Why do the french sour on their leaders so quick?
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  Why do the french sour on their leaders so quick?
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Author Topic: Why do the french sour on their leaders so quick?  (Read 705 times)
Matty
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« on: August 26, 2017, 08:58:19 PM »

Already the polls show the public turning on Macron, who a few months ago was objectively an amazing candidate with some stellar policy plans.

What happened?
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mileslunn
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« Reply #1 on: August 26, 2017, 09:05:04 PM »

Already the polls show the public turning on Macron, who a few months ago was objectively an amazing candidate with some stellar policy plans.

What happened?

France is in very bad shape economically so you are pretty much damned if you do and damned if you don't.  Do nothing and things continue to do poorly, while try to make reforms to kick start the economy (as Macron is doing) and get a lot angry.  France unlike the US has a very rigid market and it is extremely difficult to fire an incompetent employee.  As such this hurts productivity and has also increased youth unemployment.  But obviously changing those rules reduces job security which many resent.  Also the state as a percentage of their GDP is amongst the highest in the world and their labour unions although small are very militant and will make life miserable for anyone who tries to bring about reforms.  France today in many ways is like Britain was when Thatcher came to power in 1979.  Her approval rating took a nose dive, but she recovered as things started to turn around as well as Labour put up terrible opponents.
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #2 on: August 26, 2017, 09:21:02 PM »

Because they all want to reform the labour market, and the French mostly don't want it reformed.
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mvd10
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« Reply #3 on: August 27, 2017, 03:12:24 AM »

Macron's main problem is his incredibly arrogant behaviour (honestly, it's like an eloquent version of Trump sometimes), his row with the military, some unpopular cuts and him not having a very strong base. I don't think his attempt to reform the labour market is the main thing making him unpopular. It isn't September yet, the strike season has yet to begin. I really hope Macron has enough spine to push labour reform through whatever happens (f**k the polls), but I'm starting to worry. An extremely arrogant young "start-up" president without much of a base in such a statist traditional country is a recipe for disaster.
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Tirnam
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« Reply #4 on: August 27, 2017, 04:01:52 AM »

I see two big reasons for his free-fall in the polls

-Some unpopular measures: budget cuts in all sectors (with a clash with the military), tax cuts being postponed, ... And sometimes some incredible stupid measures for a minimal economic gain (a reduction of €5 per month for the housing benefits, a huge political backlash for just a €100M gain)
-Communication mistakes: sometimes unpreparedness (in the National Assembly, the suppression of housing tax postponed then not, ...), lack of high figures in the media to defend and explain the action of the government, ... And then a strong "Macron-bashing" in the media since July (like the Jupiter thing). Apparently there will be major communication changes starting in September.

I don't think that his unpopularity is definitive, an Elabe poll published this week shown that even if 36% of the French said there are disappointed and only 14% satisfied with Macron, 50% said that it's too soon to judge. Certainly not a good result but there is a room to regain popularity (or to make the unpopularity definitive)
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parochial boy
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« Reply #5 on: August 27, 2017, 06:36:16 AM »

Well, this is the French you are talking about. Hating the president is a core part of their national culture, like failing to win the Tour de France, or setting the Côte d'Azur on fire each summer.

Seriously though, to add to the points made above about the labour laws or the gaffes - remember that, despite the media fawning back in May, Macron was only ever the second choice for most people. Even his first round support was hugely based on Centre-left and cetre-right voters wanting to block Le Pen and Fillon; his second round support even more so. His actual core support was probably only ever about 15% of the population, so his coalition was always going to fall apart once he started to do things people didn't like.
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MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
Kalwejt
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« Reply #6 on: August 27, 2017, 07:01:14 AM »

Macron became President by a historical accident. For a vast majority of the voters he was "the least bad option" (including, no doubts, some of those who tactically voted for him in first round already). We're talking about relatively inexperienced dude with no prior electoral record.

It feels like his incredible luck was enough to win an election, but not beyond.
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