Which hurt Trump more? C'ville or Harvey?

[Tekken_Guy]

Which of these two events this past month did more damage to Trump?

[adrac]

In terms of long-term structural damage to his political fortunes, Charlottesville absolutely.

[GGover]

Certainly Charlottesville.

I would expect him to benefit slightly from Harvey.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Charlottesville of course. Trump wasn't a disaster with Harvey, but he didn't do anything that would improve the opinion of people who already don't like him.

[HisGrace]

Charlottesville didn't really hurt him that much aside from possibly solidifying some of his negatives. Don't know why Harvey would hurt him at all.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Outside of a Katrina-level display of incompetence, I'm not sure how Harvey would hurt him. I guess I'm somewhat surprised he hasn't improved his numbers even a tad during Harvey. Not since......Charlottesville.

[pbrower2a]

The messy response to Charlottesville has soiled his reputation as little else could. He equated most Americans with people that they have most cause to despise and have little cause for empathy. We know what Nazis and Kluxists are: exponents of evil.

[UncleSam]

Natural disasters and external threats / attacks are the two universal things that will almost always help the sitting government (as long as they deal with it properly, unlike Katrina). Of course whether or not an event hurt or helped President Trump is hardly important honestly, and I'm a bit tired of reading threads about whether x or y event that is way bigger or more meaningful will have x or y impact on the president. There is a fixation of tribal politics on both sides that is a disease when it comes before people losing their homes to flooding.

[pbrower2a]

I devoutly wish for devastating hurricanes to slam to into the Atlantic seaboard of the United States, one after the other, until the country rejects their monstrous President.

1. A plurality of Americans rejected Donald Trump, 48-46, in the election. Donald Trump simply won the right votes.

2. Approval polls of the President are now showing approval in the mid-30s and disapproval near 60 nationwide.

3.  Disapproval in some states that he won is high enough that he could never win those states again -- at the least, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. 

DEM stands for how many electoral votes a Democrat would get before carrying a state or district, REP what the Republican nominee (I now assume Trump) would get, the disapproval rating for Trump in the most recent polling data (I estimate 80 for Dee Cee), ΔEV for the number of votes that the Democratic nominee would get if the states to the right of that column would get if winning the states to the right, and STATES for the state or district that would go for the Democratic nominee (maybe more precisely, against Trump).


DEM  REP  DIS ΔEV  STATES
000  538   80   03      DC
003  535   71   58      CA VT
061  477   66   11      MA
072  466   65   14      NJ
086  452   64   10      MD
096  442   62   29      NY 
125  413   61   13      VA
138  400   59   24      CT HI WA
161  377   58   20      IL
181  357   57   45      CO MI MN WI
222  312   56   15      DE NM OR
241  297   55   32      ME* NH PA RI TIPPING POINT/ZONE
273  265   54   11      AZ
284  254   53   06      NV
290  248   52   53      FL IA OH
343  195   51   36      TX
381  157   50   37      GA NC UT
418  120   48   16      IN WV
434  104   47   06      AR
440  098   46   19      MS MO MT
459  079   44   12      ND SC
471  067   43   16      LA NE* SD
487  051   42   29      ID KS KY TN
516  022   39   22      AL OK WY
538  000

*Maine and Nebraska divide their electoral votes.

4. It is worth remembering that disapproval is 50% or more in some states (Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina) that President Trump won -- and those three states are vulnerable to hurricanes. The Greater Philadelphia area is the part of Pennsylvania that most clearly rejected the vile demagogue, and it is the part of the state most vulnerable to a hurricane. Except for a portion of Maine well shielded from hurricanes, the rest of America from the Virginia-North Carolina wisely rejected Donald Trump.

5. It is really bad taste to wish for evil to befall a nation because of a fluke in the political system. Maybe the plagues of Egypt might have been appropriate upon Nazi Germany, where people fell for the political leader who to this day most resembles Satan in his evil. The Germans were much more culpable than the Egyptians for the nastiness of their system. Were I God, I might have afflicted the first-born sons of gentiles in Germany; I would have dried up the rivers of Germany in a drought and then inflicted horrible blizzards; I would have taken command of the German radio frequently, stifling the speeches of Hitler and his gang and replacing them with warnings of greater horrors to be ended by letting My people (the Jews) go. At some point I might have solved the problem by transmuting a lead object in the Kroll Opera House (functioning in place of the Reichstag) during a speech of Hitler into U-235 and detonating it as an atomic bomb that destroys Hitler and most of his fellow criminals and a collection of high-ranking flunkies...

But that is extreme, and I am obviously not God. 




 

[America Needs R'hllor]

Certainly Charlottesville.

I would expect him to benefit slightly from Harvey.

[Holmes]

Yeah, Charlottesville. He did some stupid things with Harvey but he didn't sh**t the bed, so there won't be any movement there. And most people will have forgotten about Harvey within a month or two. Charlottesville will be talked about for a good while, though.

[Bismarck]

The hurricane response was good. The media couldn't find anything wrong with it so they had to resort to attacking Melania's shoes. C'ville was idiotic.

[Strudelcutie4427]

In a screwed up way, Harvey brought us together at a time when tensions were running high. Down in TX you don't see race, you don't see parties, you just see neighbor helping neighbor, and they're getting stuff done. With antifa and the alt right you see the worst America has to offer. I'm the wake of Harvey, you see the best America has to offer

[Holmes]

Down in TX you don't see race

What kind of white nonesense is this

[Strudelcutie4427]

Down in TX you don't see race

What kind of white nonesense is this

Have you seen any of the coverage of Harvey?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Charlottesville- his response to Harvey wasn't particularly bad, while his response to Charlottesville was quite disturbing.

[Nhoj]

The only thing that has perhaps hurt him in relation to harvey was his Friday night news dump of pardoning arpaio and Trans ban.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Trump handled Harvey perfectly. I don't know what the complaints are about?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

While Trump's actions during Harvey are mediocre at best and is all for show, it will never be as bad as his response to Charlottesville. Possibly one of the biggest blunders of a president in history.

[TJ in Oregon]

I guess Harvey since it will likely have no effect and the Charlottesville saga undeniably helped him.

[Dr. Arch]

Trump handled Harvey perfectly. I don't know what the complaints are about?

lmao, "perfectly"

[Strudelcutie4427]

While Trump's actions during Harvey are mediocre at best and is all for show, it will never be as bad as his response to Charlottesville. Possibly one of the biggest blunders of a president in history.

More so than Katrina, running guns to the cartels, or getting a blowie in the Oval Office?

[Badger]

I guess Harvey since it will likely have no effect and the Charlottesville saga undeniably helped him.

WTF?

[Badger]

While Trump's actions during Harvey are mediocre at best and is all for show, it will never be as bad as his response to Charlottesville. Possibly one of the biggest blunders of a president in history.

More so than Katrina, running guns to the cartels, or getting a blowie in the Oval Office?

Yes worse than even Katrina, never proven although Iran-Contra runs in the same category of "greatest blunders" (though arguably even worse), and not even remotely in the same universe as the POTUS overtly supporting the participants of a neo-Nazi march.

[TJ in Oregon]

I guess Harvey since it will likely have no effect and the Charlottesville saga undeniably helped him.

WTF?

Look at his job approval numbers from that period:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html

There is a discernible bounce in his favor corresponding to Charlottesville. I wouldn't have guessed it either given what happened and the outcry, but anecdotally, the swingable voters I know seemed more concerned with statues than an actual resurgence of white supremacists.