great TLs being written rn, mine is not close to being the best of them Tongue
Also, yeah, the 2008 primary will be covered soon. Hillary is still quite formidable, and starts out as the frontrunner, but there are other formidable contenders ready to jump in- 2004 Vice Presidential nominee Howard Dean and Senator John Kerry, for example.

Great timeline!

I like the presentation of potential running mates (I'll consider that for my own TL). Just a minor correction: Flynn wasn't 70 in 2016 Wink

Thanks, it's a honour! Also, yeah, fixed Smiley



Now that we're done with reducing the Vice Presidential lists a bit, it's time for the (non-binding) referendum! Tongue The chosen candidates will become formidable potential candidates in 2020, so choose wisely, because right now I still have no idea who to choose!
Thos who voter have any suggestions for additional candidates, please do tell me- I'll take them into consideration. And I'd be glad if whoever votes in the poll comments his decision, it'll be nice to hear read some voices. Let the voting begin!

EDIT: I seemed to have made this a one-vote poll, which is quite counter-productive. If anyone knows how to edit a poll, or even just delete it without destroying the post, please do tell!
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« Reply #78 on: November 16, 2017, 12:03:21 pm »

First time seeing this one but wouldn't Wisconsin have been a better choice in 2000 to give Bush his theoretical 270+?

I wanted to show that Clinton was able to keep the trends at bay for now in 2000 and win Arkansas, keeping Missouri extremely close.
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« Reply #79 on: November 18, 2017, 07:05:17 am »

July 6th, 2016

Donald Trump announces surprise pick for running mate- Retired General Mike Flynn

 (-2)
OBAMA +11
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« Reply #80 on: November 18, 2017, 07:53:08 am »
« Edited: November 18, 2017, 02:02:13 pm by Parrotguy »

July 9th, 2016

Flynn choice causes a firestorm- Russian ties, tenure at DIA scrutinized; conservative third party rumours swirling again



WASHINGTON, D.C. - He was only chosen as Donald Trump's running mate three days ago, but already, retired General Mike Flynn is knee-deep in mud. Washington Post recently released a photo where Flynn is seated in a RT galla in the same table with Vladimir Putin (and Green Party nominee Jill Stein, who also faced backlash), as well as interviews where Flynn is quoted defending the network, which is considered the Kremlin's propaganda arm in the U.S.

Along with his connections to Russia, Flynn's tenure as director of the DIA was also scrutinzied- according to The New York Times, he exhibited a loose relationship with facts, leading his subordinates to refer to Flynn's repeated dubious assertions as "Flynn facts". Vice President Joe Biden claimed in an interview that Flynn was "abusive towards his subordinates" and "just not a good manager", a claim confirmed by President Obama.

The scandals are already causing prominent Republican officials to call for Flynn to be dropped from the not-yet-nominated ticket. Speaker Paul Ryan, who has been withholding his endorsement from Trump, said that "Flynn is a dangerous choice that must be reverted as soon as possible", RNC Chairman Reince Priebus told press that he hopes Trump makes the "right choice" and "takes someone with better experience as his running mate", and 2008 nominee John McCain spoke in a fiery tone about the "disgrace" in Flynn's choice, saying that he "cannot support a nominee who makes such a bad choice."

The backlash increased the whispers about a possible third-party conservative challenger to Obama and Trump. 2012 nominee Mitt Romney said that he would "absolutely support" such a challenger, but that he won't run himself, and Ohio Governor John Kasich echoed Romney's statement, saying that he needs to focus on his job as Governor, but that he would "love it if someone steps up." New polling released today indicates that a challenger could be successful in gaining a large following:

Barack Obama vs Donald Trump (General)
Barack Obama- 52%  (+1)
Donald Trump- 38%  (-2)
Other/Undecided- 10 %  (+1)
OBAMA +14

Barack Obama vs Donald Trump vs Gary Johnson vs Jill Stein (General)
Barack Obama- 50%  (+1)
Donald Trump- 36%  (-2)
Gary Johnson- 7%  (+1)
Jill Stein- 1%  (+-0)
Other/Undecided- 9 %  (+-0)
OBAMA +14

Barack Obama vs Donald Trump vs Gary Johnson vs Jill Stein vs Conservative Challenger (General)
Barack Obama- 47%  (-2)
Donald Trump- 31%  (-8)
Conservative Challenger- 11%  (+11)
Gary Johnson- 4%   (-2)
Jill Stein- 1%  (+-0)
Other/Undecided- 6%  (-2)
OBAMA +16
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« Reply #81 on: November 18, 2017, 11:33:36 am »
« Edited: November 18, 2017, 02:03:08 pm by Parrotguy »

July 10th, 2016

BREAKING: Jon Huntsman declares independent Presidential bid; calls Trump 'a disaster in the making'



SALT LAKE CITY - For months the rumours have been swirling that a conservative challenger to Donald Trump was going to emerge. Now, it finally did.

Former Governor and Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman (R-UT) announced an independent challenge to Republican nominee Donald Trump and incumbent President Barack Obama in the biggest city of his homestate. Huntsman attacked Trump from both right and left, calling him "not a true conservative" and "a dangerous demagogue." He also called on Republican elected officials to support him, saying that "this is an election about making the moral choice, the right choice" and that he is the only one representing "conservatives who see Trump's protectionism, his disturbing closeness with Russia and his terrible judgement and are frightened."

Speculations already started about Huntsman's running mate- his campaign teased someone with "national prominence", and according to various leaks, some of the options include Colin Powell, Brian Sandoval, Condoleezza Rice, Richard Hanna, Tom Coburn, Ben Sasse and retired Marine Corps General James Mattis. Huntsman, who is already gathering signatures at a fast pace with a prepared infaustracture of activists and donors, is expected to make the choice in the coming days.

The challenge worries many inside the Trump campaign and the RNC, especially as Huntsman has a strong appeal to Mormons, a demographic which, according to the polls, has strong disapproval of the Republican nominee. He also appeals to moderate conservative subarbanites, which might hurt Trump in states like Virginia, Pennsylvania and North Carolina. Polls conduct after Huntsman's entrance show him doing worse than a generic challenger, but still polling pretty high:

Barack Obama vs Donald Trump vs Jon Huntsman vs Gary Johnson vs Jill Stein (General)
Barack Obama- 48%  (+1)
Donald Trump- 32%  (+1)
Jon Huntsman- 9%  (-2)
Gary Johnson- 4%  (+-0)
Jill Stein- 1%  (+-0)
Other/Undecided- 6%  (+-0)
OBAMA +16

This prompted RNC chairman Reince Priebus to call for Huntsman to withdraw and to claim that "Huntsman is doing a great disservice to the Conservative movement". And, of course, the Republican nominee responded as expected:

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« Reply #82 on: November 18, 2017, 12:17:23 pm »
« Edited: November 18, 2017, 01:43:13 pm by Parrotguy »

July 12th, 2016

Trump drops Flynn from ticket after outrage, scrambles to find a new running mate; Obama VP search continues



NEW YORK CITY - the tumultuous, stormy 2016 campaign continues, as the outcry after Trump chose Mike Flynn as his running mate finally took its toll, with the Republican nominee dropping his choice for running mate from the ticket. The Trump campaign released a short statement saying that "Michael Flynn is no longer the running mate for Donald Trump; we will choose another soon."

The campaign refused to respond to questions about the reasons for Flynn's dismissal, but they're quite clear- he became an albatross that Trump couldn't carry. After Flynn was called a "terrible" DIA director and accused for defending Russia, former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman declared an independent Presidential bid and Republican officials pressed Trump to replace Flynn, the Republican nominee badly needed a fresh start for his campaign, and so, succumbed to the pressure.

While the Trump campaign suffers blow after blow and appears to be managed chaotically, the Obama campaign is calmly and quietly working on vetting the various candidates for Vice President. According to sources inside the President's campaign, various figures are out of consideration: Secretary Julián Castro (D-TX), Secretary Tom Vilsack (D-IA), Senator Amy Klobucher (D-MN), Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and Senator Al Franken (D-MN), who, noteably, appeared to have been "vetted out" after nearly being chosen.

This leaves the Obama veepstakes much narrower than they were- Senator Tim Kaine (D-VA), Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY), Senator Jeff Merkley (D-OR), Governor John Hickenlooper (D-CO) and Senator Martin Heinrich (D-NM) are the names circulating most shortlists. But in the last days, another name rose to prominence and seems to be strongly considered by the Obama campaign- Senator Tammy Baldwin (D-WI). Let's examine her shortly:


Name: Tammy Suzanne Green Baldwin
Age: 54
Past jobs: Member of the Wisconsin State Assembly from the 78th district (1993-1999), Member of the U.S. House of Representatives from Wisconsin's 2nd district (1999-2013), U.S. Senator from Wisconsin (2013-)
Why is she being considered: Baldwin is a lesbian woman who could excite female and lgbtq voters, especially in light of Trump's weakness with them. She's a progressive who's paltable both to the Sanders wing and to the establishment wing of the Democratic party. She hails from a semi-swing state, and she wouldn't necessarily be replaced by a Republican in the Senate, as Wisconsin laws do not allow an interim appointment by the Governor and call for a special election soon after the vacancy. So on the paper, it's not hard to see why is she being considered. But will Obama take the plunge and choose a candidate who could be potentially dangerous, especially in light of recent chaos around Trump's running mate search?
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« Reply #83 on: November 18, 2017, 01:58:21 pm »
« Edited: November 18, 2017, 02:04:09 pm by Parrotguy »

July 15th, 2016

REPORT: Jim Webb says 'no' to Donald Trump VP offer; won't endorse any candidate



RICHMOND - In an interview with MSNBC, former Senator and Presidential contender Jim Webb (D-VA) shut down speculations that he could be chosen as Donald Trump's running mate, saying that "there is no way I will run on that ticket." Webb continued to affirm that he will "not vote for Donald Trump", and seemed to walk back on previous statements ruling out supporting President Obama by claiming that he's "still weighing his options."

Jim Webb confirmed that he was approached, "various times", by the Trump campaign to join the business mogul's ticket, but that he "turned them down each time." The former Senator seemed to echo, and perhaps confirm, claims previously made by John Kasich that Trump offered his favoured candidates for running mate considerable power by saying that "they basically begged for me to join, and told me that I'll be responsible for most governing duties."

Meanwhile, the rumour mill about the veepstakes in both parties continues- according to various sources, Senator Tim Kaine (D-VA) won't be Barack Obama's running mate, and the incumbent President's campaign is "heavily contemplating" Senators Martin Heinrich (D-NM), Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) and Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY), though Governor John Hickenlooper (D-CO) and Senator Jeff Merkley (D-OR) are still options.

Donald Trump, at the same time, is reportedly "deeply frustrated" with his VP struggles, after many prominent Republicans refused to run on the same ticket with him, the Flynn choice backfired, and now Jim Webb, a possible wildcard choice Trump had, said "no" as well. There are now claims from credible sources that Trump is zeroing in on Governor Chris Christie (R-NJ), former Senator Scott Brown (R-MA) and Governor Mary Fallin (R-OK).

As his troubles continue, polls are showing that Trump continues polling very badly, and that Jon Huntsman, the independent conservative candidate, is gaining ground:

Barack Obama vs Donald Trump (General)
Barack Obama- 51%  (+2)
Donald Trump- 40%  (-1)
Other/Undecided- 9%  (-1)
OBAMA +11

Barack Obama vs Donald Trump vs Jon Huntsman vs Gary Johnson vs Jill Stein (General)
Barack Obama- 47%  (-1)
Donald Trump- 31%  (-1)
Jon Huntsman- 11%  (+2)
Gary Johnson- 4%  (+-0)
Jill Stein- 0%  (-1)
Other/Undecided- 7%  (+1)
OBAMA +16
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« Reply #84 on: November 19, 2017, 05:49:21 am »

July 17th, 2016

BREAKING: Donald Trump announces Christie 'final choice' for running mate



TRENTON - After the failed Flynn nomination and all the other hardships he had finding a running mate, business mogul and 2016 Republican nominee Donald Trump has finally made his choice. In what seems like a "last option plan", as a source within the RNC called it, Trump announced Governor and former primary rival Chris Christie (R-NJ) as his candidate for Vice President.

In a rally in Trenton, New Jersey where he presented his pick, Trump lauded Christie as "a reformer with experience who knows how to get change through despite opposition from the crooked Democrats", and even went so far to promise that the Governor will "help win this state, and many other states in the northeast tired of the Democrats' failed policies." Christie, in an upbeat speech, praised Trump as "the change we need" and said that he was "proud" to stand behind the Republican nominee.

While Christie has rich experience and was once considered a very popular Governor and strong contender for the Presidency, his popularity sharply declined after the famous Bridgegate scandal, where he allegedly closed a busy bridge for personal reasons of revenge. After this scandal and continuous troubles with the Democratic New Jersey state legislature, as well as his endorsement of Donald Trump, Christie became one of the least popular Governors in the country, with approval ratings below 30%. Thus, no one in the RNC is under the illusion that the choice will give the Republican ticket any chance in New Jersey like Trump claimed, but Chairman Reince Priebus still congratulated Trump for the pick, saying that he hopes "this will bring stability and credibility to the campaign and let us finally send our message to voters." But already, Trump's opponents are jumping on the scandal:



With the Vice Presidential choice made, the Trump campaign is hastily preparing for the Republican National Convention in Cleveland that will start tomorrow. Many prominent Republicans refused to speak at the convention- including former Presidents George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush, 2012 and 2008 nominees Mitt Romney and John McCain, and the state's Republican Governor, John Kasich. Still, the Trump campaign is hoping that the RNC will be the start of a turnaround. Already, House Speaker Paul Ryan made a tacit endorsement of Trump, saying that he "will support the Republican nominee", and will speak at the convention. This is the status of the polls after the Christie choice and before the RNC:

Barack Obama vs Donald Trump (General)
Barack Obama- 51%  (+-0)
Donald Trump- 41%  (+1)
Undecided- 8%  (-1)
OBAMA +10

Barack Obama vs Donald Trump vs Jon Huntsman vs Gary Johnson vs Jill Stein (General)
Barack Obama- 46%  (-1)
Donald Trump- 32%  (+1)
Jon Huntsman- 11%  (+-0)
Gary Johnson- 5%  (+1)
Jill Stein- 0%  (+-0)
Other/Undecided- 6%  (-1)
OBAMA +14
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« Reply #85 on: November 24, 2017, 08:40:22 am »

July 18th - July 21st, 2016

The Republican National Convention: Amidst controversy, Trump attempts to unite the Republican Party



CLEVELAND - The 2016 Republican National Convention in Cleveland, Ohio was controversial and bombastic, just like the party's nominee for President. Both Donald Trump and party leaders came to the Forest City with the intention of uniting the party around its nominee and consolidating Republican key voters- conservatives, moderates, and, a new addition by Trump, white working class voters.

But where there is Trump, there is controversy. The problems begun for the RNC even before July 18th, as prominent Republicans, including all living former Presidents and Presidential nominees other than Bob Dole, as well as Ohio Governor John Kasich, refused to come to the convention or endorse the Republican nominee. The controversy continued outside of the convention, where numerous protests and counter-protests were held, forcing the police to intervent, and inside it, where gaffes and embarrassments were widely reported by the media. Let's examine the convention more closely, night-by-night, and skim over the major events:

Day 1- Terrorism & Plagiarism



The first day of the RNC, dubbed Make America Safe Again, was supposed to focus on terrorism, national security and crime. And indeed, many of the speakers were meant exactly for that, with veterans, families of terror victims and, controversially, families of crime specificalyl commited by illegal immigrants. But with many prominent Republican congressmen with national security experience, like Senators John McCain (R-AZ) and Lindsey Graham (R-SC) refusing to attend, some felt that the speeches were lackluster. The speeches by non-politicians were considered generally unpolished, and a speech by former Mayor of NYC Rudy Giuliani was criticized as bizarre and feverish.

A speech by Senator Tom Cotton (R-AR) did seem to excite the crowd and deliver a strong message (increasing speculation of a Tom Cotton 2020 Presidential bid), but the real highlight of the night came when the nominee's wife, Melania Trump came to speak. Her speech seemed, at first, powerful and she delivered it well, but it did not take long for the media to pick up on an eery similarity between her speech and that of First Lady Michelle Obama in the 2012 DNC. And indeed, the speeches were nearly identical, prompting accusations of plagiarism and miring the RNC with controversy.

Day 2- Working Class Appeal



In a day dubbed "Make America Work Again", the Republicans tried to appeal to white working class voters, especially in rustbelt and midwest states like Ohio, Iowa and Wisconsin. In the same day, Donald Trump was formally nominated for President and Chris Christie was nominated Vice President.

It was considered the most successful night of the convention, with little controversy and strong speeches from Speaker Paul Ryan, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and Vice Presidential Nominee Chris Christie that attempted to unite the party. However, even the second night was not without its problems- Christie's speech was criticized as too bombastic and "outright offensive", as Vice President Joe Biden called it, with harsh attacks against President Obama, and Trump was criticized for listing both his children, Tiffany and Donald Jr., as headliner speakers.

Day 3- Protectionists Assemble, and... Vote Your Conscious?



The third day of the RNc started well, with powerful speeches from Governor Scott Walker (R-WI), Governor Rick Scott (R-FL) and others, as well as speeches attacking President Obama for his free trade policy and calling for a protectionist, "America First" midset which seems to resonate with many voters. However, then came Ted Cruz.

The Texas Senator and runner-up in the primaries was expected to endorse Trump in the convention, but instead called for conservatives to "vote your conscious". The call, a barely-veiled repudiation of the Republican nominee, enraged the crowd and Cruz was booed away from the stage. But the damage was done, and the next speeches by Newt Gingrich and Eric Trump didn't reverse it.

Day 4- The Donald



The last day of the RNC was dubbed "Make America One Again", and in it, Republicans hoped to finally unite conservative voters around their nominee. But speeches by controversial figures like Joe Arpaio and Peter Thiel didn't seem to promote unity, even though the speech made by Ivanka Trump was praised as "powerful and unifying".

Donald Trump finally gave his own speech by the end of the night- the last speech in the convention-  where he tried to present himself as an agent of change, the "only man who can fix the country". Of course, it received mixed reviews. President Obama called it "doom and gloom" in a New Hampshire rally. Senator Bernie Sanders called it "arrogant". Secretary Hillary Clinton called it "a wild attack against America". But others praised it as an energizing, charismatic speech, and said that Trump looked comfortable and optimistic about his campaign- Rudy Giuliani even noteably called it "the best convention speech since Reagan's Morning in America."

But despite all the controversy, it seems, Republicans came out of Cleveland more united than before, and Trump saw a bump in his polling numbers, with Independent Conservative Jon Huntsman's numbers significantly decreasing.

Barack Obama vs Donald Trump (General)
Barack Obama- 50%  (-1)
Donald Trump- 43%  (+2)
Undecided- 7%  (-1)
OBAMA +7

Barack Obama vs Donald Trump vs Jon Huntsman vs Gary Johnson vs Jill Stein (General)
Barack Obama- 46%  (+-0)
Donald Trump- 36%  (+4)
Jon Huntsman- 8%  (-3)
Gary Johnson- 5%  (+-0)
Jill Stein- 0%  (+-0)
Other/Undecided- 5%  (-1)
OBAMA +10
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« Reply #86 on: November 24, 2017, 09:44:12 am »

Question: What kind of Trump audio leak do you plan on having for the October Surprise?  I don't think "Grab 'em by the <Blank>" is going to have quite the same effect with two male nominees, so I'm wondering.



Hm... I see where you're leading. I actually didn't plan to change the original leak, considering the fact that it would still hurt him with women. And I'm not sure if I'm comfortable with contrieving a new leak, as I can't tell for sure what Trump said or didn't say. But we'll see.
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« Reply #87 on: November 25, 2017, 12:29:45 pm »
« Edited: December 08, 2017, 06:58:02 am by Parrotguy »

July 23rd, 2016

REPORT: After 20,000 DNC emails leak, Chairwoman Wasserman-Schultz resigns; sources claim President Obama "forced her to resignation"



WASHINGTON, D.C. - A mere day after the big dump of leaked DNC emails by Wikileaks, Chairwoman Debbie Wasserman-Schultz announced that she resigns her position "effective immediately". Replacing her as Interim Chair will be Donna Brazile, who escaped controversy in the recent leaks.

The email leaks showed DNC staffers deriding the Bernie Sanders campaign and Schultz herself aggressively attacking Sanders, his campaign staffers and media personalities who covered her negatively. In one email, after Mika Brzezinski accused Schultz of bias against Sanders and called for her resignation, she told NBC Political director Chuck Todd that "such coverage must stop" and that it was the "LAST straw". In another instance, she described Sanders campaign manager Jeff Weaver as "a damn liar".

Following the leaks, the Obama campaign rebuked Schultz and the DNC staffers, calling the treatment of the Sanders campaign "concerning and unnecessary". According to various reports, the President was adamant in distancing himself from the Chairwoman and, when she reportedly refused to resign, the White House mounted increasing pressure on her to staqnd down, until eventually she received "a sharp call" from the President and subsequently resigned. Asked to comment, Senator Bernie Sanders said that he forgives Schultz for these comments, but that it is "good that she resigned", and that "the President handled this well."

But Press Secretary Josh Earnest added in a press conference that the leaks are seen as "a serious breach of the American electoral process and privacy" by Wikileaks, and called Julian Assange "a traitor and servant of hostile nations", implying the long-suspected involvement Wikileaks had with Vladimir Putin's Government. The Russian issue is becoming increasingly important in the campaign, after the Flynn debacle and now the email leak. Democrats and some Republicans criticize Trump for "overly friendly" comments about Putin, and for his calls on Russia to find Secretary Clinton's "30,000 emails that are missing", a request which, as Vice President Biden said in a Nashua, NH rally, "was, after a fashion, answered." The issue also seems to harm Green Party nominee Jill Stein, who has been consistently polling below 1% ever since pictures of her in an RT galla, around a table with Mike Flynn and Vladimir Putin. But meanwhile, following the leaks and the RNC, Donald Trump has a reason to smile:

Barack Obama vs Donald Trump (General)
Barack Obama- 48%  (-2)
Donald Trump- 44%  (+1)
Undecided- 8%  (+1)
OBAMA +4

Barack Obama vs Donald Trump vs Jon Huntsman vs Gary Johnson vs Jill Stein (General)
Barack Obama- 45%  (-1)
Donald Trump- 38%  (+2)
Jon Huntsman- 8%  (+-0)
Gary Johnson- 4%  (-1)
Jill Stein- 0%  (+-0)
Other/Undecided- 5%  (+-0)
OBAMA +7
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« Reply #88 on: November 25, 2017, 02:50:00 pm »

July 24th, 2016

Obama selects Tammy Baldwin as running mate; calls on Americans "to make history again"



MILWAUKEE - At a big, crowded rally in Wisconsin's largest city, President Barack Obama finally announced his choice for running mate in the 2016 election, following Vice President Biden's decision to not seek a third term. Obama's choice was the state's U.S. Senator, Tammy Baldwin.

Formerly a long-time Representative, and elected to the Senate in 2012, Baldwin does not bring much important experience to the ticket, but she does bring an important thing- excitement. A progressive with both establishment and populist appeal, a woman and a lesbian, the Wisconsin Senator helps bring enthusiasm to large swaths of the Democratic establishment, and hails from from a potential swing state in an area where the Trump campaign is trying to flip states rich with 'white working class' voters.

Baldwin's choice is considered solid, and she gave a rousing speech to the Milwaukee crowd, which, some claim, rivaled even the President's speech in the rally. Vice President Joe Biden, who also attended the rally, called Baldwin "a true voice for progress and equality", Secretary Clinton lauded Obama for making "a bold, historic choice" and Senator Sanders said that he was "satisfied with the choice", adding that "Baldwin is a progressive who supports causes very important for us."

But the Republicans, of course, weren't happy with the choice. Nominee Donald Trump called Baldwin "EXTREME & UNHINGED" in a tweet, Speaker Paul Ryan said that "the President continues in a dangerous direction of, frankly, socialism", and Senator Ted Cruz announced that "Baldwin stands against all the values we believe in", prompting accusation of homophobia and outrage amongst lgbtq groups, including the Cabin Log Republicans who called Cruz's comment "completely distasteful and unacceptable." Trump's new campaign advisor, Kellyanne Conway, claimed that "the President is trying to turn the public's attention from the damning email leaks, but the American people aren't stupid." And indeed, many pundits are speculating that the Baldwin choice was an attempt to diverge attention away from the damaging news about the leaks. With the DNC in Philadelphia just one day away, this was certainly necessary.
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« Reply #89 on: December 08, 2017, 07:01:48 am »

July 25th - July 28th, 2016

The Democratic National Convention: Pres. Obama walks out of Philadelphia with a united party



PHILADELPHIA - Entering the 2016 DNC, President Barack Obama had one goal- uniting the progressive, liberal and moderate bases of the Democratic party, as well as independent voters, behind him as he heads to a clash with Donald Trump in the general election. After a bruising primary against Senator Bernie Sanders and Secretary Hillary Clinton, he needed to reassure and regain the support of the Sanders supporters, and to a lesser extent the Clinton ones as well.

This mission was largely successful. In a diverse DNC, with speakers of all wings of the party and some rousing speeches, Obama managed to present the Democrats as a big-tent party, but one which fights for progressive values at the same time. Post-convention polls showed that over 90% of former Sanders supporters were planning to vote for Obama, and close to 100% of former Clinton supporters were planning to do the same. Let's look at the major events in the convention:

Day 1- The Progressives



During the 1st night of the DNC, dubbed "Unity", many prominent Democrats gave speeches in support of the party and of President Obama. Noteably, it seems like the heavy guns of the Progressive wing in the party were brought out, with Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) giving the keynote speech, Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) giving a headliner and Senators Sherrod Brown (D-OH) and Jeff Merkley (D-OR), the latter being the only Senator to endorse Sanders during the primary, giving their own speeches. All four are considered identified with the Progressive wing, and all four gave rousing, overwhelming speeches of support for the President. Sanders urged all who voted for him to support Obama, Warren called him "a historic, progressive breakthrough in our political system" and Brown attacked the Republican nominee, saying that "the President is fighting for the little guy- Donald Trump is fighting against the little guy, and for his billionaire friends."

Day 2- Michelle & The Presidents


Named "Experience", the second night of the DNC featured several very prominent speakers that fired up the crowd. Former President Bill Clinton gave a rousing speech, lauding his wife's former rival as "one of the greatest leaders of this generation". Candidate for the U.S. Senate from Georgia and former State Senator Jason Carter gave a very impressive speech, firing up the crowd, introducing his grandfather, former President Jimmie Carter, who made the effort to arrive to Philadelphia and gave an optimistic speech about the future of the country under President Obama, denouncing Donald Trump's extremist rhetoric. Several other prominent past Democrats, such as former nominee Michael Dukakis, spoke as well. But without a doubt, once again, the headline of the night was the speech given by First Lady Michelle Obama- charismatic, inspiring and rousing, Obama delivered again, making the convention crowd go wild and spurring even more media speculation about the political future of the beloved First Lady.

Day 4- The Running Mates


The third night of the DNC, called "Hard Work", saw Barack Obama's Vice Presidential choice, Wisconsin Senator Tammy Baldwin, facing her first test- a speech before the DNC. After being introduced by yet another powerful speech from Vice President Joe Biden, Baldwin managed to deliver a strong, energizing appeal to women and the people of middle America, ending her speech with a powerful sentence- "we care about you, we love you, and we're ready to work hard for you!" The speech was praised in the media, and, it seemed, Obama's choice passed the test.
Other speeches given during the night came from Secretary of State John Kerry, who praised Obama's leadership as "stable and calm", and from Independent Businessman and former NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who delivered a sharp rebuke against his fellow businessman: “Donald Trump says he wants to run the country like he runs his business... God help us. I’m a New Yorker, and I know a con when I see one!" However, Bloomberg fell short of endorsing President Obama, leaving the possibility of supporting Jon Huntsman's independent bid, and the speech was critisized by many progressive activists, dampening the night.

Day 5- Mr. President



In the final night of the DNC, called "Fired Up", President Obama finally gave his long-awaited speech to the convention. Before him spoke two other very prominent Democrats- former Vice President Al Gore, who gave a sharp environmentalist statement contrasting between "the clueless, arrogant rich man who only cares about his profits and thinks climate change is a hoax, and the progressive President who works hard to save the world from this impending doom", and former Secretary Hillary Clinton, who appeared to be giving the farewell speech of her political career by making a ringing endorsement of "our wonderful President" and calling for women to "come out and vote for the only candidate who cares about you and your rights, getting us closer to finally breaking that hardest ceiling." Other noteable speeches during the night came from South Bend Mayor and candidate for Indiania Governor, Pete Buttigieg, who gave a powerful and charismatic address, and from Russ Feingold, the candidate for Wisconsin's Senate seat, who gave yet another appeal to progressives to unite behind President Obama.

The President's speech was, just as expected, one of the best, if not the best, in the convention. The crowd chanted "Four More Years" in ringing voices as the President delivered a rousing, powerful statement: "Contrary to what the Republican nominee is claiming, America is great. America is great, and we're going to keep making it greater, by continuing the work we've been doing for the last eight years. Let's choose progress, not regress, let's choose freedom and equality, not authoritarianism and racism! I'm fired up and ready to go, and work hard for the American people Four More Years!"

Coming out of Philadelphia with a united, energized Democratic Party, Obama bounced up in the polls, recovering from his recent slump. The General election campaign could finally start.

Barack Obama vs Donald Trump (General)
Barack Obama- 52%  (+4)
Donald Trump- 42%  (-2)
Undecided- 6%  (-2)
OBAMA +10

Barack Obama vs Donald Trump vs Jon Huntsman vs Gary Johnson vs Jill Stein (General)
Barack Obama- 48%  (+3)
Donald Trump- 37%  (-1)
Jon Huntsman- 7%  (-1)
Gary Johnson- 4%  (+-0)
Jill Stein- 0%  (+-0)
Other/Undecided- 4%  (-1)
OBAMA +11
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« Reply #90 on: December 15, 2017, 11:08:36 am »

SPECIAL: THE 2008 DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY (Part 1)



The 2008 Democratic primary was, from the start, widely expected to get crowded. With an unpopular Republican President, the Democrats were thought likely to regain the White House, and so, the horserace started.

Throughout 2006, speculation swirled about the big contenders for the Democratic nomination. Former First Lady and Senator from New York Hillary Clinton, despite her husband's loss in 2000, was widely considered the likely frontrunner, as Bush's unpopularity increased nostalgia for the Clinton years. Other major names that were being continuously floated are 2004 nominee and former Vice President Al Gore (D-TN), 2004 Vice Presidential nominee and former Governor Howard Dean (D-VT), powerful Senator John Kerry (D-MA), 2004 primary third-place finisher and Senator John Edwards (D-NC) former popular Governor Mark Warner (D-VA) and progressive Senator Russ Feingold (D-WI). Freshman Senator Barack Obama (D-IL) was also being speculated, but not included in most public polls as he was initially considered unlikely to run. The polling in late 2006 showed a race centering around three candidates:

Democratic Nomination- November 2006 (General)
Senator Hillary Clinton- 35%
Fmr. VP Al Gore- 22%
Fmr. Governor Howard Dean- 16%
Senator John Kerry- 9%
Senator John Edwards- 5%
Fmr. Governor Mark Warner- 5%
Senator Russ Feingold- 4%
Senator Joe Biden- 2%
Senator Evan Bayh- 1%
Governor Tom Vilsack- 1%
Fmr. Senator Mike Gravel- 0%

Soon enough, the race started to clear as candidates announced one by one. Hillary Clinton, Howard Dean and John Kerry all decided to run. Al Gore, John Edwards, Mark Warner and Russ Feingold declined. Other announced candidates were Senator Chris Dodd (D-CT), Governor Bill Richardson (D-NM) and Representative Dennis Kucinich (D-OH). Meanwhile, Governor Tom Vilsack (D-IA) and Senator Evan Bayh (D-IN) already managed to drop out of the race due to low name recognition and fundraising. But the real shaking of the race came in Februart 10th, 2007, when Barack Obama announced his run. Giving one charismatic speech after the other in crowded rallies, the freshman Senator was gaining an enthusiastic following and generating energy, and soon enough seemed like a serious contender.


Senator Obama announcing his Presidential bid in Springfield, Illinois

The race continued slowly through 2007, with no major shake-ups on the Republican side. But as time went by, a trend was beginning to be seen- the frontrunners were losing strength and their rivals were gaining. Mainly, Vice Presidential nominee Howard Dean was declining, and Senator Barack Obama was rising. Dean, formerly a progressive favourite, was seen now as "old news", known commodity, who couldn't excite the grassroots as much as he did in 2004. Instead, Obama was the exciting candidate, a fresh, charismatic face. Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton's lead was also eroding, while Senator John Kerry was gaining strength. Obama and Kerry were consistently shining in the debates, and though Hillary Clinton and Howard Dean were performing decently, they were no longer the only stars. The other candidates were unable to gain much traction. The polls reflected this:

Democratic Nomination- November 2006 (General)
Senator Hillary Clinton- 35%
Senator Barack Obama- 21%
Fmr. Governor Howard Dean- 15%
Senator John Kerry- 12%
Senator Joe Biden- 4%
Governor Bill Richardson- 3%
Senator Chris Dodd- 2%
Representative Dennis Kucinich- 2%
Fmr. Senator Mike Gravel- 0%
Undecided- 6%

Going into Iowa, the three leading campaigns, and many of the other contenders, were pegging their hopes on the caucuses. The Clinton campaign was investing heavily in the state, but was pretty confident that the former First Lady's popularity among working-class white voters will give her a victory. Meanwhile, Obama and Dean were heavily campaigning in the Hawkeye State, fiercely contesting the grassroots support, while the Kerry campaign only did limited investment there, focusing on New Hampshire. The results, when they came, sent shockwaves through the Democratic party, an through the nation:

2008 Democratic Iowa Caucues
Senator Barak Obama- 32% ✓
Senator Hillary Clinton- 28%
Fmr. Governor Howard Dean- 21%
Senator John Kerry- 17%
Senator Joe Biden- 5%
Governor Bill Richardson- 5%
Senator Chris Dodd- 2%
Represenative Dennis Kukinich- 1%
Fmr. Senator Mike Gravel- 1%


Senator Obama gives his victory speech in Iowa

The young Senator from Illinois upset the experienced, popular Hillary Clinton in the Hawkeye state. Senators Biden and Dodd, as well as Governor Richardson, withdrew following their dismal showing. Following the defeat, the Clinton campaign turned in panic to New Hampshire, where they relied on momentum following the Iowa win rather than heavy campaigning. The Dean campaign also swooped on the Granite State, seeing it as possibly their last shot. The results in New Hampshire, however, gave the race yet another shakup:

2008 Democratic New Hampshire Primary
Senator John Kerry- 27% ✓
Senator Hillary Clinton- 26%
Senator Barak Obama- 24%
Fmr. Governor Howard Dean- 23%
Represenative Dennis Kucinich- 0%
Fmr. Senator Mike Gravel- 0%

The Massachusetts Senator saw his efforts and strong debating bear fruit, and emrged on top in the Granite State, and two campaigns were forced to end- Kucinich and Gravel finally dropped out. A strong showing by Clinton kept her campaign afloat, but the Nevada Caucuses were seen as an absolute must-win. Meanwhile, Obama looked beyond, to South Carolina, where he hoped to win by a landslide and establish himself as the frontrunner, and Dean's campaign was on the ropes, but the former Governor swooped into Nevada and vowed to stay at least until Super Tuesday.

After New Hampshire, the non-binding Michigan primary saw a Clinton victory, narrowly defeating the only other candidate on the ballot, Howard Dean. Then, Nevada came and Hillary Clinton finally scored a victory:

2008 Democratic Nevada Caucuses
Senator Hillary Clinton- 34% ✓
Fmr. Governor Howard Dean- 30%
Senator Barak Obama- 21%
Senator John Kerry- 15%

The Democratic race continued, and now seemed more uncertain than ever, with a potential for an ugly, 4-way convention battle, handing Republicans a precious gift in a tough general election for them.
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« Reply #91 on: December 15, 2017, 11:11:54 am »

SPECIAL: THE 2008 DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY (Part 2)

With a victory in Nevada, Hillary Clinton managed to continue fighting on. She campaigned in South Carolina, hoping to do the seemingly impossible and upset Barack Obama, while the other two candidates moved to Super Tuesday. Senator Obama coasted to victory in the Palmetto State, but Clinton's strong showing there ensured her place as a strong contender:

2008 Democratic South Carolina
Senator Barak Obama- 53% ✓
Senator Hillary Clinton- 31%
Senator John Kerry- 10%
Fmr. Governor Howard Dean- 6%

Now, only the non-binding Florida Primary, won by Clinton, was left before Super Tuesday. And then, in February 5th the fateful day arrived, where 23 states and American Samoa voted. Many pundits considered it the most important moment in the campaign, awarding a huge number of delegates. The result seemed  to confirm that the Democratic race was, after all, a battle of two.

States won by Barack Obama:
Alabama
Colorado
Delaware
Georgia
Idaho
Illinois
Kansas
Minnesota
North Dakota
Utah


States won by Hillary Clinton:
American Samoa
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Missouri
New Mexico
Oklahoma
Tennessee


States won by John Kerry:
Colorado
Connecticut
Massachusetts
New Jersey


States won by Howard Dean:
Alaska
Vermont



The remaining contenders after Super Tuesday

The Super Tuesday contests landed a deathblow on the campaign of Howard Dean, former Vice Presidential nominee. Only winning his homestate and the Alaska Caucuses, Dean was forced to drop out. Meanwhile, KErry managed to keep himself afloat by winning several contests, but it was quite clear that the race was now between Senator Obama and Senator Clinton.

In the February 9th contests, Obama sweeped Louisiana, Nebraska, the Virgin Islands and Washington. A day after, Kerry won a narrow victory in Maine. And two days after, in the 12th, Obama continued with victories in Washington D.C., Virginia and the Democrats Abroad, narrowly defeating Kerry in Maryland as well. In February 19th, Obama won Hawaii and Wisconsin too, and seemed headed for victory. But in March 4th, Clinton rebounded, winning Ohio and Texas, while Kerry won Rhode Island by a tiny margin. Obama followed up with a win in Wyoming 4 days later, and a landslide in Mississippi in March 11th. The Massachusetts Senator decided to stay in until the Pennsylvania Primary in April 22nd, hoping for a victory there, but in the end he came third, behind Obama, with Clinton coming first. Following that, Kerry finally dropped out.

The rest of the race was a battle between Obama and Clinton, with the Illinois Senator increasingly seeming inevitable- he won Indiana and North Carolina in May 6th and Oregon in May 20th, while Clinton won West Virginia in May 13th and Kentucky in the 20th. In June 1st, Obama won Puerto Rico, while in the 3rd, the last day of contests, Obama finally won South Dakota and Montana, securing a plurality of delegates.

As no candidate won an outright majority of delegates, Democrats were shaking in fear at the prospect of a contested convention. But luckily for them, after Dean and Kerry gave firm endorsements of Obama, Clinton decided not to contest the convention, and the Illinois Senator became the first African American presumptive nominee of a major party.


American Samoa
Guam
Northern Mariana Islands
US Virgin Islands
Democrats Abroad


Barack Obama- 38.7%, 1415 pledged delegates, 527 super delegates, total: 1942 delegates ✓
Hillary Clinton- 32.5%, 1240 pledged delegates, 231 super delegates, total: 1471  delegates
John Kerry- 19.1%, 776 pledged delegates, 59 super delegates, total: 835 delegates
Howard Dean- 8.8%, 128 pledged delegates, 6 super delegates, total: 134 delegates
Others- 0.9%, 0 delegates


Results of the 2008 Democratic Primary

With the primaries done, Barack Obama was ready to go up against the Republican nominee, Senator John McCain, in the General Election. George Bush initially contemplated a run for a third term, but ruled it out after his approvals started to dip. And indeed, with a weakening economy and high disapproval for the Republican President, it seemed likely that Obama would become the first African American President. He chose Senator Joe Biden, who contemplated him with his experience and white working-class appeal, as running mate, and marched into the Democratic National Convention in Denver, Colorad. The rest is history...


Senator Joe Lieberman gives the 2008 RNC keynote address, supporting McCain and infuriating Democrats


Controversial Governor Sarah Palin accepts the 2008 Republican Vice Presidential nomination


Senator John McCain accepts the Republican nomination in a well-received speech


Hillary Clinton gives the 2008 keynote DNC address, enthusiastically endorsing Obama


Senator Biden accepts the Vice Presidential nomination in an energetic speech


Senator Obama gives a rousing nomination acceptance speech in the 2008 DNC
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« Reply #92 on: December 15, 2017, 12:09:09 pm »

So the 2008 GOP primaries go the same as real life?

Yep. George Bush made noises of running throughout 2005-2006, but when his approvals started dipping he decided not to do it. The 2008 GOP primaries and the 2008 GE go as in OTL, which means that we're basically done with the specials.
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« Reply #93 on: December 15, 2017, 05:09:39 pm »

August 2nd, 2016

Huntsman announces James Stavridis as running mate on independent ticket, attempts to regain momentum



SALT LAKE CITY - In a campaign rally that drew a large crowd, bigger than he ever received during his 2012 Presidential run, former Governor Jon Huntsman announced that Retired Admiral James Stavridis, who was a top aide to the Navy Secretary in the Clinton administration and commanded NATO and U.S. forces in Europe, will join him on his independent ticket.

Stavridis lauded Huntsman as "a courageous, principled man with a deep, well-needed understanding of foreign policy and diplomacy." He briefly criticized the Obama administration's foreign policy as "ineffective", but focused most of his fire on the Republican nominee, Donald Trump, who he said would be "disastrous and dangerous" for America's valuable soft power and influence around the world. Huntsman echoed his running mate's statement, adding that they will be "a team of a diplomat and a soldier who will navigate the American ship through the stormy international waters."

The pick is expected to give Huntsman's independent bid some much-needed publicity, as well as a trusted figure to boost his support. It's a move to stop the former Governor's decline in the polls following the Republican and Democratic National Conventions boosting their nominees. While President Obama said that he respects Stavridis and hopes that he will help add to "an intelligent conversation" during the election, Donald Trump lashed out in a tweet, criticized by Democrats and moderate Republicans as disrespectful to the military:

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« Reply #94 on: December 23, 2017, 07:42:28 am »
« Edited: December 23, 2017, 07:44:32 am by Parrotguy »

August 7th, 2016

Despite controversy, Green Party nominates Jill Stein for President, Ajamu Baraka for Vice President



HOUSTON - Despite a last-minute attempt to defeat her by rivals within the party, who claimed that her dismal polling numbers and unpopularity made her a bad candidate, the Green Party of the United States formally nominated its 2012 nominee, Jill Stein, as Presidential nominee and "human rights" activist Ajamu Baraka as its Vice Presidential nominee.

The convention in Houston was held under the shadow of recent damaging controversy about Stein, as a photo leaked of her sitting on the same table with Russian President Vladimir Putin, withdrawn Trump running mate choice Mike Flynn and others in an RT galla, caused many progressives to accuse her of colluding with Russia to spoil the election for Republican nominee Donald Trump. Though initially considered a possible destination for defecting leftists who feel President Obama is a "corporatist", the photo leak and following controversy prompted progressive favourite Bernie Sanders to say that President Putin is a "terrible, authoritarian figure who cares nothing for human rights or the environment", and allude to Stein by saying that "those who pretend to care about these issues shouldn't support and celebrate his propaganda channel."

Sanders' comment seemed to be the nail in the coffin, and Stein's polling numbers fell down below the 1%, with only diehard Green Party activists remaining to support her. Despite this, the party did not budge and nominated Stein. More controversy arose in the convention itself, as Wikileaks' Julian Assange, who is widely accused of working for Putin and leaking Democratic emails to damage Obama and help Trump, addressed the adoring delegates.

New polling doesn't show any improvement for the Green Party, but it does show the Stavridis running-mate choice aiding Jon Huntsman and raising fears in the RNC that the Independent Conservative former Utah Governor will qualify for the debates:

Barack Obama vs Donald Trump (General)
Barack Obama- 51%  (-1)
Donald Trump- 43%  (+1)
Undecided- 6%  (+-0)
OBAMA +8

Barack Obama vs Donald Trump vs Jon Huntsman vs Gary Johnson vs Jill Stein (General)
Barack Obama- 47%  (-1)
Donald Trump- 35%  (-2)
Jon Huntsman- 10%  (+3)
Gary Johnson- 3%  (-1)
Jill Stein- 0%  (+-0)
Other/Undecided- 5%  (+1)
OBAMA +12
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« Reply #95 on: December 23, 2017, 09:44:38 am »
« Edited: December 23, 2017, 10:01:03 am by Parrotguy »

August 11th, 2016

Obama campaign announces 50-state strategy in the face of Trump polling weakness, hires Roby Mook as senior advisor



CHICAGO - The Obama 2016 Presidential campaign is getting into gear as the fall campaign nears. In a series of reforms, campaign manager Jim Messina and Chief Strategist David Axelrod have hired a bunch of new campaign aides and advisors, including former manager of Hillary Clinton's campaign in the 2016 Democratic primaries, Robby Mook.

Young and a rising star in the party, Mook was considered an able manager of the Clinton campaign, which in the end fell due to its candidate's inability to defeat President Obama rather than due to lackluster managing. According to official statements, Mook will advise the campaign on matters of "media and youth outreach", as well as manager turnout operations in various swingstates.

Additionally, the campaign has announced that in face of the strong polling gap opened by Obama against Trump, it will work on a 50-state strategy to appeal and turn out voters from every state, "from D.C. to Wyoming". When asked by reporters whether the campaign will concentrate on swingstates, Axelrod answered that "of course we will focus on the key states," but that "we're going to reach every state and every citizen, for downballot races but also for the race on the top of the ballot."

As the Obama campaign reforms to become a well-oiled machine, the Trump campaign seems to be struggling, with manager Corey Lewandowski resigning in June after being charged of physically assaulting a Breitbart reporter. His duties were, de-facto, assumed by campaign chairman Paul Manafort, but recent controversy surrounding Manafort's connections to Russia seems to be threatening his position, too.
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« Reply #96 on: December 23, 2017, 10:45:16 am »
« Edited: December 23, 2017, 02:48:14 pm by Parrotguy »

August 19th, 2016

Trump campaign shakeup: Manafort out, Conway, Bannon in



NEW YORK CITY - Less than a week after the Obama campaign announced its ambitious 50-state plan, the Trump campaign, embroiled in controversy over both its candidate and key figures inside it, has undergone a shakeup of its own, trying to catch fire again and close the gap with the incumbent President.

And so, controversial campaign chairman and de-facto manager, Paul Manafort, who was accused of receiving millions of dollars off-the-books from former pro-Putin Ukrainian Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych's party and of other connections with the Russian regime, announced his resignation as chairman of the campaign. Instead, his duties were taken by two figures hired two days before his resignation, pollster and Republican political operative Kelleyanne Connway as campaign manager and Steve Bannon, chief-editor of the controversial alt-right media source Breitbard News, as chief executive of the campaign.

The change is considered an attempt to both stabilize the campaign with strong figures that will keep the infighting at bay, and a signal that it will continue to be a negative campaign, bashing President Obama, the Democrats and even the Republican establishment, with Bannon often quoted saying fiery statements against the entire political establishment.

In a further attempt to gain momentum, the Trump campaign announced a host of co-chairs who will serve as surrogates and supporters, including former NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R-NY), Senator Tom Cotton (R-AR), former Governor Sarah Palin (R-AK), former Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA), surgeon Ben Carson (R-MD) and former Governor Mike Huckabee (R-AR).

Shortly after, though, when the Obama campaign announced its own co-chairs, the Trump list seemed lackluster: it included popular, diverse figues such as Governor Deval Patrick (R-MA), Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), former Senator Russ Feingold (D-WI), former Senator Lincoln Chafee (D-RI), Senator Dick Durbin (D-IL), former Presidents Jimmy Carter (D-GA) and Bill Clinton (D-AR) and others. And thus, with Trump's aggressive campaign ready for collision with the strong campaign of the incumbent President, running for a historic third term, the fall campaign was set to begin.

Barack Obama vs Donald Trump (General)
Barack Obama- 50%  (-1)
Donald Trump- 43%  (+-0)
Undecided- 7%  (+1)
OBAMA +7

Barack Obama vs Donald Trump vs Jon Huntsman vs Gary Johnson vs Jill Stein (General)
Barack Obama- 46%  (-1)
Donald Trump- 35%  (+-0)
Jon Huntsman- 11%  (+1)
Gary Johnson- 3%  (+-0)
Jill Stein- 0%  (+-0)
Other/Undecided- 5%  (+-0)
OBAMA +11

NEXT UP: Downballot races. Stay tuned!
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« Reply #97 on: December 25, 2017, 07:39:52 am »
« Edited: December 28, 2017, 12:35:00 am by Parrotguy »

September 1st, 2016

DOWNBALLOT RACES: The Battle for the Senate



WASHINGTON, D.C. - With the race for the White House heating up, the Republicans and Democrats are focusing on another important battle- the one waged for control of both Houses of Congress, which could both go either way according to pundits, but especially the battle for the Senate. President Donald Trump is widely treated as an albatross around the neck of downballot Republicans, especially in swing races, causing many to distance themselves from their party's nominee, but it could be a dangerous game depressing their base's turnout, and Trump's presence is always there, looming behind every Republican, a big target for the Democrats. Let us examine the Senate races closely and see where each party can make gains.

Alabama
Richard Shelby (R) vs Ron Crumpton (D)
In Alabama, one of the most ruby-red states in the nation, Democrats aren't investing resources. Senator Richard Shelby, safe and popular, after easily turning back a conservative primary challenge from businessman Jonathan McConnell, is expected to cruise to an easy reelection over the Democratic nominee, marijuana legalization activist Ron Crumpton.
RATING: Safe R

Alaska
Lisa Murkowski (R) vs Joe Miller (L) vs Hollis French (D)
Incumbent Senator Lisa Murkowski is considered fairly safe in her reelection bid, however, she's threatened by a right-wing challenge from the nominee of the Libertarian Party, Attorney Joe Miller, who previously defeated her in the 2014 Republican primary only to lose to her write-in general election campaign. Additionally, Democratic former State Senator Hollis French is challenging her from the left, making the race a potentially perilous battle for the moderate Senator Murkowski.
RATING: Lean R

Arizona
John McCain (R) vs Ann Kirkpatrick (D)
In Arizona, Democratic see a prime pickup opportunity. They hope to exploit two factors and achieve an upset victory in a previously reliable Republican state- the state's trend to the left with a big hispanic population, and longtime incumbent John McCain defeating a bruising challenge from far right former State Senator Kelly Ward, as well as the backlash he faces due to his refusal to endorse Trump, who said that the 2008 Republican nominee is "not a hero" because he was captured. However, McCain is a popular and experienced politician, one of the Republican party's symbolic figures, and would be tough to defeat.
RATING: Lean R

Arkansas
John Boozman (R) vs Connor Elbridge (D)
In Arkansas, incumbent Senator John Boozman, having defeated Democratic former Senator Blanche Lincoln, is popular and polling very strongly. Despite rumours that one of the Democrats who lost their races in 2010 and 2014, Lincoln or former Senator Mark Pryor, might try to challenge Boozman, he only got a minor rival in the form of Democratic Attorney Connor Elbridge. With the national party barely investing in the race, Boozman is safe.
RATING: Safe R

California
Kamala Harris (D) vs Loretta Sanchez (D)
Two Democrats advanced to the runoff in California's nonpartisan blanket primary- State Attorney General Kamala Harris and U.S. Representative Loretta Sanchez. Harris, who has the support of the Obama campaign, is expected to defeat Sanchez, who has support from Clintonworld. Whatever happens, this race will be won by a Democrat.
RATING: Safe D

Colorado
Michael Bennet (D) vs Darryl Glenn (R)
Despite Colorado being, generally, a swingstate, incumbent Democratic Senator Michael Bennet is considered very popular and hard to beat. Thus, he got a fairly minor Republican rival in the form of El Passo County Comissioner Darryl Glenn. Additionally, Obama polls consistently well against Trump there. Still, this will be a race to watch due to Colorado's nature.
RATING: Likely D

Connecticut
Richard Blumenthal (D) vs Dan Carter (R)
In the Nutmeg State, Senator Richard Blumenthal is considered strong and popular. Despite the state's tedency to be receptive to moderate Republican candidates, State Senator Dan Carter is expected to lose quite handily due to a favourable environment for Democrats and Blumenthal's popularity.
RATING: Safe D

Florida
Marco Rubio (R) vs Gwen Graham (D)
In Florida, both the Republican and Democratic primaries were interesting. Incumbent Senator Marco Rubio, initially forsaking a reelection run in favour of a Presidential bid, changed his mind and managed to gain the Republican nomination, despite facing scrunity for, as his Democratic opponent called it, "lying to Florida voters". Meanwhile, former Representative and daughter of former Senator Bob Graham, Gwen Graham, surprisingly jumped into the race, despite speculations that she was aiming for a gubernatorial run in 2018. This was after initial Democratic frontrunner, Representative Patrick Murphy, was convinced to run for reelection in his Republican-leaning district instead, in order to increase the chances a Democrat would win there and help the party flip the House. Graham dispatched a primary rival in form of provocative far-left Representative Alan Grayson quite easily, and now she's hoping to challenge Rubio, frequently using his flip-flopping as an attack line and her family's deep roots and popularity in Florida as a way to attack him for "not caring" about the people of the state and using the Senate as a springboard for Presidential ambitios "from day one". Her attacks bruised Rubio, but he's still a popular Senator and a charismatic campaigner, so this is expected to be a very close race.
RATING: Tossup

Georgia
Johnny Isakson (R) vs Jason Carter (D)
Though initially considered likely to cruise to reelection, as Donald Trump's candidacy seemed to improve the prospects of a favourable national environment for Democrats, incumbent Republican Senator got a surprising and strong challenger- Jason Carter, a former State Senator, 2014 Gubernatorial candidate and grandson of former President Jimmy Carter. With this challenge and changing dempgraphics increasingly helping Democrats, this is expected to be a potentially tough race for Isakson, but the incumbent is a very strong and popular politician in his state, as well as a capable campaigner, and current polls show him leading solidly.
RATING: Likely R

Hawaii
Brian Schatz (D) vs John Carroll (R)
In Hawaii, a solid blue state, popular incumbent Senator Brian Schatz, a strong public speaker, is facing only a minor challenge from the much-older Republican former state legislator John Carroll. He's expected to easily cruise to reelection.
RATING: Safe D

Idaho
Mike Crapo (R) vs Jerry Sturgill (D)
Incumbent Senator Mike Crapo is expected to easily win the race in the Republican state of Idaho against businessman Jerry Sturgill, and Democrats aren't investing here.
RATING: Safe R

Illinois
Mark Kirk (R) vs Tammy Duckworth (D)
After shockingly winning the Senate race for Barack Obama's old seat in 2010, Mark Kirk was expected to be hard to defeat in 2016. However, rumours of health problems coupled with a badly-run campaign full of gaffes, as well as a strong and appealing candidate in Representative and disabled veteran Tammy Duckworth, are causing major problems for him, and Duckworth seems to have consistent leads in the polls.
RATING: Likely D
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« Reply #98 on: December 25, 2017, 08:42:52 am »
« Edited: March 29, 2018, 06:02:10 am by Parrotguy »

September 1st, 2016

DOWNBALLOT RACES: The Battle for the Senate (Part 2)

Indiana
Todd Young (R) vs Evan Bayh (D)
In another unexpected, prime pickup opportunity for Democrats, former Senator and Governor Evan Bayh entered the race to replace retiring Republican Senator Dan Coats. He faces a strong Republican challenger in Todd Young, however, and Bayh's baggage from his time in the D.C. lobbying business is expected to make this a close race despite initial polling leads for him.
RATING: Tossup

Iowa
Chuck Grassley (R) vs Tom Visack (D)
Initial polls were showing incumbent Senator Grassley easily leading over his likeliest challenger, former Lieutenant Governor Patty Judge. However, when Agriculture Secretary and former Governor Tom Vilsack entered, reportedly with the urging of President Obama, the race suddenly became much closer. Both Grassley and Vilsack are very popular in their state, so this is definitely a race to watch.
RATING: Lean R

Kansas
Jerry Moran (R) vs Patrick Wiesner (D)
In another race where a Senator is expected to cruise for reelection without much of a challenge from the other party, popular incumbent Jerry Moran is challenged by Attorney Patrick Wiesner who isn't expected to make much of a splash.
RATING: Safe R

Kentucky
Rand Paul (R) vs Jim Gray (D)
Rand Paul's reelection bid in Republican-friendly Kentucky isn't expected to get too perilous, dsespite the tough candidacy of Lexingtom Mayor and the first openly gay major party nominee for Senate in the state, Jim Gray. However, in the right environment this could become closer , perhaps due to Paul's controversial views or the state's relative elasticity.
RATING: Likely R

Louisiana
John Neely Kennedy (R) vs Caroline Fayard (D) vs Foster Campbell (D) vs Charles Boustany (R) vs John Fleming (R) vs David Duke (R)
In Louisiana's jungle primary race to replace retiring Senator David Vitter (R), there are many serious contenders, though the leading candidates to qualify for the runoff are considered Kennedy, Campbell, Boustany and Fayard. But barring an upset with two Democrats advancing, or controversial former KKK grandwizard David Duke advancing against a Democrat, this race is considered likely to be won by whichever Republican gets to the runoff.
RATING: Likely R

Maryland
Chris Van Hollen (D) vs Kathy Szeliga (R)
In the race to replace retiring Senator Barbara Mikulski, the longest serving female Senator, Democrat Chris Van Hollen won a hard primary against Representative Donna Edwards. Now, he's likely to cruise to victory against Republican Delegate Kathy Szeliga in the blue state of Maryland.
RATING: Safe D

Missouri
Roy Blunt (R) vs Jason Kander (D)
Despite  the state's Republican lean, Senate and Gubernatorial races in Missouri were always a tight affair. This year, incumbent Senator Roy Blunt was widely expected to win a solid reelection with the power of incumbency. However, his opponent, Democratic Secretary of State Jason Kander, a young veteran, has been running a strong and effective campaign, especially in comparison to Blunt's "sleepwalking" campaign, making this race closer and closer. Many Democrats are hopeful that Kander's youth, charisma and attractiveness can serve as a way to defeat the old Senator Blunt.
RATING: Tossup

Nevada
Catherine Cortez Masto (D) vs Joe Heck (R)
In Nevada, the race to replace retiring Senator Harry Reid is very close between former State Attorney Genral Catherine Cortez Masto and Representative Joe Heck. On the one hand, Masto is popular and charismatic, appealing to the state's large hispanic community. On the other hand, Heck's brand of moderate Republicanism is popular in Nevada, and his refusal to endorse Trump could help him, or harm him with his base. That remains to be seen.
RATING: Tossup

New Hampshire
Kelly Ayotte (R) vs Maggie Hassan (D)
Touted as a rising Republican star and a possible contender for the Presidency or Vice Presidency, Senator Kelly Ayotte is now fighting for her political life against the state's governor, Maggie Hassan. She's wading dangerous waters in her neutrality about Donald Trump, which could harm her with the base or help her with the state's large moderate, independent population. This is one of the closest races in the country right now.
RATING: Tossup

New York
Chuck Schumer(D) vs Wendy Long (R)
In the Empire State, Senator Chuck Schumer is not only very popular, but also destenied to become Democratic leader in the Senate, possibly Majority Leader of the stars align. New Yorkers are extremely unlikely to forsake this opportunity and elect his Republican opponent, attorney Wendy Long.
RATING: Safe D

North Carolina
Richard Burr (R) vs Kay Hagan (D)
The race in the Tar Heel state was close from the start, but when former Senator Kay Hagan, still popular despite a loss in 2014's unfavourable environment, entered, dispatching a primary challenge from former State Representative Deborah Ross, it became a tossup. Now, with Burr running a campaign considered lackluster by many, she even achieved a lead in some polls.
RATING: Tossup

North Dakota
John Hoeven (R) vs Eliot Glassheim (D-NPL)
In the red, oil-dependant state of North Dakota, incumbent Senator John Hoeven was never expected to have much trouble getting re-elected. But now, with Democrats using climate change as a key plank of their platform, he's expected to trounce former State Representative and Eliot Glassheim handily.
RATING: Safe R
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« Reply #99 on: December 25, 2017, 09:26:02 am »

September 1st, 2016

DOWNBALLOT RACES: The Battle for the Senate (Part 3)

Ohio
Rob Portman (R) vs Betty Sutton (D)
Initially, former Governot Ted Strickland was considered the likeliest challenger for incumbent Republican Senator Rob Portman in Ohio, and many pundits expected it to be close. However, he then announced that he won't run, dealing a blow to an otherwise successful recruiting effort for Senate Democrats. Instead, former Representative Betty Sutton emerged victorious from a splintered field including Cincinnati Councilman P.G. Sittenfield, former Representative John Boccieri and former State Senator Nina Turner. The race is considered likely to go to Portman's way, but Sutton is running a strong campaign in this swingstate.
RATING: Lean R

Oklahoma
James Lankford (R) vs Mike Workman (D)
Incumbent Senator James Lankford of Oklahoma had only one person to worry about in his reelection bid- former Representative Dan Boren. Once Democrats failed to recruit him, all that was left for Lakford is to cruise to reelection against a minor challlenger, political consultant Mike Workman, and this is just what he's currently doing.
RATING: Safe R

Oregon
Ron Wyden (D) vs Mark Callahan (R)
In Oregon, a state that usually had competitive races for Senate and Governor, Republicans hoped to force Democrats on the defensive in order to reelect Senator Ron Wyden. However, aided by an effective campaign and a good national environment, the incumbent is expected to easily win reelection over a poor recruit, perennial candidate Mark Callahan.
RATING: Safe D

Pennsylvania
Pat Toomey (R) vs Joe Sestak (D)
In one of the closest and most watched races in the country, incumbent Republican Senator Pat Toomey, who's touting a moderate record despite trying to primary former Senator Arlen Specter from the right back in 2004, is struggling for his political life against strong Democratic opposition in a Democratic-leaning state. However, Joe Sestak, a retired Admiral and former Representative seeking a rematch after losing to Toomey in 2010, just got out of a bruising, hard-fought primary against Katie McGinty, who only endorsed him reluctantly.
RATING: Tossup

South Carolina
Tim Scott (R) vs Thomas Dixon (D)
While normally, Democrats would invest in the Senate race in a state like South Carolina, which has a large African American community, this year they're only presenting a minor challenger, pastor Thomas Dixon. This is because the incumbent, Tim Scott, is very popular and expected to easily win reelection.
RATING: Safe R

South Dakota
John Thune (R) vs Tom Daschle (D)
In South Dakota, ranking Senate Republican John Thune, a popular incumbent in the state, was expected to quite easily win reelection. However, despite his previous reluctance, former Democratic Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle agreed to pleads from the Obama campaign to enter the race, and thus forced Republicans to spend efforts here. This is still considered an unlikely pickup for Democrats.
RATING: Likely R

Utah
Mike Lee (R) vs Misty Snow (D)
Though initially fearing a primary challenge, Utah Senator Mike Lee won the Republican nomination without competition. Now, he's facing the first transgender woman to be a major party's Senate nominee, grocery store clerk Misty Snow, a self described "Sanders Democrat", and is expected to easily win reelection.
RATING: Safe R

Vermont
Patrick Leahy (D) vs Scott Milne (R)
In Bernie Sanders' homestate, the most senior Democratic Senator, Patrick Leahy, is running for reelection. Though his Republican opponent, former Gubernatorial nominee Scott Milne who barely lost to Govenor Shmulin in 2014, is considered strong, Leahy is likely to cruise to an easy reelection.
RATING: Safe D

Washington
Patty Murray (D) vs Chris Vance (R)
In Washington, just like in Oregon, Republicans hoped to present a strong challenge to ranking Democratic Senator Patty Murray. Former State Representative Chris Vance tried to do just that, but is considered a weak, barely-known candidate. Murray is expected to easily win reelection.
RATING: Safe D

Wisconsin
Ron Johnson (R) vs Russ Feingold (D)
In another important Senate race, former Senator and progressive darling Russ Feingold is running against the one who defeated him in the Republican wave of 2010, Senator Ron Johnson. Feingold's popularity in Wisconsin and the state's Cemocratic lean in Presidential years are expected to make this race in Feingold's favour, but it's still not a race Democrats should treat unseriously.
RATING: Lean D
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