WV-03 elimination 2022: Who gets the seat that isn't McKinley's?

[I’m not Stu]

When WV-03 is eliminated, who get's the seat that doesn't belong to David McKinley? Alex Mooney and Evan Jenkins' 2018 replacement will probably run against each other in 2022.

[McGovernForPrez]

RICHARD OJEDA!!!

[I’m not Stu]

Mooney because he is more entrenched than Jenkins' replacement.

[Figueira]

It depends on who the replacement is, and how the legislature feels about that person.

It's also possible that McKinley retires.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

McKinley will be 75 in 2022. While that isn't extremely old for the House I think he'd decide to call it quits and let Mooney run in the new WV-01.

[I’m not Stu]

McKinley will be 75 in 2022. While that isn't extremely old for the House I think he'd decide to call it quits and let Mooney run in the new WV-01.

Or the new WV-02 if Jenkins' current district is renamed WV-01. Districts sometimes get renamed after redistricting.

[Heisenberg]

McKinley will be 75 in 2022. While that isn't extremely old for the House I think he'd decide call it quits and let Mooney run in the new WV-01.

He doesn't like Mooney, I don't think. Mooney is not well-liked at all by the WV GOP, and he always underperforms. He was also very unliked in Maryland (his old state), and lost a reddish-purple (non-Atlas colors) seat in 2010. He has also previously attended the RNC as a Maryland delegate, and carpetbagged with the sole purpose of running for WV-02.

RICHARD OJEDA!!!

Not only do I not expect Democrats to flip that seat, but first, Ojeda has to make it out of the primary against Huntington Mayor Steve Williams, who seems to now be the frontrunner and preferred by many Democrats.

[Adam Griffin]

What I firmly expect will happen in 2021 is that the WV GOP will splice the state down the middle; creating a "west West Virginia" district and a "east West Virginia" district. Dividing it by culture/the way it would make sense could possibly leave the southern portion of the state capable of voting for a Democrat under the right circumstances, and I'm sure they won't allow that.

[Kamala]

What I firmly expect will happen in 2021 is that the WV GOP will splice the state down the middle; creating a "west West Virginia" district and a "east West Virginia" district. Dividing it by culture/the way it would make sense could possibly leave the southern portion of the state capable of voting for a Democrat under the right circumstances, and I'm sure they won't allow that.

Even today's WV-02 makes zero sense.

Ideally, WV-03 would remain like it is, with WV-01 and WV-02 being east/west districts above WV-03.

[I’m not Stu]

Steve Williams might run.

[Meatball Ron]

McKinley will be 75 in 2022. While that isn't extremely old for the House I think he'd decide call it quits and let Mooney run in the new WV-01.

He doesn't like Mooney, I don't think. Mooney is not well-liked at all by the WV GOP, and he always underperforms. He was also very unliked in Maryland (his old state), and lost a reddish-purple (non-Atlas colors) seat in 2010. He has also previously attended the RNC as a Maryland delegate, and carpetbagged with the sole purpose of running for WV-02.

Yeah, Mooney is a total weirdo

[Brittain33]

Until I looked at the 1992 redistricting I did not appreciate how much the current weird map resulted from a "least change" approach to existing districts while slicing up WV-2 after WV lost a seat.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Virginia%27s_congressional_districts

The boundary between the northern and central districts is the same, and the southern district took from the central district the minimum needed to allow the central district to take up the whole eastern panhandle with a contiguity.

[PragmaticPopulist]

I have no idea who gets the southern WV seat which will likely be named "WV-02". If it's a good year for D's I could even see a D pull an upset, since WV Dems still have a bench in southern WV capable of outrunning the top of the ticket by a lot.

Most likely though, the contest will be in the R primary where Jenkins' replacement and Mooney face off. I'm placing my bet on Jenkins' replacement because Mooney has a lot of baggage. He always seems to underperform statewide Republicans in WV-02.