Orange County, CA

[Sir Mohamed]

For the first time since 1936, Orange County, CA voted Democratic in 2016. Clinton even won a majority rather than just a plurality of votes. Do you think the county will return to the GOP in the future?

I think it is likely but not certain. I see no chance, however, that Trump can win it in 2020. He would probably do even worse. Pence may come close. A dude like Kasich or even Rubio would win easily.

[Virginiá]

No. Not the way the current GOP is going. Even if the GOP stuck with a candidate in the McCain/Romney mold, the GOP still would've been on track to lose the county by 2016 or 2020. A large part of that is that it's a majority-minority county now, and is more or less becoming like Fairfax County and Arapahoe County in the 2000's in that regard. Not a perfect analogy, sure, but it was on borrowed time none the less.

Perhaps in state-level races, it will remain a staunch GOP county. But on a federal level, I think it's going to start leaning decidedly Democratic.

If it's majority-minority status is the biggest factor in its partisan change, then I'd think that would make its Democratic shift even more permanent, with the caveat being that it might take a number of years to shift downballot, at least in midterms.

As for the topic, I don't think it's going back anytime soon. Compared to pre-Obama presidential elections, there was a notable pro-Democratic shift in the Obama era, so while the latest results were stronger (especially given the national margin), it isn't totally out of line either.

[Sir Mohamed]

No. Not the way the current GOP is going. Even if the GOP stuck with a candidate in the McCain/Romney mold, the GOP still would've been on track to lose the county by 2016 or 2020. A large part of that is that it's a majority-minority county now, and is more or less becoming like Fairfax County and Arapahoe County in the 2000's in that regard. Not a perfect analogy, sure, but it was on borrowed time none the less.

Perhaps in state-level races, it will remain a staunch GOP county. But on a federal level, I think it's going to start leaning decidedly Democratic.

If it's majority-minority status is the biggest factor in its partisan change, then I'd think that would make its Democratic shift even more permanent, with the caveat being that it might take a number of years to shift downballot, at least in midterms.

Agreed. I'm sure though Orange County will remain at the GOP column in statewide races in midterm years. Basically because of turnout (different electorate) and the fact that statewide Republican officeseekers often run different kind of campaigns than national candidates (2014 gubernatorial candidate Neel Kashkari or Arnold Schwarzenegger would have a hard time at the national level since they are moderates). Orange might be comparable to San Bernadino County to some extent, which frequently votes GOP in midtem years and Dem in presidential cycles.

[RINO Tom]

Hard to say.  I think Orange County Whites who defected to Clinton (a minority of OC Whites, let's remember) will likely remain Republican in future Presidential AND downballot races.  In other words, I think the vast, vast majority of "Romney-Clinton Whites" across the nation will retain the Romney part of their political identity rather than the Clinton part.

However, as has been said, this isn't Ronald Reagan's Orange County.  Not even close.  In 2010, these were the racial demographcis of Orange County:

44.0% White
33.7% Latino
17.9% Asian
  1.7% Black
  2.7% Other

Compare that to 2000:

51.3% White
30.8% Latino
13.6% Asian
  1.7% Black
  2.6% Other

I am having trouble finding the 1990 numbers, but Wikipedia indicates the Hispanic population was at 23.4% (10% lower than today, which makes a massive difference) and the Asian population was at 10.3% (almost 8% lower than today).  If all demographics voted exactly the same as they did in 1990 (which we all know isn't entirely true), it'd be a barely GOP county, even with great turnout.  Whether or not the GOP keeps Orange County in its column depends entirely, IMO, on whether or not they can make serious inroads with affluent Asians, which I view as a must.

[MT Treasurer]

Definitely not, even if the GOP nominee in 2024 is someone more in the mold of Kasich or whatever. And Feinstein and the Democratic nominee for governor will almost certainly carry it as well in 2018.

[Gass3268]

Hard to say.  I think Orange County Whites who defected to Clinton (a minority of OC Whites, let's remember) will likely remain Republican in future Presidential AND downballot races.  In other words, I think the vast, vast majority of "Romney-Clinton Whites" across the nation will retain the Romney part of their political identity rather than the Clinton part.

With the damage that Trump is doing to the Republican brand, doubtful.

[RINO Tom]

Hard to say.  I think Orange County Whites who defected to Clinton (a minority of OC Whites, let's remember) will likely remain Republican in future Presidential AND downballot races.  In other words, I think the vast, vast majority of "Romney-Clinton Whites" across the nation will retain the Romney part of their political identity rather than the Clinton part.

With the damage that Trump is doing to the Republican brand, doubtful.

Believe what you'd like.

[RINO Tom]

Definitely not, even if the GOP nominee in 2024 is someone more in the mold of Kasich or whatever. And Feinstein and the Democratic nominee for governor will almost certainly carry it as well in 2018.

What makes you think Dianne Feinstein would "almost certainly carry" it in 2018?  She lost it by 7 points in 2012 vs. a weak GOP nominee while winning the statewide race by 23 points...  I get you think that Romney-Clinton voters have some somewhat prominent future in the Democratic coalition (strongly disagree, but I digress), but that's a HUGE difference between her last re-election.

[Virginiá]

Whether or not the GOP keeps Orange County in its column depends entirely, IMO, on whether or not they can make serious inroads with affluent Asians, which I view as a must.

Wouldn't it take more than just making inroads with affluent Asians? As it stands now, it's easy to see OC getting more Democratic at least in the near future, which could mean Republicans would have to make up a double digit deficit. And then you'd have to ask, what does "keep in their column" mean? Winning it by a few points, or large, comfortable wins?

Any strategy here would have to hold down whites while making inroads with Asians and Hispanic voters, no?

[MT Treasurer]

Definitely not, even if the GOP nominee in 2024 is someone more in the mold of Kasich or whatever. And Feinstein and the Democratic nominee for governor will almost certainly carry it as well in 2018.

What makes you think Dianne Feinstein would "almost certainly carry" it in 2018?  She lost it by 7 points in 2012 vs. a weak GOP nominee while winning the statewide race by 23 points...  I get you think that Romney-Clinton voters have some somewhat prominent future in the Democratic coalition (strongly disagree, but I digress), but that's a HUGE difference between her last re-election.

1.) Republicans aren't really going to seriously contest either race, plus the GOP bench isn't the strongest and almost non-existent at this point. I'm not even sure whether a Republican will advance to the runoff in the gubernatorial race. They'll focus on the competitive House races.
2.) Democrats did incredibly well in CA even in 2014, and I don't see any reason why they would do worse in 2018. Feinstein is a very popular Senator and making up a 100,000 vote deficit with such unfavorable demographics in a year that likely isn't going to be good for CA Republicans seems like an uphill battle, if you ask me.
3.) It's usually only a question of time until the trend/lean of a state/county at the federal level starts to bleed into statewide races as well. See also: AR, KY, VA.

If this were a district like GA-06 or TX-32, I would expect Republicans to do relatively well down-ballot, but Orange? Forget about it.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Definitely not, even if the GOP nominee in 2024 is someone more in the mold of Kasich or whatever. And Feinstein and the Democratic nominee for governor will almost certainly carry it as well in 2018.

What makes you think Dianne Feinstein would "almost certainly carry" it in 2018?  She lost it by 7 points in 2012 vs. a weak GOP nominee while winning the statewide race by 23 points...  I get you think that Romney-Clinton voters have some somewhat prominent future in the Democratic coalition (strongly disagree, but I digress), but that's a HUGE difference between her last re-election.[/b

1.) Republicans aren't really going to seriously contest either race, plus the GOP bench isn't the strongest and almost non-existent at this point. I'm not even sure whether a Republican will advance to the runoff in the gubernatorial race. They'll focus on the competitive House races.
2.) Democrats did incredibly well in CA even in 2014, and I don't see any reason why they would do worse in 2018. Feinstein is a very popular Senator and making up a 100,000 vote deficit with such unfavorable demographics in a year that likely isn't going to be good for CA Republicans seems like an uphill battle, if you ask me.
3.) It's usually only a question of time until the trend/lean of a state/county at the federal level starts to bleed into statewide races as well. See also: AR, KY, VA.

If this were a district like GA-06 or TX-32, I would expect Republicans to do relatively well down-ballot, but Orange? Forget about it.

Exactly what I think will most likely happen. Well-educated and diverse suburbs outside the south were already showing signs of trending D before 2016. Obama only lost the OC Republican districts by a few points, while Romney won TX-07, TX-32, GA-06, and GA-07 by over 20 points. I suspect all of them will eventually become D-leaning at all levels, but places like OC are more hospitable to Ds than southern suburbs.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

My belief in this case has always been that the upset was in this county voting for Republicans so decisively and so consistently in the first place, and that Hillary Clinton winning the county should not be a surprise.

Really the surprise in my opinion is the Bush 92, Dole 96, Bush 00, Bush 04, McCain 08, and Romney 12 votes in Orange County, California.  As a heavily urban county with very diverse demographics, its puzzling how Republicans ran up a 19 election streak.

[AN63093]

My belief in this case has always been that the upset was in this county voting for Republicans so decisively and so consistently in the first place, and that Hillary Clinton winning the county should not be a surprise.

Really the surprise in my opinion is the Bush 92, Dole 96, Bush 00, Bush 04, McCain 08, and Romney 12 votes in Orange County, California.  As a heavily urban county with very diverse demographics, its puzzling how Republicans ran up a 19 election streak.

Well, it's because even though Orange has been relatively diverse for decades, the whites were a) still a majority, and b) very Republican.  As anyone from CA will tell you, OC whites are very different than say, Bay Area whites.  They don't vote like whites do in SF; never have, and probably never will.  So the Dems weren't going to win it by flipping whites, they needed the white population to go under 50%, which has now happened, and voila- it flipped.

Anyways, back to the OP- yes, Orange may return to the GOP in the future, but it will take a realignment.

Under the current alignment, no, Orange is not winnable for the GOP.

How likely that realignment is?  Another question entirely, and not one I'm going to go into here since I've already written at length about this in the realignment threads.  But suffice to say, I actually think we're stuck with the current party system for some time.

[AN63093]

Well Timmy, I think (correct me if I'm wrong here), that we're in agreement that some type of catastrophic event has to occur to trigger the realignment, right?

Why do you think this is more likely with Trump than it would've been with Kasich?

Cause love him or hate him, no matter what you think about Trump's demeanor and personality, the reality is.. just not a lot has happened in this presidency so far.  No major legislation.  No catastrophic events.  Outside of the rotating weekly twitter-outrage story du jour... life, the economy, and everything else is just sorta chugging along.

[I’m not Stu]

In a hypothetical D vs. D Senate runoff between Feinstein and 311 singer Nick Hexum (who would be a lock to win Mendocino, Humboldt, and Santa Cruz counties), would Feinstein or Hexum win Orange County?

[krazen1211]

If this were a district like GA-06 or TX-32, I would expect Republicans to do relatively well down-ballot, but Orange? Forget about it.

GA-06 and TX-32 can simply be gerrymandered too.