What is the most elastic state in the country?
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  What is the most elastic state in the country?
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Author Topic: What is the most elastic state in the country?  (Read 3650 times)
Don Vito Corleone
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« on: August 29, 2017, 10:00:13 PM »

I'd say Iowa.
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« Reply #1 on: August 29, 2017, 10:19:32 PM »

Most: Maine
Least: Mississippi
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AN63093
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« Reply #2 on: August 29, 2017, 11:19:03 PM »
« Edited: August 29, 2017, 11:22:20 PM by AN63093 »

Well, first we'd have to differentiate between "elastic states" and "swing states."  

You can have states that are very elastic because they have lots of swing voters (and these states will typically swing D/R, back and forth every election.. by swing I mean, margin, not who wins the state), but the swing voters are always outnumbered by partisan D/Rs.  So the state is an elastic state but not a swing state and ends up being "safe D/R."  Maybe NH or RI is a good example of this.  WV is also a state that I suspect is very elastic, especially how quick and dramatic it trended R, but since too many people have become partisan Rs there, it's a safe R state for now.

And then you have states that are swing states, but are very polarized, with few swing voters, and its just a turnout battle.  NC is probably the classic example of this.  These are swing states but not elastic states.

That category of elastic AND swing states is what I suspect you're asking about- and that's a hard category to pin down.  When 538 did an article about this years back, it included these: CO, IA, NH, NM, WI.

Some of those are suspect, and even though the article is old, they were suspect even at the time.  NH is elastic, but not a swing state.  WI is actually sorta polarized.  NM is somewhat elastic, but there are way too many Dems there, so it's a "safe D elastic state."  CO was probably once a swing/elastic state, but no longer.  IA was also once this way, but I'm not sure it is anymore either.

Of the candidates that are both swing AND elastic- I'd say ME is the only really obvious pick.  RI and AK might be in 10 years, but aren't yet.  MT could be a future one too.

Maybe NV and AZ are now, or are close to it.  Especially if AZ trends/swings back R in 2020, (which I suspect it will, even if not by very much), it probably would belong in the "swing and elastic" category of states.
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Technocracy Timmy
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« Reply #3 on: August 29, 2017, 11:42:38 PM »

Aren't smaller states generally more prone to bigger shifts and swings?
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AN63093
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« Reply #4 on: August 29, 2017, 11:59:39 PM »

Based on 538's list, they are all smaller states.  Though I disagree with where they placed states on their chart, I would agree that elastic states would tend to be smaller.

Maybe FL is the 'most elastic' of the large states?
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Technocracy Timmy
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« Reply #5 on: August 30, 2017, 12:24:47 AM »

Looking at non-incumbent years (2000, 2008, 2016), North Dakota swung back and forth quite a bit.

2000: swung 21 points R
2008: swung 19 points D
2016: swung 16 points R
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #6 on: August 30, 2017, 11:34:25 AM »

ME and the Dakotas.
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #7 on: August 30, 2017, 12:19:36 PM »

Iowa
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twenty42
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« Reply #8 on: August 30, 2017, 06:11:56 PM »
« Edited: August 30, 2017, 06:14:30 PM by twenty42 »

Utah, without a doubt. It swings wildly every four years, despite remaining a generally safe R state. Take a look at how it has swung over the past fourteen elections...

1964: 19.4%
1968: 29.2%
1972: 21.8%
1976: 12.5%
1980: 23.5%
1984: 2.4%
1988: 15.7%
1992: 18%
1996: 5%
2000: 19.4%
2004: 5.1%
2008: 17.6%
2012: 19.9%
2016: 30%

It's a good example of a state that is very sensitive to national trends (except for 1984 and 1996), but also a total non-swing state.
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TML
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« Reply #9 on: August 30, 2017, 09:45:46 PM »

I'd say Montana is pretty elastic: it can go from Republican blowout of 20+% (in close elections) to winnable by Democrats (in Democratic blowouts).
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AN63093
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« Reply #10 on: August 30, 2017, 11:03:40 PM »

Ah, I forgot about ND and UT.  Good points, TT and T42.  Those are great picks for "elastic but not swing" states.
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Don Vito Corleone
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« Reply #11 on: August 31, 2017, 03:25:05 AM »

Ah, I forgot about ND and UT.  Good points, TT and T42.  Those are great picks for "elastic but not swing" states.
WV would be another example.
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Don Vito Corleone
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« Reply #12 on: August 31, 2017, 03:27:56 AM »

Well, first we'd have to differentiate between "elastic states" and "swing states."  

You can have states that are very elastic because they have lots of swing voters (and these states will typically swing D/R, back and forth every election.. by swing I mean, margin, not who wins the state), but the swing voters are always outnumbered by partisan D/Rs.  So the state is an elastic state but not a swing state and ends up being "safe D/R."  Maybe NH or RI is a good example of this.  WV is also a state that I suspect is very elastic, especially how quick and dramatic it trended R, but since too many people have become partisan Rs there, it's a safe R state for now.

And then you have states that are swing states, but are very polarized, with few swing voters, and its just a turnout battle.  NC is probably the classic example of this.  These are swing states but not elastic states.

That category of elastic AND swing states is what I suspect you're asking about- and that's a hard category to pin down.  When 538 did an article about this years back, it included these: CO, IA, NH, NM, WI.

Some of those are suspect, and even though the article is old, they were suspect even at the time.  NH is elastic, but not a swing state.  WI is actually sorta polarized.  NM is somewhat elastic, but there are way too many Dems there, so it's a "safe D elastic state."  CO was probably once a swing/elastic state, but no longer.  IA was also once this way, but I'm not sure it is anymore either.

Of the candidates that are both swing AND elastic- I'd say ME is the only really obvious pick.  RI and AK might be in 10 years, but aren't yet.  MT could be a future one too.

Maybe NV and AZ are now, or are close to it.  Especially if AZ trends/swings back R in 2020, (which I suspect it will, even if not by very much), it probably would belong in the "swing and elastic" category of states.
No, I mean the most elastic states, swing state or not (so you could say North Dakota or Montana or West Virginia or Maine for most elastic state, and it would be an acceptable answer even though none of them are swing states).
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #13 on: September 29, 2017, 03:24:12 AM »

I'd say WV. Between 1996 and 2016 it swung from 51% Dem to 68% GOP. And it's more Dem at the state level (or has been in recent years). However, I doubt Dems will win the state ever again in a presidential election.

Otherwise: IA and OH.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #14 on: September 29, 2017, 10:00:01 AM »

Based on 538's list, they are all smaller states.  Though I disagree with where they placed states on their chart, I would agree that elastic states would tend to be smaller.

Maybe FL is the 'most elastic' of the large states?

FL would be one of the least elastic states in the whole country, both parties have very high floors in FL.   You almost never even see down ballot races go much below 46% in either party, except maybe for Bill Nelson.
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Spark
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« Reply #15 on: October 01, 2017, 12:15:04 PM »

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Xing
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« Reply #16 on: October 01, 2017, 12:56:38 PM »

Alaska and Maine come to mind.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #17 on: October 01, 2017, 12:58:42 PM »

It's not Iowa.  It was one of the states closest to the national PV each time 1992-2012, so it didn't swing that much before 2016.

The answer is probably Hawaii or Maine. 
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MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #18 on: October 02, 2017, 10:10:50 AM »

Maine. If you admit to voting straight-ticket in certain parts of this state they look at you funny.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #19 on: October 04, 2017, 09:13:00 AM »

Based on 538's list, they are all smaller states.  Though I disagree with where they placed states on their chart, I would agree that elastic states would tend to be smaller.

Maybe FL is the 'most elastic' of the large states?

FL would be one of the least elastic states in the whole country, both parties have very high floors in FL.   You almost never even see down ballot races go much below 46% in either party, except maybe for Bill Nelson.

Agreed, all FL races on federal and state levels were close except Bill Nelson so far. There is a 45/46% floor for both sides. The most elastic big state is probably OH.
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Bismarck
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« Reply #20 on: October 18, 2017, 12:11:50 PM »

Mostly states that are demographically homogenous and aren't especially polarized or hardcore one way or the other. Maine, Iowa, the Dakotas, Montana, and maybe Alaska. Basically northern rural white states.
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wxtransit
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« Reply #21 on: November 15, 2017, 09:19:10 PM »

Utah, without a doubt. It swings wildly every four years, despite remaining a generally safe R state. Take a look at how it has swung over the past fourteen elections...

1964: 19.4%
1968: 29.2%
1972: 21.8%
1976: 12.5%
1980: 23.5%
1984: 2.4%
1988: 15.7%
1992: 18%
1996: 5%
2000: 19.4%
2004: 5.1%
2008: 17.6%
2012: 19.9%
2016: 30%

It's a good example of a state that is very sensitive to national trends (except for 1984 and 1996), but also a total non-swing state.

A good portion of 2016's trend, however, was due to McMullin.
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Pennsylvania Deplorable
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« Reply #22 on: November 15, 2017, 11:41:26 PM »

MT, ME, AK, UT, IA and MI come to mind.
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