Florida and the Trump Cuban policy

[Sir Mohamed]

It's nothing new that Cuban Americans, which are a substantial part of the the Sunshine State's electorate, tend more towards the GOP and favor a harsh policy towards the Castro regime. Might Trump's partly reversal of the Cuban Thaw affect in some way FL's vote and give Trump (or Pence) an advantage? I think it's hard to predict. On one hand, the Cuban Americans are already more GOP, but on the other hand FL is always very close and just a minor swing could decide the outcome. While turnout and mobilization is still a factor to consider as well. Thoughts on this?

[TheSaint250]

I believe that the older Cubans that vote GOP were against Obama's thaw, so I don't think this will do much

[Lord Admirale]

This is something that I feared from Obama thawing relations with Cuba, it could cause Floridian Latinos (mostly of Cuban descent) to drift further to the GOP.

[Devils30]

Cubans trended sharply D even in 2016, look at Dade county. Trump did terribly there but won Florida because of his big margins in formerly close white working class areas like Volusia, Flagler, Pasco.

[Sir Mohamed]

Cubans trended sharply D even in 2016, look at Dade county. Trump did terribly there but won Florida because of his big margins in formerly close white working class areas like Volusia, Flagler, Pasco.

Correct, but some of them just were embrassed of the Trumpster. Rubio won his race by a decent margin. If some of these Clinton/Rubio voters return to the GOP, especially if Pence is the candidate, and Dems can't significatly increase their number of voters through a higher turnout, the GOP is somewhat favored to take these pivotal 29 electoral votes again. Even though I still believe that the Dem's path to 270 is somewhat easier without FL than for the GOP.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Cubans trended sharply D even in 2016, look at Dade county. Trump did terribly there but won Florida because of his big margins in formerly close white working class areas like Volusia, Flagler, Pasco.

[Devils30]

2018 is going to be a wipeout in Miami for the GOP like 2014 was for Dems in West Virginia. Rubio also did well in Miami because Murphy ran a completely ghost campaign.

[Sumner 1868]

Cubans trended sharply D even in 2016, look at Dade county. Trump did terribly there but won Florida because of his big margins in formerly close white working class areas like Volusia, Flagler, Pasco.

Cubans aren't the only Latin group in Miami, however. It's more likely that any gains he made with Cubans were small and therefore cancelled out by other voters.